House Prices Crashing?

[Jake]

Can anybody clearly say prices seem to be coming down in the UK yet?

[redgenieuk]

Can anybody clearly say prices seem to be coming down in the UK yet?

..... errrr.......... hmmmm......

RB..... Over to you....

[Realistbear]

Seasonally adjusted, nominally, mix-adjusted, gross, inflation adjusted or otherwise spun?

[Realistbear]

I live very close to Studley in WARCKS and the data is as follows:

Average Property Selling Prices in Studley (£000's)

Feb 2006 Feb 2007 Change

Detached £249,850 £218,000 -13%

Semi £171,533 £178,000 +4%

Terraced £139,604 £134,317 -4%

Flat - - -

All £173,943 £169,492 -3%

Median Property Selling Prices in Studley (£000's)

Feb 2006 Feb 2007 Change

Detached £249,850 £218,000 -13%

Semi £171,500 £178,000 +4%

Terraced £149,607 £131,000 -12%

Flat - - -

Number of Properties Sold in Studley

Feb 2006 Jan 2007 Change

Detached 2 3 +50%

Semi 6 4 -33%

Terraced 4 3 -25%

Flat 0 0 0%

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1

REAL prices, in all their unspun glory.

Bottom line: if you want to know what is going on check your local area. Are there any price reduced signs in the EA windows? Notice a lot of SSTCs coming back on the market? Talk to some EAs, some are willing to be honest.

[redgenieuk]

Seasonally adjusted, nominally, mix-adjusted, gross, inflation adjusted or otherwise spun?

Any of them..... as many as possible...... hell we could just do a GB and make them up!!!! lol

I don't know if its relevent but I have a suspission that a house near us which was sold at 295,000 is today worth 38p less than yesterday. Probably the first sign of a downturn near us that i have noticed.

Maybe I should ask people who have recently bought if they would sell there house for less than they paid for it? If they say yes then we are onto a winner

[othello]

Seasonally adjusted, nominally, mix-adjusted, gross, inflation adjusted or otherwise spun?

Exactly. Statistics are almost pointless. The only ones I'm interested in are LR figures, but unfortunately they lag by up to 6 months.

[Guest AuntJess]

I live very close to Studley in WARCKS and the data is as follows:

Average Property Selling Prices in Studley (£000's)

Feb 2006 Feb 2007 Change

Detached £249,850 £218,000 -13%

Semi £171,533 £178,000 +4%

Terraced £139,604 £134,317 -4%

Flat - - -

All £173,943 £169,492 -3%

Median Property Selling Prices in Studley (£000's)

Feb 2006 Feb 2007 Change

Detached £249,850 £218,000 -13%

Semi £171,500 £178,000 +4%

Terraced £149,607 £131,000 -12%

Flat - - -

Number of Properties Sold in Studley

Feb 2006 Jan 2007 Change

Detached 2 3 +50%

Semi 6 4 -33%

Terraced 4 3 -25%

Flat 0 0 0%

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1

REAL prices, in all their unspun glory.

Bottom line: if you want to know what is going on check your local area. Are there any price reduced signs in the EA windows? Notice a lot of SSTCs coming back on the market? Talk to some EAs, some are willing to be honest.

.....unlike one I encountered. He asked what price range I was looking for and when I said that I was waiting for them to come down, his frozen-faced stare and " "Oh they won't come down" said it all.

God I can't wait for those guys to have to start earning a living - for a change. For years many houses have sold themselves to punters, who , scared by the threat of "shortages", have rushed in to buy any old hovel for an obscene price.

Edited May 4, 2007 by AuntJess

[adrian101]

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...mp;endyear=2007

Aug 2006 Feb 2007 Change for Maidenhead

Detached £520,653 £403,325 -23%

Semi £271,206 £266,859 -2%

Terraced £244,394 £241,431 -1%

Flat £175,758 £183,333 +4%

All £309,739 £279,887 -10%

Maidenhead is frothy and slowly going down, we'll see

[cash_buyer]

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...ticle786871.ece

House prices plunge in Blair's constituency

Homeowners in Tony Blair’s constituency suffered the largest falls in house prices seen in the UK last year.

According to figures published today by the Nationwide, while prices throughout the whole of England rose by nearly 2 per cent, prices in the North fell by 2.1 per cent in 2005, with the biggest local fall seen in Sedgefield, which the Prime Minister has represented as an MP since 1983.

"The price falls in Sedgefield are a reflection of the poorer economic condictions in the area and a weaker labour market," Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's group economist, told Times Online. "The North East is one of the poorest regions in the UK."

Ms Earley added that prices had also fallen back after overshooting. House price inflation carried on rising in the North for longer than the UK as a whole. It reached a peak of more than 36 per cent at the start of 2003, significantly higher than the 26 per cent peak in the UK as a whole, according to Nationwide.

Related Links

Just what is going on with the housing market?

House prices are set to rise

Don’t get suckered by the house price rally

Overall, the lender's figures reinforced suggestions that the property market has achieved a soft landing. Price growth in England came in at a subdued 1.8 per cent for the whole of 2005, while prices fell a shade in Wales, by 0.1 per cent.

