When are sellers going to get real and knock off the COVID premium (30%)?

[Housepricecrash91]

I'm not sure we'll see the covid premium come off in nominal terms, but in real terms it's possible... Supply is a massive issue, and you only need one buyer...

I know a few people (including friends) who are currently signing up to £400k mortgages with £1.9k-£2k monthly repayments... just to own the semi detached home they always wanted.

[Stewy]

7 minutes ago, Housepricecrash91 said:

I'm not sure we'll see the covid premium come off in nominal terms, but in real terms it's possible... Supply is a massive issue, and you only need one buyer...

I know a few people (including friends) who are currently signing up to £400k mortgages with £1.9k-£2k monthly repayments... just to own the semi detached home they always wanted.

£2k per month is now sounding pretty cheap since wages have rocketed. Even minimum wage pays something like that.

Food and energy have crashed in price too versus wages.

I expect the HPI Plateau has few days left. 

[Huggy]

17 minutes ago, Housepricecrash91 said:

I'm not sure we'll see the covid premium come off in nominal terms, but in real terms it's possible... Supply is a massive issue, and you only need one buyer...

I know a few people (including friends) who are currently signing up to £400k mortgages with £1.9k-£2k monthly repayments... just to own the semi detached home they always wanted.

#ho-moaner #ladder

[scottbeard]

3 hours ago, sell2rent said:

I have seen a good 2009 new build house go for 86% of its 2009 purchase price, but so far it is an outlier and they overpaid. Stuff that sold here in the pandemic is back on but apart from those with issues is still at least 10% more on asking price. It would be good if the nominal prices overall got back to 2019 but the real prices and rental yield compared to interest rates matter more to me.

Is 2009 a typo for 2019 here?

[BobWeaver]

23 hours ago, Stewy said:

I don't think this will erode.

Bank of Boomer funds are still sloshing about, and since living is so very cheap, the only place it will go is into HPI for their children, nephews and nieces. 

 

Bank of boomer funds? They haven't suddenly got a huge cash boost, they have the same amount as always so that doesn't work as a point 

 

Cost of living being so cheap isn't right either as the cost of living has rose a huge amount, it was far cheaper to live in years gone by and house prices were far cheaper so that isn't a legitimate reason either 

[MerchantNavy]

On 3/30/2024 at 2:29 PM, burk said:

From experience last year I was blown away with some of the $hittier properties i looked at how stubborn the sellers were. 

 I'm fascinated by the psychology/sentiment of the mkt at present and what I see as absolute denial on the part of sellers........

I don't get the terraced houses, without driveways, asking for semi-detached prices or detached prices only because they have refurbed the kitchen and bathroom.

6 hours ago, Stewy said:

£2k per month is now sounding pretty cheap since wages have rocketed. Even minimum wage pays something like that.

Food and energy have crashed in price too versus wages.

I expect the HPI Plateau has few days left. 

No Stewy, you cannot afford that on minimum wage.

[Flopsy]

Houses aren't selling in my 3br Rightmove saved list (Bucks and Beds). Some are back on the market after being 'under offer' previously. Others just disappear unsold. Oddly if I look at the more expensive larger homes and cheaper flats then there are sales which will make reporting stats difficult.

Until death, divorce or landlord selling up forces sales and for these new prices to  filter through to LR then other sellers will not drop their prices. We have too many similar houses on the market and currently very few people willing to buy them at today's price.

[Fromage Frais]

1 hour ago, Flopsy said:

Houses aren't selling in my 3br Rightmove saved list (Bucks and Beds). Some are back on the market after being 'under offer' previously. Others just disappear unsold. Oddly if I look at the more expensive larger homes and cheaper flats then there are sales which will make reporting stats difficult.

Until death, divorce or landlord selling up forces sales and for these new prices to  filter through to LR then other sellers will not drop their prices. We have too many similar houses on the market and currently very few people willing to buy them at today's price.

Same for most places I have seen also.

If people do not transact then fair enough the prices do not fall.  But that would cause a recession in that industry as it needs volume.

No moves = less tax, less renovations, less loans, less bonuses, less estate agency fees, less loan fees, less sot furnishings sold, less white goods sold etc etc.

That in itself damages the market participants the whole thing looks like a slow moving car crash with them all waiting, starving to death waiting for interest rate cuts..

