Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[Diver Dan]

2 hours ago, stingray192 said:

I honestly wouldn’t pay £400k for it, one of the worst looking houses I’ve seen

 

Their best bet would probably be to divide it into 2-3 flats and try to flog them off individually. Either that or one of those dodgy raffles.

It's been on the market for years and nobody who can afford it wants to buy it.

[shortbread]

6 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

BUMP The owners of 10 Stoney-Brokehill Grange have reduced the price once again.

Now yours at the low low price of £875,000.

So from a purchase price of £1,415,000 in 2014 to a 'for sale' price of 875k in 2019! 

WOW, that must be a new national record, nearly a 40% fall. 540k wiped off in 5 years, i.e 108k every year. Any calls on what it would finally sell for?

In the mean time I wonder what's going on in the neighbours minds?!

[stingray192]

16 hours ago, shortbread said:

So from a purchase price of £1,415,000 in 2014 to a 'for sale' price of 875k in 2019! 

WOW, that must be a new national record, nearly a 40% fall. 540k wiped off in 5 years, i.e 108k every year. Any calls on what it would finally sell for?

In the mean time I wonder what's going on in the neighbours minds?!

It will be a lot more than 40% when it eventually sells, these are amongst the worst designed houses anywhere, the amount of steps you have to your front door alone, let alone going anywhere in the house, bringing Prams  in or simply the weekly shop, everything is a hassle, I honestly think anyone who bought these with a mortgage(likely everyone) would be better handing they keys to the mortgage company.

the neighbours must be thinking we are never getting rid of these

[stingray192]

17 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

Their best bet would probably be to divide it into 2-3 flats and try to flog them off individually. Either that or one of those dodgy raffles.

It's been on the market for years and nobody who can afford it wants to buy it.

Don’t think that’s would happen, not enough parking, not the structure and soundproofing Etc Etc in place they would cost hundreds of thousands to convert, , don’t know what the architect was thinking with these

[EME]

No surprises here

New build houses are always overpriced no matter where they are in the country.

Smart people, like me, buy them second hand.

Anyone who bought a brand new house in 2013/2014 in Aberdeen is looking at a 20%+ loss

[Oily]

3 hours ago, stingray192 said:

It will be a lot more than 40% when it eventually sells, these are amongst the worst designed houses anywhere, the amount of steps you have to your front door alone, let alone going anywhere in the house, bringing Prams  in or simply the weekly shop, everything is a hassle, I honestly think anyone who bought these with a mortgage(likely everyone) would be better handing they keys to the mortgage company.

the neighbours must be thinking we are never getting rid of these

I agree with the other posters that this is an unattractive house inside and out. The internal layout is confusing and awkward and the garden is a joke.  One reason they can't hand the keys back to the mortgage company is that the property was bought by a mortgage company as an 'investment" property! 

It's been a slow crash in Aberdeen but it's a crash all the same. Bob at ASPC has done a sterling job trying to talk up the market over the past few years with his relentless 'signs of recovery' articles.  In reality the year-on-year fall in house prices is accelerating as folks become increasingly aware that Aberdeen's near-total reliance on a single non-sustainable industry wasn't a good long term strategy.

[stingray192]

30 burnside drive, dyce, this one is newly listed at a realistic price on at £99,000 for a fairly new build 2 bed apartment 

[Diver Dan]

Citylets Q3 2019 Report

This came out a few weeks ago but I don't remember anybody posting it yet.

Rent prices continuing to go down, time on market going up. Any increases from Q2 basically wiped out. Everywhere else in Scotland doing a bit better.

[stingray192]

52 minutes ago, Diver Dan said:

Citylets Q3 2019 Report

This came out a few weeks ago but I don't remember anybody posting it yet.

Rent prices continuing to go down, time on market going up. Any increases from Q2 basically wiped out. Everywhere else in Scotland doing a bit better.

A good friend owns a lot of property in Aberdeen, 7-8 years ago he used to get £750 per month for a fairly basic 2 bed flat, now he gets £500-£550  for the same flats. ,they can sit empty for 5-6 months between tenants, he also owns some luxury apartments and was getting £1400-£1800 for these, they were all let to oil executives and he always had people waiting on them, he is now getting £800-£1000 with long empty periods. 

[shortbread]

5 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

Citylets Q3 2019 Report

This came out a few weeks ago but I don't remember anybody posting it yet.

Rent prices continuing to go down, time on market going up. Any increases from Q2 basically wiped out. Everywhere else in Scotland doing a bit better.

Thank you Diver Dan. 

Falling rents can be a good thing for Aberdeen, the city becoming cheaper/affordable will hopefully attract more people. New business ventures and start ups need fresh talent. Aberdeen needs to think about life beyond oil, like 10-15 years ago! Better late than never. 

