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Lost Weekend

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About Lost Weekend

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  1. You still think we're 6 months into a crash then? Or did you identify the massive flaw in your statistical analysis technique yet? House prices are still rising. That's the majr statistic you're looking at when you remove your own brand of spin from the equation. They're rising, not falling.
  2. Don't you ever get tired of spouting this irrational nonsense? You have been as consistently wrong as you have been rabid for the last 3 years for gods sake man. Get a grip. There is no financial collapse around the corner. There isnt even one on the horizon.
  3. Realistically the closest one will be number one. However there are no real warning signs of an imminent crash unless the China starts selling dollars fast, or we get another kind of macro economic shock, such as a war between islam and the west. Number two would only happen if blair and his socialist ilk have permenantly damaged England to the point where recovery is not possible. I believe it will take a generation to sort out their mess, but I dont believe it is impossible. Number 3. Well I'm an optomist and also I'm neutral on the middle term house price fluctuations, and I dont believe for a single second that we will see number 3. Cant say fairer than that.
  4. To clear up a few things here... Firstly it is important to dispell the myth that loans have to be paid back. They dont. In fact a loan that was never repaid is the ultimate goal of the moneylender. They dont make anything i you pay them back. They make money when you pay interest on an ongoing basis. The longer that runs the happier they are. Secondly, the Yen Carry Trade. Bond prices dont affect this nearly as much as RB states. Further to this the growth in the CDO / Fixed Income / Bond market has been exponential in the last few years, and with the natural progression of this market yields will rise as a matter of course. There are now more bond providers wishing to sell bonds than there used to be, and they are all competing for the same pool of money. They do this through the yield - more or less the interest paid on the money loaned in the bond. So, as the bond market changes it does not automatically affect the carry trade. It might had the bond market not grown so much in the last four or five years. As to the Q2 2007 comment RB, really? Care to bet a thousand pounds on that? I'm willing for the following terms: The nominal value of UK houses will not begin a downturn in Q2 2007. A downturn should be measured in the industry standard definition of fallin prices for three consecutive periods. The UK house price we will take is the land registry figure for all properties in it's remit. I'll bet you even money on this if you'd like? I'll even allow a callable option for double or nothing for Q3 2007 once you have paid the money you will ose in Q2. Didnt think you'd want to take that bet. Please RB, stick to the facts and drop the spin, it serves no purpose other than to take away from your more than admirable passion for researching any item that may effect your position.
  5. I'm afraid that I dont agree. I have followed the market in the UK extremely closely since 1998 when first started to get involved, and while the outlook is not as rosy as it was then, I dobt very much that we are in line for a crash in real terms let alone in nominal values. The fundamentals are still strong in terms of UK population growth relative to housing stock, the trend towards smaller number of people living together is also still growing, and as long as people continue to buy the market will continue to grow completely irrespective of the financial clout of the historical first time buyer. Your upper bound for projection of a crash seems to be 2010, correct me if I'm wrong here, however I would make the arguement that predicting any market more than 12 months into the future becomes an exercise in speculation rather than rational analysis. I dont believe the market is illiquid for property either, having sold my flat in Feb this year within 2 hours of instructing the estate agents, and receiving the full asking price - which was the highest valuation from 6 agents. While this is anecdotal rather than an established piece of research, I would take as my case that there are no signs at all of average sale lengths growing rapidly or asking prices falling, which would be a case for an illiquid market. The market in the UK is very different to the market in the US - some of which is falling, an some of which is growing still. I would argue that the Americans have nothing like the rate of demographic change we are experiencing relative to housing numbers. Their population as a percentage is not outstripping their construction industry in the same way ours is. I would finally state that UK banks are much more responsible than American ones, have tighter lending criteria, and make better provision for tougher markets. I seriously doubt you will find a single person who honestly thinks there will be a crash in the next 12 months. I was lambasted by certain members of the site for daring to state this for the first time a few months ago and fully expect to be so again. I'm still right, and they still arent - prices prove my case.
  6. Sorry, but you're excelling even your own high standards for spin this morning. A lack of liquidity in the bond market is a long time overdue - do you have any idea how much this market has exploded in the last few years with the rise of the structured investment vehicle? It's nothing more than a sign of the recent success of the fixed income markets. With regard to banking stocks the only potential for price drops is that the dividend may not rise inline with optomistic expectations should they have to increase provisions for bad debts - the 5 star retail banks such as Barclays have been doing this gradually for the last 5 years and are in a prime position to provide liquidity to the market should there be a credit crunch. So in summary, while your 14+ average posts a day are an absolute gem (promise me you'll never stop) for their sheer optomistic take on any pessimistic data which you pull off admirably, maybe a little disclaimer for the financially unaware wouldnt go amiss - I dont think anyone on this site would deliberately steer others in the wrong direction. Lost.
  7. Post of the thread, by a long margin. If property prices crashed this month, given that I sold to rent last month, I'd be up by a long way. I however do not want to see that happen as it would be extremely bad for the UK as a whole, and next to nobody would benefit. Sure there are plenty of people who think they'll benefit, but most will not. Ask yourself this, how many people's lifestyle improved in the last recession? That's right, not a single person who wasn't all ready loaded before it began.
  8. Are you prepared to back that with cold hard cash? If so, then get back to me, we'll go on betfair and make a little wager. There is not a hope in hell of gold getting anywhere near 3K US anytime in the next 5 to 10 years.
