Panda Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Why? Coz the BBC in their infinite wisdom say so? In a word "YES" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soul Reaver Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Well I just consulted my I-Ching and it told me emphatically "There will be strong movements in a swift river of change. The way is closed" Whatever that means Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ologhai Jones Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Well I just consulted my I-Ching and it told me emphatically "There will be strong movements in a swift river of change. The way is closed" Whatever that means Sounds like a vote for IRs up by 0.5% to me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 On past performance I'd say the chances of 0.5% are less than zero. The BoE have proved time and time again they prefer a softly softly hope for the best approach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JumboMills Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 In a word "YES" Crikey. Fair enough. I prefer to make decisions based on an informed, considered, balanced view, not on the say so of a BBC journo. In fact for every 'house prices grinding to a halt' story, there's a 'house prices still going strong' story to contradict it. I'd say you need to learn to take things with a pinch of salt. I don't really like cynicism, but blind faith can get you in a whole lotta trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nationalist Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I've got £2 on a +.5% at 55/1. I'm expecting +.25% but the odds on that are crap so it's not worth a flutter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfinger Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 (edited) On past performance I'd say the chances of 0.5% are less than zero. The BoE have proved time and time again they prefer a softly softly hope for the best approach. Well, well, let's have a look into the past to see how soft they were. These are consecutive historic BoE base rates: Thu, 25 May 1989 13.75 Fri, 25 Nov 1988 12.88 Thu, 25 Aug 1988 11.88 Mon, 08 Aug 1988 10.88 ... Mon, 28 Jan 1985 13.88 Mon, 14 Jan 1985 11.88 Fri, 23 Nov 1984 9.50 ... Wed, 11 Jul 1984 12.00 Fri, 06 Jul 1984 10.00 ... Wed, 12 Jan 1983 11.00 Fri, 26 Nov 1982 10.00 Tue, 02 Nov 1982 9.13 ... Mon, 12 Oct 1981 15.00 Tue, 15 Sep 1981 14.00 Tue, 25 Aug 1981 12.69 ... Thu, 03 Jul 1980 16.00 Thu, 15 Nov 1979 17.00 Wed, 13 Jun 1979 14.00 ... Thu, 08 Feb 1979 14.00 Thu, 09 Nov 1978 12.50 Thu, 08 Jun 1978 10.00 Mon, 15 May 1978 9.00 ... Mon, 28 Nov 1977 7.00 Mon, 17 Oct 1977 5.00 Edited July 2, 2007 by Goldfinger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nationalist Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Goldfinger, You're posting very historical data there. The MPC is a new paradigm. Prior to the creation of the MPC chancellors were a law unto themselves, pace Norman Lamont putting IRs up 2% in the morning, and another +3% in the afternoon (black Wednesday.) The MPC has no track record of major IR shifts. The past is not a guide to the future in this case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfinger Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Goldfinger,You're posting very historical data there. The MPC is a new paradigm. Prior to the creation of the MPC chancellors were a law unto themselves, pace Norman Lamont putting IRs up 2% in the morning, and another +3% in the afternoon (black Wednesday.) The MPC has no track record of major IR shifts. The past is not a guide to the future in this case. Point accepted. The MPC might still have a look at the base rate history and what effect the different moves had when making decisions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downandout Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 It's too close to Brown's succession for anything controversial like a 0.5% increase. Why risk the BOE's independence by actually acting independently? My money (if I had any) would be on 0.25% with a small hedge on no change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littlepumpkin Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 It's too close to Brown's succession for anything controversial like a 0.5% increase.Why risk the BOE's independence by actually acting independently? My money (if I had any) would be on 0.25% with a small hedge on no change. its just that the governeor or deputy cant remember which, has been very "concerned" this last few weeks and i wouldnt rule out a .5 rise - even though its one in the eye for gordon brown, this could be the time for them to do it and mae a break with the past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Bear Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I think most people know it will be a .25% rise (the £ is over 2$ for some time and has just gone past 2.011) The voting will be more than a little interesting, as the MPC could be at a crucial point in their existance. Im expecting 7-2 with Lomax and Blanchflower calling for a hold. If Mervyn has got some sort of real control after his, and others, positioning this month it may be 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckmojo Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I'd really like to see them put that .5% in, but that's not going to happen. For the moment , I'd be happy with the 0.25% up every 2 months to kill the frog in the boiler before he knows it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benedict Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I had no idea that you could bet on stuff like that (outside of the financial markets anyway), I've never really gambled due to utter disinterest in sport but gambling on my obsessions could be far more interesting. Maybe I can hedge any property purchases through interest rate gambling . