Gold Is Going South Now

[ex-MEWer]

There was also forced selling by longs to cover margin calls on their equities as mentioned on several sites. It all gets rather technical.

[dnd]

There was also forced selling by longs to cover margin calls on their equities as mentioned on several sites. It all gets rather technical.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/node/649

"If you are long in gold and hold shares as collateral to cover margin requirements, then you have to sell when the stock markets fall," said a dealer in Singapore to Reuters earlier.

"This is also related to long positions in New York. That's what we call a chain effect. But bargain hunters are coming in because the price is cheap and good."

"This never was a gold-market specific problem," said John Reade, an analyst at UBS in London to Bloomberg. "[Gold] was reacting to other stuff.

Edited February 28, 2007 by dnd

[domo]

bullish sentiment on gold has been ridiculous for a while now

that alone makes it a risky investment

[dnd]

bullish sentiment on gold has been ridiculous for a while now

same could be said of fiat money supply....

[tahoma]

bullish sentiment on gold has been ridiculous for a while now

that alone makes it a risky investment

Yeah I've noticed that. There are forty magazines in WH Smiths on Gold investment, Phil and Kirsty are on their 12th series of 'Bullion Bullion Bullion' and 'Resmelt Resmelt Resmelt', Julia Caesar is beaming about the run up to $690, and I heard an old lady in the laundrette wittering about how her daughter in law is investing in a new Gold ETF.

Oh, hang on...

No. The only place you hear about AU is contrarian 'loony bins' like this. That is not 'bullish sentiment' by any relative measure. I am heavily into Gold, and my family, friends and colleagues think I am a s*dding loon. They may be right, but it is my money and that is exactly the way it is going to stay, thank you Mr Broon.

Edited March 1, 2007 by tahoma

[Pluto]

bullish sentiment on gold has been ridiculous for a while now

that alone makes it a risky investment

Bullish? Who do you know that is bullish on precious metals? Internet characters with Disney and other ridiculous names not included.

Are your in-laws on at you to borrow 10X earnings so you can buy some precious metals?

If this is ridiculous bullishness then I wonder what you are going say when Gold starts going up in thousands.

Edited March 1, 2007 by Pluto

[Harry Sacks]

Yeah I've noticed that. There are forty magazines in WH Smiths on Gold investment, Phil and Kirsty are on their 12th series of 'Bullion Bullion Bullion' and 'Resmelt Resmelt Resmelt', Julia Caesar is beaming about the run up to $690, and I heard an old lady in the laundrette wittering about how her daughter in law is investing in a new Gold ETF.

Oh, hang on...

No. The only place you hear about AU is contrarian 'loony bins' like this. That is not 'bullish sentiment' by any relative measure.

Indeed.

Had the strangest conversation with this guy on a stall at the local market a few weeks back. I was asking about a gold ring he was selling and mentioned how well gold had done the past couple of years. The guy had no idea and stared blankly at me. I guess he thought it was still <$300.

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

RB, you should avoid posting about gold. You just don't get it and have been consistently wrong with your "ooh, gold is crashing" threads. Give it up, stick to what you are good at!

Ramping the dollar mostly.

am heavily into Gold, and my family, friends and colleagues think I am a s*dding loon. They may be right, but it is my money and that is exactly the way it is going to stay, thank you Mr Broon.

Damn right.

[Goldfinger]

No. The only place you hear about AU is contrarian 'loony bins' like this. That is not 'bullish sentiment' by any relative measure. I am heavily into Gold, and my family, friends and colleagues think I am a s*dding loon. They may be right, but it is my money and that is exactly the way it is going to stay, thank you Mr Broon.

Gold did very well in the last few hours. Perhaps the Aussies start to trust more in yellow metal than

in Chinese stocks? I hope Hong Kong won't ruin the re-bounce

Anyway, I predict higher than USD 680 for the London AM fix.

Yeah, my relatives also think I am slightly nuts. My girlfriend is shutting down when I only use the

word "g*ld", and my colleagues at work think I could as well invest in iron or diamonds, what's the

difference anyway. I'll tried to explain, but, oh well...

Goldfinger

Edited March 1, 2007 by goldfinger

[dnd]

Climbing quite steeply as we speak...

http://www.bullionvault.com/chart.html

[GCS15]

Dang - Silver is up. I'd like a longer lead time to add to my stash.

[aardvark]

my friends at work also think i'm a bit mad for buying some krugerrands - and i only intend on getting 10 (for now anyway) - its as if i'm suggesting investing in jelly by the looks on their faces.

[GCS15]

my friends at work also think i'm a bit mad for buying some krugerrands - and i only intend on getting 10 (for now anyway) - its as if i'm suggesting investing in jelly by the looks on their faces.

