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Mr. Gruff

Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

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9 hours ago, EME said:

That’s nothing out of the ordinary really

Sold for just over £3k per sq metre 5 years ago, now for sale at just over £2k per sq metre

See it all over town

New builds in particular 

 

I agree. I think this is just a reflection of how the maket has moved in the last 4 years.

For years the premise of the posts on this form was that Aberdeen was an overpriced bubble set for a crash. And in 2014/15 the oil price fell and brought about the reductions we see now.

My finger in the air these days is that we have a (very approximate) 30% reduction from around the start of 2015.  This may not be strictly accurate but that is what I work with to keep it simple enough for me to monitor/challenge.

If this property goes for 175 then it is pretty much in line with that (33%).  My only small surprise was that July 2015 may have been a time to sit on your hands rather than pay top market price.

It is not necessarily as grisly as it might appear of course as most people wont be in the situation that they paid top of market prices (and so not everyone is affected this drastically).

As I said before I still think there is downward pressure - particularly in this type of property but I dont think this example is particularly unexpected. Not so much 'Wow' and more 'Yes - thats in line with my expectations'

 

 

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11 hours ago, NMSMUSINGS said:

As I said before I still think there is downward pressure - particularly in this type of property but I dont think this example is particularly unexpected. Not so much 'Wow' and more 'Yes - thats in line with my expectations'

I agree.

My theory is this, many of the Aberdeen residents are now upgrading homes or looking to move into better properties. People who had to settle for less due to the exorbitant house prices during the 2012-15 periods now have an opportunity to live in something more desirable, even if this means taking a hit on their current house valuations. So well priced and presented house have demand, especially ones with some land attached to the surroundings plus spacious inside.

But as NMSMUSINGS mentioned, there is a lot of downward pressure on dingy city centre dwellings. More of them are being piled up for sale on ASPC. 

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Two very contrasting reports:

Firstly

Hometrack-Zoopla: UK Cities July, 2019 House Price Index

Paints a similar picture as HM Land Registry data, the fall in Aberdeen is accelerating. -4.8% in Jul'19 vs -2.9% in Jul'18! 

1706132862_Jul19HmTrHPI.thumb.PNG.fa9949e7548550e596b287e350f0a1d9.PNG

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City house price inflation ranges from +6% to -5% UK city house price inflation was 2.3% in the last 12 months. Edinburgh (5.8%) and Liverpool (5.8%) continue to register well above average price growth. Aberdeen remains the weakest growth city with prices 4.8% lower over the last 12 months.

https://www.hometrack.com/media/570119/hometrack-uk-cities-house-price-index-report-july-2019-final.pdf

If one is a current home/property owner then the P&J/ASPC report paints a more rosier picture!

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Aberdeen house prices have increased for the first time since 2017

The cost of buying a home in Aberdeen has risen for the first time since 2017 as Thousands of jobs return to the North Sea oil and gas sector, according to a new report.

Average property prices in the Granite City increased by 1.7% to £202,011 in the second quarter of the year, when compared to the same period between April and June in 2018.

Purchasing a home in Aberdeenshire was up 0.3% in the period to £211,149, while in Highland the quarterly average had risen by 3.5% to £183,292, and in Moray there was a 2.7% increase to £172,363. The Western Isles experienced the second highest percentage rise in Scotland, soaring by 13.7% on last year to £118,008.

The quarterly monitor produced by the estate agents and legal firm Aberdein Considine also showed that the average price in Orkney had risen by 3.5% to £157,317, and in Argyll and Bute it was up by 2.1% to £164,428.

Robert Fraser, senior property partner at Aberdein Considine, said bullish buyers were “taking a long-term view on the market” amid the current economic uncertainty.

“Buying a house is not something people do with tomorrow or next year in mind,” he said. It’s a considered decision which most purchasers take with a medium to long-term view – and these figures suggest people are looking beyond the current political and economic headwinds with a degree of confidence.”

The price increases in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire emerged amid renewed optimism in the UK oil and gas sector, with the industry expecting to support 10,000 more jobs in 2019 compared to last year.

“As the optimism around the oil and gas sector, as well as news of longer term investment plans, has filtered through, demand for housing has pushed prices higher,” Mr Fraser said.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/1825857/aberdeen-house-prices-have-increased-for-the-first-time-since-2017/

 

Take your pick!

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Prices certainly seem to have stabilised in West Aberdeenshire going by the 4+ bedroom houses I have been tracking this year. 

Those that were sold in late spring sold for the "offers over" price going by the ROS website.  Will be interesting to see if that trend continues once the summer sales appear on ROS. 

