Russia will consider any attack on Russian troops in Transnistria to be a direct attack on russia

[Si1]

 

Of course it's not entirely clear what Russia can do to Ukraine that it's not already doing, to deter Ukraine from doing this for Moldova.

 

[shlomo]

Moldova is going to be invaded and both NATO and Russia are trying to get the job done 

[pig]

Problem is by the normal process of inverting what Russia is saying, it sounds like there is a serious threat of Russia invading Moldova:

Moldova dismisses Russian claims of Ukrainian plot to invade breakaway region

Moldova’s government has called for calm after Moscow claimed without evidence that an invasion of Transnistria was likely

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/24/moldova-dismisses-russia-claims-of-ukraine-plot-to-invade-transnistria-region

[Timm]

Why would either Russia or Ukraine want to open a second front?

[pig]

5 minutes ago, shlomo said:

Moldova is going to be invaded and both NATO and Russia are trying to get the job done 

Yes Russia is blaming Ukraine in order that we realise that actually its the CIA thats trying to get NATO to start a war

[pig]

12 minutes ago, Timm said:

Why would either Russia or Ukraine want to open a second front?

My best guess is that the Russians are trying to paint Ukraine as invaders while grabbing a bit of territory. Perhaps it also gives them another point of access into Ukraine.

[mynamehere]

How many times have they said this exact same thing about Kherson and Crimea bridge etc. 

Russian ammo dumps are a legit target. They should capture it 

[Si1]

1 minute ago, mynamehere said:

How many times have they said this exact same thing about Kherson and Crimea bridge etc. 

Russian ammo dumps are a legit target. They should capture it 

They could denazify it....

[Timm]

20 minutes ago, pig said:

My best guess is that the Russians are trying to paint Ukraine as invaders while grabbing a bit of territory. Perhaps it also gives them another point of access into Ukraine.

Looking at a map, I think Russia would find it hard to supply their troops in Transnistria if they were being used against Ukraine. In fact, I think they would get crushed.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Timm

[fellow]

19 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

How many times have they said this exact same thing about Kherson and Crimea bridge etc. 

Russian ammo dumps are a legit target. They should capture it 

Exactly. When was the last time Russia told the truth about anything or stuck to any of their promises?

They like talking tough but they would absolutely Sh*t themselves at the prospect of actually fighting directly against NATO.

[Si1]

19 minutes ago, Timm said:

Looking at a map, I think Russia would find it hard to supply their troops in Transnistria if they were being used against Ukraine. In fact, I think they would get crushed.

This. Transnistria is indefensible right now. And it's fair to say Ukraine is battle hardened.

[Timm]

5 minutes ago, Si1 said:

This. Transnistria is indefensible right now. And it's fair to say Ukraine is battle hardened.

Which is also why Ukraine should leave it alone - Whether Transnistria is part of Moldova, fully autonomous or has some other status, it is not Russian and it is not Ukrainian. It also poses no threat to Ukraine. Any action against it or within it by Ukraine would be against international law and unhelpful to the international narrative.

 

[Si1]

6 minutes ago, Timm said:

Which is also why Ukraine should leave it alone - Whether Transnistria is part of Moldova, fully autonomous or has some other status, it is not Russian and it is not Ukrainian. It also poses no threat to Ukraine.

The ammunition stores and Russian military concentrations pose a clear threat to Ukraine, given Ukraine is being invaded by Russia right now.

6 minutes ago, Timm said:

Any action against it or within it by Ukraine would be against international law and unhelpful to the international narrative.

 

There are rumours Moldova may request Ukraine's assistance in Transnistria or give Ukraine permission to do ground operations in Transnistria. Of course this is still wrapped up with Russian politics too.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Si1

[pig]

27 minutes ago, Timm said:

Looking at a map, I think Russia would find it hard to supply their troops in Transnistria if they were being used against Ukraine. In fact, I think they would get crushed.

Theres a bit on it here  - nothing particularly conclusive and it all runs the risk of backfiring on the Russians:

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/transnistria-next-front-ukraine-war

Theres an understandable tendency for analysis to assume rational actors of course: I've read a few demented Putin rants about the 'Russian World' recently...

[Timm]

3 minutes ago, Si1 said:

The ammunition stores and Russian military concentrations pose a clear threat to Ukraine, given Ukraine is being invaded by Russia right now.

