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House Price Crash Forum


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About rettah

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  1. The clue once again is "seasonally adjusted" Non adjusted prices fell by 0.2% - £208,585 in Nov, 208,148 in Dec
  2. Strangely enough, with house prices seemingly flat at the moment, the seasonal adjustment rather than smoothing the market is creating large swings. The rises and falls seem to be little more than the seasonal adjustment.
  3. The seasonal adjustment will still be applied whether prices are rising or falling. If you adjust prices up by 0.8% at some point you have to adjust them down by the same amount. Hence if actual prices remain flat seasonally adjusted prices will have to show a fall.
  4. Was just going to post this. From the nationwide figures we know that they applied 0.8% of seasonal adjustment so all this months rise is probably down to the adjustment. The seasonal adjustments turn negative soon and if NSA prices are flat or showing a fall then the adjusted prices should start to show big falls.
  5. "...and the approach of Christmas" Don't forget this. Never happened before.........
  6. What about all the jobs lost when the local bakers, butchers and other high street shops close down?
  7. Lower highs and lower lows.....
  8. Exactly. If they fell by £2,376 then they fell by 1.4% and NOT 0.7%. 0.7% seasoning added to improve the flavour.
  9. Looking in the actual prices the non seasoned fall is a more encouraging 1.4%
  10. Good article in some ways until you get to the bottom and read this: "The number one reason housing costs have risen is the constriction of supply." no it isn't. It is the supply of easy credit. When are people going to get it?
  11. My "on the market in the last 24 hours" search inc STC for Hertfordshire gave around 90 properties a year back. This increased to 200 at the end of last year and is now regularly around 300.
  12. According to the BBC they haven't fallen just "lost momentum". That's OK then.
  13. A few thoughts: Anyone know if these are seasoned up? "The end of a stamp duty holiday on property sales and snowy weather were cited as possible factors behind the price decline." - Straws, clutch..... "A pause in the upward trend will also be a relief to potential first-time buyers....". But surely the recent rise was a pause in the downward trend which has now continued on its way?
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