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Mr. Gruff

Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

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On 13/07/2019 at 16:11, babo456 said:

Well folks I thought you guys might find it amusing that I 'matched' with an estate agent employee on Tinder. For those of you who are older - this is a dating app for those of us in society who are too ugly to approach in person.

Anyway. All was going well. Until I slagged off Aberdein Co. and their BS propaganda reports of the last 3 years, with only the most recent one really beginning to acknowledge the house market is dropping and sellers have to be 'realistic' with prices - I know, no wonder I can't get a girlfriend with chat up lines like this....

Turned out she actually works for Aberdein Co.... and was most unamused at my assessment of their quarterly reports and crap they say in the EE and P and J....

Oh well, plenty more fish in the sea.

you could try that site

 

From my time there, dating in aberdeen was pretty tragic!!

 

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HM Land Registry: House Price Index Scotland, May 2019

Aberdeen house prices fall faster!

The same phenomenon as reported in previous months, the Aberdeen house price fall has picked up pace. The YoY fall was -3% in May'18 and in the latest HPI, its -4.4%.

Another noteworthy point is that Glasgow prices are climbing closer to Aberdeen and might be on par by the year end. From a £50k difference, it has come down to £20k!

1227884013_May19fall.PNG.272afc8bfad001b618fd127a76058461.PNG

Quote

Scotland house prices increased by 2.8% in the year to May 2019, up from 1.7% in the year to April 2019. Scotland house prices were growing faster than the UK annual rate of 1.2% in the year to May 2019. 

In Scotland, average prices increased by 2.8% in the year to May 2019 (up from 1.7% in the year to April 2019). House prices increased over the last year in 23 out of 32 local authority areas. The biggest average price increase was in North Ayrshire, where prices increased by 8.2% to £111,000 in the year to May 2019. The biggest fall was recorded in City of Aberdeen, where average prices fell by 4.4% to £153,000 over the year.

 

Sales volumes have fallen as well

Aberdeen city sales

March'17: 392

March'18: 357

March'19: 331

215777419_May19salesfall.PNG.4c88df829c383361ae5df7e851c44ed4.PNG

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-scotland-may-2019/uk-house-price-index-scotland-may-2019

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24 minutes ago, shortbread said:

Sales volumes have fallen as well

Aberdeen city sales

March'17: 392

March'18: 357

March'19: 331

 

And another 150 or so properties on the ASPC in the last week  - 6835 up from 6701 on the 10th of July as per Stingray192s post.

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May'19 House price index on the media

Quote

The Herald: 

HOUSE prices in Scotland are growing at almost three times the annual rate of England, new figures indicate. Statistics show the average price of a property in Scotland in May 2019 was £152,801 – an increase of 2.8 per cent on the same time last year.

However, Aberdeen saw property prices plummet by 4.4%, according to the Office for National Statistics' UK House Price Index, which provides an official snapshot of the market.

David Alexander, managing director of the letting and estate agents DJ Alexander, said Scotland was experiencing a “very buoyant market at the moment”.
He added: “The Brexit thing has not affected people up here and they are quite happy to carry on regardless. It just seems like we have a robust market.” However, he said the impact of devolved property tax had slowed some sections of the market.

In Scotland, all property types showed a rise in average prices in May 2019 when compared with the same month last year.

House prices rose in 23 out of 32 council areas, with the biggest boost seen in North Ayrshire, where prices jumped by 8.2% to £111,000 in the year to May 2019.

Aberdeen saw the biggest fall, with average prices plummeting by 4.4% to £153,000 over the year.

The most expensive place to live in Scotland is Edinburgh, where the average cost of a house is £268,000.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17777185.house-prices-scotland-grow-almost-three-times-rate-england/

 

Quote

The National:

SCOTLAND’s property market is enjoying a “moment in the sun”, with house prices growing faster than the UK average, according to new figures. Statistics from the UK House Price Index (HPI) show the average price of a property in Scotland in May was £152,801. This marks a 2.8% increase on the same month in 2018 and a 1.2% rise in prices from April 2019. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the increase was the third highest in Britain after the north-west of England (3.4% rise) and Wales (3% up).

Edwina de Klee, partner at Edinburgh-based Garrington Property Finders, said: “The gap between between the Scottish and English property markets is becoming a gulf. 

