Things To Appreciate About Hpc.co.uk

[VacantPossession]

I've been coming here since the very early days of HPC, and then there were just a few hundred members. In earlier years HPC was virtually alone in making a stand against house price inflation. I'm sure I am not alone in having learned a huge amount about macro and micro economics, the city, UK politics, how journalism works, and a whole host of interconnected subjects. What stands out is that, compared with the universal dross and generally very poor quality of posting on many other similar sites, there is an increasing input here from intelligent and knowledgable sources, excellent links to other related subjects, and a host of genuinely clever and original posters who seem to break the mould of mediocrity found elsewhere.

There has also been a marked reduction in the number of purely prejudiced posts, with many threads supported by clear evidence, verifiable sources, and a wealth of info for the uninitiated. From a previous position of mud-slinging bulls and bears, occasional personal attacks, of which I have been sometimes as guilty as others, this website has matured into a viable and increasingly respected repository of largely B()llshit-free discourse.

What is consistently remarkable is that, now the rest of the world has started to catch up, I see time and time again articles in the press which represent a new but grudging bow to the themes that this website alone brought to the attention of entrenched and stubborn denials held by almost the whole UK population and 99% of its media. We cannot know whether HPC directly influences the sea change of views, and of course it would be arrogant to claim it played more than a small part in the shift of opinion since the evidence is now there for all to see whether HPC existed or not.

But it is worth noting that almost every single exploded myth about many issues relating to housing was virtually the exclusive preserve of this website against an ocean of contrary views elsewhere:

1. The lack of supply myth was nuked on this website.

2. This website was one of the first to draw attention to false inflation figures.

3. HPC was the first site I witnessed which correctly predicted that lowering interest rates would not make any difference to mortgage uptake.

4. HPC was one of the first websites to alert attention to Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley.

5. HPC was almost alone (in the UK) in alerting people to the impending sub prime crisis, both in the US and the UK.

6. HPC was at least two years ahead of any newspaper, most economists, and the entire broadcasting network in predicting a cessation to housing inflation.

7. HPC was to my knowledge the first UK website to obliterate the myth that shared ownership was a good thing.

8. This site stood alone in challenging the myth that sustained wealth can be created by playing pass the parcel with property.

I'm sure there are many other issues that were first highlighted here so I hope others will fill the gaps. Meantime, my warmest thanks to the creators and moderators of this excellent website for having the foresight and courage to stand up to the rubbish that has been promoted in the name of house inflation for too long.

VP

[Home_To_Roost]

This site is a refuge from mainstream media. Nobody with an ounce of sense can truly believe the mainstream media!

[The Masked Tulip]

Great British humour - some of the posts on here are hilarious

[The 4 Horsemen]

Eloquently put, I have not been a member very long but this is the only forum visited that has improved my knowledge considerably.

[BearNecessities]

The items you have listed are true, however there is an awful lot of stuff on here that hasn't come true.

Also as a site that deals with a single issue, it would be very difficult for anyone to paint it as being objective.

For example if i was arguing with someone and wanted to use data or a post from the site to prove my argument, however valid and true it was my combatant would merely say that as the site is dedicated to the single issue it is bound to say that.

Edited June 14, 2008 by BearNecessities

[Guest mSparks]

I dont know whether to laugh or cry.....

[psj]

Hi everyone,

I've been lurking on this website for awhile now, and finally decided to join in!

Around the summer last year, a friend and I were discussing house prices, and we just couldn't believe the amount of money people were willing to pay for such boxes. At the time, a couple of us were living in a new build flat, and we found out how much our landlord was paying (well, supposedly paying) for the flat.

After a bit of hunting around, my friend found this website, and directed me to some of the graphs. It was pretty apparent from looking at them that SOMETHING had to give. It was quite reassuring in a way that other people had come to the same conclusions as us, and us wondered about the "housing shortage".

