Gold Is In Meltdown

[carseller]

Just talking to one of my outlaws who is into this stuff. He said buyers for gold are NOT paying anywhere near current market levels as it takes them too long to turn the gold around and by that time it may have dropped another $100. Its not like dumping stocks which go at the click of a mouse.

Gold may prove to be only a little beter than houses in a down market. A bit sticky and hard to unload in a hurry without taking a below current market hit price-wise.

I wonder if GF is buying more or seeing this as a selling opportunity???

Edit: big bounce back above $912. They wont let it stay below $1000?

I think he is selling, he should. I feel this is a turning point, not only in the price of gold, but an end in the inflation / deflation debate.

It's deflation. The dollar is making a comeback, and is the thing to buy now.

Look at the dollar, it's yield have practically collapsed, less than 0,5 % !!!! Bernanke have only 0,5 % to go on interest rates before the US is trapped in the liquidity trap that Japan have had for so long, meaning lowering rates from here will not increase the money supply. When japan were in the same situation in after their housing bubble popped, the yen doubled. So I am calling a strong dollar.

Edited March 20, 2008 by carseller

[Ologhai Jones]

I think he is selling, he should. I feel this is a turning point, not only in the price of gold, but an end in the inflation / deflation debate.

On what do you base your view that GF is selling?

(I did reply to RB's query earlier in this thread with my own view by the way: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1023774).

[domo]

Let's just recap on the collapse of gold so far...

By about mid-afternoon on Tuesday (UK time), just looking at the spot-price of gold, there were no signs of its imminent 'meltdown'. It was hovering around $1000/oz, sure, but when it had only just achieved $1030 for the first time in its history, and when it's practically the definition of a volatile market, this didn't seem particularly remarkable.

Less than 48 hours later, its price has dropped by about 10%...

Oh, wait a minute -- I missed a step...

At around 2:30pm on Tuesday afternoon, 'cgnao' said: "GBP will shortly bounce and the yellow shiny stuff I can't mention is just about to be hammered. Accept the gift and get your place on the lifeboat."

Spooky, eh?

crapnao says lots of things

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

I can confirm this; the energy needed for one 'fill' of the LHC at CERN would power a small city for a day. It uses an entire power station's output. A proton fill at DESY in hamburg lasted a few hours and that cost EUR20,000 in electricity.

Besides that NO THEY CANT MAKE GOLD in particle accellerators. I work at one sometimes; I should know.

Yeah I did some work experience there one summer as a student (that was before they finished the LHC though). When you see the sheer scale of the place with your own eyes (magnets the size of houses, mile upon mile of super-cooled superconductors etc) you would simply laugh at the idea that this equipment could be use to produce anything cheaply!

[carseller]

On what do you base your view that GF is selling?

(I did reply to RB's query earlier in this thread with my own view by the way: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1023774).

The fact that the US is re entering the troubles it had in 2001 when the gold price was down at 250. It's the same fundamental forces driving the markets.

Look at the Shanghai, and all the stocks markets in the world, they have not had a correction, they have rolled over, and the best place to be now is short the stock market.

I think Robert Prechter have been right all along, he have just had terrible timing, but at least unlike many others he have known what is going on. Now it's all coming down in a deflationary crash.

I listened to his radio interviews the other day, and he make so much sense in todays marketplace.

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Prechter.html

Especially the last interview.

Edited March 20, 2008 by carseller

[Ologhai Jones]

The fact that the US is re entering the troubles it had in 2001 when the gold price was down at 250. It's the same fundamental forces driving the markets.

Look at the Shanghai, and all the stocks markets in the world, they have not had a correction, they have rolled over, and the best place to be now is short the stock market.

I think Robert Prechter have been right all along, he have just had terrible timing, but at least unlike many others he have known what is going on. Now it's all coming down in a deflationary crash.

That's not what I was asking, which you can see if you re-read my reply -- on what do you base your assertion that you 'think GF is selling'?

[domo]

COMMODITIES MELTDOWN

March 20 (gloomberg) -- Gold headed for its biggest weekly drop in 25 years, leading a drop in commodity prices, after the dollar rallied and concern mounted a U.S.-led slowdown in the global economy will reduce consumption of raw materials.

