Dorkins Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Si1 said: Dan Hannan too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, Dorkins said: Does he mean the Levellers the pop group or the 17th century political movement? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
disenfranchised Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Dorkins said: So which one is it chaps, Corbyn was in permanent opposition to Blair or Corbyn shares responsibility for Blair and Brown's 1997-2007 HPI? You can have it both ways... His continual back bench agitating was anti-Blair, but ultimately his unwillingness to turn in his card over things like Iraq make him part of the problem. The presence of a whole cadre of card carrying lefties who date to the Blair era at the top of Labour still equate to a credibility problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomandlu Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, disenfranchised said: You can have it both ways... His continual back bench agitating was anti-Blair, but ultimately his unwillingness to turn in his card over things like Iraq make him part of the problem. The presence of a whole cadre of card carrying lefties who date to the Blair era at the top of Labour still equate to a credibility problem. Agree that trying to equate Corbyn with Blair makes no sense, but I'm not entirely sure what resigning would have done. The Blairites would, presumably, have put up a safe Blairite candidate, won, and then had even less opposition in parliament. I suppose he could have run as an independent, but that would have implied that the good yeomans of Islington were capable of independent thought. Even Robin Cook only resigned from the cabinet iirc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parkwell Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Tempted to have another rant about the flaws of party politics. Would much rather see all politicians stand as independents and the system reformed around that concept. Would cut out a huge layer of bull. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthamptonBear Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, Parkwell said: Tempted to have another rant about the flaws of party politics. Would much rather see all politicians stand as independents and the system reformed around that concept. Would cut out a huge layer of bull. Anyone who wants power should be kept away from it. Basic law, direct democracy / large juries judging the administrators / civil service. Why do we need a new criminal justice bill every year. Plenty of existing laws. Violence, deception etc are general enough for a jury to decide on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkerbelow Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 8 hours ago, Democorruptcy said: "I don’t see why those that had the historical misfortune to be at university during the £9,000 period should be burdened excessively" Again that is not him saying what you are claiming he said (FYI I take it to mean he would like to reduce their debt burden in some way but it certainly is not him stating he'd wipe out all of their debt. Its why he talks about them being burdened excessively as opposed to not being burdened at all. That is also entirely consistent with everything else he's said on the subject). Look I get it, you hate Corbyn, but when you spread lies like this which were manufactured by CCHQ and spread by the right wing press to wreck his image among the young, you don't tar his image and reputation you tar your own. There are certainly things to dislike about Corbyn, so if you want to attack him do it on those issues, not manufactured ones that don't exist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkerbelow Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 7 hours ago, Sancho Panza said: As you say,the upside with Corbyn is that we'll have a financial crash pretty much as soon as he gets in. I'm half thinking he would do it on purpose and not by accident. I don't think he's the smartest person ever or really beyond average IQ, but he certainly has some smart people advising him, and they've got to have told him that the only way labours under 45's support base is going to be appeased is if they can properly house themselves. That invariably necessitates a substantial fall in the price of housing, and that in turn means a financial crash. So the question is will he do it. Will he do the decent thing and immediately bring about an asset price reset knowing that he pin the blame on the conservative party for creating an asset price bubble (not entirely true but he can certainly spin it that way), while having 5 years to get a recovery going before his party faces reelection. I can only hope him and his team have learned from the catastrophic mistakes the conservatives made on the housing issue, and that he's ready to walk the walk, and not just talk it. If not I'll just go back to spoiling my ballot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkerbelow Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 7 hours ago, iamnumerate said: I can understand your pain, but Labour did the same. If you love the EU vote Green, if you hate it vote UKIP (or its successor). Don't vote for the big two. What on earth would be the point of that? The HPI loving boomers would still all vote Tory to a man (or woman) and get them a landslide, while they'd know they could safely ignore all our votes and the housing issue, because we'd split our votes so may way's that they'd be electorally irrelevant. The only way to force change is to continually vote against any governing party that pushes asset prices rises in a way that hurts. If they get the message that HPI = guaranteed loss of power, they won't do it anymore. Sure they might get back in next time around but that won't be any consolation to the ex-PM and ex-chancellor who's political careers are now over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BorrowToLeech Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 (edited) 38 minutes ago, Lurkerbelow said: I'm half thinking he would do it on purpose and not by accident. I don't think he's the smartest person ever or really beyond average IQ, but he certainly has some smart people advising him, and they've got to have told him that the only way labours under 45's support base is going to be appeased is if they can properly house themselves. Any government that promises meaningful change will cause a market crash, because they must, by definition, upset the rules that have so benefitted billionaires and bankers at the expense of the rest of us. This is true whether the government is left or right wing. In addition, any left wing government is pretty likely to precipitate a market crash, simply because capitalists (particularly crony capitalists) don’t like anti-capitalists, however mild. Essentially, we have sold-off and mortgaged our sovereignty to international capital markets, and are now afraid to vote for governments that offend those same capital markets. That means any government that will tackle oligarchs and bankers. (And this, more than austerity, is why national debt is a problem). It’s the same project fear that the brexiteers warned us about. Edited March 13, 2018 by BuyToLeech Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Lurkerbelow