Why Britain’s house prices will not recover until 2028

[Stewy]

7 minutes ago, PropertyMania said:

You just have to lol at the most liked comment..

 

 

He's right about the immigration. We're not building 1m new homes per year are we? 

[SickOfWaiting]

16 minutes ago, 70PC said:

"Property values will fall 9.4pc from their peak last year"

Have Oxford Economics changed their minds? I thought their number was 9.289316pc

Theyve been persistently wrong by calling for a HPC, as those such as myself have.

[SickOfWaiting]

9 minutes ago, PropertyMania said:

You just have to lol at the most liked comment..

 

 

Then on the next article it'll be comments from the same people that pensioners deserve their inflation adjusted payrise ... then they're breed shouldnt pay IHT as they worked hard for their HPI ..... and then pensioners should also be exempt from SDLT tax etc... They really arent very good at joining up the dots on the DT comments section, as presumably they do realise there isnt a big drawer with all their NI contributions in, as if there was such a drawer it'd have been emptied a long time ago.

Hope some full on lefty group or a Russian buys the worthless rag, and turns it into an extreme version of the Guardian.

 

[SickOfWaiting]

1 hour ago, Stewy said:

The zeal of the convert.

They'd love to be pricing others out thanks to inheriting bank of boomer. 

Nah, id say the priced out generations know better, they have more self awareness!

[PropertyMania]

31 minutes ago, Stewy said:

He's right about the immigration. We're not building 1m new homes per year are we? 

the highest ever net migration is 600,000. if current levels are maintained (unlikely) you're talking about 0.6 people per house to need 1 million. Don't think so pal

[Stewy]

8 hours ago, PropertyMania said:

the highest ever net migration is 600,000. if current levels are maintained (unlikely) you're talking about 0.6 people per house to need 1 million. Don't think so pal

According to the so-called stats..! 

[14stFlyer]

22 hours ago, Stewy said:

Is the population falling? No. 

Without inward net migration, yes, it is.  

[Stewy]

20 minutes ago, 14stFlyer said:

Without inward net migration, yes, it is.  

Newcomers still have to live somewhere bro. 

[regprentice]

13 hours ago, PropertyMania said:

You just have to lol at the most liked comment..

 

 

You know this is almost true already. The uk has 2.4 mn millionaires in a population of 76mn iirc. Most of those people have "wealth" they "own" in excess if 1mn but it's tied up in the value of their home and their defined benefit pension fund.

There was an interesting storyline in Eastenders when dot cotton died - her house on Albert Square was valued at £1mn by hmrc and her grand-daughter was going to lose the house unless she came up with £196k to pay the inheritance tax bill  

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-11679107/EastEnders-fans-left-baffled-Sonia-reveals-price-Dots-home.html

Normally the soaps are pretty unrealistic about house prices and they have kids working in kebab shops and living in a dockside penthouse. In reality everyone under 50 when eastenders started in the 80s would have gradually had to move to zone 6. perhaps thats a spinoff idea for the producers..... "Romford nights"

Edited June 9, 2023 by regprentice

[scottbeard]

14 hours ago, Sackboii said:

I look forward to the results in 6-12 months time with great anticipation. I am sure you have bookmarked this thread already. I’ll give you 15:1 odds in your favour..

After all, I have noticed, you’ve been pretty bang on so far..

Well thanks!  Although if I am being honest interest rates have risen faster than I expected, and house prices have been stickier, but I think we will get there in the end.

15 hours ago, 70PC said:

"Property values will fall 9.4pc from their peak last year"

Have Oxford Economics changed their minds? I thought their number was 9.289316pc

Sigh - these spurious figures are embarrassing aren't they?  I try desperately to explain to @zugzwang and others why I believe Economics is a valuable social science, and then economists seem to do their best to pretend otherwise.  9.4% my arse.  Why not say 5-10%?  Around 10%?  etc 

[regprentice]

13 hours ago, PropertyMania said:

the highest ever net migration is 600,000. if current levels are maintained (unlikely) you're talking about 0.6 people per house to need 1 million. Don't think so pal

We've been building houses slower than weve been importing "talent" for years. theres also a shortage of houses generally and i read a few days ago it would take 4.5 million houses to redress the balance across the UK.

if you start with a deficit of 4.5 million houses, continue to import 600k people net and build 1mn houses a year then it will be 2033 before there are enough houses to meet our current need and the increased need through immigration alone. if migration and house building continue at their current level then that 4.2mn shortfall gets worse by 420,000 houses every single year

For the last two years running we have built almost exactly 420,000 fewer houses than the figure for net migration that year. Rishi Sunak hailed last year as a record breaking year for house building but only built only 173,000 houses in England. link . it seems physically impossible that we could ramp up to 1mn houses a year.

[zugzwang]

12 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Sigh - these spurious figures are embarrassing aren't they?  I try desperately to explain to @zugzwang and others why I believe Economics is a valuable social science, and then economists seem to do their best to pretend otherwise.  9.4% my arse.  Why not say 5-10%?  Around 10%?  etc 

 

There is science in economics (mostly from finance theory) but not much. Certainly not enough to justify the granularity of that forecast!

As I've argued before, some kind of traffic light system would be more honest.

 

 

 

[70PC]

On 6/7/2023 at 8:24 AM, fellow said:

Why Britain’s house prices will not recover until 2028

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/house-prices-will-not-recover-until-2028-fixed-mortgages/

The word recovery in the article says something about prevailing attitudes to property. Houses are a necessity, not shares on the stock market. Do we look forward to price recovery when it comes to buying groceries?      

