The Bounce Is Here!

[trouserjazz]

Nothing was selling around my area for at least 18 months- I thought the end was nigh. It still may be ( although the CPI isn't promising is it!!).

Unitl recently I would have posted very similar to you, that property was sticking, but the last two weeks in mid cornwall around the south coast they seem to be selling very quickly.

It amazes me how quickly you can come up against people on this forum.

My observations are just that- i'm not a troll either just discussing what I see.

not sure I buy this, just seems like a bit of a clumsy troll...if what you say is true then why when looking through your post history have you constantly been saying similarly bullish things? i.e:

Posted on: Feb 15 2005, 12:55 PM

Unfortunatley, there appears to be a flourish of activity occuring in my area.

No less than 6 sold signs spotted this morning.

However, 2 were recently reduced to quite reasonable prices.

Also noticed a few people in the estate agents which has been unheard of as of late.

Hoping of no spring bounce.

Posted on: Feb 21 2005, 01:15 PM

Without a doubt in my area it sure as hell looks like a spring bounce is happening.

Properties are selling all over and I can't believe it!

furthermore, this last week has seen the pace quickening. sh*t.

Posted on: Nov 1 2005, 02:32 PM

I was very bearish and had many debates (ARGUEMENTS) with family members and friends. However, I firmly believe (I think) that the uk will not experience a housing crash untill the BoE raises those rates.

CANNOT BELIEVE I HAVE POSTED A BULL ARGUEMENT

Posted on: Jan 22 2006, 03:45 PM

Iv'e waited long enough and althoguh it goes against the hpc way, we are now going to buy. Had to move out of last rental property (they wanted it back to live in). I feel there is no security in renting. you can only wait so long befor eyou spend too much rent eh? (knock me down! Make me see sense!) It is just lucky i'm not first time buyer eh!

---------------

If nothing has been selling in your area for the past 18 months then why have you been saying it has for the past 14 months???

[Firangi]

not sure I buy this, just seems like a bit of a clumsy troll...if what you say is true then why when looking through your post history have you constantly been saying similarly bullish things? i.e:

Posted on: Feb 15 2005, 12:55 PM

Unfortunatley, there appears to be a flourish of activity occuring in my area.

No less than 6 sold signs spotted this morning.

However, 2 were recently reduced to quite reasonable prices.

Also noticed a few people in the estate agents which has been unheard of as of late.

Hoping of no spring bounce.

Posted on: Feb 21 2005, 01:15 PM

Without a doubt in my area it sure as hell looks like a spring bounce is happening.

Properties are selling all over and I can't believe it!

furthermore, this last week has seen the pace quickening. sh*t.

Posted on: Nov 1 2005, 02:32 PM

I was very bearish and had many debates (ARGUEMENTS) with family members and friends. However, I firmly believe (I think) that the uk will not experience a housing crash untill the BoE raises those rates.

CANNOT BELIEVE I HAVE POSTED A BULL ARGUEMENT

Posted on: Jan 22 2006, 03:45 PM

Iv'e waited long enough and althoguh it goes against the hpc way, we are now going to buy. Had to move out of last rental property (they wanted it back to live in). I feel there is no security in renting. you can only wait so long befor eyou spend too much rent eh? (knock me down! Make me see sense!) It is just lucky i'm not first time buyer eh!

---------------

If nothing has been selling in your area for the past 18 months then why have you been saying it has for the past 14 months???

it looks like he has been c'n'ping from his previous posts at regular interval and still claiming he had been bearish until 2 weeks ago.

[shar46y]

We started flathunting this week, not sure what came over us but mainly it was curiousity - a very interesting and rather depressing experience. We are looking at the Harringay area (north London) and most agents had hardly anything to show us. We'd expected there would be lots of flats available from looking on Rightmove etc, but turns out that almost everything we'd seen went Under Offer within days.

One property (Harringay Ladder) had just been put on the agent's website in the morning, by that evening it had had 8 viewings. The agent took us round in batches. One guy in our group was a young, slick, suited, shiny mobile phone type - we guessed a BTL wannabe.

Another agent looked amazed when we said we were looking to buy a place to live and said "most people who buy in this area are investors looking to rent"!

Looks like the "Spring Bounce" has hit the London BTL market, which is very annoying as these are exactly the same properties that we would like to live in :angry:

[DonnieDarker]

One property (Harringay Ladder) had just been put on the agent's website in the morning, by that evening it had had 8 viewings. The agent took us round in batches. One guy in our group was a young, slick, suited, shiny mobile phone type - we guessed a BTL wannabe.

Ah. Wood Green...recently hyped by TimeOut magazine.

This is depressing news but hardly surprising. Such areas are some of the only places regular FTBs are get on the 'ladder/treadmill/elevator' and when you combine that with the Easter break you get wild activity.