However, there were still areas where prices forged ahead. Property prices grew by 13.2 per cent in Northern Ireland and 9.3 per cent in Scotland in 2005.

Dundee and Angus saw the fastest rate of house price growth in Britain, spiralling by 24.5 per cent. In England, the fastest growth was seen in the City of Manchester, where prices rose by 11.9 per cent.

Tony Blair owns a six-bedroomed house in Sedgefield. His constituency’s soft housing market will add to the Prime Minister's already mixed record when it comes to investing in property.

In 2002, the Prime Minister was involved in scandal when it was revealed that the convicted fraudster Peter Foster had helped his wife, Cherie Blair, negotiate the purchase of two luxury flats in Bristol. In 2004, the Blairs spent £3.6 million on a Georgian townhouse in Connaught Square in London, with a mortgage reportedly secured on Mr Blair's future earnings. Amid suggestions the Blairs had overpaid some analysts said the purchase represented on of the enduring political mysteries of the year: why buy at the top of the property cycle?

However, the outlook in 2006 for property owners such as the Blairs looks reasonably bright, according to the Nationwide. The lender said today that house price growth accelerated in the final quarter of 2005. Prices increased by 1.5 per cent between October and December, their fastest quarterly increase for more than a year.

Compared with the fourth quarter last year prices were 3.2 per cent higher, making the price of a typical house in the UK £158,745. Prices accelerated in all of the UK regions in the final quarter, with the exception of the Wales, Northern and East Midlands regions where prices all fell.

The more positive data followed a report from the Halifax yesterday which showed that property prices had risen at their fastest annual pace for seven months during December.

Average house prices nationwide jumped by 1 per cent last month, on the heels of a similar gain in November, according to the survey from the nation’s biggest lender.

Looking ahead, Nationwide said the rate of house price growth across the UK to differ according to the strength of local jobs markets, ranging from falls of 2 per cent to gains of 5 per cent.

According to Nationwide first time buyers in Greater London find it hardest to afford to buy. More than 66 per cent of take home pay is eaten up in mortgage payments compared to only 33 per cent in Scotland.

But affordability improved in London and the South East in 2005. During the year the proportion of take home pay taken up by mortgage payments fell by more than 2.5 percentage points in London. Due to rapidly increasing prices, affordability deteriorated most in Northern Ireland where mortgage payments account for 44.2 per cent of take home pay compared to 40 per cent at the end of 2004.

[redgenieuk]

Any of them..... as many as possible...... hell we could just do a GB and make them up!!!! lol

I don't know if its relevent but I have a suspission that a house near us which was sold at 295,000 is today worth 38p less than yesterday. Probably the first sign of a downturn near us that i have noticed.

Maybe I should ask people who have recently bought if they would sell there house for less than they paid for it? If they say yes then we are onto a winner

RB Everyone yelled at me when i quoted figures from there they said they were wrong! )

[ChinaReader]

Isn't this taking the fun out of the debate! I mean, now that prices are actually visibly lower now than last year in some places, there's no more argument to be had about whether prices will drop or not.

Phooey.

[refusnik]

I live very close to Studley in WARCKS and the data is as follows:

...

Feb 2006 Jan 2007 Change

Detached 2 3 +50%

Semi 6 4 -33%

Terraced 4 3 -25%

...

REAL prices, in all their unspun glory.

Are you serious or just taking the piss - with 3 houses dataset statistics?

[wotnocrash]

Number of Properties Sold in Studley

Feb 2006 Jan 2007 Change

Detached 2 3 +50%

Semi 6 4 -33%

Terraced 4 3 -25%

Flat 0 0 0%

[

so your argument is based on a total sample of 10 properties.... hardly conclusive!

[notthereyet]

Can anybody clearly say prices seem to be coming down in the UK yet?

I have regularly monitored the amount of houses for sale between 100k and 150k in a two mile radius of my address on WWW.HOME.CO.UK and the number for sale have not varied a great deal, but the quality of houses has improved greatly,Therefore prices must be comming down.

[sortofsilver]

I live in Redditch, Worcestershire and cant really say i have noticed any reductions. Having said that there are a quite a few flats that have been built around 2-3 years ago and around half of these have still not been sold.

Edited May 4, 2007 by sortofsilver

[Guest d23]

REAL prices, in all their unspun glory.

Bottom line: if you want to know what is going on check your local area. Are there any price reduced signs in the EA windows? Notice a lot of SSTCs coming back on the market? Talk to some EAs, some are willing to be honest.

