House Prices will start to crash Q3/Q4 2021

[satsuma]

1 hour ago, markyh said:

I already have a 5 bed detached worth £600k, BTC @ $100k gives me $900k of gainz, @ $300k $2.7m.  Even paying off our £265k mortgage, £1.40 usd exchange rate, and paying 20% CGT,  that still leaves a big chuck of change seeking a solid yield, as only 50% would ever be sold @ $100k, the rest waiting for a bigger price target. 

2 owned outright BTL local to me would provide gross £900-£1000 pcm in rent per house, easily within budget, if prices dropped 40% , 3-4 could be purchased, but it depends if rents drop as much or more than 40%.  Yeild vs hassle vs capital risk would have to be looked at. Cash or Gov bonds provide no yield, so they are out.  Shares  or funds can produce yield but provide a high risk factor of market crashes. 

Crypto DEFI deposits like blockfi.com are attractive with over 9% interest p/a available on USDT, but like shares carry counterparty risk and USD exchange rate risk (GBP appreciating vs USD, yield drops in GBP)

So unfortunately under current UK tax regimes for security of capital vs yield, non leveraged BTL to avoid S21 is still and attractive option. No interest rates or tax issues of leveraged BTL, but you need the reddies to buy outright.  

 

What only 300K per bitcoin? Why are you so bearish!! 

[Julie Clot]

one can only hope prices will crash but I can't see it happening.

unless the whole population rises up and descends on Westminster in protest, the tories in government will only sit back and feather its own property nest.

if a pandemic hasn't budged prices downwards, nothing will.

only thing that will is a labour government and some real socialist policy intervention in the market.

 

 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

Anybody sitting back and waiting for a HPC in GBP terms needs to finally wake the f*** up and realise that they've been played. Saving up for your house deposit in their piddly little 0.4% 'savings' accounts while house prices, with full Tory party backing, rise 8% a year. LOLZ

[dugsbody]

6 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Anybody sitting back and waiting for a HPC in GBP terms needs to finally wake the f*** up and realise that they've been played. Saving up for your house deposit in their piddly little 0.4% 'savings' accounts while house prices, with full Tory party backing, rise 8% a year. LOLZ

I've been meaning to chart a graph of UK house prices in GBP and in XDR (or some other basket of currencies) so people can see this.

 

[steve99]

On 10/03/2021 at 16:57, scottbeard said:

Define "carnage" and "bloodbath" in the context of UK house prices.  10% fall?  20%?  50%?

Just that this feels like the 100th thread I've read in my 14 years on HPC.co.uk that says "house prices are about to collapse" and the best that happened was -15% in 2008/9 and frankly that didn't feel like a "bloodbath".

Too true. There is always another trick "They" will pull out of the hat. Thought they had exhausted it then along comes the stamp duty cut when we had infinitely  far more pressing issues than house price increases. Next the irresponsible 5% deposit scheme on top of the never ending House builders bonus scheme in the form of HTB. What next?

[HovelinHove]

35 minutes ago, steve99 said:

Too true. There is always another trick "They" will pull out of the hat. Thought they had exhausted it then along comes the stamp duty cut when we had infinitely  far more pressing issues than house price increases. Next the irresponsible 5% deposit scheme on top of the never ending House builders bonus scheme in the form of HTB. What next?

Yes, we are living in a country that politicians will prioritize house price growth above everything else, and need to accept this. Ironically I just pulled out of a house purchase this morning, nothing to do with thinking the market will crash, I don't, more to do with the fact that I panicked and made an offer on somewhere that wasn't really right for us because of FOMO.

Supply has been a huge issue in our area for the kind of houses we have been looking at, but I expect the spring to see more properties come on to the market, not necessarily forced sales, more a case of >60s looking to make the most of the end of lockdown, vaccinations etc and high prices, and cash in to downsize. I do think a lot of people have been wary about listing due to COVID. We will see though...either way I intend to buy soon as it is obvious that the UK and other central banks will not stop printing money until they have destroyed our currencies.