'more Than 400 Retailers' To Collapse Within Months

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...hs-1220216.html

Retail insolvencies are expected to soar over the next four months and hit the entire economy, as it emerged that retail footfall tumbled in December – despite a late surge in shoppers chasing bargains during the last week.

Experian forecasts 440 retailers will collapse before the end of April, compared to 367 for the same period in 2008. The data specialist said it expects retail insolvencies to jump by a further 20 per cent to 1,400 next year, as conditions on the high street deteriorate.

In December, visits to shops fell by 3.1 per cent compared with the same month in 2008, despite a 12.8 per cent jump in the last week as consumers took advantage of massive discounting and the extra shopping days before Christmas Day, according to Experian.

Jonathan de Mello, the director of retail consultancy at Experian, said: "The boost in numbers was driven by massive unprecedented discounting all at the expense of retailer margins."

The grim outlook came as PricewaterhouseCoopers revealed 42 per cent of UK consumers plan to spend less in the January sales than they did in the same month in 2008. The accountancy firm said 3 in 10 consumers are concerned about their ability to pay future debts and 16 per cent are struggling to repay current debts.

Experian estimates that one in 10 shops will remain empty in 2009 with some high streets in smaller market towns suffering far higher vacancy rates. The current proportion of vacant units is 7 per cent.

However from last year there will be a big difference in the size of companies going under as, last year I would suspect most retail failures would be small family businesses, this year it will be the big boys going under.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...hs-1220216.html

However from last year there will be a big difference in the size of companies going under as, last year I would suspect most retail failures would be small family businesses, this year it will be the big boys going under.

well you can double that number for a start then.

People really have no idead what's coming their way in 2009.

Supermarkets & nationalised banks to rule the world.

Edited January 1, 2009 by grumpy-old-man-returns

[LuckyOne]

well you can double that number for a start then.

People really have no idead what's coming their way in 2009.

Supermarkets & nationalised banks to rule the world.

It took skill, bravery and foresight to publicly call a bubble in house prices in 2003-2007 which the early members of this site (I am not one of them) did.

It takes stupidity and irrational hope to think that 2009 is not going to be cataclysmic.

[interestrateripoff]

It takes stupidity and irrational hope to think that 2009 is not going to be cataclysmic.

No that takes Ponzi Brown.

[darwin]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...hs-1220216.html

However from last year there will be a big difference in the size of companies going under as, last year I would suspect most retail failures would be small family businesses, this year it will be the big boys going under.

I think many of them deserve to go under, quite frankly. Too many have lost sight of the fact that you must provide good service.

Shops are really just glorified factory outlets. If they're not creating a reason to buy from them rather than someone else they are bound to run the risk of making themselves redundant.

[Abstra]

I think many of them deserve to go under, quite frankly. Too many have lost sight of the fact that you must provide good service.

Shops are really just glorified factory outlets. If they're not creating a reason to buy from them rather than someone else they are bound to run the risk of making themselves redundant.

Are you mad Darwin. Perhaps rental on retail outlets should be aggresively dropped to keep the competition going. The owners have been pulling money out of them with no work input for 100 years or more. Can you not see a world with only two or three retail outlets for everything all in one beautifull out of town place called ASDA, Tesco's or Sainsbury's.

[DeepLurker]

I think many of them deserve to go under, quite frankly. Too many have lost sight of the fact that you must provide good service.

Shops are really just glorified factory outlets. If they're not creating a reason to buy from them rather than someone else they are bound to run the risk of making themselves redundant.

I guess that a lot of retailers are being crucified by online sales.

Take for example Virgin Megastore: what exactly did the brick-and-mortar store provide, compared to buying online? Where was the added-value?

Some stores seem to get it. Waterstones is more expensive than online, but I like the experience: comfortable shop, soothing music played at low levels, friendly staff. So they get my custom.

[singlemalt]

Yep. Party over...hangover wearing off.....reality setting in.

[Guest LongBlackKilt]

well you can double that number for a start then.

People really have no idead what's coming their way in 2009.

Supermarkets & nationalised banks to rule the world.

Yup, there's a "Time's Arrow" feel about things as we head back to an East European future.

With the dominant ideology remaining Managerialism rather than Marxism-Leninism.

[shippers]

I guess that a lot of retailers are being crucified by online sales.

Take for example Virgin Megastore: what exactly did the brick-and-mortar store provide, compared to buying online? Where was the added-value?