As posted a week ago a relative has bought a bungalow in North Norfolk for under 400k ish (probate).  There is a smaller plotted one for over 500k opposite and an ugly small house a few doors up for over 600k.  NUTS

 

[burk]

2 hours ago, MerchantNavy said:

I don't get the terraced houses, without driveways, asking for semi-detached prices or detached prices only because they have refurbed the kitchen and bathroom.

It's incredible isn't it? The phrase that puzzles me at the moment when looking on RM is, "the property benefits of a refitted kitchen" @#!?! What?

Also what is a 'full' refurbishment as described by most agents?

From what I see it's new carpets in some rooms, I guess when the smell of pet/human pi$$ is too strong to disguise and the very 1980's kitchen that's been daubed in grey paint along with new tiles on the wall of the 1970's bathroom to make it all 'modern'

 

2 hours ago, MerchantNavy said:

1 hour ago, Flopsy said:

Houses aren't selling in my 3br Rightmove saved list (Bucks and Beds). Some are back on the market after being 'under offer' previously. Others just disappear unsold. Oddly if I look at the more expensive larger homes and cheaper flats then there are sales which will make reporting stats difficult.

Until death, divorce or landlord selling up forces sales and for these new prices to  filter through to LR then other sellers will not drop their prices. We have too many similar houses on the market and currently very few people willing to buy them at today's price.

 

Yep, I was asking about this a couple of months back on another thread, when a couple of dozen properties on my many RM lists had all been taken 'off the mkt'. As I didn't know what it meant, whether it had sold or was removed for other reasons.

Low and behold this very last week about half of them have reappeared at the same price with a different agent. I guess it's a case of who blinks first as to what gets the mkt moving.

[sell2rent]

5 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Is 2009 a typo for 2019 here?

No. 

Melview	Ballaragh Road		Lonan	IM4 7PH	Lonan	1,850,000.00	1,850,000.00	21/07/2009
Melview	Ballaragh Road		Lonan	IM4 7PH	Lonan	1,600,000.00	1,600,000.00	06/03/2023

[scottbeard]

2 hours ago, sell2rent said:

No. 

Melview	Ballaragh Road		Lonan	IM4 7PH	Lonan	1,850,000.00	1,850,000.00	21/07/2009
Melview	Ballaragh Road		Lonan	IM4 7PH	Lonan	1,600,000.00	1,600,000.00	06/03/2023

Oh OK on the Isle of Man Google tells me!

fair enough though how much that is relevant to most places in the U.K. U.K. not sure 

[ToughEgg]

How is IOM property in general doing since Covid? I would have thought the banking/gambling sector plus a lot of immigration were still keeping things high?

[sell2rent]

1 hour ago, ToughEgg said:

How is IOM property in general doing since Covid? I would have thought the banking/gambling sector plus a lot of immigration were still keeping things high?

The population has barely changed but we meet a lot of other new immigrants from all over (noticeably less of an EU share, more varied) in those industries and new retirees. Low birth rate, many young Manx leave, housing is expensive. The estate agents talk a good game and stuff under £800k is shifting OK with a claimed shortage but also many empty properties without forced sellers. Some of the empty housing stock looks rather drab and the wet winters get to them quickly and ferociously. £1m- range is dead. I don't know why that is as the tax savings really kick in higher up as the highest income tax rate is 20%, rising imminently to 22%, but there is no capital gains tax, no corporation tax for most SME, no inheritance tax, property taxes are cheap, the infrastructure is not bad at all, a high quality of life with negligible crime if you like islands and don't mind Irish sea winter weather. Some perceive the finance industry to have been relocating elsewhere and to be in decline, I gather there were also some houses bought unseen during COVID when buying a house was one of the exceptions through the closed borders and hope to snap one of those up at fair value.

Was comparing notes with some other migrants yesterday and comparing the locations as a Brit you can go to have reasonable taxes, apart from language issues:

Andorra - in a dark valley

Monaco - expensive

Jersey/Guernsey - small, expensive, entry criteria

Switzerland - legalistic, expensive, entry criteria

 

There are a variety of other jurisdictions with programmes at various times, including ones with high normal tax rates like Portugal and Italy.

 

We found that the Isle of the Man was easy for Brits, very similar culture/landscape to UK in many ways, very welcoming. Not without its problems. I've normalised the idea of prices being double what they were in Scotland (similar to a lot of the South of England ex London), but don't want to overpay and given the time some houses take to sell, don't want to be trapped later.