Anyway, we had to find another place to rent last September (that's another story) - and the estate agent guy that was showing us around asked if we were interested in buying somewhere. I told him I'd done my research, and come to the conclusion that it was going to collapse pretty soon. I will never forget the look on his face, of sheer disgust, and the very idea shocked him to the core. He'd just got a mortgage with one of his friends, and gave me the normal propaganda about the house market being wonderful etc.

This guy worked for a small estate agent in Colchester, who had recently (then anyway) started a second branch in another part of the town. I was quite curious the other day about seeing several articles about estate agents closing, and found out the second newer branch had already closed!

I wonder if he believes me now?

This website is certainly a treasure trove of information to anyone willing to listen, so I must thank everyone for their valuable contributions over the years. I have already learnt a lot about the economics of the UK, and certainly intend to come back as the crash progresses. I must also thank everyone for for keeping me sane, knowing I wasn't the only one wondering where all the money was coming from!

PSJ

[alwightchav!]

Hi everyone,

I've been lurking on this website for awhile now, and finally decided to join in!

Around the summer last year, a friend and I were discussing house prices, and we just couldn't believe the amount of money people were willing to pay for such boxes. At the time, a couple of us were living in a new build flat, and we found out how much our landlord was paying (well, supposedly paying) for the flat.

After a bit of hunting around, my friend found this website, and directed me to some of the graphs. It was pretty apparent from looking at them that SOMETHING had to give. It was quite reassuring in a way that other people had come to the same conclusions as us, and us wondered about the "housing shortage".

Anyway, we had to find another place to rent last September (that's another story) - and the estate agent guy that was showing us around asked if we were interested in buying somewhere. I told him I'd done my research, and come to the conclusion that it was going to collapse pretty soon. I will never forget the look on his face, of sheer disgust, and the very idea shocked him to the core. He'd just got a mortgage with one of his friends, and gave me the normal propaganda about the house market being wonderful etc.

This guy worked for a small estate agent in Colchester, who had recently (then anyway) started a second branch in another part of the town. I was quite curious the other day about seeing several articles about estate agents closing, and found out the second newer branch had already closed!

I wonder if he believes me now?

This website is certainly a treasure trove of information to anyone willing to listen, so I must thank everyone for their valuable contributions over the years. I have already learnt a lot about the economics of the UK, and certainly intend to come back as the crash progresses. I must also thank everyone for for keeping me sane, knowing I wasn't the only one wondering where all the money was coming from!

PSJ

I also delight in telling smug bastards that the house of cards is about to be obliterated

[Son of Taeper]

I've been coming here since the very early days of HPC, and then there were just a few hundred members. In earlier years HPC was virtually alone in making a stand against house price inflation. I'm sure I am not alone in having learned a huge amount about macro and micro economics, the city, UK politics, how journalism works, and a whole host of interconnected subjects. What stands out is that, compared with the universal dross and generally very poor quality of posting on many other similar sites, there is an increasing input here from intelligent and knowledgable sources, excellent links to other related subjects, and a host of genuinely clever and original posters who seem to break the mould of mediocrity found elsewhere.

There has also been a marked reduction in the number of purely prejudiced posts, with many threads supported by clear evidence, verifiable sources, and a wealth of info for the uninitiated. From a previous position of mud-slinging bulls and bears, occasional personal attacks, of which I have been sometimes as guilty as others, this website has matured into a viable and increasingly respected repository of largely B()llshit-free discourse.

What is consistently remarkable is that, now the rest of the world has started to catch up, I see time and time again articles in the press which represent a new but grudging bow to the themes that this website alone brought to the attention of entrenched and stubborn denials held by almost the whole UK population and 99% of its media. We cannot know whether HPC directly influences the sea change of views, and of course it would be arrogant to claim it played more than a small part in the shift of opinion since the evidence is now there for all to see whether HPC existed or not.

But it is worth noting that almost every single exploded myth about many issues relating to housing was virtually the exclusive preserve of this website against an ocean of contrary views elsewhere:

1. The lack of supply myth was nuked on this website.

2. This website was one of the first to draw attention to false inflation figures.

3. HPC was the first site I witnessed which correctly predicted that lowering interest rates would not make any difference to mortgage uptake.