Some stores seem to get it. Waterstones is more expensive than online, but I like the experience: comfortable shop, soothing music played at low levels, friendly staff. So they get my custom.

I think it's a difference in the goods sold.

You hardly need to browse your regular bulk food shopping, but you may want to check out the contents of a book or do a comparison. I think book retailers win out too cause if you do like browsing bookshops and find something you like then you're likely to buy it there and then. I think this will continue until electronic books with high res colour screens really catch on, with say the ability to browse and use a book for a 24 hour limit.

I personally think the future of retail will be a return of a local grocer, supplying high quality locally grown veg and meat.

Everything else will be ordered online and delivered from distribution centres. There might be demonstration "hypermarkets" for you to check out products before you submit a purchase request, but these will tend to be bulky items that you have delivered anyway. Smaller items will just be simulated to an extent that you can trust the simulation to buy the product.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

Yup, there's a "Time's Arrow" feel about things as we head back to an East European future.

With the dominant ideology remaining Managerialism rather than Marxism-Leninism.

nicely put.

[The Masked Tulip]

What do they mean by "retailer"? Do they mean small corner shops kind of thing - in which case I would have thought thousands of them would be at risk?

If they mean bigger retail shops on the High Street then I couldn't name 400 retailers. In fact, several of the shops, such as Zavi, going bust in recent days totally surprised me because I had never heard of several of them.

[Nicholas Cage]

Yep. Party over...hangover wearing off.....reality setting in.

I happen to know the Labour government have a bottle of Quantative Easing in the drinks cupboard. It's

powerful stuff with a bad hangover but the Party never stops.

[ralphmalph]

Just to add a little perspective the report states that current vacancy rates in the high street is 7% and this is going to rise to 1 in 10 or 10%.

Lets get real if we are going to have the most serious recession ever and it is going to be back tothird world eastern europe stuff then I personally would expect vacancy rates of 30% plus.

The fact that the vacancy rate is just going to rise by 3% does not imply to me that it is even going to be a serious downturn.

Why McDoomed is borrowing 500 Billion quid and paying fortunes to his army of public servants who will live the life of riley whilst the productive workers will all worry about employment.

2009 is not the year to be worried as this will bouy the economy (falsely in my view).

If the world economy does not pick up by the end of next year or early 2010 then that is the time to be really worried.

2010 2011 you could be seeing the biggest bankruptcy of all time - UK PLC.

If it happens I hope the british people have the courage and strength to storm parliment and start the lynching.

[South Lorne]

What do they mean by "retailer"? Do they mean small corner shops kind of thing - in which case I would have thought thousands of them would be at risk?

If they mean bigger retail shops on the High Street then I couldn't name 400 retailers. In fact, several of the shops, such as Zavi, going bust in recent days totally surprised me because I had never heard of several of them.

...yeah Zavi obviously had no savvy....the clever guy here was Branson getting out of an outlet where it's days were numbered due to the march of on-line shopping and downloads.....

Edited January 1, 2009 by South Lorne

[piece of paper]

What do they mean by "retailer"? Do they mean small corner shops kind of thing - in which case I would have thought thousands of them would be at risk?

If they mean bigger retail shops on the High Street then I couldn't name 400 retailers. In fact, several of the shops, such as Zavi, going bust in recent days totally surprised me because I had never heard of several of them.

That's Wales for you.

p-o-p

[The Masked Tulip]

That's Wales for you.

p-o-p

I think you are right. It is a starting indicator of just how little Wales benefited from the 10 year boom. I don't think it truly experienced the same boom as other parts of the UK other than in MEW debt as a result of inflated house prices.

Seeing shops go bust now that never existed in most parts of Wales is indeed an indicator of this.

[Jadoube]

What do they mean by "retailer"? Do they mean small corner shops kind of thing - in which case I would have thought thousands of them would be at risk?

If they mean bigger retail shops on the High Street then I couldn't name 400 retailers. In fact, several of the shops, such as Zavi, going bust in recent days totally surprised me because I had never heard of several of them.

The question is how many branches do these 400 retailers have, 400 or 40,000? Without knowing how big they are the significance of the statement from Experian seems relatively worthless - good PR for them though.

Experian data sources include

Yell - those people who put their phone number in yellow pages in a 'retail' category. Stoping doing so does not = gone bust.

