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House Price Crash Forum


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About ChinaReader

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    Here and there
  • About Me
    I'll watch the little graphs go up and learn enough Mandarin that when China buys America (in cash) I can be a waiter instead of just a shoe-shine boy. :-)

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  1. Excellent question. The answer is the first one. We have: Space... 0.1% of land in the UK is currently 'continuous urban fabric' (read: jam-packed city-scape). Including all housing, we reach 2%. "Ordnance Survey data suggests that all the buildings in the UK - houses, shops, offices, factories, greenhouses - cover 1.4% of the total land surface. Looking at England alone, the figure still rises to only 2%. Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41901297 Labour... Labour availability? In a lot of places construction is termed as low-skilled. Materials... These are cheap, even the upgrade to the flame-retardant version. Political will... Not at the moment. But political will changes with elections. If we get a centrist or populist or left-wing government, they can fix a housing problem and an employment problem with one policy, and make GDP look good into the bargain. It's a win! Not yet. But that's what will change, IMHO.
  2. "Globalisation means that you are competing with a billion people in India for your job. And they are hungry."
  3. Chappy's 2015 story was utterly depressing. Your horrendously painful pun has lifted my spirits.
  4. Yeah, his sum surprised me: 9 years at 4% effectively knocks 30% off... if you weren't paying interest on a debt. 9 years at 7% would get you to half though...
  5. If you're "close to the line" the conventional breaks down slightly. i.e. if you think in a year from now you won't be able to afford your regular outgoings you'd be likely to try and save up a bit now. That suggests a high level of fiscal prudence on the part of individuals though, especially compared to, for example, the consumer behaviour at the end of 2008: 'It may be a horrific credit crunch and recession, but let's have a great Christmas shopping spree and worry about it in 2009!"
  6. It's not my imagination is it: China and the UK both have similar (reported) levels of inflation. Lucky for the UK it's a growth economy (!)
  7. Do a viewing, try and meet the person selling it. Have a copy of the rightmove print out in your hand. Offer them the price on the strap line, the lower end of the range. If they'd never sell for that then they have recourse to have a word with their agent.
  8. "Just holding on for that magical day when we too can afford an overpriced low spec new build. [Cue theatrical sigh.]"
  9. One of the very rare sellers who wants to get ahead of the curve and sell, rather than chasing the market down blow by painful blow? (Doubley worth checking for problems though - what's their rush?! )
  10. Bricks and timber and labour you can work out average prices. But how much did the land cost? Mud in a rural field with a protected tree has a lower price tag than mud with planning permission in a field next to roads and utility supplies. Land prices confuse reasonable calculation of cost and value.
  11. Does anyone remember the HPC video? It had a catchy theme tune and mocked Gordon's claims of "stagflation"... I'd be very reluctant to agree with our former 'leader', but a crash based on inflation rather than actual falls from here on in seems to be just that - stagflation.
  12. Good post. To any critics of your approach I'd argue bankruptcy should be for situations like yours. As a member of society you now pay it back bit by bit, with a little income tax here and occasional bank charges there I imagine, maybe an insurance premium or two, and lower interest on any savings compared to higher interest on any small loans you may have. And if you work your way up to become an A1 mortgage repayee, you'll more than repay £20k in interest over a 25 year term. Not quite model credit citizen, but not a candidate for pitchfork treatment either.
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