F S A Say Economy Is Going To D E F C O M 3

[Realistbear]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle4393209.ece

The TimesJuly 25, 2008

FSA says slowdown is entering third stageChristine Seib

Britain's financial regulator told companies yesterday to check whether their business models are sufficently robust to withstand the economic downturn.

Hector Sants, chief executive of the Financial Services Authority (FSA), said that the

country was entering the third

act of the global financial crisis, in which the difficulties moved from banks and stock markets to the real economy and consumers. The next 12 months will be very difficult, he said.....

IMO the FSA are partly correct. We are entering a new phase in the collapse of the miracle economy. But not the third. IMO its the 2nd. Credit crunch and then the collapse in the wider economy. Stage 3 is massive job losses--that will have to wait until the chill of the winter winds begin in late Autumn.

Good today isn't it? *

_____________________

* In reality, I think its all a bit frightening. I think we are living in the days of a structural collapse and are not just seeing the unwinding of another boom period leading to the usual bust.

Edited July 25, 2008 by Realistbear

[Bloo Loo]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle4393209.ece

The TimesJuly 25, 2008

FSA says slowdown is entering third stageChristine Seib

Britain's financial regulator told companies yesterday to check whether their business models are sufficently robust to withstand the economic downturn.

Hector Sants, chief executive of the Financial Services Authority (FSA), said that the

country was entering the third

act of the global financial crisis, in which the difficulties moved from banks and stock markets to the real economy and consumers. The next 12 months will be very difficult, he said.....

IMO the FSA are partly correct. We are entering a new phase in the collapse of the miracle economy. But not the third. IMO its the 2nd. Credit crunch and then the collapse in the wider economy. Stage 3 is massive job losses--that will have to wait until the chill of the winter winds begin in late Autumn.

Good today isn't it? *

_____________________

* In reality, I think its all a bit frightening. I think we are living in the days of a structural collapse and are not just seeing the unwinding of another boom period leading to the usual bust.

I agree, Act 1 was the loss of credit, Act 2 is the fall off in trade and profits, which it appears we are about to enter.

What are they not telling us, was Act 2 the Major bail out of a failed financial industry, not that we are privy to that?

[Dave Spart]

DEFCON defined.

On a Top Gear show several years ago Jeremy Clarkson raced a Bugati Veyron from Northern Italy to Tower 42 in the City of London.

In one scene, to show off the car's awesome power Clarkson pulled over and retracted the aerofoil to reduce drag and make it go faster. Like many who don't really understand DEFCON he barked that the gloves were now off as he was going to "DEFCON 4".

Woah! DEFCON 4! Put the kettle on!

DEFCON1 is the most severe of all DEFCON levels. Had Bush been doing his job properly in late summer 2001 he probably would have elevated the US military to this level instead of telling journalists to watch his golf swing.

Had he put the US financial regulators at a similar condition he might have avoided the Credit Crunch, IndyMac, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Bear Stearns, Enron, Worldcom etc etc etc . . . . . and the rest of that Billy Joel song.

For a war President his ineptitude surpasses all challengers.

Edited July 25, 2008 by Dave Spart

[VeryMeanReversion]

* In reality, I think its all a bit frightening. I think we are living in the days of a structural collapse and are not just seeing the unwinding of another boom period leading to the usual bust.

I can't see how any boom could be bigger than this one. It has involved many millions of people worldwide betting their lifetime earnings using leverage. A lot of assumptions are about to be shattered and life will be very different post-bust but I have no idea what the social consequences will be.

One postive way of looking at it is that it's only paper and computer numbers moving around

VMR.

[OnlyMe]

How can the FSA talk about stages of something that they couldn't see growing in front of their eyes?

[Realistbear]

DEFCON defined.

On a Top Gear show several years ago Jeremy Clarkson raced a Bugati Veyron from Northern Italy to Tower 42 in the City of London.

In one scene, to show off the car's awesome power Clarkson pulled over and retracted the aerofoil to reduce drag and make it go faster. Like many who don't really understand DEFCON he barked that the gloves were now off as he was going to "DEFCON 4".

Woah! DEFCON 4! Put the kettle on!

DEFCON1 is the most severe of all DEFCON levels. Had Bush been doing his job properly in late summer 2001 he probably would have elevated the US military to this level instead of telling journalists to watch his golf swing.

Had he put the US financial regulators at a similar condition he might have avoided the Credit Crunch, IndyMac, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Bear Stearns, Enron, Worldcom etc etc etc . . . . . and the rest of that Billy Joel song.

For a war President his ineptitude surpasses all challengers.