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panda Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 Crikey. Fair enough. I prefer to make decisions based on an informed, considered, balanced view, not on the say so of a BBC journo. In fact for every 'house prices grinding to a halt' story, there's a 'house prices still going strong' story to contradict it. I'd say you need to learn to take things with a pinch of salt. I don't really like cynicism, but blind faith can get you in a whole lotta trouble. In a word or two maybe “being sarcastic” towards the BBC and their reporting over the past couple of years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panda Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 (edited) Double post? Edited July 2, 2007 by Panda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downandout Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I had no idea that you could bet on stuff like that (outside of the financial markets anyway), I've never really gambled due to utter disinterest in sport but gambling on my obsessions could be far more interesting.Maybe I can hedge any property purchases through interest rate gambling . . . There was another thread that alluded to the possibility of betting on house prices falling. It would be interesting to see how many of us are prepared to put our money where our mouths (or posts) are. I for one would (but as I mentioned early I don't have any money ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Cletus VanDamme Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 0% chance of a 0.5% rise (why are we even discussing this?) I know we're on tenterhooks for Thursday, but c'mon, we all know its 0.25%, the BoE have been telling everyone for weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 0% chance of a 0.5% rise (why are we even discussing this?)I know we're on tenterhooks for Thursday, but c'mon, we all know its 0.25%, the BoE have been telling everyone for weeks. they been saying that they will hike for weeks - but by how much? who knows. maybe its time for some BTL sheeple to burn- I furkin can't wait Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The_Oldie Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I think it'll be a 0.25% rise, or even a hold. It should be 0.5%, but to be honest I'm past caring. The housing market is toast and it's only a matter of time before we see falls of 30-40%. Fiddling around with 0.25% rises (or holds) is only delaying the inevitable and with half my money now in Euros if the BoE keep rates artificially low against the world stage, my Euros will appreciate in value against Sterling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNSHURE Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 One thing's for sure: 0.5% would KILL the UK property market instantly. I agree. The BOE are raising interest rates in tiny amounts to try to curb inflation without causing a recession. A 0.5% rise would be similar to taking the chains off King Kong. It would send a signal to the market that would cause a BTL scramble for the exit. I cannot see the BOE doing anything more than raising by 0.25%. I would have thought Brown Labour will want to keep the economy afloat until they can call an early election (remember Callaghan in 78). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ologhai Jones Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 If we get a rate rise this week (let's assume the more likely 0.25%), do we think it's likely to spur buyers on to move (perhaps because they'll want to arrange their new fixed-rate mortgages ASAP), or will it cause buyers to dry up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I cannot see the BOE doing anything more than raising by 0.25%. I would have thought Brown Labour will want to keep the economy afloat until they can call an early election (remember Callaghan in 78). Brown will hang on to get ahead of Camo in the polls and cross his fingers (influence the MPC) that an economic nightmare doesn't arise in the meantime. The sooner the better for Brown because the dam is at bursting point. Election in 2008 me thinks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headmelter Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 If we get a rate rise this week (let's assume the more likely 0.25%), do we think it's likely to spur buyers on to move (perhaps because they'll want to arrange their new fixed-rate mortgages ASAP), or will it cause buyers to dry up? What buyers would that be then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdon Posted July 2, 2007 Share Posted July 2, 2007 I've a horrid feeling that it will be a hold - so as not to scare people too much - the "war on terror" has turned up the heat a little and maybe made people more introspective (ie dampening pointless bling spend). So I'm off to betfair to put £30 on a hold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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