BearNecessities

+1 It's like Judgement Day in the terminator films. Also I reckon we might see double digit falls as early as 2013

very little if none. I knew Nick (I can't say why or where from) and when I knew him circa. 2009/2010 he was a broke and broken man

Phone the EA up and point out that the house was first marketed at £x on y date, this then increased to £z on w date. State that you are possible interested but considered the property undervalued and would like them to increase the asking price again before you are prepared to view it. see what they say

There seems to be some anecdotal evidence that for the first time since early 2009, house prices in the south and in particular commuter areas around London are properly falling. I wonder, that given that these properties are priced nominally very highly whether this might kickstart a HPC and get us some decent YOY falls in the next few months. This is my theory about what has been happening over the last couple of years, where the surveys would have you believe that house prices have been steady. Bog standard house somewhere up north has been falling about 10% pa. Original Value £100,000, Value after 1 year = £90,000 Similar house either side of the M25 has not changed much in value Original Value £250,000 Value after 1 year = £250,000 Combined Value has gone from £350k to £340k - a year on year drop of about 2.8%. Perhaps said house in commuter belt has even risen by 2% to £255,000 during the year - YOY figure is then a 1.4% fall. Add to the equation that a large amount of the population (and hence housing stock) is located in theses high house price areas (perhaps 2 houses there for every 1 up north) and the fall in value of 10% for the northern property is completely wiped out by a mere 2% rise in the south. Should the fortunes of these areas be reversed and property prices fall in the south, the percentage falls are going to be a whole lot higher as the volume and high original nominal prices in the south will distort the figures in favour of a crash. I would be interested in the how the psyche of this house price obsessed nation of ours would react to Haliwide and LR reporting drops of 8-10%, with the bank and the government out of bullets - I do believe there is a decent chance of these types of figures being hit over the winter period.

Something is definately afoot since the Olympics. In my area (SW Herts) there were 42 separate price reductions in the area I was monitoring in September (previous monthly record was 33 in 3 years of monitoring). The rout has continued into October with 11 further reductions in the first 5 days

There was a pause for breath in parts of the south east at the same time the north was going mental

Update for WD3 area, previously very hot in terms of high house prices. Now 42 reductions in September (nearly 70 if new homes and those that have since gone u/o are counted). In 3 years of monitoring. previous monthly record was 34. Also proportion of homes on the market with reduced prices now over 40% for the first time in 2 years. data from Zoopla - so impossible to tell whether many are coming back from SSTC but I have seen a few that I remember. Some big drops (around 15-20%) also appearing. Cheapest 1 bed flat is now under £140K Cheapest 2 bed house is now £210K Cheapest 3 bed house is now £250K All ridiculous prices still, but the lowest I have seen since I started monitoring. If this can be maintened and a similar pattern is occurring in other semi-desirable commuter spots near London then the Haliwide figures through winter could start to get interesting.

I monitor my area (WD3 - Rickmansworth / Chorleywood) using Zoopla. Generally prices have been steady or have edged up slightly in the last year and are not that far off 2007 levels. The number of reductions struggles to get past 20-25 per month against an average stock of 180-200 at any given time. I am encouraged that so far in September there have been 23 reductions and the stock level has increased towards 250 (not sure if that is because Zoopla have more agents than before, or more stuff is coming to market). The area is really overpriced. Flats £180k+ 3 beds in crappy ex council areas £300k-£350K, 3-4 beds in nicer parts usually north of £500K. It's not a bad area and the rail link to London Marylebone is very good, but these prices are silly. I want 30% off before I consider entering the market.

Sadly for all conspiricy theorists, it is a co-incidence. Have a friend that works in IT there. They have been having trouble with the banks mainframe system for nearly a week and it fell over completely yesterday.

Syriza almost certainly finishes as top party in any new election, which with their 50 bonus seats would allow them to form a coalition with anti austerity parties, which in turn means Greece will have to exit the Euro.

Very anecdotal I know, but my own HPC index has shown signs of taking off a little in the last couple of months. Without boring anyone with the mechanics, its an index derived from the relationship between the number of new instructions, number and level of price reductions and number of properties going SSTC. It's not that scientific because I just use my postcode area and data from Zoopla. That said in the 4 years or so that I have been doing it, the index has more or less tracked the LR index for my area, albeit with a lag. March and April (so far) have seen the HPC index reach it's highest level since the bank cut to 0.5% and although some way off the levels I experienced when I started this method in 2008, we seem to be accelorating. Also, I live in an area where prices are hot, so if they drop here, they will definately drop in other areas. Not sure what is causing it because there are still buyers about - possibly a ripple effect from the stamp duty increases for large properites.