Had GWB been shown drinking a cup of coffee while the crisis was on they would have asked why he was sitting around enjoying a leisurely cup of coffee while all hell was breaking loose. I wonder of Churchill was ever caught on camera with a glass on Brandy in one hand and a cigar in the other, apparently enjoying himself while there was a war on.?

GMAB

[stuckmojo]

DEFCON defined.

On a Top Gear show several years ago Jeremy Clarkson raced a Bugati Veyron from Northern Italy to Tower 42 in the City of London.

In one scene, to show off the car's awesome power Clarkson pulled over and retracted the aerofoil to reduce drag and make it go faster. Like many who don't really understand DEFCON he barked that the gloves were now off as he was going to "DEFCON 4".

Woah! DEFCON 4! Put the kettle on!

DEFCON1 is the most severe of all DEFCON levels. Had Bush been doing his job properly in late summer 2001 he probably would have elevated the US military to this level instead of telling journalists to watch his golf swing.

Had he put the US financial regulators at a similar condition he might have avoided the Credit Crunch, IndyMac, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Bear Stearns, Enron, Worldcom etc etc etc . . . . . and the rest of that Billy Joel song.

For a war President his ineptitude surpasses all challengers.

Yes, he could have avoided the Credit Crunch and all in 2001-2002, but he would have lost the elections.

[interestrateripoff]

Yes, he could have avoided the Credit Crunch and all in 2001-2002, but he would have lost the elections.

Short-termism that's all politicians are interested in. Hence the world economy being held to ransom by the oil price again.

Long term projects don't win votes as there effects may not be felt for 20 years or so.

[eric pebble]

How can the FSA talk about stages of something that they couldn't see growing in front of their eyes?

PRECISELY!!!!

THIS WHOLE BUBBLE WAS CREATED BY THE CDO/SIV FRAUD - AND HELD UP BY LIAR LOANS/MORTGAGE FRAUD...... IT IS THE GREATEST BUBBLE & PYRAMID SELLING SCAM OF ALL TIME -- IT IS THE GREATEST FRAUD EVER IN HISTORY............... AND THE FSA DID NOTHING ABOUT IT.........

Edited July 25, 2008 by eric pebble

[sossij]

I can't see how any boom could be bigger than this one. It has involved many millions of people worldwide betting their lifetime earnings using leverage. A lot of assumptions are about to be shattered and life will be very different post-bust but I have no idea what the social consequences will be.

One postive way of looking at it is that it's only paper and computer numbers moving around

VMR.

I agree.. I've been pondering what will happen when there is a lot of people losing their jobs and defaulting on their home repayments? While the number of repossession is "manageable" banks are able to foreclose and claw back some debt, but at some point there must come a tipping point at which there are just too many cases to deal with. In such a scenario, I can see disobedience to the banks on a huge scale. How do you evict 250,000 - 500,000 people? I imagine that people will eventually get organised into a self-help campaign via the web (c/f the bank charges case) and then the banks won't have a chance.

Edited July 25, 2008 by sossij

[rettah]

IMO the FSA are partly correct. We are entering a new phase in the collapse of the miracle economy. But not the third. IMO its the 2nd. Credit crunch and then the collapse in the wider economy. Stage 3 is massive job losses--that will have to wait until the chill of the winter winds begin in late Autumn.

Good today isn't it?

How can anyone think that massive job losses is good news? OK, the economy was based on a massive bubble in the housing market but a lot of the people who will suffer as a consequence will have had nothing to do with it's creation. If anything this is incredibly bad news. A bit of humility wouldn't go amiss on these boards occasionally.

[GCS15]

Short-termism that's all politicians are interested in. Hence the world economy being held to ransom by the oil price again.

Long term projects don't win votes as there effects may not be felt for 20 years or so.

Shame that you are spot on. Then again the west has turned into nations of people who shout at the microwave to hurry up (apologies to Joan Ryan from the San Francisco Chronicle).

[crash2006]

the FSA is a shame.

[interestrateripoff]

Shame that you are spot on. Then again the west has turned into nations of people who shout at the microwave to hurry up (apologies to Joan Ryan from the San Francisco Chronicle).

Did people ever shout at the gas over for it to get a move on for taking 2-3 hrs to cook a joint?

People certainly lack patience but we've all been brain washed into expecting everything immediately in a consumer driven society. Hence the massive credit bubble why save when you can have it now and only pay £50 a month, you can afford that can't you.

Only trouble is is wasn't just one £50 etc... a month it quickly ran in to maybe a dozen of so £50 a month you could afford, but the you found out £50 a month had suddenly morphed into £600, £700, £800 a month in total and you couldn't afford it.

