Oh Dear, Off Plan Worries

[nova]

http://www.singingpig.co.uk/discussion/forum/?f=7&m=51248

[Ah-so]

More evidence that it is greed that makes you poor, not wealthy.

It is another sign of market madness when people really believed that they could get a profit from investing 225k in a poorly built 2 bedroom flat in a dump like Strartford. Did he really think that someone would pay him a grand a month for laminate flooring?

[Cassandra]

There is an excellent reply in the thead on SP from James Smith an accountant:

Hang on a minute, a property is worth what someone is paying for it.

If people are originally paying £225,000 it is by definition worth £225,000 at that time with all the hype and expectation. If your best offer is now £190k, its worth £190k. If you think the buyer is after your flat at undervalue then don’t accept the offer. If there are 3 for sale just on your block it would suggest that supply is higher than demand and buyers can name their price. Ie it really is worth £190k. You don’t HAVE to accept this valuation. Shop around as a consumer, and look at the land reg as suggested below.

On the wider topic I am not at all surprised by the overpriced off-plan buys. Where I used to live in Ipswich there are some massively overpriced flats (IMO) down by the waterfront flogged off largely to people from outside the area. They took ages to sell - odd that (!). My own BTL (about 2 mins walk - a large 3 bed vic terrace) was worth half the price of these properties when they where started about 3 or 4 years ago. The advertised rents where then about £1000/month. Mine then let for £500. Both ballpark 6% yields, which is about par. Now they are advertised at circa £750/month or lower, so presumably get about £700/ month. Mine is actually let for £600, going up to £625 shortly. Longer term I would be surprised if a 10 year old 2 bed flat will let for substantially more than a large 3 bed terrace 2 mins walk away, even if the area is a bit rougher (and it is). I therefore cant see the prices will be much higher longer term. They started off at double (!). I was hoping these properties would drag up the initially rather poor area and my house would be on the edge of Yuppie Ville, but all I think is happening is that the area is dragging the flats value down to realistic local levels. The huge number of more recently built flats are certainly at far more modest prices than those paid a few year ago, while my let property has gone up in value.

The same story is probably repeated all around the country. BTL’s have pushed up the cost of new build flats, and there is very little “real†first time buyer activity. Even one of my experienced professional developers in Cardiff brought two off plan flats that he cant shift for what he paid and the rental yields are subsequently poor.

Its all comes back to basic supply and demand and knowing the area you are buying in.

Exactly!!

[Who Knows]

I bought these magic beans from a guy down the market ... he promised me they would lead me to a pot of gold ... now where can I get a good lawyer someone has got to pay...

[mercsl]

Best to buy older properties, one or which a proper external market has already been established for price and maintenance charges. Also a lot of the new developments need a 'chav' housing element to them nowdays, usually you end up overlooking a block full of them with the associated problems(loud music ect)...and 25K for a parking space. worse is the ones painted themed colors and names(one in Deptford is horrible Se8 i think), going to look awful in 5 years time.

[right_freds_dead]

this kind of thing will define the house price crash of 2005.

people looking like suckers who bought daft flats at crazy prices hoping to make a quick buck. sort of financial pass the parcel. with no intention of living in them as a home. bought to profiteer.

only the musics stopped.

i would not like to be one of the last standing fools to be having to pay 220k for a poxy, box flat thats going to be worth 90k in 5 years time.

suckers..........no one wants your cheap and nasty barratt flats.

[The Masked Tulip]

I used to work in Docklands in the Banks - worst 6 months of my Life. A terrible, miserable place but... Every day I used to pass Stratford on the Docklands Light Railway and loads of people would get on the train at the station there bound for the banks.

I assumed that flats would be in demand in that part of the World if, for anything, the convenience factor plus the huge numbers of contractors who work in Docklands and who need somewhere to rent.

If this guy is having trouble then, ahem, trouble is ahead.

I like the accountant's news that he knows a pro developer who can't shift two flats in Cardiff also.

[newaccount99]

I'm convinced it will be the "city lifestyle appartments" which will lead, and suffer, the worst from any downturn.

In my town, small appartments with, barely, double bedrooms and tiny (smeg) kitchen have been attracting values well above those of three bedroom semis with garage, half decent garden and in respectable areas.

Lets face it, these "apartments" are just flats with naff parking and neighbours, not only to the left and right, but above and below. No doubt inspiredby by the likes or penthouses along the Thames the buyers have yet to fully realise that views of Basingstoke rail station just don't command quite so high rental or re-sell values.

I can only assume demand for them has been fuelled by BTL'ers looking to secure that "young professional tenent" seeking a "city lifestyle". Unfortunately these proffessionals are a limited breed especially the ones willing to spend £1000 pcm to live in a town with no "lifestyle".

