Sledgehead Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 (edited) They telegraphed the rate cut, yet stocks flew up on the day, and whilst the value of money is being destroyed, gold plummets. Now explain all that. Edited March 19, 2008 by Sledgehead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mSparks Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 (edited) come out a bit further.... not exactly 'meltdown' - more like correction, wake me when it hits 900, which should be sometime in 2012 Edited March 19, 2008 by mSparks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 Signalling the beginning of the next 'up' wave - or whatever its called. The next one will be wave 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Generation Game Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 They telegraphed the rate cut, yet stocks flew up on the day, and whilst the value of money is being destroyed, gold plummets.Now explain all that. I saw it being touted as the next investment on some news programme a couple of days back, citing that British-based Indians love their bling. Maybe some major goldbugs got their shoes shined this week? But it's probably setting the next "up" wave as others suggest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 come out a bit further.... not exactly 'meltdown' - more like correction, wake me when it hits 900, which should be sometime in 2012 Well, if you knew me as others here do, you'd know I'm really just taking the piss out of the doom mongers (largely gold bugs) who predicted all through 2004-2005-2006 the collapse of the stock market with their ridiculous "Black xxxday" prophecies. 2% falls were usually enough to set them off. I should also point out that crashes occur after huge rises, not on recovery. Thus your chart means a gold crash is more likely than a stock market crash was post 2003. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carseller Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 (edited) Signalling the beginning of the next 'up' wave - or whatever its called. The next one will be wave 4. I looks more like we might get a full head, then a shoulder formation. I think gold fell because the market had priced in a 1% cut, plus the latest data in the CPI in US and UK, showing lower inflation, than what the market believed in is not bullish. Especially if the trend towards lower inflation goes on, gold would roll over, and we would then see a completion of the head formation, then a shoulder. Edited March 19, 2008 by carseller Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 Signalling the beginning of the next 'up' wave - or whatever its called. The next one will be wave 4. OMG, wave counters. I think it was 7 years ago I trialled them out. I thought gold's movement was based on fundamentals rather than technicals? I've looked at charts for so long I just read them w/o indicators. They have a certain essence. When you slap on technical indicators you find they fit what you see as a "correct shape". I can place likely retracement points to within ~0.25% of fib levels just by looking at a chart. When you can read charts like that you can be right 70% of the time. When you come to trad ethose feelings the figure deteriorates due to broken stops etc, but all in all, with 10 to 15 years of constant study and dedication you can be right about 50% of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 I think gold fell because the market had priced in a 1% cut, The market hadn't even priced in a 3/4 point cut, otherwise it would not have gone up 400 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kagiso Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 I saw it being touted as the next investment on some news programme a couple of days back, citing that British-based Indians love their bling.Maybe some major goldbugs got their shoes shined this week? But it's probably setting the next "up" wave as others suggest. when the bbc starts ramping gold, you don't need shoe shine boys......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thefinalbear Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 haha, the gold bull hasn't even started yet........wake me up when it reaches $7000 an oz and then we'll talk..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 I saw it being touted as the next investment on some news programme a couple of days back. Which was probably enough to have all serious gold bugs selling! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 haha,the gold bull hasn't even started yet........wake me up when it reaches $7000 an oz and then we'll talk..... I never heard anyone quite so confident about stocks over the past 3 years. But they did go up. I can personally make the case for gold, but it always worries me when people throw out such inflated targets with utter confidence. It's the contrarian in me I guess. Makes me worried. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 OMG, wave counters. I think it was 7 years ago I trialled them out. I thought gold's movement was based on fundamentals rather than technicals?I've looked at charts for so long I just read them w/o indicators. They have a certain essence. When you slap on technical indicators you find they fit what you see as a "correct shape". I can place likely retracement points to within ~0.25% of fib levels just by looking at a chart. When you can read charts like that you can be right 70% of the time. When you come to trad ethose feelings the figure deteriorates due to broken stops etc, but all in all, with 10 to 15 years of constant study and dedication you can be right about 50% of the time. Haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 (edited) ... and with that we get a collapse in oil inventories. Glut followed by famine. Edited March 19, 2008 by Sledgehead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 They telegraphed the rate cut, yet stocks flew up on the day, and whilst the value of money is being destroyed, gold plummets.Now explain all that. Margin calls? Cheaper is good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drminky Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 Gold's given up about a weeks gains in GBP terms.. We're still in overbought territory on the RSI and MACD..hardly a meltdown!! that's not even a buying oppurtunity!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 Gold's given up about a weeks gains in GBP terms.. We're still in overbought territory on the RSI and MACD..hardly a meltdown!! that's not even a buying oppurtunity!! I likes the cut of your jib Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carseller Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 (edited) The market hadn't even priced in a 3/4 point cut, otherwise it would not have gone up 400 points. That's wrong:) It was good news from investment banks. And sort of a nervous relief after the trouble that have been lately. But he also have his opinion on the matter: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/18/market-thought/ You might say the gold market reacted as alternative 1, and the stock market as alternative 2, plus the nervous relief effect I explained. Edited March 19, 2008 by carseller Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 Margin calls? I'd have thought blue chips would have gone the same way in that case. And cheaper is only good if it's short term. Look at poor old Doctor Doom. Lost his reputation and then job for calling the top in dotcom, ie collapse came too late. Then after calling th etop in the housing market, he curled his toes up b4 seeing that pan out. In the long term we're alll ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob monkhouse Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 Just a shakeout...or something more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob monkhouse Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 I never heard anyone quite so confident about stocks over the past 3 years. But they did go up.I can personally make the case for gold, but it always worries me when people throw out such inflated targets with utter confidence. It's the contrarian in me I guess. Makes me worried. ditto Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 (edited) Gold's given up about a weeks gains in GBP terms.. We're still in overbought territory on the RSI and MACD..hardly a meltdown!! that's not even a buying oppurtunity!! Still overbought in RSI and MACD??? And whose parameters are you using? What timescale is the chart? You make it sound like an absolute reality. It's an indicator dude. If people play the chart shorter term they will trade bearish and that can make it bearish medium term. That will make medium term players bearish and that will make the chart eventually look bearish long term. Charts aren't sttaic. They evolve. Edited March 19, 2008 by Sledgehead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 I'd have thought blue chips would have gone the same way in that case.And cheaper is only good if it's short term. Look at poor old Doctor Doom. Lost his reputation and then job for calling the top in dotcom, ie collapse came too late. Then after calling th etop in the housing market, he curled his toes up b4 seeing that pan out. In the long term we're alll ... Ah well, win some lose some While I do hold some gold, it's not enough to lose sleep over... the gold bull run has been a lot of fun and if it all goes wrong, well, at least I've got some shiny yellow metal to look at! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 Just a shakeout...or something more? Probably. . People seem at a loss as to where to stuff their shrinking fortunes. Rightly or wrongly they scuttle into anything that's going up, even if it pays no income. Then again, what use is fixed interest with prices going up (I won't say inflation as that is a concept that has lost all meaning and credibility under our collective administrations)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledgehead Posted March 19, 2008 Author Share Posted March 19, 2008 at least I've got some shiny yellow metal to look at! Much the same position as me, except all I have is a rather nasty spread bet position that require funding at libor+X. Not much fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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