The first rule of fightclub investing in gold is don't talk about fightclub investing in gold

[housepricepooer]

my friends at work also think i'm a bit mad for buying some krugerrands - and i only intend on getting 10 (for now anyway) - its as if i'm suggesting investing in jelly by the looks on their faces.

I don't post that much but I am compelled to respond to Realist Bear's scaremongering.

He told us early in January that gold was going to 'crash' through $600 and go down from there.

I asked for a more balanced approach and made the case for the upside. Gold then started to climb all the way to $690 in five weeks.

Now more scaremongering! All I can say once again is 'more balance please'!

Gold is in the $670's this morning and it might go up, down or stay the same from here.

I have £150,000 in gold and am hoping for the best. Is that not called 'investing'?

Realistbear, should you not change your name to 'Goldshorter'!

Glad for the debate though and best wishes to all

P

[Lost Weekend]

I can see gold at $3,000 within 10 years, or maybe 5.

GlobalEdgeInvestors.com

Are you prepared to back that with cold hard cash?

If so, then get back to me, we'll go on betfair and make a little wager.

There is not a hope in hell of gold getting anywhere near 3K US anytime in the next 5 to 10 years.

[LargelyIgnorant]

my friends at work also think i'm a bit mad for buying some krugerrands - and i only intend on getting 10 (for now anyway) - its as if i'm suggesting investing in jelly by the looks on their faces.

Sovereigns are apparently CGT exempt and they are more divisible than krugerrands - If you needed to raise approx £100 you could just sell one sovereign, rather than one £340 krugerrand, you can thus average in or out easier.

[debtfree]

Are you prepared to back that with cold hard cash?

If so, then get back to me, we'll go on betfair and make a little wager.

There is not a hope in hell of gold getting anywhere near 3K US anytime in the next 5 to 10 years.

3K is a bit much.

More like the $1500-1800 range

[dnd]

You can't deny the fundementals...

March 1 (Bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...mmodity_futures

Gold rose for a second day on speculation that a weaker dollar may prompt increased demand from investors for an alternative asset.

Edited March 1, 2007 by dnd

[purplemonkey]

You can't deny the fundementals...

March 1 (Bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...mmodity_futures

I've been thinking of buying gold due to being worried about this whole inflation business. but looking at it, in the long term. if in 1990 you bought 100,000GBP worth of gold, it would now be worth 154,000GBP. humm, if I had bought a house for 100,000GBP in 1990 that would be worth depending on area etc... 190,000GBP(plus I would have saved rental payments due to living in the house). so houses outperform gold do they not? and looking at the graph of gold over 20years, they seem to follow the house prices quite closely, ie rising since 1999. I'm starting to think gold not all that. unless you buy and sell everyday on the peaks and troughs of course, but who can afford that time?

[cells]

I've been thinking of buying gold due to being worried about this whole inflation business. but looking at it, in the long term. if in 1990 you bought 100,000GBP worth of gold, it would now be worth 154,000GBP. humm, if I had bought a house for 100,000GBP in 1990 that would be worth depending on area etc... 190,000GBP(plus I would have saved rental payments due to living in the house). so houses outperform gold do they not? and looking at the graph of gold over 20years, they seem to follow the house prices quite closely, ie rising since 1999. I'm starting to think gold not all that. unless you buy and sell everyday on the peaks and troughs of course, but who can afford that time?

Gold is as fiat as your GBP. It has no backing of and in itself and has no real value

if i was to invest in PM to safeguard against inflation i would look into metals that have a particular special use.

for example, silver. it has the lowest resistance of any standard metal at standard conditions so it has a intrinsic value in manufacturing ect

another might be titanium, being extremely strong and used greatly in high tech high price fighter jets and commercial jet engines

gold has very few distinct advantages that give it value.

Edited March 1, 2007 by cells

[Goldfinger]

Gold is as fiat as your GBP. It has no backing of and in itself and has no real value

if i was to invest in PM to safeguard against inflation i would look into metals that have a particular special use.

for example, silver. it has the lowest resistance of any standard metal at standard conditions so it has a intrinsic value in manufacturing ect

another might be titanium, being extremely strong and used greatly in high tech high price fighter jets and commercial jet engines

gold has very few distinct advantages that give it value.

That gold has not that many industrial applications is in fact one of the main reasons to buy it: it won't

rely on industrial demand so much. There is a reason why silver is more volatile than gold!