Were the people in your group young Asians/Turks? A lot of these guys and gals live at home with their parents and start their BTL empires that way...

[shar46y]

Ah. Wood Green...recently hyped by TimeOut magazine.

This is depressing news but hardly surprising. Such areas are some of the only places regular FTBs are get on the 'ladder/treadmill/elevator' and when you combine that with the Easter break you get wild activity.

Were the people in your group young Asians/Turks? A lot of these guys and gals live at home with their parents and start their BTL empires that way...

The slick kid definitely did look Asian.

I was really annoyed when TimeOut marked out Wood Green as the new hotspot, we have been planning to move there for ages and were just biding our time. On the bright side, the recent Rightmove report said that asking prices in Haringey were down 2%.

[DonnieDarker]

The slick kid definitely did look Asian.

I was really annoyed when TimeOut marked out Wood Green as the new hotspot, we have been planning to move there for ages and were just biding our time. On the bright side, the recent Rightmove report said that asking prices in Haringey were down 2%.

TimeOut riled me so much about this I wrote to the editor. Sadly not publiished in the letters page.

Best of luck...

[CrashIsUnderWay]

>yawn<

er... AWOOOOOOOGA

[OZZIE]

not sure I buy this, just seems like a bit of a clumsy troll...if what you say is true then why when looking through your post history have you constantly been saying similarly bullish things? i.e:

Posted on: Feb 15 2005, 12:55 PM

Unfortunatley, there appears to be a flourish of activity occuring in my area.

No less than 6 sold signs spotted this morning.

However, 2 were recently reduced to quite reasonable prices.

Also noticed a few people in the estate agents which has been unheard of as of late.

Hoping of no spring bounce.

worry when I see sold signs and post

Posted on: Feb 21 2005, 01:15 PM

Without a doubt in my area it sure as hell looks like a spring bounce is happening.

Properties are selling all over and I can't believe it!

furthermore, this last week has seen the pace quickening. sh*t.

Posted on: Nov 1 2005, 02:32 PM

I was very bearish and had many debates (ARGUEMENTS) with family members and friends. However, I firmly believe (I think) that the uk will not experience a housing crash untill the BoE raises those rates.

CANNOT BELIEVE I HAVE POSTED A BULL ARGUEMENT

Still my view is consistent I have said this today. No mention of property selling though!

Posted on: Jan 22 2006, 03:45 PM

Iv'e waited long enough and althoguh it goes against the hpc way, we are now going to buy. Had to move out of last rental property (they wanted it back to live in). I feel there is no security in renting. you can only wait so long befor eyou spend too much rent eh? (knock me down! Make me see sense!) It is just lucky i'm not first time buyer eh!

(2006 yes I am buying and i found a house got 20% reduction and a good loan deal)

---------------

If nothing has been selling in your area for the past 18 months then why have you been saying it has for the past 14 months???

I have not said all property was selling.

Perhaps when I see property selling I post on this forum. Simple as, did not like what I saw and came to this site to report it and maybe convince myself all would be ok. After all I have been renting and hoping since June 2004 and visiting this site since april (approx) 2004. (I'm sure you will check, although i was god forbid a lurker for quite sometime)

In hindsight, I can say that not much did sell over the last 18 months. As i have hear on this site and quite rightly people always need somewehere to live thus property will always sell regardless.

I'm not hear for approval and I don't particularly care if you call me a troll. However, why is not concievable that in some areas of the country property might have begun shifting again.

Christ, do you think my post is going to cause property mania uk wide? Im sure the spring bounce I am witnessing will be shortlived. PLEASE read original post.

I got 20% off 10 year loan at 4.67 and the time is right for me to buy. What the hell is wrong with that?

[shar46y]

>yawn<

er... AWOOOOOOOGA

What, to me? I feel quite flattered.

I didn't say I was going to jump on the ladder because it's all going great, etc. We just signed up with a bunch of agents because we were curious, it doesn't change my belief that property is overvalued and overdue a big correction. Like I said above, I was depressed by the experience more than anything.

[MrB]

Can I address it? There's two things that bother me about these "facts":

1) A 10-year fix at 4.67% is actually 20bps lower than mortgage lenders can fund at in today's market (before even taking credit risk into account);

2) More importantly, if the market is so hot then how comes sellers are willing to accept 20% below asking?

I'm calling shenanigans!

Yeah, point 2 is a very good question. It just doesn't add up.

Point one was a pretty good point too. Long term rates have been inching up for almost a year. Lenders are going for market share at the expense of margins and completely ignoring credit risk. Nationwide have even changed their lending criteria (so much for credit tightening!).

