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Mr. Gruff

Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

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9 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

 

 

Well, there has been a small uptick in house prices for Q2:

Screenshot_20190725-181125__01.thumb.jpg.11013643688624b5e4da775b0b2e8b34.jpg

ASPC Q2 2019 Report

ASPC at 6954 for sale and 766 for rent.

Citylets at 1322 of which 1133 are flats

Is this an all time high for ASPC listing volumes?

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4 minutes ago, Sausage said:

Is this an all time high for ASPC listing volumes?

I think so, it usually starts to drop a bit (a few hundred a month) from now until the spring.

Edited by Diver Dan

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3 hours ago, Sausage said:

Is this an all time high for ASPC listing volumes?

Yes.

Back through the history of the thread it's been less than 1000.

Someone did ask aspc for their history of houses listed but they said they didn't store that information. If you skim the thread you'll find the number drift up and up and up each time it's mentioned...but there isn't a complete picture -  the thread used to be on the local house prices board before it was moved to the main board. It went dormant a few times during the years when it was out if sight out of mind.

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Wow

Up to 6990 today, bound to pass 7000 next week now

I said it wouldn’t happen until next Spring just a few posts back too!

Looks like I’m going to eat my own words lol

 

 

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I don’t think it’s going to go much over 7000 though, I’ve noticed the past few weeks that some of the latest listings are on at a much more realistic price so these may possible sell a little quicker, though equally some people are still looking outragous money for there houses. I will still say that the tiny one bed old tenement flats need to come down by at least 50% to make them a realistic buy, ideally what needs to happen, but won’t with current pricing is that developers buy the entire building and convert 6 little spaces into 3 decent sized flats 

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ASPC @ 7000!

558947949_ASPC29_07.thumb.PNG.ae62af8a93c96ddbcd78a3641ba6831e.PNG

7k it is, with 3 days left in July! 6500 in the start of the month so approx. 500 properties added in less than a month!

Great time to buy in Aberdeen OR wait for bigger reductions ahead?! It'll be engaging to follow how the local house prices continue to change in the coming years.

On 27/07/2019 at 11:26, EME said:

Wow

Up to 6990 today, bound to pass 7000 next week now

I think there will be a big fall in advertised properties once ASPC do their annual tidy up and non-movers be removed from the listing due to lack of interest. Nonetheless, realistically I think 6000+ will be the new baseline and then perhaps grow into a 7k+ norm by spring 2020!

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we are at 7045 whats everyones predictions of what will happen next, I think it will get to just over 7500 houses listed and then will start to fall back in the autumn, I imagine 7000 will be the new baseline

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15 hours ago, EME said:

Previously discussed....

 

On 25/07/2019 at 18:17, Diver Dan said:

 

 

Well, there has been a small uptick in house prices for Q2:

Screenshot_20190725-181125__01.thumb.jpg.11013643688624b5e4da775b0b2e8b34.jpg

ASPC Q2 2019 Report

 

On 25/07/2019 at 19:03, shortbread said:

The ASPC house price index were the only ones to show an uptick in previous cycles as well. Strangely their methodology clearly states that they do handpick data:

'The price changes shown in Table 1 are calculated after having controlled for thequality of houses that are sold'

..... and Aberdeen University washing hands with the final para!

'The University of Aberdeen makes no representation or warranty of any kind in relation to the information and/or data provided in this report, and all such representations or warranties, whether express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of accuracy, completeness, fitness for any particular purpose and non-infringement, are hereby, to the maximum extent permitted by law, excluded and extinguished.'

 

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Aspc famously put reports out to talk up the market no matter what, the reality as we all know is totally different, anyone who is currently ledge they are buying a depreciating asset, bit like buying a car, much wiser to rent then buy at the bottom of the market

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17 hours ago, Ignorantbliss said:

Quite a clear out on ASPC the last few days.  Down from 7100 at the start of the week to 6263 properties now. 

It's a good exercise, pointless listing houses at ridiculous prices and being unsold for years! I think there are plenty more old unsold listings that need to be removed.

Hopefully reality hits the sellers and they relist them at prices more akin to current market conditions.

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Think the reduction in properties is a correction of a web error.  In my opinion the last 2 months figure has been incorrect.  Previously when you first arrived it would show say 7,000 but if you clicked on under offer and then unclicked it the figure was nearer 6,200.  There were also a couple of other things that made me think this.  I was a little surprised nobody hear questioned or realised the sudden, dramatic and unaccounted for rise.

Also I don't agree with teh concept of a 'clear out' as a few posted have mentioned previously. Surely ASPC is contractually obliged to advertise those properties being marketed by their client.  In which case I see movements reflecting new listings, possible delistings and completed sales nothing more.  Happy to be put straight if i am barking up teh wrong tree

For what its worth I think significant parts of the market are still somewhat overvaled and would expected continued downward pressure/movement over the next couple of years, although I do feel that the main re'adjustment has now taken place.  And that it actually happened in a much more orderly and painless manner than I would have expected

Just my tuppence worth (not looking for a fight ^.^)

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3 hours ago, shortbread said:

It's a good exercise, pointless listing houses at ridiculous prices and being unsold for years! I think there are plenty more old unsold listings that need to be removed.