For sure, good properties with a decent sized garden and little maintenance needs are selling within a couple of months.  New builds with limited garden space/parking are definitely taking longer to shift (if at all).

Meanwhile, how about a nine bedroom property out at Rhynie for £400k - link

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Read the article, project finished 2011 for £400k

Now under offer in 2019 at you have to assume at least £450k

Not a bad return in anyone’s book! 

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1 hour ago, EME said:

Read the article, project finished 2011 for £400k

Now under offer in 2019 at you have to assume at least £450k

Not a bad return in anyone’s book! 

It’s a shockingly bad return, the build cost was £400k it started in 2008 and they moved in 2011, they spent three years building it and it has sold around £450k,    Take into account solicitor fees, estate agent fees etc, they are barely  breaking even. There is no mention of the land cost, these people basically worked for free building the house, if you spend £400k building a house yourself you would expect to double your money within a year or two

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Aberdeen Airport ranked as the worst in Scotland in new passenger survey

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Aberdeen International Airport has been voted as the worst in Scotland for passengers in a new national survey.

Holidaymakers blasted the airport for a lack of seating, disappointing customer experience and poor retail offering in a national Which? poll, with one stating only “geographic convenience rather than choice” prompted them to use it on a regular basis. Flyers also rated baggage reclaim areas, food prices and conditions in the toilets among the poorest across the UK in the survey.

But airport bosses say they are “not going to lose any sleep” over the results, claiming the results of the poll are “months out of date”.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/aberdeen-airport-ranked-as-the-worst-in-scotland-in-new-passenger-survey-1-4999815

Tbh, I've never had issues with the airport. It's very basic and gets the job done, but many of the airport staff look grumpy and seem like they don't want to be there! It's a small efficient airport.

That said flying internationally anywhere towards the east, Cities have taken the airport game to a very different league. 

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HM Land Registry: House Price Index Scotland, July 2019

Aberdeen fall growing steeper YoY!

Just as previous months, the average Aberdeen house price fall has grown YoY. July'18 the fall was -4.4% and in July 2019, it's grown to -6.3%.

City of Aberdeen average prices

- July'17: £166,711

- July'18: £158,190

- July'19: £148,151 

Another interesting anecdote is how quickly Glasgow is catching up with Aberdeen prices. In Jul'17 when there was a £40k+ disparity between both cities, in the latest index it has narrowed down to just £13k in Jul'19.

That is a big change and I think this time next year both cities will be on par!

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Scotland house prices increased by 1.4% in the year to July 2019, down from 2.0% in the year to June 2019. Scotland house prices were growing faster than the UK annual rate of 0.7% in the year to July 2019.

House prices increased over the last year in 25 out of 32 local authority areas. The biggest average price increase was in East Dunbartonshire, where prices increased by 6.4% in the year to July 2019 to £223,000. The biggest fall was recorded in City of Aberdeen, where average prices fell over the year by 6.3% to £148,000.

In July 2019, the most expensive area to purchase a property was City of Edinburgh, where the average cost was £264,000. In contrast, the cheapest area to purchase a property was East Ayrshire, where the average cost was £96,000.

182258891_Aberdeenjul19fall.PNG.4b8c99cf14d549b577c5a2fad0ada1ca.PNG

1931594850_AberdeenJul19fall2.thumb.PNG.f8153b4959837f4bfa38bb49bc629159.PNG

http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi/browse?from=2015-07-01&location=http%3A%2F%2Flandregistry.data.gov.uk%2Fid%2Fregion%2Fcity-of-aberdeen&to=2019-07-01

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Aberdeenshire has clearly plateaued, will increase next year is my prediction.

Edinburgh average property prices are eye opening, wasn’t long ago they were on par with Aberdeen prices

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5 hours ago, EME said:

Aberdeenshire has clearly plateaued, will increase next year is my prediction.

Edinburgh average property prices are eye opening, wasn’t long ago they were on par with Aberdeen prices

There is now roughly 50% foreign habitation in Edinburgh.

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6 hours ago, stingray192 said:

If Aberdeen and surrounding areas hadn't of crashed, the prices would on par with Edinburgh, it shows how much things have actually crashed in the area

It's good local house prices did not go in the Edinburgh direction. Among the many factors Aberdeen's longevity will also heavily rely on enticing fresh talent into the city and the crash in rents/house prices will make it more attractive. Affordability is a key criteria and the city's continuing price correction will only do it good.

Edinburgh city house prices look worrying now, by next year Edinburgh prices will be close to TWICE of what it is in Aberdeen or Glasgow! That is a scary proposition for people looking to step on the property ladder.