4. HPC was one of the first websites to alert attention to Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley.

5. HPC was almost alone (in the UK) in alerting people to the impending sub prime crisis, both in the US and the UK.

6. HPC was at least two years ahead of any newspaper, most economists, and the entire broadcasting network in predicting a cessation to housing inflation.

7. HPC was to my knowledge the first UK website to obliterate the myth that shared ownership was a good thing.

8. This site stood alone in challenging the myth that sustained wealth can be created by playing pass the parcel with property.

I'm sure there are many other issues that were first highlighted here so I hope others will fill the gaps. Meantime, my warmest thanks to the creators and moderators of this excellent website for having the foresight and courage to stand up to the rubbish that has been promoted in the name of house inflation for too long.

VP

Good post.

Very good post.

You went into a lot there and some I agree with , and others I don't, but overall, I agree.

I came in through the back door so to speak, a post from a renowned American who spoke of an impending hpc.

I thought I was alone when I started to research this and then came across HPC. Sure, I'm not the brightest guy here overall, but I see myself as a part of a puzzle.

[VacantPossession]

The items you have listed are true, however there is an awful lot of stuff on here that hasn't come true.

Also as a site that deals with a single issue, it would be very difficult for anyone to paint it as being objective.

For example if i was arguing with someone and wanted to use data or a post from the site to prove my argument, however valid and true it was my combatant would merely say that as the site is dedicated to the single issue it is bound to say that.

A multiple issue website is no more capable of objectivity than a single issue site. The important thing is whether, on balance, things said on it are true or false, or at least challenge established falsehoods. If an Estate Agent's website told the truth about where the market is going, then that too is capable of being objective (but highly unlikely). But in any case, I was keen to point out that HPC has grown into a site which is not entirely "single issue". There are numerous related but stimulating subsidiary issues not wholly connected with just house prices and that expands the breadth of infomation for the average subscriber. In the last week we have had threads about 42 days in clink, living abroad, a great deal of humour, general politics, economics outside just housing economics, gold, fuel, inflation and many other subjects.

VP

[BearNecessities]

A multiple issue website is no more capable of objectivity than a single issue site. The important thing is whether, on balance, things said on it are true or false, or at least challenge established falsehoods. If an Estate Agent's website told the truth about where the market is going, then that too is capable of being objective (but highly unlikely). But in any case, I was keen to point out that HPC has grown into a site which is not entirely "single issue". There are numerous related but stimulating subsidiary issues not wholly connected with just house prices and that expands the breadth of infomation for the average subscriber. In the last week we have had threads about 42 days in clink, living abroad, a great deal of humour, general politics, economics outside just housing economics, gold, fuel, inflation and many other subjects.

VP

It is more about it's perception as a single issue site than anything else

Don't get me wrong - I have learnt loads from here and there are now many things that I would have believed previously that I feel have now been disproved.

There is also an awful lot that has been said that hasn't and won't come to fruition that is written usually in the form of an exaggeration of a situation.

[bendy]

I've been coming here since the very early days of HPC, and then there were just a few hundred members. In earlier years HPC was virtually alone in making a stand against house price inflation. I'm sure I am not alone in having learned a huge amount about macro and micro economics, the city, UK politics, how journalism works, and a whole host of interconnected subjects. What stands out is that, compared with the universal dross and generally very poor quality of posting on many other similar sites, there is an increasing input here from intelligent and knowledgable sources, excellent links to other related subjects, and a host of genuinely clever and original posters who seem to break the mould of mediocrity found elsewhere.

There has also been a marked reduction in the number of purely prejudiced posts, with many threads supported by clear evidence, verifiable sources, and a wealth of info for the uninitiated. From a previous position of mud-slinging bulls and bears, occasional personal attacks, of which I have been sometimes as guilty as others, this website has matured into a viable and increasingly respected repository of largely B()llshit-free discourse.