I get that.

Which is why I posted that comment - Ukraine needs to show restraint here, or risk a situation that might make sense strategically but is very damaging in terms of optics.

3 minutes ago, Si1 said:

There are rumours Moldova may request Ukraine's assistance in Transnistria or give Ukraine permission to do ground operations in Transnistria. Of course this is still wrapped up with Russian politics too.

I can't pretend to be an expert, but there is a tripartite peacekeeping operation* in Transnistria. Ukraine must not risk being seen as the party that broke faith.

*probably the wrong term, but you get my drift?

[Timm]

5 minutes ago, pig said:

Theres a bit on it here  - nothing particularly conclusive and it all runs the risk of backfiring on the Russians:

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/transnistria-next-front-ukraine-war

Interesting - thanks.

It's not a long piece, but I might want to read it more than once.

Not a source I have come across before - it it something you follow, or did you find it by chance?

5 minutes ago, pig said:

Theres an understandable tendency for analysis to assume rational actors of course: I've read a few demented Putin rants about the 'Russian World' recently...

Indeed.

It is of course possible to appear demented and also be rational within your own frame/s of reference. If I had to hazard a guess, it would be that Putin tries to appear more crazy than he thinks he is.

Also, I'm quite surprised that nobody has opened the "false flag?" can of worms yet.

Ooops!

[Si1]

12 minutes ago, Timm said:

I get that.

Which is why I posted that comment - Ukraine needs to show restraint here, or risk a situation that might make sense strategically but is very damaging in terms of optics.

Oh quite. I don't think they'll do anything I think it's all just conjecture.

12 minutes ago, Timm said:

I can't pretend to be an expert, but there is a tripartite peacekeeping operation* in Transnistria. Ukraine must not risk being seen as the party that broke faith.

Are you taking the p1ss?

12 minutes ago, Timm said:

*probably the wrong term, but you get my drift?

 

[pig]

13 minutes ago, Timm said:

Interesting - thanks.

It's not a long piece, but I might want to read it more than once.

Not a source I have come across before - it it something you follow, or did you find it by chance?

Indeed.

It is of course possible to appear demented and also be rational within your own frame/s of reference. If I had to hazard a guess, it would be that Putin tries to appear more crazy than he thinks he is.

Also, I'm quite surprised that nobody has opened the "false flag?" can of worms yet.

Ooops!

No its not a source I'm familiar with - so treat with care, although it does come across as 'reasonable'.

I've picked up on bits and pieces of news on Moldova over the last few weeks - a peculiar amount of noise by various parties so I reasoned .... there must be a reason. Which in turn helps with framing the google search.

edit:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-23-2023

The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Edited February 24, 2023 by pig

[Timm]

2 minutes ago, Si1 said:

 

Are you taking the p1ss?

 

No, I'm not taking the piss, but I should emphasise that I'm not an expert.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was an act of aggression, illegal in international law and utterly immoral.

That allows Ukraine to respond robustly against the Russian invaders and to seek help where they can find it.

But, (IMHO) it does not give Ukraine carte blanche to behave outside of international law. Like I said, Transnistria is not Russia and it is not Ukraine. Whatever its status, it is a third party and Ukraine can't just blow up Russian assets on its soil without opening up lots of cans of worms. I suppose another way of putting it is (despite provocation) they still need to retain a moral high ground - for pragmatic reasons if not reasons of morality per se.

[Maghull Mike]

Someone IS going to make a mistake

 

[Maghull Mike]

 

[mynamehere]

Realistically I don't think Ukraine would get away with doing anything without a UN vote?

[Staffsknot]

Transnistria is another example of Russia trying to start fires that could catch NATO off guard - Moldova is backed by Romania - much to Russia's ire.

Ukraine has no reason to attack Transnistria as if Russia uses it as a launchpad they would be short lived offensive and leave the area free for Moldova to take it back - so Transnistria & Crimea potentially gone.

But claim it was Ukr planning attack and NATO have to play careful and talk Romania out of being caught out.

[Sackboii]

On 2/24/2023 at 9:25 PM, mynamehere said:

Realistically I don't think Ukraine would get away with doing anything without a UN vote?

Elephant in the room is that Russia are a permanent member of the UN Security Council so would simply veto any votes/resolutions.

And bizarrely there appears to be no way to kick them out of their permanent membership position. But kicked out they should be..