This is the last hurah of the great house price bubble, hope it doesn't last too long. Could you imagine what would happen if lenders hauled in these insane deals, the recent buyers would be left high and dry, with nobody able to afford to pay what they paid themselves.

[goldmercury]

to the original poster,

where did you get a 10 year fixed at under 5%?

[MrB]

to the original poster,

where did you get a 10 year fixed at under 5%?

Woolwich. I think there are a few others too.

http://www.barclays.co.uk/woolwichmortgages/fixed_rates.htm

[BufferBear Bitcoin Bull]

When the last bear turns bull......................................

[Shamus]

Point one was a pretty good point too. Long term rates have been inching up for almost a year. Lenders are going for market share at the expense of margins and completely ignoring credit risk. Nationwide have even changed their lending criteria (so much for credit tightening!).

This is the last hurah of the great house price bubble, hope it doesn't last too long. Could you imagine what would happen if lenders hauled in these insane deals, the recent buyers would be left high and dry, with nobody able to afford to pay what they paid themselves.

Total madness...

On joint earnings Nationwide reckon they would lend up to £236k. This is around £100k more than should be based on joint earnings. God forbid any young couple going for a deal like this and then losing an income due to having children. Repayments would be £1363 per month for the first 10 years. Better pay it down in those years in case rates are significantly more in the next 15 years!

[right_freds_dead]

bah

[OZZIE]

When the last bear turns bull......................................

I am not turning bull.

I just got a good reduction and a good loan rate and I don't like the insecurity that I have experienced whilst renting with my family.

Again I state that there has been a spring bounce in my local areas of nottinghamshire, parts of Derbyshire and parts of Cornwall.

Things have picked up. For how long Who knows? not long IMOPO

[MRSB]

More ANECDOTAL evidence.

The property we are currently renting was for sale last year they have reduced it 10 % and we have had 4 couples and one wannabe 20 year old BTL view it.

Im sorry everyone but around my area up north and my home town in Cornwall the buyers are back.

I'm sorry if some posters do not like my observations- I dont like them either.

So everyone who makes an appointment to view a house actually wants to buy? What about all the people who simply like to nose about and get an idea of what they may get for the money? There are plenty of these. Ok, so some places that you are aware of are having a few viewings - so what? And how do you know for for definate...via the Estate Agent or the vendor themselves?? How truthful would either of these sources be....

As regards houses selling like hotcakes, how do you know they are actually SOLD? Are you looking at the boards outside or are the EA's telling you? Or are they appearing on Nethouseprices or a similar site, so you KNOW for definate they are actually SOLD. These day's boards mean nothing, the word of an EA means nothing (never has really).

Sorry, can't understand the panic.

[Flat Bear]

Unfortunately ( ), my observations around the Eats Midlands and Cornwall are that houses are selling like hotcakes and I mean selling fast!

My mother in law has been on the markey 2 years- sold for asking price yesterday.

Friends council house sold over inflted obsurd price in 2 days.

The madness is back and im afraid that, IMO, the only thing to stop this monster is a rise in rates.

I STR in June 2004 and this felt right during the slowdown, however, our nextdoor neighbours sold their identical house at the end of march 2006 for 20000 more.

I cannot wait any longer and am now buying after managing to grab a 10 year at 4.67% and a 20% reduction of the askign price. (Cant deal with the insecurity of renting anymore- had to move twice already in 2 years. not good for the family).

I can add however, that after goign home recently to cornwall and seeing many friends i am still amazed by thier disregard of any risks. They are obssessed with houses. The IO was talked of on many occassions.

Iv'e learn't now just smile and agree its the only way. there are still wannabe btletters out there and i just pray that those rates rise and bring some normality back, but God Help some of my freinds when they do.

Although buying I remain a bear.

Yes we do seem to be in a"bounce", "suckers rally", "Dead cat bounce" situation and although not really very convincing (but you seem convinced) is reasonably strong with quite a few "sticky" properties selling and generally more activety. With luck it will be long enough for (if I can persuade her) my girlfreind to sell a recently inherited house. As ive already mentioned on another thread, this wont last too long.

Note:

Mortgages activety has gone up quite rapidly (thus the activety) but house prices arent. So that property is generally getting more highly leveraged. (people are getting into debt with less equity) This is worrying

Edited April 21, 2006 by Flat Bear

[OZZIE]

So everyone who makes an appointment to view a house actually wants to buy? What about all the people who simply like to nose about and get an idea of what they may get for the money? There are plenty of these. Ok, so some places that you are aware of are having a few viewings - so what? And how do you know for for definate...via the Estate Agent or the vendor themselves?? How truthful would either of these sources be....

