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House Price Crash Forum


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About BearNecessities

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    HPC Poster
  1. +1 It's like Judgement Day in the terminator films. Also I reckon we might see double digit falls as early as 2013
  2. very little if none. I knew Nick (I can't say why or where from) and when I knew him circa. 2009/2010 he was a broke and broken man
  3. Phone the EA up and point out that the house was first marketed at £x on y date, this then increased to £z on w date. State that you are possible interested but considered the property undervalued and would like them to increase the asking price again before you are prepared to view it. see what they say
  4. There seems to be some anecdotal evidence that for the first time since early 2009, house prices in the south and in particular commuter areas around London are properly falling. I wonder, that given that these properties are priced nominally very highly whether this might kickstart a HPC and get us some decent YOY falls in the next few months. This is my theory about what has been happening over the last couple of years, where the surveys would have you believe that house prices have been steady. Bog standard house somewhere up north has been falling about 10% pa. Original Value £100,000, Value after 1 year = £90,000 Similar house either side of the M25 has not changed much in value Original Value £250,000 Value after 1 year = £250,000 Combined Value has gone from £350k to £340k - a year on year drop of about 2.8%. Perhaps said house in commuter belt has even risen by 2% to £255,000 during the year - YOY figure is then a 1.4% fall. Add to the equation that a large amount of the population (and hence housing stock) is located in theses high house price areas (perhaps 2 houses there for every 1 up north) and the fall in value of 10% for the northern property is completely wiped out by a mere 2% rise in the south. Should the fortunes of these areas be reversed and property prices fall in the south, the percentage falls are going to be a whole lot higher as the volume and high original nominal prices in the south will distort the figures in favour of a crash. I would be interested in the how the psyche of this house price obsessed nation of ours would react to Haliwide and LR reporting drops of 8-10%, with the bank and the government out of bullets - I do believe there is a decent chance of these types of figures being hit over the winter period.
  5. Something is definately afoot since the Olympics. In my area (SW Herts) there were 42 separate price reductions in the area I was monitoring in September (previous monthly record was 33 in 3 years of monitoring). The rout has continued into October with 11 further reductions in the first 5 days
  6. There was a pause for breath in parts of the south east at the same time the north was going mental
  7. Update for WD3 area, previously very hot in terms of high house prices. Now 42 reductions in September (nearly 70 if new homes and those that have since gone u/o are counted). In 3 years of monitoring. previous monthly record was 34. Also proportion of homes on the market with reduced prices now over 40% for the first time in 2 years. data from Zoopla - so impossible to tell whether many are coming back from SSTC but I have seen a few that I remember. Some big drops (around 15-20%) also appearing. Cheapest 1 bed flat is now under £140K Cheapest 2 bed house is now £210K Cheapest 3 bed house is now £250K All ridiculous prices still, but the lowest I have seen since I started monitoring. If this can be maintened and a similar pattern is occurring in other semi-desirable commuter spots near London then the Haliwide figures through winter could start to get interesting.
  8. I monitor my area (WD3 - Rickmansworth / Chorleywood) using Zoopla. Generally prices have been steady or have edged up slightly in the last year and are not that far off 2007 levels. The number of reductions struggles to get past 20-25 per month against an average stock of 180-200 at any given time. I am encouraged that so far in September there have been 23 reductions and the stock level has increased towards 250 (not sure if that is because Zoopla have more agents than before, or more stuff is coming to market). The area is really overpriced. Flats £180k+ 3 beds in crappy ex council areas £300k-£350K, 3-4 beds in nicer parts usually north of £500K. It's not a bad area and the rail link to London Marylebone is very good, but these prices are silly. I want 30% off before I consider entering the market.
  9. Sadly for all conspiricy theorists, it is a co-incidence. Have a friend that works in IT there. They have been having trouble with the banks mainframe system for nearly a week and it fell over completely yesterday.
  10. Syriza almost certainly finishes as top party in any new election, which with their 50 bonus seats would allow them to form a coalition with anti austerity parties, which in turn means Greece will have to exit the Euro.
  11. Very anecdotal I know, but my own HPC index has shown signs of taking off a little in the last couple of months. Without boring anyone with the mechanics, its an index derived from the relationship between the number of new instructions, number and level of price reductions and number of properties going SSTC. It's not that scientific because I just use my postcode area and data from Zoopla. That said in the 4 years or so that I have been doing it, the index has more or less tracked the LR index for my area, albeit with a lag. March and April (so far) have seen the HPC index reach it's highest level since the bank cut to 0.5% and although some way off the levels I experienced when I started this method in 2008, we seem to be accelorating. Also, I live in an area where prices are hot, so if they drop here, they will definately drop in other areas. Not sure what is causing it because there are still buyers about - possibly a ripple effect from the stamp duty increases for large properites.
  12. Sorry, it's a dump. But it is zone 5 and most of zone 5 in the eastern semi circle of London on an arc from Croydon, Bromley, Sidcup, Dagenham, Romford, parts of Enfield are pretty unpleasant. To the west is not so bad, but you still have places like Hounslow and Harrow that are pretty grim. My best guess at the reason is that as large areas of zones 2 and 3 have become gentrified in the last 30 years, the rough areas and people have spread out a little. Romford and other parts of Essex is particularly bad as a lot of the east end gangsters of the 60s and 70s relocated there as they retired and their traditional locations became much more racially diverse. I know, because I lived there for about 5 years. Havering has the lowest house prices of any London Borough north of the Thames. The other issue is that although the transport links to the City of London are pretty good, if you work in the west end it is a nightmare. Quite often at peak periods I would have to wait for 3 or more tubes to arrive at Liverpool Street before I was able to board a train and on average my journey took an hour and 20 minutes each way. Crossrail, when it finishes will help transport links (as well as parts of South East London), but whether it serves to drag the areas up, remains to be seen.
  13. Most think tank reports have political bias, so you have to take that into account and normally treat with large dolops of sodium chloride. I think history will actually show that the stimulus spending efforts of the last administration were largely ineffective, whether they were actually damaging is quite a long way further down the road and I'm not sure I agree that it was. In a normal recession what they did might have worked but a debt depression is another matter entirely. One could hardly expect them to know the difference given that it was long after the horse had bolted that they actually realised the field was empty, but the same could be said of the tories, who probably cost themselves a majority government by not recognising what was going on sooner and even when they did, they pointed the finger towards the wrong places, which actually allowed Clown and co to gain some credability that they hardly deserved when it came to saving the world etc.
  14. mind boggling isn't it. not the most expensive in the area however. http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/14707152?search_identifier=8d071998d544d1b089c9ff8092a1b84a
  15. http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/4383326?search_identifier=0e3272c4f9e97c46fa032d805760975e They did - They increased it by £20,000.00
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