“At well over double the annual pace of price growth in England, and the UK as a whole, Scotland’s property market is enjoying a moment in the sun. “Buyers and sellers are responding in kind, with sales volumes in March rising to 5% above the level seen in March 2018. “But that flurry of activity, and the steady upward trajectory in prices across the nation as a whole, is masking the intense polarisation of Scotland’s local markets.

“Aberdeen retains its unwanted wooden spoon as the city where prices are falling fastest. At least the 4.4% decline in the year to May is an improvement on the painful 6.2% fall Aberdeen saw in the 12 months to April. Meanwhile at the other end of the scale, prices in North Ayrshire and Stirling are rising at a dizzying pace.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/17777307.summer-surge-scottish-house-prices-sun-shines-market/

 

Quote

Scottishhousingnews.com :

The average price of a property in Scotland in May 2019 increased by 2.8% on the previous year to reach £152,801, the UK House Price Index (HPI) has shown.

The volume of residential sales in Scotland in March 2019 was 8,255 – an increase of 5.0% on the original provisional estimate for March 2018. This compares with an increase of 0.7% in England and a decrease of 1.2% in Wales and 6.0% in Northern Ireland (Quarter 1 – 2019).

The largest decreases were recorded in Aberdeen City and South Ayrshire, where average prices fell by 4.4% to £152,686 and 4.1% to £129,413 respectively.

https://scottishhousingnews.com/article/house-prices-in-scotland-grow-faster-than-uk-average

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On 16/11/2018 at 22:54, CGS said:

An old HPC ASPC favourite is now at £975k F.P -  not convinced it would even sell at £675k !?

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/361153/10-Oakhill-Grange/Aberdeen/

 

Now reduced to £930,000, they're practically giving it away at this price!

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/361153/10-Oakhill-Grange/Aberdeen/

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6 hours ago, EME said:

It’s absolutely massive at 411 sqm 

Maybe getting close to the right asking price now considering the floor space?

LBTT at that price is a killer though!

 

I think it's a case that anyone who needs that much space can't afford it and anybody who can afford it, doesn't need it.

Basically, the probably quite small number of people looking to buy in Aberdeen with the wherewithal to spend that much on a house are staying well away from this particular falling knife.

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On 10/07/2019 at 15:41, shortbread said:

More 'Help to Buy' negative equity traps in the pipleline! Bring em on I say, more choice to the buyers. 

https://www.scottishconstructionnow.com/article/affordable-homes-planned-on-outskirts-of-aberdeen

More the merrier!

Plenty more new builds in the pipeline! On top of the 30 new ones proposed at Kingswells, a recent report shows:

  • Stewart Milne Homes developing up to 200 properties to the east of Falkland Avenue in Cove.
  • Claymore Homes wants to build up to 150 properties at Bridge of Don, potentially in addition to facilities like a medical centre, shop, coffee shop and playpark at Claymore Drive.

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/housing-firm-unveils-plans-to-build-200-homes-in-aberdeen-community1/#r3z-addoor

Just like how ASPC gives an idea of homes up for sale in Aberdeen, wonder if there is a listing showing new builds for sale?

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52 minutes ago, shortbread said:

More the merrier!

Plenty more new builds in the pipeline! On top of the 30 new ones proposed at Kingswells, a recent report shows:

  • Stewart Milne Homes developing up to 200 properties to the east of Falkland Avenue in Cove.
  • Claymore Homes wants to build up to 150 properties at Bridge of Don, potentially in addition to facilities like a medical centre, shop, coffee shop and playpark at Claymore Drive.

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/housing-firm-unveils-plans-to-build-200-homes-in-aberdeen-community1/#r3z-addoor

Just like how ASPC gives an idea of homes up for sale in Aberdeen, wonder if there is a listing showing new builds for sale?

it would be great if there was, I went through a lot of the main builders a few months back, at the point they had about 800 houses available in current releases, but when you actually counted up the number of sites available of the developments there was over 9500 available, this was only what was available with the main builders within about 15 miles of Aberdeen. if you counted up evey site in Aberdeenshire it would be frightening especially given the incredibly low volume of monthly sales

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3 hours ago, micawber said:

What an odd sized garden for a house that size.