[right_freds_dead]

the FSA is a shame.

they failed on protecting pensions, and now failed to regulate lending.

tell me again - what are they supposed to do and who is paying for all those asses on office seats ?

[sell2rent]

It has become personal. Wife lost her (well paid manufacturing) job yesterday due to credit crunch and energy prices, a 150 year old business failed. Not being paid the last month's wage, notice or redundancy.

[GCS15]

It has become personal. Wife lost her (well paid manufacturing) job yesterday due to credit crunch and energy prices, a 150 year old business failed. Not being paid the last month's wage, notice or redundancy.

That's rough. I'm sorry to hear it.

[Minos]

It has become personal. Wife lost her (well paid manufacturing) job yesterday due to credit crunch and energy prices, a 150 year old business failed. Not being paid the last month's wage, notice or redundancy.

She should be able to claim some redundancy money from the NI fund. Check out the CAB website.

[Monkey]

DEFCON defined.

On a Top Gear show several years ago Jeremy Clarkson raced a Bugati Veyron from Northern Italy to Tower 42 in the City of London.

In one scene, to show off the car's awesome power Clarkson pulled over and retracted the aerofoil to reduce drag and make it go faster. Like many who don't really understand DEFCON he barked that the gloves were now off as he was going to "DEFCON 4".

Woah! DEFCON 4! Put the kettle on!

DEFCON1 is the most severe of all DEFCON levels. Had Bush been doing his job properly in late summer 2001 he probably would have elevated the US military to this level instead of telling journalists to watch his golf swing.

Had he put the US financial regulators at a similar condition he might have avoided the Credit Crunch, IndyMac, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Bear Stearns, Enron, Worldcom etc etc etc . . . . . and the rest of that Billy Joel song.

For a war President his ineptitude surpasses all challengers.

What bikini colour is that

Edit after a google, its amber

http://www.newstatesman.com/200502070011

Edited July 25, 2008 by Monkey

[Jadoube]

they failed on protecting pensions, and now failed to regulate lending.

tell me again - what are they supposed to do and who is paying for all those asses on office seats ?

Can't have too much red tape you know. That's the solution, less red tape, set the bankers et al free to do whatever they think is best.

Remind me, which party is likely to be the next govt and what is thier view on red tape? Makes you feel good inside doesn't it.

[sell2rent]

She should be able to claim some redundancy money from the NI fund. Check out the CAB website.

Thanks Minos, in a few months she might get up to £330 a week for the unpaid salary and notice period, better than nothing, but less than half what she was paid because it is capped.

[A.steve]

I think it is the third stage.

1. Credit crisis... (the panic when banks would all be instantly bankrupt without the support of the central banks) - Over very quickly...

2. Credit crunch... slowdown in lending... (when central banks support commercial banks - but without baling them - lending them their finance but not supporting the perceived asset prices with fresh funding) - Ongoing

3. Economic crash - when the businesses which were reliant upon loose credit conditions implode leading to high unemployment and a vicious cycle of self-reinforcing economic contraction.

[VeryMeanReversion]

I can see disobedience to the banks on a huge scale. How do you evict 250,000 - 500,000 people? I imagine that people will eventually get organised into a self-help campaign via the web (c/f the bank charges case) and then the banks won't have a chance.

The Wilsons tenants should start their own group. Fairly good bargaining power I would expect. Imagine the consequences of eight hundred simultaneous notices to terminate their tenancies being issued. Bust within the month and lots of cheap properties soon on the market.

VMR.

[sossij]

The Wilsons tenants should start their own group. Fairly good bargaining power I would expect. Imagine the consequences of eight hundred simultaneous notices to terminate their tenancies being issued. Bust within the month and lots of cheap properties soon on the market.

VMR.

Wouldn't that be fantastic! I'd pay for the leaflets

[Optobear]

[

* In reality, I think its all a bit frightening. I think we are living in the days of a structural collapse and are not just seeing the unwinding of another boom period leading to the usual bust.

I wonder whether people, us, bankers, economists, or anyone knows what a structural collapse looks like? Was 1929 a collapse? When you look back at the DOW over 100 years, even 1929 looks like a blip on the inexorable rise of inflationary money. 1987, which at the time looked like a repeat "black-day" looks tiny. So maybe no one knows what a structural collapse looks like? Perhaps the Romans knew, but they didn't write it down.

It is clear that inflationary money, massive population growth, and finite resources are incompatible, the chances of all those just smoothly transitioning into steady state seems low, so we must expect some pretty wild fluctuations and failures. Maybe we are heading into an end of the Roman empire event, rather than a 1929... or maybe that is still 500 years away from that event, and it is a little local difficulty with inflation...

Either way, it is most interesting time economically and politically in several generations.