Oil fell below $100 a barrel (FROM $111)for the first time since March 5, soybeans dropped for a second day and copper had its biggest two-day decline in seven months. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials is having its worst week since at least 1997, led by declines in soybeans, cocoa and cotton.

There is ``a glaring divergence between escalating commodity prices and waning world economic growth,'' James Steel, an analyst with HSBC Securities in New York, wrote in a report e- mailed today. It is ``no longer assured that commodity price appreciation is a safe one-way bet.''

Gold in London has plunged 12 percent from its record $1,032.70 an ounce on March 17 after the Federal Reserve cut its overnight-lending rate less than expected by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent. The dollar has recovered 2.8 percent from an all- time low against the euro and rallied 4.6 percent from a 12-year low against the yen.

Commodities have advanced in each of the past six years, driven by demand from China seeking to feed its population and power its expanding economy. The dollar's slide has boosted demand for raw materials, which become cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, while some investors are seeking higher returns following a slump in equities.

`Absolutely Enormous'

The money flowing into commodities is ``absolutely enormous,'' James Proudlock, commodity product head for Europe, Middle East and Asia at JPMorgan Securities Ltd., said at a sugar conference yesterday in Geneva.

There are 361 commodity funds that had $98 billion in assets as of Feb. 28, compared with 345 funds with $80 billion at the end of 2007, he said.(kaaabbbooooooommmmmm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

The rally, according to Paul Touradji of the $3.5 billion hedge fund Touradji Capital Management LP, was a ``buying orgy'' that had inflated prices and increased the risks of a collapse.

Commodities ``have all gone parabolically higher on frenzied money flow,'' New York-based Touradji wrote to clients March 10. ``Unless that money flow continues ad infinitum, in which case prices would go to infinity, then the fundamentals had better be improving as quickly as prices have been, otherwise there is nothing else to keep the markets at these levels.''

Good for Nothing

The UBS Maturity Commodity Index has slumped almost 10 percent from a record Feb. 29. The gauge has dropped in three of the past four sessions.

``A protracted slowdown is ultimately not good for commodities as people won't have enough money to buy anything,'' said Hong Kong-based Dick Poon, manager of the precious metals trading desk at Heraeus Ltd., a unit of processor Heraeus Holding GmbH in Germany.

Gold for immediate delivery dropped as much as 4.1 percent to $905.41 an ounce, the lowest since Feb. 19, and traded at $914.71 as of 10:25 a.m. in London. The metal's 8.8 percent drop this week would be the biggest since March 1983. The U.K. and U.S. are on holiday tomorrow.

The precious metal may slump as low as $870, Poon said in a telephone interview. ``The run-up was due mainly to speculative long positions and these are being liquidated.''

Oil soared to a record this year even as analysts forecast that consumption will increase less than in 2007. Crude oil for May delivery fell as much as $2.95, or 2.9 percent, to $99.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $100.11 as of 9:52 a.m. in London.

[carseller]

That's not what I was asking, which you can see if you re-read my reply -- on what do you base your assertion that you 'think GF is selling'?

That the factors driving commodities bubble are over, the speculative money are leaving, I am so tired hearing Jim Rogers on bloomberg talking about supply and demand, maybe he is finished selling his new book now as China and Commodities come crashing down. If GF is buying, then I think he is very early.

The dollar will get stronger now, that's where all the money will go.

Edited March 20, 2008 by carseller

[Steve Netwriter]

Just talking to one of my outlaws who is into this stuff. He said buyers for gold are NOT paying anywhere near current market levels as it takes them too long to turn the gold around and by that time it may have dropped another $100. Its not like dumping stocks which go at the click of a mouse.

Gold may prove to be only a little beter than houses in a down market. A bit sticky and hard to unload in a hurry without taking a below current market hit price-wise.

I wonder if GF is buying more or seeing this as a selling opportunity???

Edit: big bounce back above $912. They wont let it stay below $1000?

He says: "Send them my regards. And, no, not a selling opportunity, but a buying opportunity."

[Leonard Hatred]

That flat was my pension! Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

[R K]

He says: "Send them my regards. And, no, not a selling opportunity, but a buying opportunity."