  9. I've also travelled and worked globally, though in my case I'd always been resident in England - just a month here, a week there abroad for work. Not anymore. I applied for permenant residency in Australia, it took nearly two years to get with a whole lifetime of hassle squeezed into it. I now live and work in Perth in Western Australia, and while I've only been here for 4 months so far, my initial impressions were that I wouldnt be going back. Those still remain. The worrying thing for the future of GB Plc is that everyone I know in my income bracket is applying for visa's and planning to leave. The reasons are all the same: High taxes without the quality or quantity or services commensurate with the expenditure; Ironically, the high number of immigrants arriving in GB; Media & government disproportionate attention to 'woried mum' groups like transport2000, religious groups, and environmentalists. None of those issues really effect a number of countries such as Australia, Canada, or a host of other places. Having said that I really do miss my season ticket for Newcastle United.
  10. I see where you're going with it, and should the money supply suddenly dry up it would almost certainly signal the end of this bull market. However, the downgrade was a downgrade of the stock, not their loan book. This does not signal any potential credit tightening. Furthermore, should a single bank mismanage it's own assets to the point that it must unilaterally tighten it's credit supply, it would not effect the wider market as the other banks would pick up the slack. Having said that, it's unlikely a bank would be able to get itself into such a state as changes would be made at the top long before it got to that stage, especially with a major retail bank.
  11. Hi RB. Can you expand on the reasoning for Lloyds downgrade killing HPI? I'd agree that it's not a very good sign from an economic growth standpoint, however it appears to have been more than countered by the earlier profits new from Barclays. Had the situation been that pretty much the entire UK banking sector had been downgraded, then it would signal very strongly that which you seek. However, surely a reasoned analysis of the loan book of Lloyds, in terms of the ratings of their loan book, in comparison to other leading highstreet lenders such as Barclays / Woolwich, HSBC, HBOS etc would shed a little more light on the state of the sector. I think you'll agree that while the banks will certainly have to reprovision for bad debts, that this is a normal point in the economic cycle and indeed something which many banks have already achieved - thus not a signal for the global meltdown as expounded by a few of the usual suspects on this site. Out of interest, what would you expect the market to do over hte next three months with regards to indicators such as the Lloyds downgrade? (ie do you expect S&P / Moodys / Fitch & Mather to be looking more warily on the retail banking sector in the UK, and how many further downgrades would you expect it to take to trigger a credit tightening?) Thanks, Lost.
  12. Crazy Ken Livingstone and his Kengestion charge were very large motivators in my leaving london for good. I refuse to even visit the place unless and until the odious little man is removed from office. The Kengestion charge is one thing, but deliberately slowing traffic in London by 50% just to get it implemented is plain stupid. A journey from Canary Wharf to Heathrow Airport used to take me no longer than 45 minutes by car, precharge. Over the last year it took an average of 90 minutes. Twice as long, twice as much congestion, all burning more fossil fuels and therefore not saving anyones environment. Now Ken's assisted in costing London my wage, and my spending power, which as a percentage of Londons economy was trivial, but then I'm only part of a flood of people leaving the area. It's interesting to note that in 1984 there was exactly the same number of cars on Londons roads, and yet the journey time per mile travelled, was more than twice as efficient as even precharge london. Therefore it would have made sense from an environmental, social, and financial point of view to simply put the roads back as they once were, and saved the public billions, all of which could have been used for real projects to benefit both people and environment.
  13. Absolutely love this thread!!! To to the lot you know these jobs will only require about 5 hours a week of actual work, and a whole lot of sitting on hands or window gazing. Wonder if we should all apply for every single post, at least make the CV readers do some work for their money!!!
  14. I'm afraid you already did resort to name calling for the sake of it. Hence my assertation. If you check my posting history, you'll find that I have not, and will not, accuse most of the people on this site of being either bitter, twisetd, or jealous. I have however asked what happened to you to make you so bitter, which I think when you calm down and read our earlier conversations, was in fact a reasonable question. I still dont agree that buying houses does harm to anyone, although again for the record I am not involved in the housing market and am happy renting presently. In a capitalist society you get basically what you can pay for. It's nobodies fault, that's just the reality of how it works. Instead of unproductively bemoaning a single aspect of the free market economy, I simply suggested that people may wish to examine more closely how to use it in their favour. Again you put words in my mouth when never have I said anyone on here was a loser, let alone the whole site comminuty. I have said repeatedly how useful I have found a number of threads on this site, so please dont take the straw man approach of saying I stated things which never were in order to find something in my post that you feel you can take on. Maybe if there is nothing I have actually said that you can take exception to, you may like to consider what that means. With regard to your being thick, I have not at any stage called you thick. Again it goes to the root of this, you disagree with my original posts, yet you cant find a single thing to disagree about, so you have taken it upon yourself to attempt a revision of my opinions and posting history for your own personal reasons. I wonder why this is so? You evidently hold a differing opinion with regards to the future of this economy than I do. However you wont state the specifics which drive your opinion that there is to be some sort of financial meltdown in the very near future, and have resorted to ranting, straw man arguments, and lashing out with petty insults rather than answer the question: What specifically do you think will cause this meltdown, and specifically when do you see it happening? It's one thing to shout about what you want to happen, it's another to take a reasoned and rational call about the direction of the market. Care to state what will happen this year in your opinion, and why, or would you prefer to continue to avoid the question and resort to playground polotics?
  15. There was nothing wrong with the first two years of Gordon Browns economic management of the UK, far from bad he was actually quite good. The problem is he followed the tory spending plan, drawn up by a man who would have been chancelor for a long period had labour lost that election all those years ago. The remainder of his time at the treasury has been typical labour tax and waste. Any responsible government would look to use technology and training to ensure they spent less money for the same results as their predecessors, and then once taxes were at a sustainable level they would think about the use of further efficiency gains to fund their pet projects. Trouble is none of the three main parties have sensible or sustainable economic policies..... One of the many reasons why emigration from England by English people is rising very very rapidly.
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