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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. Where are you getting this info from? The private rental market occupied about 10% total market share in 1990 and it's about 12% today. So not much change.
  2. Rents don't logically mirror purchase prices. Look at any historical data for rents and house prices (in either real or nominal terms ) and no way are they mirrored. Rents went UP along with wage inflation during 1989 to 1991 and house prices went down. In the huge recession of 1981 house prices fell in real terms but rents didn't. This was despite the worst recession since WW2 and unemployment rocketting to 3 million. When viewed in nominal terms rents went up around 20% yoy in 1981. This may be true in some inner city areas (flats becoming cheaper to rent due to oversupply) but this is not the case nationwide.
  3. If it really was Kirstie Allsopp then one would presume she would spell her own name correctly good grief...
  4. It sounds like they allowed you several warnings (which you ignored) The entry is about Kirsty Allsopp. It isn't about discussing the content of any programmes she presents. Maybe you should have added your views to the "Location Location Location" entry on wikipedia instead.
  5. What you are saying makes sense but it isn't the way the market works. In the real world, house prices are heavily dependent on monthly affordability (and the state of the economy and relative unemployment levels), not the fact that it has to be paid back over xx years. Monthly affordability is dependent on mortgage rates. Employment levels are dependent on lots of things but are obviously adversly affected by a recession. If monetary policy sticks with inflation targetting and inflation is held reasonably low then I can't see how house prices can fall back to 3 times earnings in the forseeable future because interest rates won't be returning to high levels for some time and I don't see a return to the high levels of unemployment seen in the 80s and early 90s. Nor do I see the population declining significantly in the near future. Sure, no one can say rates won't go back to double digits one day causing your graph to spike down to 3 times single earnings but there is nothing to suggest when this will happen, especially if the inflation targetting experiment of the last 15 years chugs along for a few more years. Look at the interest rate chart on page 2 of this link and you can see why 3x single salary is unlikely to reappear for quite some time. As you know, inflation targetting began after we left the ERM in late 1992 and you can see the change in rates since that date. It looks very different to the peaks and dips of the 70s and 80s. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/rates/baserate.pdf As for rents, I still expect them to roughly follow wage inflation and this usually means a steady rise in rents in nominal terms.
  6. But it makes sense to use household income as the measure (for mortgage lending). Household income should have always been used as the measure although several decades ago it probably made little difference because fewer households had more than one (significant) wage earner. Your graph is misleading as it doesn't take into account the cost of borrowing or the changes in the mortgage market over the last 40 years or the changes in monetary policy since the 1970s and 1980s (inflation targetting). If you cropped your graph at 2001 could it have predicted the trend in house prices over the following 7 years? (answer: NO, and maybe that's why you have been calling the market so wrong since 2001)
  7. Your 1.2 was faulty then. A Clio Williams would be lucky to see 45mpg at 56mph and 35mpg at 75mph? A Clio 1.2 at 56mph would do maybe 60mpg. Also, your reasoning about engine size and power and revs is rubbish Cruising at a steady 56mph both engines will be producing a similar power output. The Williams engine will need slightly more work rate because the car is heavier and has fatter tyres. The smaller engine will be designed for economy and can pump and combust the required volume of air/fuel mix very efficiently. It will still only be pumping air and fuel at a fraction of capacity when cruising at 56mph so where is the advantage of the bigger engine? The big sporty Williams engine is not designed for economy and needs to pump more air/fuel to overcome higher transmission losses for the same roadspeed so it will be way less economical.
  8. think of lovely scent and cologne and flowers and trees and lakes... the sun is shining....
  9. The Bulls Are Pissing Themselves Laughing! It's an ADVERT. You are all creaming yourselves over an ADVERT for HOME/LIFE/LOAN INSURANCE.
  10. FFS it's just a 'scaremonger' article aimed at making people panic into buying insurance... i.e. a thinly veiled advert.... read it again, RB Can't anyone else see this?
  11. 50% falls in a year..... FFS Like RICS are going to quote stats like that. it's obviously posted on functionpix by an attention seeking loony/wannabe. It does show that if you tell your subjects what they want to hear they will often accept it and throw reason out of the window.
  12. This is a website about the housing market. Something you clearly know very little about. You've called the market wrong for years and yet you still act the pompous arrogant buffoon. You can laugh at me for giving out good advice in early 2006 (something else you can only dream about) but I'm not the one who STRd in 2002 and tried to talk the market down for 6 years against all the evidence of a stable economy with stable growth, low inflation and low rates and low unemployment. That was your MO
  13. Obviously I'm not saying they are the same, I'm just drawing a loose comparison in that both schemes attempt to raise capital (through monthly investment) for outright house purchase 25 years down the line. But that is what happened during the last two recessions. Rents went UP. They went up a LOT in nominal terms.
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