Gold is famously useless - except for two things: jewellery & store of wealth. You honestly want to place

a bet against these two? Remember, gold has been used for these purposes for all of known human

history, i.e. for thousands of years. Keep in mind, around 70% of all mined gold is jewellery, 20% is central

bank deposits, 10% is privately owned investment gold. Furthermore, gold IS in place as a financial

instrument. Central banks hoard gold, not really silver or palladium. I.e. gold is ready to fulfill its purpose

once more.

Goldfinger

EDIT: Yes, there will always be GPI and GPC as there are HPI and HPC. The only thing you have to figure out is

when to do what. Its simple enough when you look at RPI-adjusted HP and RPI-adjusted GP. In fact, it's really

an absolute no-brainer.

Edited March 1, 2007 by goldfinger

[TTID]

if in 1990 you bought 100,000GBP worth of gold, it would now be worth 154,000GBP. humm, if I had bought a house for 100,000GBP in 1990 that would be worth depending on area etc... 190,000GBP(plus I would have saved rental payments due to living in the house). so houses outperform gold do they not?

Sure, if you buy them both in 1990, so let's call H.G. Wells and arrange a trip to go and buy some.

The question today is whether any asset class would outperform any other asset class if you bought in the near future and held them for whetever your investment horizon is.

The historic economic cycle of property is 18 years - 12 years up and six years down. We've been climbing for 12 years.

The historic economic cycle of commodities is for bull markets lasting from 15 to 23 years. We've been climbing for 6 years.

If it was 1990, property would be the better bet (but knowing that prices fell until 1996, the bank would have been a better bet for the first four years).

It's not 1990, so what's the best bet now?

[debtfree]

Gold is as fiat as your GBP. It has no backing of and in itself and has no real value

if i was to invest in PM to safeguard against inflation i would look into metals that have a particular special use.

for example, silver. it has the lowest resistance of any standard metal at standard conditions so it has a intrinsic value in manufacturing ect

another might be titanium, being extremely strong and used greatly in high tech high price fighter jets and commercial jet engines

gold has very few distinct advantages that give it value.

you can't create more gold, whereas you can create more paper money.

it is impossible to manipulate and therefore steal peoples wealth by using inflation seen in paper currency.

gold is REAL money and has been for thousands of years, to argue otherwise is plain stupidity.

whats happening to FIAT money then.... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...fer=commodities

Edited March 1, 2007 by debtfree

[Realistbear]

I've been thinking of buying gold due to being worried about this whole inflation business. but looking at it, in the long term. if in 1990 you bought 100,000GBP worth of gold, it would now be worth 154,000GBP. humm, if I had bought a house for 100,000GBP in 1990 that would be worth depending on area etc... 190,000GBP(plus I would have saved rental payments due to living in the house). so houses outperform gold do they not? and looking at the graph of gold over 20years, they seem to follow the house prices quite closely, ie rising since 1999. I'm starting to think gold not all that. unless you buy and sell everyday on the peaks and troughs of course, but who can afford that time?

100k invested in a very solid and staid mutual fund such as Vanguard's Wellington Fund (the world's first) you would have made a steady 9.79% (10 year average) average every year since 1990:

http://www.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsSna...;FundIntExt=INT

1990 100k

1991 109.79

1992 120.53

1993 132.34

1994 145.29

1995 159.51

1996 175.13

1997 192.28

1998 211.10

1999 231.77

2000 254.46

2001 279.37

2002 306.72

2003 336.75

2004 369.72

2005 405.92

2006 445.66

2007 489.29

This is why I do not buy gold. Mr. Toad's wild ride is good if you can time the market but the magic of compounding in a solid stock-bond mutual fund will beat fiat metals soundly over the long haul. Just think 100k invested in 1990 is now worth almost 500k. Vanguard Wellington is my core investment and there others like it. Not exciting but a steady 9% plus every year on average is nice.

The Wellington Funds performance is as follows:

1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Since Inception

07/01/1929

Wellington Fund Inv 14.97% 10.94% 8.95% 9.79% 8.43%

That is 8.43% every year since 1929. Imagine 100k invested in 1929! Gold? Nah.

[Realistbear]

you can't create more gold, whereas you can create more paper money.

it is impossible to manipulate and therefore steal peoples wealth by using inflation seen in paper currency.

gold is REAL money and has been for thousands of years, to argue otherwise is plain stupidity.

whats happening to FIAT money then.... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...fer=commodities

you can't create more gold, whereas you can create more paper money.

Not a lot of people know this but...........................gold can now be manufactured but the cost is still too high. About $980 per ounce with current technology?

http://chemistry.about.com/cs/generalchemi...a/aa050601a.htm

Transmutation of lead into gold isn't just theoretically possible - it has been achieved! There are reports that Glenn Seaborg, 1951 Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, succeeded in transmuting a minute quantity of lead (possibly en route from bismuth, in 1980) into gold.