Hopefully reality hits the sellers and they relist them at prices more akin to current market conditions.

I just checked and the two oldest habitable houses (not plots or derelict etc.) in Aberdeen have survey dates in 2014.  Obviously not the most motivated sellers in town.

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HM Land Registry: House Price Index Scotland, June 2019

Aberdeen fall growing steeper YoY!

Just as previous months, the average Aberdeen house price fall has grown YoY. June'18 the fall was -2.8% and in June 2019, it's grown to -3.6%.

Average prices

June 2017: £164,027

June 2018: £158,562

June 2019: £152,877

A big change I have noticed is that more locations are seeing house prices fall, while in previous years Aberdeen was the solitary negative blimp during the UK house price boom.

Scotland has seen areas like Argyll Bute, Fife, Renfrewshire, Shetland, South Ayrshire show decreases. Is a UK'wide slowdown imminent? Will this affect Aberdeen where house prices are usually dictated by the state of the O&G industry?

32508794_Jun19fall.thumb.PNG.6d7d6b1d96d95e14d65344365e6f2546.PNG

Unsurprisingly sales have fallen as well. The decline has been consistent YoY albeit new home sales seem to be more resilient!

Aberdeen City sales volumes

April'17 New Build: 54
April'17 Existing H: 314

April'18 New Build: 61
April'18 Existing H: 263

April'19 New Build: 53
April'19 Existing H: 238

810060718_Jun19salesfall.thumb.PNG.46b38f07c4120b3f256b75474cb73937.PNG

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-scotland-june-2019/uk-house-price-index-scotland-june-2019

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Citylets 2019 Q2 report is now out:

https://www.citylets.co.uk/research/reports/property-rental-report-scotland-2019-q2/

Aberdeen's average rent is down -0.8% year on year which is a slower rate of decline that Q1. These are mostly buoyed up, as I believe EME has said, by family homes with 3+ bedrooms being more popular than smaller 1/2 bed flats.

Time on market is also falling slightly to an average of 45 days.

Screenshot_20190816-170928__01.thumb.jpg.85c594369993eeee08a0dbb2260dfc37.jpg

I still wouldn't be as bullish as Eduardo Prato of Martin and Co. though:

“The letting market in Aberdeen is showing a brighter face. Yes! The letting market is bouncing back, but with characteristics that we had not seen for a while. Quality properties, well presented and tastefully furnished are achieving good rents and shorter than average time to let (TTL). Any property below average will stay a long time on the market and achieve a poor rent level. It is still a tenant’s market, thus landlords and letting agents that are customer focused, willing and prepared to provide a high standard service to applicants and tenants, will prevail and be at the top of the recovery wave.

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13 minutes ago, Diver Dan said:

Citylets 2019 Q2 report is now out:

https://www.citylets.co.uk/research/reports/property-rental-report-scotland-2019-q2/

Aberdeen's average rent is down -0.8% year on year which is a slower rate of decline that Q1. These are mostly buoyed up, as I believe EME has said, by family homes with 3+ bedrooms being more popular than smaller 1/2 bed flats.

True, 1 & 2 beds are still showing falling rents. The fall is between -3 & -4%, vis a vis 3/4 beds which only shows a 1% fall.

118231977_rentq219.thumb.PNG.5cf62240b30965740a92f6afebcee861.PNG

 

Aberdeen is now well below the Scottish average. This is a good sign for tenants.

1638908574_scotrentq219.thumb.PNG.387d9d961e2db6a4e372331f379e929a.PNG

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Is TTL measured only for properties that are actually let? I.e. the grotty places that never get let, and are removed from listings to be sold/mothballed don't show up in TTL?

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7 hours ago, Sausage said:

Is TTL measured only for properties that are actually let? I.e. the grotty places that never get let, and are removed from listings to be sold/mothballed don't show up in TTL?

That's the problem, a fair few flats/rooms are advertised on Gumtree etc. or with homemade signs put in windows (all completely above board with all the relevant taxes, and registrations fully paid up, I assume) andwon't ever show up on the Citylets website.

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I think a lot of Aberdeen tenants are upgrading to better properties following the rental crash.

Historically they were paying ridiculous rents for dingy mediocre quality 1 & 2 beds in poorly maintained old granite buildings, it must be refreshing the past few years with the abundance of choice, falling rents etc!

Driving round the city plenty of to-let/for-sale signs dotted all over these old rental properties. 

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That’s nothing out of the ordinary really

Sold for just over £3k per sq metre 5 years ago, now for sale at just over £2k per sq metre

See it all over town

New builds in particular 

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  • 294 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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