Edited April 1 by sell2rent

[ToughEgg]

Appreciate the very insightful reply. Yes it’s a very unique place and as you say significant tax advantages. But I would worry cabin fever could and probably would set in during the winter unless you were pretty self reliant, what with the horizontal rain etc.

Re low tax options, Monaco prices are mental, we’re talking 1m for a studio -read bedsit- but I guess you could consider Cyprus, UAE and Panama if you wanted a sunnier place (for shady people) than IOM. Channel Islands nice but I think want income of £750k for residency.

I heard building and maintenance costs are very high on IOM, is that a factor bearing on prices, because with the weather there is going to be a lot of external maintenance?

By the way, I don’t know how wealthy tax exiles would even be able to spend their money there though- do they really spend 183days a year there, or does no one check up??

Edited April 1 by ToughEgg

[sell2rent]

55 minutes ago, ToughEgg said:

Appreciate the very insightful reply. Yes it’s a very unique place and as you say significant tax advantages. But I would worry cabin fever could and probably would set in during the winter unless you were pretty self reliant, what with the horizontal rain etc.

Re low tax options, Monaco prices are mental, we’re talking 1m for a studio -read bedsit- but I guess you could consider Cyprus, UAE and Panama if you wanted a sunnier place (for shady people) than IOM. Channel Islands nice but I think want income of £750k for residency.

I heard building and maintenance costs are very high on IOM, is that a factor bearing on prices, because with the weather there is going to be a lot of external maintenance?

By the way, I don’t know how wealthy tax exiles would even be able to spend their money there though- do they really spend 183days a year there, or does no one check up??

Yes island location as well makes building and maintenance expensive. Argument for renting or buying somewhere that is not a project.

This winter was miserable and we moved (rented) house and started a new business so were busy and did not travel much. Hope to put that right next winter but I love the TT and the summers here. Plenty to do if you like the outdoors, surprisingly good restaurants and decent but not London entertainment, and a simple, quiet life, being self reliant. Weather permitting it is easy to travel and I fit the weather and culture here so am happy. The safety aspect is huge for many here, some “interesting” stories from alternatives.

Edited April 1 by sell2rent

[ToughEgg]

1 hour ago, sell2rent said:

Yes island location as well makes building and maintenance expensive. Argument for renting or buying somewhere that is not a project.

This winter was miserable and we moved (rented) house and started a new business so were busy and did not travel much. Hope to put that right next winter but I love the TT and the summers here. Plenty to do if you like the outdoors, surprisingly good restaurants and decent but not London entertainment, and a simple, quiet life, being self reliant. Weather permitting it is easy to travel and I fit the weather and culture here so am happy. The safety aspect is huge for many here, some “interesting” stories from alternatives.

Thanks, very useful info! Good luck with finding something suitable to buy and will follow your progress with interest. Housing stock doesn’t look the most attractive there from what I can see, but I saw they published a Pevsner IOM guide last year so there must be some nice places.

[sell2rent]

1 hour ago, ToughEgg said:

Thanks, very useful info! Good luck with finding something suitable to buy and will follow your progress with interest. Housing stock doesn’t look the most attractive there from what I can see, but I saw they published a Pevsner IOM guide last year so there must be some nice places.

Thanks!

[Aidan Ap Word]

On 31/03/2024 at 10:07, Stewy said:

£2k per month is now sounding pretty cheap since wages have rocketed. Even minimum wage pays something like that.

Food and energy have crashed in price too versus wages.

I expect the HPI Plateau has few days left. 

Stewy - you are showing a horrible attitude to others and a really weak understanding of reality.

Someone wortking 40 hours per week at 10 GBP per hour is being paid circa 1800 GBP per month (at 4.5 weeks per month).

So their income wouldn't cover 2k GBP if they spent every single penny on the mortgage.

So food and energy prices "crash" (or whatever) is errelevant since they would starve in the 1st month - or, if it is winter, freeze to death.

Never mind: council tax, water bills, or anything else.

Stewy - you are behaving like a sick and insensitive troll.

[scottbeard]

Just now, Aidan Ap Word said:

Stewy - you are behaving like a sick and insensitive troll.

But he's done that since his very first post - just ignore him.  He posts controversial things to get reactions.  Cut them off.