As regards houses selling like hotcakes, how do you know they are actually SOLD? Are you looking at the boards outside or are the EA's telling you? Or are they appearing on Nethouseprices or a similar site, so you KNOW for definate they are actually SOLD. These day's boards mean nothing, the word of an EA means nothing (never has really).

Sorry, can't understand the panic.

I think this thread had developed in a way that was not intended. No I am not panicking, posters on here seem to panick if anyone is bullish. My posts were never intended to be bullish, I am just stating what I see im my area.

No your right a few viewing s of course do not suggests things are selling. Original post stated that i am buying now. I have freinds in Cornwall who sold there overpriced council house in two days. As I drove home many of the signs that had been for sale for ages were sstc. Yes it is true these could be estate agents (I very much doubt this thoery suggessted on this forum, too many to all be fake). I have friends in EIRE they recently sold and are moving back to Cornwall.

My M-I-L house has sold after being on he market for 2 years, my old next door neigbours have sold their house 20,000 more than what we did (we sold in june 2004, yes identical house ours was better actually).

All i have cliamed is that a spring bounce in my areas is underway. This coudl be over already it might not.

As I stated many people I know are ready to spend, IO all the way. Its not right, its not fair and I hope they dont get hurt too much.

As for me 20% reduction, 4.67% loan, LTV 2.89%, employed at present. My STR days are over. (If it all goes through smoothly)

In retropspect what I have learn't from this thread is:-

1. Many of fthe bulls are right on here when they state that 'bull anectodote is mere twiddle whereas bear is fact'.

2. Posters are to quick to argue with and ridcule users with whom views differ from there own.

[Ethel]

Posters are to quick to argue with and ridcule users with whom views differ from there own.

I only ridicule people who can't spell their.

[shar46y]

In retropspect what I have learn't from this thread is:-

1. Many of fthe bulls are right on here when they state that 'bull anectodote is mere twiddle whereas bear is fact'.

2. Posters are to quick to argue with and ridcule users with whom views differ from there own.

I posted my experience this week in North London upthread, not because I am a bull, but rather because I am somewhat disappointed and depressed. The market hardly moved in London over the past 2 years, and now looks like it's picking up again - I hasten to add, I still think property is insanely overvalued - I really can't understand who is still buying at these crazy prices.

Incidentally, we put in an offer on a flat 10% below the asking price and the agent practically laughed in our faces, or he would have done if it had been in person instead of over the phone. I shut him up by telling him that we looked on Nethouseprices before deciding on a fair figure. Anyway, he reluctantly agreed to pass on the offer (since he is legally required to) and it has now been rejected. Clearly, vendors in North London now expect to achieve near asking price.

In self defence, I should probably explain that we had fully expected our offer to be rejected, after seeing the craziness going on. We figured we couldn't lose because if the offer was accepted, it was a decent figure that we could easily manage on one salary. Hopefully, our offer was at least a wake-up call to the vendor that they might have to accept less than they want.

[OZZIE]

I only ridicule people who can't spell their.

This is still not a literature exercise and I apologise for my haste and consequent spelling errors.

Furthermore, for any reason should people be ridculed!

[OZZIE]

Just heard that our ex nextdoor neighbours have been gazumped on the property they are buying!

[Spoony]

Worrying thread, this one. You are are panic buying after doing a STR in 2004. I STR in 2002!

I'm still in it because I'm convinced this insanity has to end, though there will have to be one almighty crash to bring the prices significantly below 2002 prices.

I'll give you some anecdotal evidence. Theres a house across the road from me that went on to the market and a sold sign appeared within 4 days. Three weeks later and the FOR SALE sign is back. Theres somone at work who can't sell their house and keeps dropping the price to shift it. Admittedly I am in a place that has sentiment ripplling out of London.

Edited April 21, 2006 by Spoony

[OZZIE]

Worrying thread, this one. You are are panic buying after doing a STR in 2004. I STR in 2002!

I'm still in it because I'm convinced this insanity has to end, though there will have to be one almighty crash to bring the prices significantly below 2002 prices.

I'll give you some anecdotal evidence. Theres a house across the road from me that went on to the market and a sold sign appeared within 4 days. Three weeks later and the FOR SALE sign is back. Theres somone at work who can't sell their house and keeps dropping the price to shift it. Admittedly I am in a place that has sentiment ripplling out of London.

Im not panic buying at all just need a house to live in. I need security for my family. In two years we are now in our third rented property.

Got a good deal 20% reduction and 10 year 4.67 loan. I cant see the problem. ive not overstreched on income multiples (2.89% joint).

If i wait any longer i will soon be loosing money, spent a fortune in rent. It appears that prices dropped for a time and have now stabilised.

They have to crash at some point without a doubt, i just cannot be bothered or seee the beneifts of waiting any longer.

Off course if we lose our jobs in the forthcoming depression then there might be trouble!