He's correct. The selling opportunity was 1030. Pity he missed it.

[debt_scared]

That the factors driving commodities bubble are over, the speculative money are leaving, I am so tired hearing Jim Rogers on bloomberg talking about supply and demand, maybe he is finished selling his new book now as China and Commodities come crashing down. If GF is buying, then I think he is very early.

The dollar will get stronger now, that's where all the money will go.

Has public policy suddenly changed then???

CBs have tightened up collateral requirements for loans? Someone influential has issued a statement saying banks that fail won't be bailed out at public expense? The housing market in US is recovering? Competitive currency devaluations are being reversed?

Or maybe...

Inflation rates have dramatically fallen? Equities are expected to rise in real terms in the impending recession?

I must have missed these sudden reversals.

[sossij]

No it can't. Have you any idea how much such an accelerator would cost! (not just to build, but also the ridiculous amounts of energy required to use it).

I can confirm this; the energy needed for one 'fill' of the LHC at CERN would power a small city for a day. It uses an entire power station's output. A proton fill at DESY in hamburg lasted a few hours and that cost EUR20,000 in electricity.

Besides that NO THEY CANT MAKE GOLD in particle accellerators. I work at one sometimes; I should know.

I know, I was being sarcastic. In the original Gold thread I gave RB a back of the envelope calculation that showed it would take many times the age of the known Universe just to make a single mole of AU an atom at a time, or even if you were able to manufacture and assemble billions of gold atoms at a time. It's a simple calculation which I urged him to try but I'm afraid he doesn't understand how massive Avagadro's number is.

Edited March 20, 2008 by sossij

[The Matador]

crapnao says lots of things

Indeed. Less then 24 hours earlier he was saying

They want the DOW back above 12,000 and gold back below $1000 but they can't.

[Guest_chris c-t_*]

I know, I was being sarcastic. In the original Gold thread I gave RB a back of the envelope calculation that showed it would take many times the age of the known Universe just to make a single mole of AU an atom at a time, even if you were able to manufacture and assemble billions of gold atoms at a time. It's a simple calculation which I urged him to try but I'm afraid he doesn't understand how massive Avagadro's number is.

- I know you were just having fun.

[sossij]

- I know you were just having fun.

Heh heh

[Sledgehead]

No it can't [be made ina particle accelerator]. Have you any idea how much such an accelerator would cost! (not just to build, but also the ridiculous amounts of energy required to use it).

Is it any easier / cheaper to make Xenon gas?

It's just that it's 100x rarer than gold, is more inert and has more uses.

You could seal it in wafers of hardened glass and its purity could be measured spectroscopically instantly (unlike gold which could have a lead interior etc).

I reckon Xenon is the next reserve currency.

... but seriously, why not

... no, I mean joking apart, why not

... yeah but seriously.

... though secretly I'm buying salt.

... but honestly, I am ...

( )

... so anyway, in the long term, when we have to leave the earth, gold will be just too heavy to take, hence my Xe investment. No seriously. You think I'm joking?

But seriously, gold is a fetish, f'all use. Carbon nanotubes will remind us how useless it is. If "ductile" was so f**king desirable, who'd have invented viagra? Am I right or what? Go with Xe.

Seriously.

( buy salt )

Edited March 20, 2008 by Sledgehead

[carseller]

Has public policy suddenly changed then???

CBs have tightened up collateral requirements for loans? Someone influential has issued a statement saying banks that fail won't be bailed out at public expense? The housing market in US is recovering? Competitive currency devaluations are being reversed?

Or maybe...

Inflation rates have dramatically fallen? Equities are expected to rise in real terms in the impending recession?

I must have missed these sudden reversals.

The bail outs is like small water drops in a sea of contracting credit, it have no effect. In japan they exactly the same way, did it help against deflation ? No. It have just kept a ghost banking system, instead of cleaning the system out. Cash is king, M1 is decreasing. It's not higher now than in 2004.

The M3 is misleading, because it shows market to market transactions, not money printing.

It's the two last CPI measurments , inflation are falling, , the suprisingly low cut, and the extremely low yield in the dollar suggest we hare heading right towards deflation, and the speculators are picking up on the fact ,the bets on inflation are coming off very fast, thats what are changing.