Prices should be around X times earnings and stay there. A number closer to 4 than the current 9 or 10 would improve economic stability and benefit prospective home owners.

[captainb]

52 minutes ago, regprentice said:

We've been building houses slower than weve been importing "talent" for years. theres also a shortage of houses generally and i read a few days ago it would take 4.5 million houses to redress the balance across the UK.

if you start with a deficit of 4.5 million houses, continue to import 600k people net and build 1mn houses a year then it will be 2033 before there are enough houses to meet our current need and the increased need through immigration alone. if migration and house building continue at their current level then that 4.2mn shortfall gets worse by 420,000 houses every single year

For the last two years running we have built almost exactly 420,000 fewer houses than the figure for net migration that year. Rishi Sunak hailed last year as a record breaking year for house building but only built only 173,000 houses in England. link . it seems physically impossible that we could ramp up to 1mn houses a year.

Also gap between where houses are built (all over) and where migrants typically want to live (cities). Hence Manchester, London etc gone Tonto.

[PropertyMania]

1 hour ago, regprentice said:

We've been building houses slower than weve been importing "talent" for years. theres also a shortage of houses generally and i read a few days ago it would take 4.5 million houses to redress the balance across the UK.

if you start with a deficit of 4.5 million houses, continue to import 600k people net and build 1mn houses a year then it will be 2033 before there are enough houses to meet our current need and the increased need through immigration alone. if migration and house building continue at their current level then that 4.2mn shortfall gets worse by 420,000 houses every single year

For the last two years running we have built almost exactly 420,000 fewer houses than the figure for net migration that year. Rishi Sunak hailed last year as a record breaking year for house building but only built only 173,000 houses in England. link . it seems physically impossible that we could ramp up to 1mn houses a year.

you;re assuming one immigrant per house! the average household is 2.4 and the average immigrant household probably more like 3-4

 

If there is a shortage, where are all the homeless people?

[regprentice]

1 hour ago, PropertyMania said:

you;re assuming one immigrant per house! the average household is 2.4 and the average immigrant household probably more like 3-4

 

If there is a shortage, where are all the homeless people?

Economic migrants tend to be lone male workers, not families. Priti patel recently claimed recently 70% of economic migrants were single males. 

There are growing numbers of homeless people in big cities , homelessness is up 25% in london this year link

The government has filled almost 400 hotels on a semi-permanent basis to house 51,000 asylum seekers - link

To reduce the cost of hotels they are now commissioning 2 boats to house almost 4000 link that link also says that unrelated migrants still housed in hotels will be forced to roomshare , "which will save £250 million a year and could reduce the need to source an additional 90 hotels.". 

Every major city in the country has a rentals crisis - i live outside edinburgh, ive family in Oxford. its virtually impossible to secure a rental in both places and most large cities, particularly university towns, are the same. 

Here in edinburgh one hotel car park has 50 asylum seekers living in cars link

There are 3.3mn migrants in london link and 18% of migrants in london live in overcrowded conditions link- By the definition given that means almost 600,000 live in a single bedroom with more than one couple, or with their children, or with more kids in a room than council housing rules allow.

Slum landlords convert homes into micro bedsits - this 4 bed flat housed 18 peoplelink

Now "Net migration", "Asylum seekers" and "economic migrants" arent interchangable terms. Some of those people in the net migration figures are heart surgeons, some are arrested commiting a serious crime within a day of arriving . The point im making is that it already looks like the UK is bursting at the seams and i genuinely don't see where, with another year with net migration at 600k, those people could possibly go.

[scottbeard]

2 hours ago, PropertyMania said:

you;re assuming one immigrant per house! the average household is 2.4 and the average immigrant household probably more like 3-4

If there is a shortage, where are all the homeless people?

Shortages don't mean that there are homeless people, just that there are people living with parents and in flatshares who want a home of their own.

2 minutes ago, regprentice said:

Economic migrants tend to be lone male workers, not families. Priti patel recently claimed recently 70% of economic migrants were single males. 

However, where did I live when I was a lone, single male worker?  In a house share with 1-3 other people.  So 400,000 single workers showing up doesn't translate to 400,000 homes needed.

[regprentice]

18 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

However, where did I live when I was a lone, single male worker?  In a house share with 1-3 other people.  So 400,000 single workers showing up doesn't translate to 400,000 homes needed.

Even if you assume that 400,000 economic migrant workers sleep 3 to a home and the remaining 200,000 net migrants are in family units of 4 in a single home we still didnt build enough houses last year as you would need 183k houses and only 171k were built .

[scottbeard]

1 minute ago, regprentice said:

Even if you assume that 400,000 economic migrant workers sleep 3 to a home and the remaining 200,000 net migrants are in family units of 4 in a single home we still didnt build enough houses last year as you would need 183k houses and only 171k were built .

 

But being 12,000 short is rather different in magnitude to @Stewy's "we're not building 1 million houses are we?" comment

[dugsbody]

19 hours ago, Sackboii said:

I look forward to the results in 6-12 months time with great anticipation. I am sure you have bookmarked this thread already. I’ll give you 15:1 odds in your favour..

After all, I have noticed, you’ve been pretty bang on so far..

His prediction is something like 25% nominal. In my opinion, never. My prediction was 5-15% nominal, a lot more in real terms.

[Si1]

21 hours ago, Stewy said:

Didn't happen last time, won't happen this time. The ingredients just aren't there for a crash yet. 

Only an EA could mix metaphors so badly. I doff my cap.

[Stewy]

9 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Only an EA could mix metaphors so badly. I doff my cap.

I just think your hopes will be dashed once again. We need a dose of reality sometimes fella...