What is consistently remarkable is that, now the rest of the world has started to catch up, I see time and time again articles in the press which represent a new but grudging bow to the themes that this website alone brought to the attention of entrenched and stubborn denials held by almost the whole UK population and 99% of its media. We cannot know whether HPC directly influences the sea change of views, and of course it would be arrogant to claim it played more than a small part in the shift of opinion since the evidence is now there for all to see whether HPC existed or not.

But it is worth noting that almost every single exploded myth about many issues relating to housing was virtually the exclusive preserve of this website against an ocean of contrary views elsewhere:

1. The lack of supply myth was nuked on this website.

2. This website was one of the first to draw attention to false inflation figures.

3. HPC was the first site I witnessed which correctly predicted that lowering interest rates would not make any difference to mortgage uptake.

4. HPC was one of the first websites to alert attention to Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley.

5. HPC was almost alone (in the UK) in alerting people to the impending sub prime crisis, both in the US and the UK.

6. HPC was at least two years ahead of any newspaper, most economists, and the entire broadcasting network in predicting a cessation to housing inflation.

7. HPC was to my knowledge the first UK website to obliterate the myth that shared ownership was a good thing.

8. This site stood alone in challenging the myth that sustained wealth can be created by playing pass the parcel with property.

I'm sure there are many other issues that were first highlighted here so I hope others will fill the gaps. Meantime, my warmest thanks to the creators and moderators of this excellent website for having the foresight and courage to stand up to the rubbish that has been promoted in the name of house inflation for too long.

VP

i've lurked since the site came about, but joined after another forum i use to frequent wanted work email addresses in case you were upto no good - not a chance!

i have to disagree a bit though, having seen capital economics forecasts since late 2003 always being that 'next year will be the start of the correction' they do hold more credence as 'professional economists' than the opinions bandied about here.

in fact now i visit this place a lot more often i am surprised they are not mentioned more, or even have hero status here.

[Timm]

i have to disagree a bit though, having seen capital economics forecasts since late 2003 always being that 'next year will be the start of the correction' they do hold more credence as 'professional economists' than the opinions bandied about here.

in fact now i visit this place a lot more often i am surprised they are not mentioned more, or even have hero status here.

They got the timing out by about four years. There are a lot of people and bodies that can claim to have seen what was coming, but called it too early.

Which raises the question, which credible commentator called the top closest?

[the serf]

They got the timing out by about four years. There are a lot of people and bodies that can claim to have seen what was coming, but called it too early.

Which raises the question, which credible commentator called the top closest?

Fred Harrison called houses end 07-08 in 2005

ne gud?

[bobthe~]

They got the timing out by about four years. There are a lot of people and bodies that can claim to have seen what was coming, but called it too early.

Which raises the question, which credible commentator called the top closest?

but does that actually matter?

Say that an engineer examines a bridge and says it is unstable.

All the engineers from the company that built the bridge say "no, it's fine, it is operating well inside normal parameters."

And the engineer keeps saying (maybe on a website) that it is going to collapse.

The fact that it takes 2 years to collapse doesn't make the engineer wrong, just that it kept going and then collpased.

I think timing is over-rated.

Otherwise we would be saying how great Rosie Millard is, because if, say I predicted the housing market would crash at the beginning of '07, and it stopped in August, her timing (say December, although I know it was probably May), would be no worse than mine.

[dinker]

I`ve learnt a lot from HPC, almost as good as Slashdot.

[cock-eyed octopus]

but does that actually matter?

Say that an engineer examines a bridge and says it is unstable.

All the engineers from the company that built the bridge say "no, it's fine, it is operating well inside normal parameters."

And the engineer keeps saying (maybe on a website) that it is going to collapse.

The fact that it takes 2 years to collapse doesn't make the engineer wrong, just that it kept going and then collpased.

I think timing is over-rated.