They are very big houses squeezed onto extremely small narrow sites, they aren’t practical for families as the parents would have to carry prams Etc up a serious amount of steps, again it’s a serious amount of stairs for carrying shopping etc, great space though for a family' just totally impractical

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Silverburn house being demolished!

The iconic office block that housed multiple O&G players over the years is being torn down. Many associated with the local O&G economy would have set foot in this 35+ year old building.

033NO2407PJA_Story__2-1-a-Read-Only-860x

Knight Frank were looking to sell this for near to the £6 MILLION mark a year ago. 141,353 sq ft and millions spent on refurbishment not too long ago. Previous owners Cromwell acquired the offices from Highcross in 2013, in a deal valued at £17.5 MILLION.

The property comprised of a detached office building of four inter-connected five-storey wings, central internal courtyard, a sports hall, which includes squash courts, two gyms, and three outdoor tennis courts. 

697922416_Silverburnsale.PNG.c3c9b7e5aa3649b12e5a79d23a9e5ffa.PNG

 

It was finally snapped up by Manchester based property in an auction for ONE MILLION a few month back, which looks like a steal!

 

Quote

Historic North Sea industry building topples after price plunge

One of the north-east’s landmark buildings is being torn down after being sold at a bargain basement price. Silverburn House in Bridge of Don has been an onshore fixture in the North Sea oil and gas industry for decades.

Greater Manchester-based property investors Isaac and Lea Bamberger – trading as Parklands View – snapped up the building, which was previously owned by Australia’s Cromwell Property Group, for £1m.

In 2013, before the oil and gas downturn, the Claymore Drive offices were sold to Cromwell by property investment firm Highcross in a deal valued at £17.56m.

They became vacant last year, when Baker Hughes, a GE company relocated staff to offices in Dyce.

Eric Shearer, head of the Aberdeen commercial office of property giant Knight Frank, said its demolition was a side-effect of a “lunatic” business rates system.

Property owners would rather demolish empty buildings in Aberdeen than pay hefty rates bills, he said, adding: “There is a simple solution to the problem but no one seems to care.

“We rightly criticise obvious waste of resources yet we are happy to see this type of waste.”

The loss of Silverburn House means £840,000 of business rates are “lost forever” from a building that need not have stayed empty, he said, adding: “If you don’t take away the empty rates burden, more people are going to do this. I find it incomprehensible.”

Mr Shearer said rates “holidays” would give landlords breathing space to find new tenants, stop the demolition trend and protect future income for the council. Millions of pounds were spent refurbishing Silverburn House, which was once home to Occidental and TotalFinaElf, before the oil slump.

https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/204229/historic-north-sea-industry-building-topples-after-price-plunge/

Edited by shortbread

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If they're knocking it down, what will they be putting up in its place? There are already plenty of empty offices, yards, workshops, hotel rooms, retail spaces and unsold houses in the area.

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12 minutes ago, Diver Dan said:

If they're knocking it down, what will they be putting up in its place? There are already plenty of empty offices, yards, workshops, hotel rooms, retail spaces and unsold houses in the area.

More houses from the looks of it!

The positive from that is prospective buyers benefit from more choice, increased competition and falling prices! What's not to like?

The shocker is the £16 Million plus hit Cromwell group took when getting rid of it. The final figure might be closer to a 20 Million loss, interest et all....

Pretty sure there are many more commercial property landlords having similar thoughts at the moment. 

Edited by shortbread

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42 minutes ago, Diver Dan said:

 

 

Well, there has been a small uptick in house prices for Q2:

Screenshot_20190725-181125__01.thumb.jpg.11013643688624b5e4da775b0b2e8b34.jpg

ASPC Q2 2019 Report

ASPC at 6954 for sale and 766 for rent.

Citylets at 1322 of which 1133 are flats

The ASPC house price index were the only ones to show an uptick in previous cycles as well. Strangely their methodology clearly states that they do handpick data:

'The price changes shown in Table 1 are calculated after having controlled for thequality of houses that are sold'

..... and Aberdeen University washing hands with the final para!

'The University of Aberdeen makes no representation or warranty of any kind in relation to the information and/or data provided in this report, and all such representations or warranties, whether express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of accuracy, completeness, fitness for any particular purpose and non-infringement, are hereby, to the maximum extent permitted by law, excluded and extinguished.'

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  • 294 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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