It might sound challenging for landlords who purchased at peak prices and are struggling with mortgage repayments. Time to make tough decisions but they'll surely survive. 

Edited November 10, 2019 by shortbread

[Diver Dan]

There are reasons to be cheerful about living in Aberdeen. It's ranking in the top 10 out of 42 UK cities for quality of life according to the Demos-PwC Good Growth for Cities Index

https://www.pwc.co.uk/industries/government-public-sector/good-growth.html

There are a few things I don't understand about the study, for example transport in London scores very poorly when there are buses, trains, trams and tubes left right and centre, quite unlike Aberdeen.

[Diver Dan]

And the Q3 ASPC report came out too:

https://www.aspc.co.uk/information/house-prices/

Prices in the city and shire are declining which should hopefully bump up our price to earnings and owner occupation scores in the next. PWC report.

[EME]

But sales volumes increasing

[Diver Dan]

30 minutes ago, EME said:

But sales volumes increasing

Perhaps that's because buyers are bargaining hard and sellers are being forced to be realistic about pricing.

[shortbread]

HM Land Registry: House Price Index Scotland, Sep 2019

Aberdeen house price fall continues to gather momentum, now -7.6% !

The official goverment figures are out. Same as previous months, the Aberdeen house price fall has been steeper this month. The YoY fall was -4.4% in Sep'18 and in the latest HPI, its further lowered to -7.6% !

Aberdeen city average price

September'17: £168,928

September'18: £160,131

September'19: £148,021

 

Edinburgh's price rise continues to look scary.

Quote

Scotland house prices increased by 2.4% in the year to September 2019, up from 1.6% in the year to August 2019. Scotland house prices were growing faster than the UK annual rate of 1.3% in the year to September 2019.

House prices increased over the last year in 25 out of 32 local authority areas. The biggest average price increase was Falkirk, where prices increased by 7.5% in the year to September 2019 to £130,000. The biggest fall was recorded in City of Aberdeen, where average prices fell over the year by 7.6% to £148,000.

In September 2019, the most expensive area to purchase a property was City of Edinburgh, where the average cost was £273,000. In contrast, the cheapest area to purchase a property was East Ayrshire, where the average cost was £101,000.

 

On the bright side the September figures have shown that sales volumes have risen slightly/flat-lined! Which is a positive compared to previous months.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-scotland-september-2019/uk-house-price-index-scotland-september-2019

[stingray192]

Aberdeen will soon be the cheapest city in Scotland, both Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire falling with low sales volumes as well, I think it’s when you consider Glasgow used to be about half the price of Aberdeen and Edinburgh used to be around the same price as Aberdeen that you realise how bad the crash is. 

[shortbread]

Hometrack Oct'19 House Price Index

Familiar story, steeper fall..... now -5.9%

Quote

UK city house price inflation is higher as prices start to firm up in London and Southern England. Large regional cities continue to post above average price growth on the back of rising demand and attractive affordability, supported by low mortgage rates. The headline rate of UK city house price growth has increased to +2.9% - ranging from +4.7% in Leicester to -5.5% in Aberdeen.

Large regional cities continue to post above average price growth on the back of rising demand and attractive affordability, supported by low mortgage rates. The pace of annual price growth across regional cities is slowing compared to recent years. That said, cumulative house price growth since the start of 2017 has been greater than 15% in Edinburgh, Leicester, Manchester and Birmingham.

In contrast, house price growth across London, Oxford and Cambridge has been broadly flat with year on year price falls over 2018. Weak price growth has been accompanied by a 10% to 25% drop in sales volumes as demand for housing has reduced.

Election brings forward seasonal slowdown
The short-term outlook has been impacted by the start of the General Election campaign which will accelerate the seasonal end of year slowdown. Zoopla data shows that the last 2 months of the year up until Christmas account for around a tenth of buyer demand.

Quote

Annual house price growth across the UK’s major cities increased to 2.9% in October as southern markets showed signs of recovery. Property values in London rose by 1% in the past year, the strongest pace of growth for two years and reversing the 1.1% dip recorded during the previous 12 months.

But it was not all good news, with the rate at which house prices are rising slowing to below 5% in the most buoyant cities for the first time since November 2012.

Fastest and Slowest growing cities

Leicester saw the strongest house price gains in the year to the end of October, It was followed by Manchester at 4.6% and Liverpool at 4.1%, with Edinburgh and Belfast completing the top five, both at 4%.

Overall, Edinburgh, Leicester, Manchester and Birmingham have all posted growth of more than 15% in house prices since the start of 2017, but the pace of gains in these cities is expected to moderate going into 2020.

Aberdeen was the only city in which house prices fell year-on-year in October, with the cost of property dropping by 5.9% as the market continues to suffer the fallout from the drop in oil prices.