Otherwise we would be saying how great Rosie Millard is, because if, say I predicted the housing market would crash at the beginning of '07, and it stopped in August, her timing (say December, although I know it was probably May), would be no worse than mine.

Sorry, but this is completely wrong. Any useful predictive statement MUST give a timescale.

All bridges collapse. Eventually. Any housing market will collapse. Eventually. The better the timing of your purchase (or sale), the better off you are likely to be.

[VacantPossession]

Sorry, but this is completely wrong. Any useful predictive statement MUST give a timescale.

All bridges collapse. Eventually. Any housing market will collapse. Eventually. The better the timing of your purchase (or sale), the better off you are likely to be.

So it is a question of what is a fair time scale. I would guess that over half HPC subscribers would at least entertain the notion that the only reason the crash didn't start in 2005 was because of unprecedendet hyping of a market most sensible people knew was due for change. I don't think two years out in these circumstance, against the typical cycle of 12 to 15 years between booms and busts, is at all bad. But there is something much more important than prediction alone. HPC was one of the few sites giving voice to the notion that not only was a crash inevitable, but that it was DESIRABLE. Nearly every other institution saw a crash as an unmitigated disaster. To me this is a vital distinction. HPC has persuaded thousands that a crash is ethically necessary as well as economically necessary.

I don't think just predicting the market for selfish purposes or gain is enough. Which is why I am neither a bull nor a bear, because both those categories imply that one wants the market to change purely for one's own convenience.

VP

Edited June 14, 2008 by VacantPossession

[sossij]

there is an increasing input here from intelligent and knowledgable sources, excellent links to other related subjects, and a host of genuinely clever and original posters who seem to break the mould of mediocrity found elsewhere.

Count yourself among them VP- I always look forward to reading your posts. This one in particular I saved for posterity:

Excellent point. And that is exactly why prices had to fall, and it's really nothing much to do with credit crunches and unavailablility of loans, or even UK economic conditions. You cannot sustain a housing regime whereby it is permanently more profitable to own a house than it is to save money, or earn money doing something useful, or invest in something that actually benefits the economy, because the core structure of a national economy cannot absorb that profit taking, since it has to be paid for by the next person or persons in line, and they simply run out of the ability or willingness to pay.

This simple, fundamental fact has STILL NOT BEEN GRASPED by the majority of house owners in the UK, and has not even been grasped by most apparently qualified economists, who still believe that somehow this profit comes out of thin air and that no-one else is directly paying for it. Those payers are first time buyers and others lower on the pyramid slopes. The giant con trick of property is that it successfully persuaded people that essentially money grows on trees, and you can go on for ever magically making vast unearned income and that also magically, EVERYONE is a winner.

The opposite is the case. The vast profits from housing are nothing more than a transfer of wealth from the bottom of the pyramid to the top. And once the top of the pyramid becomes top heavy, it has to come tumbling down. The tragedy is that it could, and should, have come crashing down years ago, except that millions of not very bright first time buyers were stupid enough to become lambs to the slaughter in this utter con trick. And this has been largely promoted on the complete myth of "shortage" which plainly is not true. The UK population has been conned and frightened into thinking that housing will be in a perpetual spiral of increased shortage, because they have no understanding of cyclic economics. Which is odd because a carbon copy of this happened about sixteen years ago, right on cue, and will probably happen again in another 15 to 18 years from now.

What economists and economic planners in government fail to do each and every time, is to stop the rot before it takes hold. Lawson let this happen in 1989 and Brown has let it happen in 2008. All the signals were there, but from pure selfishness and short-term gain, governments lack the spine to curtail house inflation until it is too late. The level of interest rate argument has proven to be also untrue. Economists were staunchly arguing that it is "different this time", but it is not. It doesn't matter if interest rates are 15% or zero percent: If the CAPITAL COST of housing exceeds that which is affordable by the stokers of the housing engine...the first time buyers...then the whole edifice has to collapse. The credit crunch merely accelerated it, but did not cause it.