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Hometrack Aug'19 House Price Index

2124965138_Aberdeenfall1.PNG.ae77850cf54e7e89531de249a3d6900c.PNG

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UK city house price inflation is +1.9%, ranging from +4.8% in Leicester to -4.0% in Aberdeen. Demand from mortgaged home-owners is holding up at a national level but has reduced in high value cities since 2016. The number of cash buyers has declined materially since 2016, particularly in cities across southern England as investor demand falls which has compounded the slowdown.

The annual rate of house price inflation has moderated to +1.9%. Twelve cities have a lower rate of price inflation than a year ago, markedly so in Edinburgh, Bournemouth, Portsmouth and Oxford. Leicester is the fastest growing city with prices rising at +4.8%. This is the first time since 2012 that the fastest growth city has a rate of price inflation below 5%.

House price growth is currently lowest in Aberdeen (-4.0%), followed by Oxford (-0.4%) and Portsmouth (0%). Other cities across southern England are registering flat to falling house prices.

 

 

1254736160_Aberdeenfall2.PNG.ad888d887dbff3973778543032a9b7db.PNG

Interesting statistic this!

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Three cities with prices still below 2007 levels

Newcastle is one of three cities where average prices are still below peak levels. Aberdeen and Belfast are the others. Aberdeen prices have fallen since 2015 in the wake of the oil price collapse and Belfast prices were excessively over-valued in 2007 and are now more sustainably priced. Putting this into wider context, figure 3 shows where house prices are today relative to 2007, highlighting the variation in house price appreciation and the growth in wages over the same period.

1518900411_houseprice3.PNG.f315cace7297bab54351102627587733.PNG

https://www.hometrack.com/uk/insight/uk-cities-house-price-index/august-2019-cities-index/

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I’m pleased that my new house buy isn’t on that list and it trumps all in terms of % reduction

Cant be totally sure because of the tiny writing, my eyesight isn’t what it used to be lol

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Zoopla Rental Market Report Q3 2019: Aberdeen rents fall 4.1%

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  • The annual rate of UK rental growth for new lets is +2.0% - the highest rate for 3 years (Sep-2016). Growth has increased from a low of 0.5% in June 2017 as a result of 1) a tightening in rental supply as a result of tax changes and fewer investment buyers, 2) rising levels of employment and 3) affordability constraints limiting access to home ownership in southern England which supports underlying rental demand.
  • Rental growth at a country level is +1.9% in Wales, +1.8% in Northern Ireland, +2.0% in England and +2.9% in Scotland.
  • Rental growth in London has been the second weakest, after the North East, over the last 5 years and the pace of growth has increased after a prolonged period of weakness. 

1857282030_higrowth20.PNG.f19422bd8282e07fb1af2a70b3f66cf6.PNG

 

Aberdeen is the only major city with a negative rate or to show a fall in rents. As of last year Glasgow has overtaken Aberdeen as the more expensive city to rent.

357762837_bottomgrowth20.PNG.e5eb32a4e57325c42dcfbdbdb0a2bf7b.PNG

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Published each quarter is the trends on rental market for 40 cities 

  • The latest index data finds that rental growth ranges from +5.4% in Nottingham to -4.1% in Aberdeen, where the collapse in the oil price since 2015 has resulted in a decline in demand and lower rents.
  • Twenty-two cities are registering rental growth that is lower than the 5-year average – primarily in cities with the weakest growth rates – a combination of supply and demand side factors explain these variations in
    rental growth. 

On the plus side, Aberdeen has gained a place among the 20 most affordable cities in the UK. Aberdeen rents are among the lowest in the UK making it attractive for tenants. Compared to Edinburgh where a single earner can pay approximately 37% of his earnings towards rent, in Aberdeen it is down to 23%.

875183407_afford20.thumb.PNG.fc9165c323b9caaf9b5679f784e6f5b0.PNG

1637378789_affordable20.PNG.2c3d9084fa052cee11f38f80876b5706.PNG

https://advantage.zpg.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Rental-Market-Report-—-Q3-2019.pdf

 

 

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2129218936_Aug19salesfall.PNG.bf825c9d0280ab032d4127bc96d87e05.PNGHM Land Registry: House Price Index Scotland, Aug 2019

Aberdeen house price fall continues to gather momentum, now -8.3% !

Same as previous months, the Aberdeen house price fall has been steeper this month. The YoY fall was -4% in Aug'18 and in the latest HPI, its a whopping -8.3% !