Most think tank reports have political bias, so you have to take that into account and normally treat with large dolops of sodium chloride. I think history will actually show that the stimulus spending efforts of the last administration were largely ineffective, whether they were actually damaging is quite a long way further down the road and I'm not sure I agree that it was. In a normal recession what they did might have worked but a debt depression is another matter entirely. One could hardly expect them to know the difference given that it was long after the horse had bolted that they actually realised the field was empty, but the same could be said of the tories, who probably cost themselves a majority government by not recognising what was going on sooner and even when they did, they pointed the finger towards the wrong places, which actually allowed Clown and co to gain some credability that they hardly deserved when it came to saving the world etc.

mind boggling isn't it. not the most expensive in the area however. http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/14707152?search_identifier=8d071998d544d1b089c9ff8092a1b84a

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/4383326?search_identifier=0e3272c4f9e97c46fa032d805760975e They did - They increased it by £20,000.00

I disagree strongly with a mansion tax Houses are highly illiquid as a measure of wealth. Raise CGT and cut income tax, so they are at the same level and then charge CGT on all property sales. This could even be done retrospectively if sensbly tapered off.

Always brings a smile to my face http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/french-trader-was-forced-to-work-30-hours-a-week-20080125680/

The fundamentals that led to the 2007 bust were built over successive administrations so it isn't a party political issue really. One thing that does confuse people on here is that they remember fondly 1997 house prices. However, they forget that house prices in the mid 90s were actually somewhat undervalued in comparison to long terms trends, due entirely to the 1989 bust, which was unique to this country and entirely caused by the economic policy of the government of the day. That said, unless we totally did an Ireland or even an Iceland under a hypothetical Tory administration (and there are good arguments that we would not have) then the debt and deficit would have probably been somewhat lower as of today, simply because the Tory philosophy is to take such matters seriously, whereas Brown/Balls et al are firmly in the denial camp when it comes to such matters. As for house prices, they would be pretty much as they are now I suspect. As I have said, these things were not party political issues. If I had one silver bullet to aim at anyone responsible for the credit bubble that fuelled house price inflation, I would probably have to fire it at Alan Greenspan.

meanwhile, here in Rickmansworth, Herts, supply keeps on growing. (Props on market up from 230 to 244 in last 3 weeks) 18 price reductions in May so far alone. (25 in the whole of April) Bring it on!! source: zoopla

Shame I was rather looking forward to Brown being forced to praise the UK for deficit reduction or more likely to be giving us a hard time for not reducing it quick enough. Would really show his bum chum Balls up to be the complete f*ckwit that he is

You are Ed Balls and I claim my £5 prize.

I still maintain that the scheme may actually result in slight downwards pressure in pricing over the longer term. Although demand will be stimulated, one could argue that supply may also benefit. In addition, because the scheme is restricted to new builds those selling at second hand properties at that part of the market will need to be more aggresive with price cuts than perhaps they are at the moment

Advocating a house price crash would be the shortest political suicide note in history so it can be no suprise nor should anyone be overly disappointed if the housing minister doesn't come out and say that. Privately, the left of the government (which is from Cameron left wards through to the lib dems and includes Shapps, I imagine) acknowledge that housing affordability isn't at a sustainable level and are trying to manage a gradual deflation in real terms - which is probably in the best interests of the country, if not the best interests of frustrated priced out wannabe home owners. Contrasting Grant Shapps performance against that of Ed Balls who was getting toasted by Jeff Randell last night really does show that there is real differential between the main parties for perhaps the first time since Blair became leader of the Labour party. From my point of view, I am comforted to an extent that we have at least 4 more years of governance from a coalision (I don't think that the Tories on there own would be quite the same) that puts what they think is best for the country ahead of populist short term vote winning tactics of the previous 13 years.

By restricting the Home Deposit scheme to new homes, will it result in non new builds looking to sell at that end of the market to cut more agressively to compete? Just trying to put a positive HPC Spin on this

Thanks for that Ben Now, can you tell me how many people QE is going to kill in the developing world

nor would i if I could earn a six figure salary elsewhere