With 20% neighbours more affordable housing than city professional and new burberry clad neighbours moving in now that rents are sub-£700 the owners may be finding there pads offering less "city lifestyle" and more "inner-city" living.......

[London-loser]

I always thought BTL King was a complete prat. Now I know for sure:

That's the first time someone's tried to convince me that a £30K loss is infact a breakeven scenario.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He's clearly not a complete idiot though:

There's going to be a lot of people put off investing in properties for life if this carries on!

[Flick]

THank you for posting that thread, it made my morning

(almost chokng on my coffee)

[The Masked Tulip]

Come on Dr. Bubb, you're telling me that you would not pay 345K for this lovely property...

I've had a good look at it and I am sure that Noddy would have no problem fitting his car into the garage. Look at the photo - on such a bright sunny day look at all the sunlight flooding into those windows... Hang on, they look a tad dark don't they?

Odd, the hosue has never been lived in and it is already up for sale via an agent and not the original developer.

http://agents.home-sale.co.uk/asp/Property...olours=1&page=2

[Michael]

I'm convinced it will be the "city lifestyle appartments" which will lead, and suffer, the worst from any downturn.

In my town, small appartments with, barely, double bedrooms and tiny (smeg) kitchen have been attracting values well above those of three bedroom semis with garage, half decent garden and in respectable areas.

Lets face it, these "apartments" are just flats with naff parking and neighbours, not only to the left and right, but above and below. No doubt inspiredby by the likes or penthouses along the Thames the buyers have yet to fully realise that views of Basingstoke rail station just don't command quite so high rental or re-sell values.

I can only assume demand for them has been fuelled by BTL'ers looking to secure that "young professional tenent" seeking a "city lifestyle". Unfortunately these proffessionals are a limited breed especially the ones willing to spend £1000 pcm to live in a town with no "lifestyle".

With 20% neighbours more affordable housing than city professional and new burberry clad neighbours moving in now that rents are sub-£700 the owners may be finding there pads offering less "city lifestyle" and more "inner-city" living.......

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

all over the uk these tiny ''city lifestyle apartments'' are as expensive as a reasonable semi in the same town.......so whatever the rest of the market does these things will bomb!......where i live (yorks) these developments are always surrounded by to let and for sale signs.....

They're invariably built in urban slightly shabby areas rather than leafy green suburbs........and in some cases eg central leeds and manchester actually built along side their much-derided 1960s counterparts.........Tower blocks!

All you get for your money is an upmarket kitchen and bathroom ......

and knowing you're cool living in an inner city.....

The market for these things is extremely limited at the best of times ......but at £200k for a pokey flat in a dodgy part of inner leeds ......This is undoubtedly a bubble........It's the rest of the market Whose future is open to debate!

[Culpability Brown]

"City Living" is the ultimate symbol of this speculative investment cycle.

It so made sense for developers to build them with their brown field subsidies because they had people queing up to buy them.

Knock them up cheap sell them off expensive. The trick of course was for the buyers to call the top of the market before selling the damn worthless things on!

But, a lot of them didn't even realise they were playing a speculative market and are now left holding their d**cs, scratching their heads, presumably swinging from something tree like.

[Cassandra]

One factor I think here is also that new housing sells at a premium as compared to houses/flats that are only a year or two old. People like to be able to think that they are the first occupants. Same effect as with cars where by driving a new car off the forecourt it will immediately lose several thousand in value.

In a rising market this "new" premium will be masked as prices go up rapidly anyway. However when prices are static or falling then any would be sellers will be in for a big shock.

[The Masked Tulip]

There was a report out a few months back which looked at the price of new property in the UK and concluded that, whilst initially there was premium, contrary to most people's view new properties generally fell in price after sale and usually did not recover their value until about 5 years later.

Of course, in this bubble that has been completely masked and, if anything, that fall will now be very exaggerated.

[Night Owl]

I've had a good look at it and I am sure that Noddy would have no problem fitting his car into the garage.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So funny - I really don't understand how you're suppose to get your car into one of those garages. If you drove it in rather than pushing, you would have to get out the sun roof! I suppose it is more of a bike storage and tinkering area.

Great thread by the way, highly entertaining. These new builds are really at risk.

[Ah-so]

One factor I think here is also that new housing sells at a premium as compared to houses/flats that are only a year or two old. People like to be able to think that they are the first occupants. Same effect as with cars where by driving a new car off the forecourt it will immediately lose several thousand in value.

In a rising market this "new" premium will be masked as prices go up rapidly anyway. However when prices are static or falling then any would be sellers will be in for a big shock.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Especially as most of these flats are piles of junk. They are made out of wood and plaster. The best built bit of them are the fire doors. After 4 years the age shows worse than a car!