Four paragraphs of clarity that should be required reading for anyone who still doubting The Crash You sir are a credit to the site.

[cock-eyed octopus]

So it is a question of what is a fair time scale. I would guess that over half HPC subscribers would at least entertain the notion that the only reason the crash didn't start in 2005 was because of unprecedendet hyping of a market most sensible people knew was due for change. I don't think two years out in these circumstance, against the typical cycle of 12 to 15 years between booms and busts, is at all bad. But there is something much more important than prediction alone. HPC was one of the few sites giving voice to the notion that not only was a crash inevitable, but that it was DESIRABLE. Nearly every other institution saw a crash as an unmitigated disaster. To me this is a vital distinction. HPC has persuaded thousands that a crash is ethically necessary as well as economically necessary.

I don't think just predicting the market for selfish purposes or gain is enough. Which is why I am neither a bull nor a bear, because both those categories imply that one wants the market to change purely for one's own convenience.

VP

That is not what I was replying to.

The fact remains that any meaningful predictive statement needs a time scale. And I'm sorry again, but saying HPC didn't happen in 2005 due to unforeseen circumstances simply highlights the problem.

As for this site persuading thousands that a crash is ethically necessary, you'll forgive me if I remain sceptical.

Although, the strange thing is, nearly all my friends & relations - all of whom own houses/have mortgages - have been far from smug about the HPI over the past few years; nerves, guilt & "it'll all end in tears" would be closer to it.

I find many more examples of smug people here.

And more ********.

[libspero]

I find many more examples of smug people here.

And more ********.

You come across a bit bitter old boy.. chin up!

As a follower since 2005 the current events must be just what you've been waiting for

[VacantPossession]

As for this site persuading thousands that a crash is ethically necessary, you'll forgive me if I remain sceptical.

Being sceptical is the dominant notion that has made this site what it is, so congratulations for that. I was careful to say that not everyone here is present for ethical reasons, and no doubt many are waiting for a whacking great crash so they can chip in to the next boom (I have consistently distanced all my posts from that position). But I do think that a significant number of posters have changed their thinking and now recognise that endless playing of the market, from either bull or bear standpoint, is not desirable in an enlightened society. If that is too idealistic and worthy of cynicism then you have a point, because like you I am also deeply sceptical as a rule. But I think there is a slight chink appearing which might be vaguely promising.

VP

[VacantPossession]

Count yourself among them VP- I always look forward to reading your posts. This one in particular I saved for posterity:

Four paragraphs of clarity that should be required reading for anyone who still doubting The Crash You sir are a credit to the site.

You are kind to say that, and thank you, but there are others here who have wealth of technical knowledge which I lack.

VP

Edited June 14, 2008 by VacantPossession

[Mikesev]

Amen. HPC is an incredibly informative resource.

Two standout HPC.co.uk inspired moments:

-Arguing with some friends in a pub 18 months ago about house price inflation, they were convinced that supply and demand meant continued inflation. I explained what a credit crunch was, and how it would impact demand. They now think I was somehow omniscient.

-Talking my parents out of tripling their mortgage to buy a new build at about the same time as the above. They actually thanked me recently for stopping them from making a mistake.

[hankdd]

1. The lack of supply myth was nuked on this website.

2. This website was one of the first to draw attention to false inflation figures.

3. HPC was the first site I witnessed which correctly predicted that lowering interest rates would not make any difference to mortgage uptake.

4. HPC was one of the first websites to alert attention to Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley.

5. HPC was almost alone (in the UK) in alerting people to the impending sub prime crisis, both in the US and the UK.

6. HPC was at least two years ahead of any newspaper, most economists, and the entire broadcasting network in predicting a cessation to housing inflation.

7. HPC was to my knowledge the first UK website to obliterate the myth that shared ownership was a good thing.

8. This site stood alone in challenging the myth that sustained wealth can be created by playing pass the parcel with property.

VP

Do they remember me for this? No - you shag one sheep.......