Stocks will of course fall a lot in nominal terms.

Edited March 20, 2008 by carseller

[sossij]

Is it any easier / cheaper to make Xenon gas?

It's just that it's 100x rarer than gold, is more inert and has more uses.

You could seal it in wafers of hardened glass and its purity could be measured spectroscopically instantly (unlike gold which could have a lead interior etc).

I reckon Xenon is the next reserve currency.

... but seriously, why not

... no, I mean joking apart, why not

... yeah but seriously.

... though secretly I'm buying salt.

... but honestly, I am ...

( )

Excellent! I'm gonna set up XenonVault and sell individually allocated balloons of gas.

[Impartial]

I have bookmarked this specific post.

Gold is at 916, Silver is at 17.40

I am buying.

I will refer back to this thread in due course. Maybe some idiots on here need to see hard figures and facts and understand the dynamics of markets or understand the term secular, maybe look around them and understand the forces and actions of govenments/banks and their wish to save themselves, their currencies, their lifestyles, their preservation at the expense of their own people.

Maybe once in a while they need to pick up a media report or two that isn't meant for apathetic spoon fed morons.

I am not going to bother explaining to what's left on this site right now why I am buying gold or will continue to at any sign of any correction, the reason to explain myself died with the most popular thread on here and it's most prolific postsers.

I will be back..

[Guest_chris c-t_*]

I have bookmarked this specific post.

Gold is at 916, Silver is at 17.40

I am buying.

I will refer back to this thread in due course. Maybe some idiots on here need to see hard figures and facts and understand the dynamics of markets or understand the term secular, maybe look around them and understand the forces and actions of govenments/banks and their wish to save themselves, their currencies, their lifestyles, their preservation at the expense of their own people.

Maybe once in a while they need to pick up a media report or two that isn't meant for apathetic spoon fed morons.

I am not going to bother explaining to what's left on this site right now why I am buying gold or will continue to at any sign of any correction, the reason to explain myself died with the most popular thread on here and it's most prolific postsers.

I will be back..

I'm with you 100%. I do actually want a bit more down though first. I still have a few grand left to feed in. Ah well. up-up-and away from here, methinks (maybe the smackdown will give me the chance to get in)..

[domo]

I have bookmarked this specific post.

Gold is at 916, Silver is at 17.40

I am buying.

I will refer back to this thread in due course. Maybe some idiots on here need to see hard figures and facts and understand the dynamics of markets or understand the term secular, maybe look around them and understand the forces and actions of govenments/banks and their wish to save themselves, their currencies, their lifestyles, their preservation at the expense of their own people.

Maybe once in a while they need to pick up a media report or two that isn't meant for apathetic spoon fed morons.

I am not going to bother explaining to what's left on this site right now why I am buying gold or will continue to at any sign of any correction, the reason to explain myself died with the most popular thread on here and it's most prolific postsers.

I will be back..

comoan dud(e), posters are having fun here cause thats exactly the same retarded thing the bugs were doing the way up, have some humility.

Edited March 20, 2008 by domo

[carseller]

I have bookmarked this specific post.

Gold is at 916, Silver is at 17.40

I am buying.

I will refer back to this thread in due course. Maybe some idiots on here need to see hard figures and facts and understand the dynamics of markets or understand the term secular, maybe look around them and understand the forces and actions of govenments/banks and their wish to save themselves, their currencies, their lifestyles, their preservation at the expense of their own people.

Maybe once in a while they need to pick up a media report or two that isn't meant for apathetic spoon fed morons.

I am not going to bother explaining to what's left on this site right now why I am buying gold or will continue to at any sign of any correction, the reason to explain myself died with the most popular thread on here and it's most prolific postsers.

I will be back..

I think gold is going down, and you are to early to be buying now, now you should be selling, then you can rather buy it back later.

[R K]

Maybe some idiots on here need to see hard figures and facts

The secular market understands the facts and figures. It sold off 10% and 20% in 2 days for a reason. But it certainly makes more sense buying at today's prices than it did at $1000 and $21 which people were doing last week.

[thefinalbear]

Well.........if you lot don't like gold.........why don't you go and stick some cash in HBOS shares.