I use Glasgow as a benchmark to see the divergence in growth/fall. A stunning statistic is that in Aug'17 the average price difference between Glasgow and Aberdeen was £42,600. Now as per the Aug'19 numbers Aberdeen prices are only about £8k up on Glasgow! What would make this even more glaring is the comparative rental return. Edinburgh prices are rampaging ahead and is now closer to TWICE the Aberdeen average, so no point in comparing.

742224220_Aug19fall.PNG.ac34c74aebbdc3972c63d3018a4e3ef3.PNG

 

Sales volumes have fallen as well

Aberdeen city sales

August'17: 491

August'18: 451

August'19: 365

2129218936_Aug19salesfall.PNG.bf825c9d0280ab032d4127bc96d87e05.PNG

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Economic statement
Scotland house prices increased by 1.6% in the year to August 2019, up slightly from 1.5% in the year to July 2019. Scotland house prices were growing faster than the UK annual rate of 1.3% in the year to August 2019. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis average house prices in Scotland increased by 0.3% between July 2019 and August 2019, compared with a rise of 0.2% during the same period a year earlier (July 2018 and August 2018).

House prices increased over the last year in 26 out of 32 local authority areas. The biggest average price increase was in East Dunbartonshire, where prices increased by 4.7% in the year to August 2019 to £224,000. The biggest fall was recorded in City of Aberdeen, where average prices fell over the year by 8.3% to £146,000.

In August 2019, the most expensive area to purchase a property was City of Edinburgh, where the average cost was £266,000. In contrast, the cheapest area to purchase a property was East Ayrshire, where the average cost was £101,000.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-scotland-august-2019/uk-house-price-index-scotland-august-2019

 

Aug 19 sales fall.PNG

Edited by shortbread

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Hometrack Sep'19 House Price Index

Aberdeen slides to -5.5% from -4% in Sep 2018.

1941559951_Sep19fall.PNG.5bd63b3f8f816e2d0c6545f98c5dbf06.PNG

2023005136_Sep19fall2.thumb.PNG.45de1c00d6e5b0d30f950c9c6c6336c0.PNG

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UK city house price inflation is +2.4%, half the average growth rate over the last 5 years (4.8%). Slower house price growth and weaker demand has resulted in the time to sell hitting a 3 year high of 12 weeks while the discount to asking price has widened to 3.8% across UK cities.

House price growth ranges from +4.5% in Leicester and +4.3% in Manchester to -5.5% in Aberdeen. Prices are flat in London and falling -0.5% in Oxford.

The strongest market conditions remain in Scotland where a different system for marketing homes - with more information provided up front to would be buyers - makes for the fastest time to sell averaging 5-6 weeks in Glasgow and Edinburgh. With homes typically marketed as ‘offers over’ Glasgow and Edinburgh have ‘negative’ discounts to asking price as homes are selling for 6-7% above the asking price.

In contrast, market conditions remain weak across London, Oxford and Aberdeen. Here the average time to sell is over 14 weeks and the discount from the asking price to achieve a sale is over 5% - double the level in cities with the strongest market conditions.

Aberdeen continues to feel the effects of the oil price collapse while Oxford is an extension of the London market and a city with a high ratio of house prices to average earnings.

This months report has a lot of focus on time to sell.

Quote

Time to sell hits three year high across UK cities

House price growth has moderated over the last 3 years as sales volumes decline as a result of high price growth and stretched affordability. The average time to sell a property across UK cities has reached a 3 year high of 12 weeks, up from 8 weeks in 2016. Discounts to asking price have grown from 2.2% in 2016 to 3.8% today but there is a wide variation around these averages at a city level.

Market conditions remain weak in cities across southern England where the time to sell is materially higher than three years ago. Portsmouth, Southampton, Bournemouth and Bristol have all seen the time to sell increase from 6-7 weeks to 10-13 weeks as increased affordability reduces the pool of housing demand which pushes out sales periods.

1592317704_Sep19fall3.PNG.df6e34a5aeee8a1731eb6551bd096444.PNG

1694949108_Sep19fall4.PNG.d36cc0e9ca7cb91273846d82c179e289.PNG

 

House price change%: Aberdeen vs Glasgow vs Edinburgh vs UK average

706688046_Sep19fall5.thumb.PNG.72808322bfd3234e5148db435bd47a32.PNG

https://www.hometrack.com/uk/insight/uk-cities-house-price-index/september-2019-cities-index/

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3 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

BUMP The owners of 10 Stoney-Brokehill Grange have reduced the price once again.

Now yours at the low low price of £875,000.

I honestly wouldn’t pay £400k for it, one of the worst looking houses I’ve seen

 

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  • 295 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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