Oz orders subs from Barrow -£100's Bns worth

[kzb]

21 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Back in the real world the big picture is here

  UK trade volumes suffer record five-year decline (ft.com) 

I never mentioned anything like that.  I was simply pointing out that trade relations with Oz seem very much on the up overall, and not just submarines.  Surely you can be pleased about that instead of trying to rubbish everything not connected with the EU ?

If I get time later I'll post something I saw on the doppelganger models, but on the Brexit thread.

[A.steve]

On 21/03/2024 at 13:47, Stewy said:

Who says the economy is under water...

🌱 🌱🌱

Coo... Oz must really like subs from Barrow?  £100bn would be enough for everyone in Australia to be given about 3,700 foot-long delicacies.  The average Australian would need to consume one every day for over a decade...

 

[debtlessmanc]

12 hours ago, A.steve said:

Coo... Oz must really like subs from Barrow?  £100bn would be enough for everyone in Australia to be given about 3,700 foot-long delicacies.  The average Australian would need to consume one every day for over a decade...

 

Subway did seem quite popular over their when we visited, then there is this place we went through

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holbrook,_New_South_Wales

 

[Confusion of VIs]

On 24/03/2024 at 12:40, kzb said:

I never mentioned anything like that.  I was simply pointing out that trade relations with Oz seem very much on the up overall, and not just submarines.  Surely you can be pleased about that instead of trying to rubbish everything not connected with the EU ?

The Australian trade deal was rubbished by the Minister that oversaw its negotiation. He said it was a bad deal that was only concluded because he was instructed to get the best deal he could by a set date so that No 10 could say we had a deal. The farmers protesting in London against the Brexit deals seem to agree with him  

In any case big picture is what counts  and as the FT article says it is not looking good with a record fall in UK trade post Brexit.

On 24/03/2024 at 12:40, kzb said:

If I get time later I'll post something I saw on the doppelganger models, but on the Brexit thread.

IIRC the last time you commented on doppleganger model you very succintcly demonstated that you had no idea what they are, how they are validated and why they negate the impact of global issues.      

[Confusion of VIs]

On 25/03/2024 at 09:01, debtlessmanc said:

Subway did seem quite popular over their when we visited, then there is this place we went through

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holbrook,_New_South_Wales

 

That's a cool way of displaying the sub.

[kzb]

15 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

IIRC the last time you commented on doppleganger model you very succintcly demonstated that you had no idea what they are, how they are validated and why they negate the impact of global issues.      

Have a look at the article I posted on the Brexit thread.

It basically backs up what I said about it.  It is quite implausible that the UK would've outgrown other EU countries by such a huge margin if we'd stayed in.  That's what I said years ago,  and it is what the article says, but the article explains in detail.

[Confusion of VIs]

On 27/03/2024 at 15:19, kzb said:

Have a look at the article I posted on the Brexit thread.

It basically backs up what I said about it.  It is quite implausible that the UK would've outgrown other EU countries by such a huge margin if we'd stayed in.  That's what I said years ago,  and it is what the article says, but the article explains in detail.

I don't bother with the Brexit thread much these days, Brexit is done and dusted. All that is left now is for the UK to decide whether its new position in the world will be a rule taker for the EU or the US. 

I did read the article and it is obvious that like you the author knows little or nothing about the amount of work that goes into producing the models and how they are validated. A quick look into his background reveals that he is just one of the band of climate change denying, renewables/20mph/15 minute city hating, Brexit loving reality deniers.  

It should be telling that all the models, of varying types, produced by numerous different organisations tell a similar story - a loss of somewhere between 4 and 8%. However, you will never move on because you ignore/reject any anything that conflicts with your own preconcieved views and go looking for some schill who will tell you what you want to hear, which unfortunately the internet can always provide.

 

 

 

[Staffsknot]

On 3/27/2024 at 12:09 AM, Confusion of VIs said:

The Australian trade deal was rubbished by the Minister that oversaw its negotiation. He said it was a bad deal that was only concluded because he was instructed to get the best deal he could by a set date so that No 10 could say we had a deal. The farmers protesting in London against the Brexit deals seem to agree with him  

In any case big picture is what counts  and as the FT article says it is not looking good with a record fall in UK trade post Brexit.

IIRC the last time you commented on doppleganger model you very succintcly demonstated that you had no idea what they are, how they are validated and why they negate the impact of global issues.      

The Oz military was very happy with the idea of nuclear subs until they saw the timescales and the hole it left in the defence budget.

I believe one comment is 'did we learn nothing from the Pom ******ing carriers...' - off the record

[kzb]

12 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

I did read the article and it is obvious that like you the author knows little or nothing about the amount of work that goes into producing the models and how they are validated

Well I never said that I did know.  All that I knew was the model is not coming out with common sense results.  Exactly where it is going wrong, I don't need to know, all I need to know is the result and how it compares to the real world.

The idea that, without Brexit, the UK would be storming ahead of all other EU countries, and by a large margin, does not look credible to me.  Far more likely to be where we are, i.e. overall pretty average.

Reading about how they select countries to mix and match for their doppelgangers, another thing I can tell is that selection is bound to have a subjective component.  You can probably make it come out with anything you want by varying the doppelganger mix.  If it was a physics/engineering calculation, all models would come out with the same result, but they don't.

Also, the subject of this thread is not captured in these models.  It was said upthread that we'd have ended up giving way to the French if we were still in the EU.  But out of the EU, we have not, and thereby won some very valuable work.  This kind of thing is not modelled, and there are other areas that are outside models also.

[17 Year Veteran]

The joys of having a budget surplus. 

[Confusion of VIs]

On 04/04/2024 at 12:49, kzb said:

Well I never said that I did know.  All that I knew was the model is not coming out with common sense results.  Exactly where it is going wrong, I don't need to know, all I need to know is the result and how it compares to the real world.

The idea that, without Brexit, the UK would be storming ahead of all other EU countries, and by a large margin, does not look credible to me.  Far more likely to be where we are, i.e. overall pretty average.

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN02784/assets/0f37d7d4-7d00-4b1c-9343-0effd980b0a1.png

Its perfectly credible.

We are not pretty average, we are behind everyone apart from Germany which has the excuse of having to deal a +4% loss of GDP from the loss of access to cheap Russian gas. As the country that suffered the least impact from the Ukraine war we should have been powering ahead. 

 

On 04/04/2024 at 12:49, kzb said:

Reading about how they select countries to mix and match for their doppelgangers, another thing I can tell is that selection is bound to have a subjective component.  You can probably make it come out with anything you want by varying the doppelganger mix.  If it was a physics/engineering calculation, all models would come out with the same result, but they don't.

You clearly have not much experience of  Physics or enginerring, lots of complimentary/conflicting models exist in both.

On 04/04/2024 at 12:49, kzb said:

Also, the subject of this thread is not captured in these models.  It was said upthread that we'd have ended up giving way to the French if we were still in the EU.  But out of the EU, we have not, and thereby won some very valuable work.  This kind of thing is not modelled, and there are other areas that are outside models also.

Basing your views on a completely unevidenced and pretty implausible claim made up by an internet random, just because it fits with what you want to believe is why you never move on.    

 

 

[Si1]

10 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

. 

 

You clearly have not much experience of  Physics or enginerring, lots of complimentary/conflicting models exist in both.

 

This is so utterly true. People say "it's not predictable like science". Well science is of course riven with uncertainty and unknown unknowns.