Goad - plans of 1000+ shopping centres, mainly populated by multiples but with some indpendents. Maps updated anything from 3 monthly to 3 yearly depending upon the size of the centre.

There are lots more companies than you think, especially since 'retailer' covers a multitude of sins. For example (a non-Experian source) see:

The Retail Directory 2009 – Hardcopy edition

Retail directory

The traditional book format still exists and provides all the quality contacts you have come to expect from this publication. Over 6,000 companies and 30,000 contacts are listed in the book. 500 of the top European companies are also included.

Coverage includes:

* Multiple retailers

* Department stores

* Major European Retailers

* Home Shopping

* Cash and Carries, wholesalers and symbol buying groups

* Shopping Centre Factory outlets and airport/railway shopping

* Town Centre Managers

* Trade Associations

* Journals

[Jadoube]

I think it's a difference in the goods sold.

You hardly need to browse your regular bulk food shopping, but you may want to check out the contents of a book or do a comparison. I think book retailers win out too cause if you do like browsing bookshops and find something you like then you're likely to buy it there and then. I think this will continue until electronic books with high res colour screens really catch on, with say the ability to browse and use a book for a 24 hour limit.

I personally think the future of retail will be a return of a local grocer, supplying high quality locally grown veg and meat.

Everything else will be ordered online and delivered from distribution centres. There might be demonstration "hypermarkets" for you to check out products before you submit a purchase request, but these will tend to be bulky items that you have delivered anyway. Smaller items will just be simulated to an extent that you can trust the simulation to buy the product.

I get my high quality locally grown fruit, veg and meat delivered as part of an online order.

Cheaper than the supermarkets.

[piece of paper]

I think you are right. It is a starting indicator of just how little Wales benefited from the 10 year boom. I don't think it truly experienced the same boom as other parts of the UK other than in MEW debt as a result of inflated house prices.

Seeing shops go bust now that never existed in most parts of Wales is indeed an indicator of this.

Consider Wales to be blessed.

p-o-p

[South Lorne]

....failures in other sectors are forecast to be more prominent than retail...being less visible and not striking High Steet icons possibly will make them less newsworthy....

The number of UK business failures is predicted to increase by almost 50% next year according to a report from a leading accountancy and business advisory firm.

The BDO Stoy Hayward Industry Watch report forecasts that as economic conditions worsen, business failures will rise to 21,900 by the end of this year and to 32,300 in 2009, to a peak of 32,400 in 2010. The 2009/2010 figures would follow the highest annual rate of business failures recorded since 1992 when 33,900 businesses failed.

http://www.bytestart.co.uk/content/news/1_...ures-2009.shtml

[awf]

I think it's a difference in the goods sold.

You hardly need to browse your regular bulk food shopping, but you may want to check out the contents of a book or do a comparison. I think book retailers win out too cause if you do like browsing bookshops and find something you like then you're likely to buy it there and then. I think this will continue until electronic books with high res colour screens really catch on, with say the ability to browse and use a book for a 24 hour limit.

Speaking as a bibliophile, I don't see books ever being taken over by ebooks, but there is a risk for bookshops that don't respect their stock. Being aslo a bit of a comic-book geek, I just ordered a bunch of graphic novels online because I couldn't find the one book in the series that I needed to continue reading. I have 1 and 2, Borders has 4, 5 and 6 but not 3 so I've just ordered 3,4 and 5 online. Add this to the fact that some stores you walk into they just plant the books anywhere disrespecting series, authors or titles (thus making you spend extra time hunting down the one you want), there is a risk to stores like this going down.

So from me, the message to retailers is:-

• Respect your stock and replenish frequently

• Don't make your customer work hard to find what they need

• If you specialise, take time to learn a bit about the product your selling (or at least don't pretend to know - PC World take note)

• Simple price check with neighbours

• Don't fake sales or price reductions

So many times I've walked out of a place and not bought a perfectly fine product because of damaged goods (eg. battered edges, not kept in neat order in same place), unknowledgeable (or sometimes disrespectful) sales staff, or because the price in the less established place next door is 20% cheaper.

My number one bugbear though is fake sales which I've noticed this year eg. Putting sales signs everywhere and 50% discounts in the windows when only 2 products in the whole store is 50% off, and sales signs are hung over products that aren't actually for sale - the other tactic is to hyper-inflate the price eg. £20 product price set at £40, then add 50% discount - HMV for example do this all the time.