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House Price Crash Forum


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About carseller

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  1. I cant understand how gold can rise, with houseprices going down as a trend going forward. Gold will rise because of rising inflation ,and so will house prices, boosted by negative real interest rates. Golds rise will also express the rise in rents on a house, that may rise even faster than the price of the house, making the house cheaper, even if the price goes up. The same kind of adjustment took place in the late seventies.
  2. Oh, it is a bubble, for sure, and I think its going to go highter still, it migh have 2-5 years left. Gold have the bubble mentality, and it also have the strenght, resisting any violent corrections like other commodities, thats typical of something in a bubble. The article with the graphs you showed just prove my point, that gold is on a bubble path. I dont espect everyone to be buying gold even it is a rising bubble. The most important thing so far is the demand from institutional money, hedge funds , etc. You cant say that the nasdaq was not in a bubble in 1997 or 1998, but was in 2000. It was in a bubble during the whole cycle (because of the psychology surrounding it), and thats what I see in gold too. I have observed regular people, such as the staff in a food store discussing gold as far back as two years ago. However I dont see the lack of everyone talking about it as a proof its not a bubble. I can't remember everyone talking about crude when it was peaking in 2008, or about homebuilders for that mtter.
  3. I think gold is about to enter the final bubble stage, before peaking towards the end of this business cycle. Im sure gold already is in a bubble. Before it is that they dont make enough land, and now it is that you can't print gold. The psychology surrounding gold makes me so sure it is a bubble, similar to the Nasdaq around 1998, Homebuilders 2003, etc
  4. The facts is: the UK is 400 % Debt to GDP and is printing money with the printing press in true banana republic style.
  5. I think the correction might be over. I think Buffett's stealing of the railroad (first he want's to buy, then the BNI management jack down the 2010 outlook so the share price drop 10 dollars), and why not vote? it's just a scam, but it seems these big companies, with small owners here and there is run for their management, or minority owners, not for their majority owners, and no one dare to question Buffett, but the deal is of course good for him and his shareholders, and bad for BNI shareholders that are not short term speculators. Just look at the stake of the management, no wonder they wanted to sell to make a quick buck. The value of the company, even at 100 bucks is better than the competitors. In valuing railroads over the long haul P/S is the magical parameter. I think Gold should do well, silver, other railroads, maybe even oil seems to recover. There is starting to get some pressure on higher interest rates and inflation. The 10 year notes are starting to crack. I think China is on the way to a mega bubble. I saw the 1200 % debt to gdp ratio in Ireland, the 400 % in the UK. It's banana republics economics from here on I think. I think inflation is going to be bad once government bonds loose the speculative demand, and Asian currency management demand.
  6. My impression is that there is something about this rally since march that have taken the more seasoned child's of the great bull-market of the 1980-1990-s off guard, causing them to short it, only to get hurt by the market. Back then it was a market they could understand, fundamentals, etc. It seems the market and the economy are finding different ways to grow, in spite of worries of a japan like deflation. I think it was the same thing that happened from 2003. It's basically been a liquidity driven weak dollar even't since 2003, that went through a correction, like the 2008 version of the 87 stock market crash (for emerging market economies), only to be back on now, even it seems to be running out of steam. Stocks like Apple have been hitting new all time highs signaling the ongoing secular bull for emerging market's. I have talked to people living in Asia, and the demand for things like Iphones is insane. The biggest driver is that it's an expensive item to them, therefore it commands a premier status, not seen here, it's not like here were more or less everyone can have one without making a sacrifice. It's hard to comprehend how strong a brand Apple have established in emerging Asian market's. I think the next driver for this have to be weakness in US government bonds, and surprising strength in emerging market's. If that don't materialize then it have to drift back down.
  7. A thing you can look at as a long term investment opportunity is BNI, burlington nothern santa fe. It's like buying gold at 650-700 dollar at the price it's trading at now. That's an accurate calculation.These things were tracking eachother before the crisis. BNI was tracking CHF/USD, and GOLD (note that gold and CHF is trading totally in pair), now there is a temporary disconnect with railroad due to the weak US economy, but I think it will reconnect. I think it's one of the best and cheapest ways to get on the inflation bandwagon. It even looks like it's around a technical good entry point. It could move further down towards the 200 day moving average, but I doubt it will move beyond that. The beauty of that stock compared to gold, is that it will rally even with a strong dollar. When they get a strong economy the share price should be much higher than it is today. I think these shares are going to cross at some point. I think the reason BNI failed to track MON since 2006 were the weak US economy. With a strong economy, their charts are likely to cross. BNI vs MON
  8. Im long the dollar. That's at least one way to limit the impact of the declines.
  9. Could be, however it could also be that Goldman are playing the long side here, and think's the number is going to be a surprise on the upside. Then they have perfect time given those statements to reverse their trades. I mean, when they are selling they send that women Cohen, the permabull, on bloomberg, and when they are buying they make statements like the 2,7 % estimate. So what they really are saying is like 4 % maybe, I hope I don't sound to nuts here.
  10. The smart money is seeping into the markets now. There seems to be huge flow going into the market's now, out of nowhere. It's not short covering.
  11. Railroads became a bit oversold after the poor results and outlooks of the railroads. I think they are a big sticky due to that huge move a couple days ago. It don't have to be bullish. In general those stocks was very sticky also after November to the low earlier this year. They are holding due to inflation pressures in spite of a weak economy. The effect is similar to what is seen in gold, just not as great. From 2003-2008 the profits at many companies increased similar to the increase in the price of gold. That was companies that was not affected by the weak economy, fertilizer companies comes to mind. If the economy is strong again, there is a lot of room for those rails to gain, as they have basically drifted along since 2006, when there is earnings that reflect the inflation between 2006-2009, and a strong economy at the same time, they will perform very well.
  12. It seems he suspect that we are a week after or so at the end of a 1930 like rally then, I think that is wrong. I think we are heading towards the political process of a second stimulus package, and perhaps more QE from the FED, I think the march low will hold. I have reduced my positions, and upped my cash stake to around 80 %. I think the short sellers might bring out the truth, and that could possibly be that those who think the US will hum along without a 2 stimuli package is living in fantasy land I dont know. On the other hand, a lot of the high beta stocks are now down a levels, that seems in line with previous corrections in this rally. However at those times, it was a belief that the economy was heading up ,now I think MR market is moving towards the double dip camp again.
  13. With the new leader in japan, they won't even have the dollar as an reserve asset there, if he keeps his word. There will be a currency crisis. I suspect the market is still trending higher, it seems the correction ended today. Atleast it seems possible..
  14. I consider even upping my stake in gold today. The 3m libor vs feds funds rate interest rate is very low, around 23 bps, or bubble conditions. I think gold is ready to blow up. Right month. good technicals, etc. I think it might be right to go for gold now. Maybe this will be like the earlier moves, just down again, and inside a range, but it could also be the break. like with the nasdaq in 1999. If that happens , they will be unable to stimulate the economy as much as they want to, and might move right into a double dip, with higher interest rates in a bad economy.
  15. This move in gold have lasted some time, the things that used to strenghten when the dollar weakened have failed to do so this weak, instead we have had gold, yesterday and today. I sold stocks and moved into gold today. I have felt gold is about to break eighter down or up for some time. I don't know what's happening, but I have noticed one thing that is interesting, the moves in gold lately, as I see it is a pure safe haven move now, with treasuries.
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