 

 

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/zoopla-cities-house-price-index/#X7YjuCbh5j6XuzUK.97

https://www.hometrack.com/uk/insight/uk-cities-house-price-index/october-2019-cities-index/

[shortbread]

Crux of the problem is the decreasing population, isn't it? This is due to migration. No demand and increasing supply is the issue. There are not enough people to buy the six to seven thousand existing properties for sale, on top of the thousands of new-builds in the pipeline. Need to attract more people into the city.

• Mid-Year Population Estimates Scotland, Mid-2016, Published April 2017: Aberdeen City (-0.4%) and Nah-Eileanan Siar (-0.2%) saw the largest population decreases from net migration.
• Mid-Year Population Estimates Scotland, Mid-2017, Published April 2018: Aberdeen City used to be one of the councils with the highest positive net migration figure, but is now an area of out-migration. Aberdeen City (-0.6%) and Shetland Islands (-0.6%) saw the largest population decreases from net migration. 
• Mid-Year Population Estimates Scotland, Mid-2018, Published April 2019:Population decrease due to net migration and other changes was largest for Aberdeen City (-0.6%).  

 

 

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-population-estimates

[babo456]

Behind a pay wall:  'Landlords vacate Aberdeen' 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/landlords-vacate-aberdeen-over-struggle-to-find-tenants-3zjp2cdzn#

[shortbread]

On 29/11/2019 at 11:14, babo456 said:

Behind a pay wall:  'Landlords vacate Aberdeen' 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/landlords-vacate-aberdeen-over-struggle-to-find-tenants-3zjp2cdzn#

Landlords vacate Aberdeen over struggle to find tenants

November 29 2019, The Times

Quote

A sharp decline in the number of landlords entering the buy-to-let sector in Aberdeen has been blamed on a glut of rental properties. New research has shown that the number of buy-to-let mortgages given in the city fell by 78 per cent from 2015 to 2018, from 490 to 106 per year.

The cost of renting in Aberdeen, which has been falling since 2016, was also said to be putting off investors. “The situation in Aberdeen is an anomaly,” George Hepburne Scott, director of development for Savills in Edinburgh, said.

“However, it would be true to say the local economy in Aberdeen is still deeply impacted by the downturn in the oil and gas sector, and this has had a knock-on effect on the residential market across all tenures.

“There is a glut of both houses to buy, particularly in the £250,000 and below bracket, and also to rent. This means that landlords are having to be more competitive and rents are reducing.”

In every Scottish city monthly rents have risen fast over the past decade except for Aberdeen, which recorded a fall last year from £745 to £716.

 

[shortbread]

Looks like someone is trying to get rid of their BTL portfolio, time to exit?!

68 Affleck Street, AB11 6JH, Sold: Aug 2004, £166,995

103 Chapel Street, AB10 1SS, Feb 2003, £157,950

79 Chapel Street,AB10 1SS, Dec 2002, £96,950

TOTAL: £421,895

For SALE: £725,000

Don't think it will be easy in this climate.

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/385560/103-&-79---Chapel-Street--68-Affleck-Street/Aberdeen/

 

[Shetlander]

Uncertain times indeed. I bought a one bedroom flat in Aberdeen for my student daughter for a discounted price a year or two back. I have been considering a larger flat but I am very wary even if I am able to negotiate a significant discount from the asking price. There is a huge amount of flats on the open market, far far more than there are buyers for that is ultimately what is driving the downward trend. What might look like reasonable value today could look very different in 5 to 10 years time unless there is a significant turnaround in the oil industry which looks highly unlikely. Bob Fraser should be a little careful with his relentless upbeat comments. 

[EME]

That looks like a very hopeful price

I’m looking to buy another Aberdeen flat in the near future, Do up then rent out for 10 years for my oldest to then move into if they want.

Should hopefully get a 20 year old penthouse flat for less than it cost new in 2000

[shortbread]

On 04/12/2019 at 15:41, EME said:

That looks like a very hopeful price

I’m looking to buy another Aberdeen flat in the near future, Do up then rent out for 10 years for my oldest to then move into if they want.

Should hopefully get a 20 year old penthouse flat for less than it cost new in 2000

So what do you reckon EME, buy now in Aberdeen when the prices are low or wait and see if they fall even lower?

[Oily]

37 minutes ago, shortbread said:

So what do you reckon EME, buy now in Aberdeen when the prices are low or wait and see if they fall even lower?

The question that needs to be asked is why would prices ever see a sustained recovery?  There are a record number of properties for sale (and rising year on year) and there will be between 2,500 and 3,500 new properties built every year for the forseeable future. The population is in decline and the economy is largely built on a single non-sustainable industry.  The BTL owners are off-loading and the older housing stock is in poor condition (just look for trees etc growing out chimneys in the city centre).  Or am I missing something?

Edited December 5, 2019 by Oily
typo