'unspun glory' home.co.uk's figures have been discredited on here many times (and by RB on occasion when it suits him)

if you really think that we can draw conclusions from 10 properties near you then I guess we can say that house prices are indeed 'crashing'

on the other hand you could have chosen other areas near you like redditch where apparently flats have gone up 120% in the same period, Alcester where theres been a 83% increase in all properties, bromsgrove where theres been 17% increase, Nuneaton where theres been a 21% increase, warwick which has seen a 16% increase etc etc

these figures are no good imo, there so all over the place you could use them to spin anything you wanted really

[DataMonkey]

Based on this I think we can definately say prices are coming down!!!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-750...=1&tr_t=buy

[bazzzzzzz]

I live very close to Studley in WARCKS and the data is as follows:

Average Property Selling Prices in Studley (£000's)

Feb 2006 Feb 2007 Change

Detached £249,850 £218,000 -13%

Semi £171,533 £178,000 +4%

Terraced £139,604 £134,317 -4%

Flat - - -

All £173,943 £169,492 -3%

Median Property Selling Prices in Studley (£000's)

Feb 2006 Feb 2007 Change

Detached £249,850 £218,000 -13%

Semi £171,500 £178,000 +4%

Terraced £149,607 £131,000 -12%

Flat - - -

Number of Properties Sold in Studley

Feb 2006 Jan 2007 Change

Detached 2 3 +50%

Semi 6 4 -33%

Terraced 4 3 -25%

Flat 0 0 0%

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1

REAL prices, in all their unspun glory.

Bottom line: if you want to know what is going on check your local area. Are there any price reduced signs in the EA windows? Notice a lot of SSTCs coming back on the market? Talk to some EAs, some are willing to be honest.

I'm assuming you jest when you post these figures as evidence of price falls.

[Guest Shedfish]

some food for thought in Staffs

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=45048

and a flat i've been watching for a while

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=619914

[Wad]

I live in Redditch, Worcestershire and cant really say i have noticed any reductions. Having said that there are a quite a few flats that have been built around 2-3 years ago and around half of these have still not been sold.

I offered on a house today in Worcestershire at 10% below asking. The house has been on the market 8 months and has fallen through at least twice over that period after the owner had accepted asking price offers.

I offered to buy at a 10% discount today as I am a cash buyer and am also willing to move just as quickly as the vendor wishes. However, he/she feels they would like to wait and see if they can get another asking price offer over the next 6 months.

My view is that there are still asking price offers being made in Worcestershire but all of these are contingent on someone being able to sell their own house at the asking price. Hence there are lots under offer, a few asking prices are being reduced on family sized houses and especially flats but not enough to get transaction volumes up. The market has effectively therefore seized up. Interest rates are the key from now on.

[membrane]

look for yourselves over the next few months for Salisbury, if the last 18 months are anything to go by you'll be pleased (bears).

no facts, just my own observations of someone wanting to buy in Salisbury & looking constantly. I stand to be corrected (I watch rightmove.)

I can't prove anything & wont try to, no random picking out of statistics that suits my opinion just see for yourselves.

can't be fairer than that.

any takers????

[Casual Observer]

A sight for sore eyes innit?

Have you noticed they've removed the sales office (portakabin) from the Kings Oak dev. on the Bath Rd just outside Taplow (nr. Sainsburys)? The poor lass in there was just about ready to top herself from the boredom I suspect.

PS. Kings Oak are no more, they've been amalgamated back into the Barratt fold...

Can we get a bit of common sense about these local LR figures?

In my area we have an estate of bog-standard, smallish, box-shaped detached houses that sell for around 450k.

Another part of the patch has a very upmarket area where gated houses on a private estate go for around 1.5 million.

If in 1 month 10 of the small ones and 3 of the large ones sell, the average works out to 900k.

The next month, 12 small ones might sell and 1 big one. The result? An average price of about 531k.

Think about it folks - these stats are not indicators of price movements. The volumes and mixes are not constant. This was all explained to RB about 16 months ago, when he posted this rubbish almost daily, to prove that the crash "started" in 2006. He didn't seem to grasp it.

Edited May 4, 2007 by Casual Observer

[Casual Observer]

1) I'm not looking to live anywhere near you...

2) I trust my own eyes as always...

So my explanation about how RB's figures are not reliable indicators was a bit too complex for you to understand then?

Anyone else understand it well enough to knock my explanation down in flames or agree with me?

[Casual Observer]

You seem rather perturbed CO, care to let us in on what ails you?

National house builders are consolidating their regional offices in tandem with revising their costs and margins as we speak. Doesn't take a genius to figure out why either, does it?

Come on CO, you've had a good innings, time to settle up. Also, I hope for your sake, that your lad gets through it in one piece btw...

Not at all perturbed. I was just hoping I'd get a bit of sensible debate about the effectiveness of RBs monthly LR figures, is all. As usual though, no-one wants to acknowledge the truth that they don't want to hear

Son's fine thanks. Equity risen to about 100k I reckon. Not bad for a 26 year old.

[bugged bunny]

So my explanation about how RB's figures are not reliable indicators was a bit too complex for you to understand then?

Anyone else understand it well enough to knock my explanation down in flames or agree with me?

I agree with you.

I monitor local asking and selling prices on particular types of property in order to guage local HPI.

The market seems to have slowed down and be stagnating in my area after rising about 15% during 2007. There are quite a few price reductions for newly converted 1-bed flats, but usually because the vendors are chancers who were taking the piss with the original asking price.