[Sledgehead]

I just love the way so called property investors :

1 ) are so sure of favourable valuations that they can't help but share them with you, no matter how bad the form (spoiling good food and charming conversation);

2 ) are so skeptical of unfavourable valuations as to illicit an entirely reflexive need to explore the possibility of legal redress.

Two words : sore loser.

[he who dares]

Bah! city living, any one who bought into that crap has watched one episode to many of friends, we have all been brainwashed by tawdry american programmes/ideals.

They are not apartments they are called flats and you used to only live in a flat if you could not afford a house!

City living, who can afford a 1 bed "apartment" in city center manchester for 295k, with panoramic views of the drug dealers estates at moss side or if you look closely enough form your twenty eighth floor ivory tower you can see the chavs nicking your stereo out of your car.

I predict most of these urban living projects will end up like the dome, a white elephant and the local councils will snap them up in a few years and instead of housing your high earning yuppie type they will house the local drug dealer/car jacker.

A 295k FLAT for a chav, completly bonkers!

[Cassandra]

Bah! city living, any one who bought into that crap has watched one episode to many of friends, we have all been brainwashed by tawdry american programmes/ideals.

They are not apartments they are called flats and you used to only live in a flat if you could not afford a house!

City living, who can afford a 1 bed "apartment" in city center manchester for 295k, with panoramic views of the drug dealers estates at moss side or if you look closely enough form your twenty eighth floor ivory tower you can see the chavs nicking your stereo out of your car.

I predict most of these urban living projects will end up like the dome, a white elephant and the local councils will snap them up in a few years and instead of housing your high earning yuppie type they will house the local drug dealer/car jacker.

A 295k FLAT for a chav, completly bonkers!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I imagine these apartment blocks will go the same way as the 60's high rise council blocks. In a few years they will be unliveable. Councils have been tearing down many of the mistakes made 40 years ago since no one wanted to live in them.

[zzg113]

I imagine these apartment blocks will go the same way as the 60's high rise council blocks. In a few years they will be unliveable. Councils have been tearing down many of the mistakes made 40 years ago since no one wanted to live in them.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We seem to be making the same mistakes over and over again. Hasn't anyone learnt anything from the mistakes of the 60's and 70's and its bleak and brutal architecture?

[Culpability Brown]

There were / are opportunities to convert mills and the like into desirable living spaces.

On the whole however this has not been the policy and the predictable outcome has been the construction of poor quality "halls of residence" style accomodation.

Fine when you're a student but beyond that........limited.

[Marina]

I'd love to be able to add a reply to the Singing Pig thread but I can't be bothered to register.

There is all that tosh about valuations being wrong or fiddled etc. Dear oh dear.

The valuation in 2002 of 220k was spot on because the wally who started the thread paid it. He's surely not saying he paid more that the place was worth - it was worth what he paid for it.

Best chuckle for a long time.

[newaccount99]

I DISAGREE.

If Energy prices leap, as I expect, then City living will continue to be in vogue.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think you are taking the city living a bit too literaly. These "city lifestyle" apartments exist everywhere, don't actualy need a city. We have several new developments in Basingstoke TOWN centre yet within 1000yds there are plenty of decent terrace/semi and detached props at similar prices.

Good article from the local rag this week. "Parking nightmare: The clamping ground where an extra car space can cost £10,000"....."there are only 4 visitors places for 84 finished flats and one permit per home..."

Oops that's going to be a real sh*tter now that the latest phase of 375+ is hitting the market then:

Victory Hill

[Ah-so]

I think you are taking the city living a bit too literaly. These "city lifestyle" apartments exist everywhere, don't actualy need a city. We have several new developments in Basingstoke TOWN centre yet within 1000yds there are plenty of decent terrace/semi and detached props at similar prices.

Good article from the local rag this week. "Parking nightmare: The clamping ground where an extra car space can cost £10,000"....."there are only 4 visitors places for 84 finished flats and one permit per home..."

Oops that's going to be a real sh*tter now that the latest phase of 375+ is hitting the market  then:

Victory Hill

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I see that 2 blocks have already been taken by housing associations, which could mean the "city lifestyle" could take on an extra edge.

Pursuing this track, add 10 years on to the buildings (squinting helps!) and the deterioration that will follow with the shoddy building standards, and what do you get? A pretty good resemblence of a council estate.

Then imagine the BTLs cannot let to anyone but the council, coupled with the fact that the kids from the housing association flats will have nothing to do but mess around after school in the roads, things could go down hill pretty quickly.

I bet they want about 170,000 for these. They could be woth less than half that in a decade.