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Everything posted by ChinaReader

  1. Excellent question. The answer is the first one. We have: Space... 0.1% of land in the UK is currently 'continuous urban fabric' (read: jam-packed city-scape). Including all housing, we reach 2%. "Ordnance Survey data suggests that all the buildings in the UK - houses, shops, offices, factories, greenhouses - cover 1.4% of the total land surface. Looking at England alone, the figure still rises to only 2%. Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41901297 Labour... Labour availability? In a lot of places construction is termed as low-skilled. Materials... These are cheap, even the upgrade to the flame-retardant version. Political will... Not at the moment. But political will changes with elections. If we get a centrist or populist or left-wing government, they can fix a housing problem and an employment problem with one policy, and make GDP look good into the bargain. It's a win! Not yet. But that's what will change, IMHO.
  2. "Globalisation means that you are competing with a billion people in India for your job. And they are hungry."
  3. Chappy's 2015 story was utterly depressing. Your horrendously painful pun has lifted my spirits.
  4. Yeah, his sum surprised me: 9 years at 4% effectively knocks 30% off... if you weren't paying interest on a debt. 9 years at 7% would get you to half though...
  5. If you're "close to the line" the conventional breaks down slightly. i.e. if you think in a year from now you won't be able to afford your regular outgoings you'd be likely to try and save up a bit now. That suggests a high level of fiscal prudence on the part of individuals though, especially compared to, for example, the consumer behaviour at the end of 2008: 'It may be a horrific credit crunch and recession, but let's have a great Christmas shopping spree and worry about it in 2009!"
  6. It's not my imagination is it: China and the UK both have similar (reported) levels of inflation. Lucky for the UK it's a growth economy (!)
  7. Do a viewing, try and meet the person selling it. Have a copy of the rightmove print out in your hand. Offer them the price on the strap line, the lower end of the range. If they'd never sell for that then they have recourse to have a word with their agent.
  8. "Just holding on for that magical day when we too can afford an overpriced low spec new build. [Cue theatrical sigh.]"
  9. One of the very rare sellers who wants to get ahead of the curve and sell, rather than chasing the market down blow by painful blow? (Doubley worth checking for problems though - what's their rush?! )
  10. Bricks and timber and labour you can work out average prices. But how much did the land cost? Mud in a rural field with a protected tree has a lower price tag than mud with planning permission in a field next to roads and utility supplies. Land prices confuse reasonable calculation of cost and value.
  11. Does anyone remember the HPC video? It had a catchy theme tune and mocked Gordon's claims of "stagflation"... I'd be very reluctant to agree with our former 'leader', but a crash based on inflation rather than actual falls from here on in seems to be just that - stagflation.
  12. Good post. To any critics of your approach I'd argue bankruptcy should be for situations like yours. As a member of society you now pay it back bit by bit, with a little income tax here and occasional bank charges there I imagine, maybe an insurance premium or two, and lower interest on any savings compared to higher interest on any small loans you may have. And if you work your way up to become an A1 mortgage repayee, you'll more than repay £20k in interest over a 25 year term. Not quite model credit citizen, but not a candidate for pitchfork treatment either.
  13. Articulate stuff. But I did count 9 (I think) self-conscious glances at the camera. He's there to get on YouTube and win "votes back home" more than to change opinions within the other MEPs, and that isn't really what he's paid for.
  14. Fun discussions, but if banks run out of reserves and FSA guarantee was rescinded, there surely isn't a scenario where people continue to walk around paying each other with the little bits of paper that we currently put so much faith in.
  15. 10% falls before a change of IR. 0.5% IR is the wait-and-see setting for the Bank of England, waiting for someone else to flinch first. 10% falls and someone else will flinch first. The CSR may have been that someone flinching, at least on paper.
  16. Found the answer for you cheval. According to this article: linky 1150 is a reduction of 2.5% of the number of managers and senior managers. That means the original number was 46,000, and they're now down to 44,850. Doesn't seem a lot for 1.2 million folk / 1 million FTE. Management theory suggest you can effectively manage 8-10 people, not 22-25 as this would suggest they do. So: - sack some and push the role of coordinating it all onto clinicians? Or, - hire more and make it their job to ensure everything's in place for the clinicians to do clinical work? "Fixing the NHS" - sounds easy.
  17. True. We may now start the mutual appreciation section of the thread.
  18. Emphasis added. I suspect they operate with a little caution since they're first for the chop in populist media. But you're exactly right in that sometimes priorities get confused: the role of good manages is to equip and enable front line staff with the support, systems, processes and resources they need to get the job done.
  19. Excellent work at indignation, but sorely misplaced. 1) Never read the Daily Mail. Ever. 2) The NHS has been the 3rd/4th largest employer for decades - it's not news. 3) Hiring 5 thousand on a base of 1.626 million is virtually nothing. 4) It doesn't say the 5000 were managers. 5) Compared to other, 'efficient', private sector companies, the NHS is undermanaged by 75%, and hence examples of misallocated resources exists, as mentioned by other posts, abound. 6) In one year managers went up 12 per cent, nurses two per cent. Clearly there were more nurses beforehand, so more than likely that was actually more nurses hired than managers. Why does everyone seem to think the NHS could be run by 1.2 million nurses and no-one coordinating the thing?! A non-story of ill informed populist hype. Or, as it likes to be known, the Daily Mail.
  20. Time to postulate my unpopular theory : Every chancer and time waster throws their house onto the market now that it's free again. Most are ignored by impoverished would-be mortgagees. A few, a very few, sell above the odds because the lady of the house falls in love with the kitchen, or the man of the house with the double garage, so they make a purchase. And what does this look like in the metrics? Short term increase in average sale price. I told you it wouldn't be a popular theory. [Puts on asbestos trousers] You may now object. But in the end fundamentals will override the turbulence. So keep calm and carry on.
  21. 1) Same phenomenon as Woolworths: when one company in a sector goes to the wall it's that bit easier for all their former competitors. 2) I was walking round one of England's fair retail emporia yesterday - it felt '2007ish'. Sun shining, tills ticking over, people buying stuff embivalently that they didn't need. Reality isn't central to everyone's thinking it seems!
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