said: I'm half thinking he would do it on purpose and not by accident. I don't think he's the smartest person ever or really beyond average IQ, but he certainly has some smart people advising him, and they've got to have told him that the only way labours under 45's support base is going to be appeased is if they can properly house themselves. That invariably necessitates a substantial fall in the price of housing, and that in turn means a financial crash. So the question is will he do it. Will he do the decent thing and immediately bring about an asset price reset knowing that he pin the blame on the conservative party for creating an asset price bubble (not entirely true but he can certainly spin it that way), while having 5 years to get a recovery going before his party faces reelection. I can only hope him and his team have learned from the catastrophic mistakes the conservatives made on the housing issue, and that he's ready to walk the walk, and not just talk it. If not I'll just go back to spoiling my ballot. I think your sssessment is spot on but I don't think he's got anyone particualrly smart advising him.Having said that,I think the Tory leadership has sleep walked into a massive demographic crisis that's been coming for ten years and are equally badly advised. My prediction of a crash is based on the fact that he'll be stupid enough to start renationalising straight away,probably without compensation which will lead to sterling getting walloped and IR's ratcheting up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 5 hours ago, bear.getting.old said: Has there ever been a HPC anywhere in the world while it has low IRs, high employment etc? There's never been a bubble featuring QE and tax credits/food stamps. 5 hours ago, Si1 said: Dan Hannan too. Plus Carswell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkerbelow Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 43 minutes ago, Sancho Panza said: I think your sssessment is spot on but I don't think he's got anyone particualrly smart advising him.Having said that,I think the Tory leadership has sleep walked into a massive demographic crisis that's been coming for ten years and are equally badly advised. My prediction of a crash is based on the fact that he'll be stupid enough to start renationalising straight away,probably without compensation which will lead to sterling getting walloped and IR's ratcheting up. I used to think the same, that his advisors were the same as him, but the way he played the Tories in last years election campaign..... He ran rings around them. That wasn't his doing, it was his advisors. They are politically smart and so I think understand the risks and potential rewards going forward with respect to the UK's housing issues. These are not the leftists of the 70's or 80's. Though of course this is all just my opinion. Time will tell who is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 5 hours ago, tomandlu said: Agree that trying to equate Corbyn with Blair makes no sense, but I'm not entirely sure what resigning would have done. The Blairites would, presumably, have put up a safe Blairite candidate, won, and then had even less opposition in parliament. I suppose he could have run as an independent, but that would have implied that the good yeomans of Islington were capable of independent thought. Even Robin Cook only resigned from the cabinet iirc. Yes Corbyn could of resigned knowing it would not make the slightest bit of difference, or gritted his teeth and waited for better times, and look at him now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Sancho Panza said: I think your sssessment is spot on but I don't think he's got anyone particualrly smart advising him.Having said that,I think the Tory leadership has sleep walked into a massive demographic crisis that's been coming for ten years and are equally badly advised. My prediction of a crash is based on the fact that he'll be stupid enough to start renationalising straight away,probably without compensation which will lead to sterling getting walloped and IR's ratcheting up. Steve Keen has been talking to the Corbynites. As have the Positive Money guys. Coincidentally, SK is giving a speech to the Bournemouth Labour Party just next week (March 22nd). https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/prof-steve-keen-can-we-avoid-another-global-economic-crisis-tickets-43928059007 Quote Steve Keen, author of Debunking Economics and Can we avoid another financial crisis? is one of a handful of international economists who predicted the global crash of 2008. With the help of what he calls his "******** detector" he has spent his academic life demolishing the nonsense that passes for economics as taught in our universities for decades. It is this indoctrination that results in Labour politicians like Chris Leslie and Yvette Cooper believing that Corbyn's policies are unaffordable and inflationary. These same beliefs marched the world blindfolded into the Great Financial Crisis. Much of the electorate, while sympathetic to Labour's values, still holds the view that the UK economy should be run the way a householder budgets for their shopping: the famous Thatcher shopping basket view. Steve will explain why this view is a fallacy, and explain why parts of the global economy are heading for another crisis, while others like the UK economy are facing stagnation unless economic policy escapes the fetish for government urpluses and addresses the need for industrial development in a backdrop of serious climate change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Lurkerbelow said: I used to think the same, that his advisors were the same as him, but the way he played the Tories in last years election campaign..... He ran rings around them. That wasn't his doing, it was his advisors. They are politically smart and so I think understand the risks and potential rewards going forward with respect to the UK's housing issues. These are not the leftists of the 70's or 80's. Though of course this is all just my opinion. Time will tell who is right. They were up against one of the weakest political top teams the world has ever seen. I mean --ffs- their tag line was that the Apeeza was 'strong and stable' knowing that a chunk of their plan was too have her duck the debate with him.You just don't get opponents that stupid that often. Any Tory with an ounce of emotional intelligence would have walked that election. Amazingly,the blue team will likely double down on a losing strategy and send the Apeeza in to 2022. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 hours ago, Sancho Panza said: Any Tory with an ounce of emotional intelligence would have walked that election. How? The Tories did poorly in GE2017 because so many 30 and 40somethings are stuck in private rentals so no longer switching their vote from red to blue after becoming homeowners. Emotional intelligence and good hair are nice and all but they don't change the economic circumstances of the electorate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 (edited) 9 hours ago, Dorkins said: How? The Tories did poorly in GE2017 because so many 30 and 40somethings are stuck in private rentals so no longer switching their vote from red to blue after becoming homeowners. Emotional intelligence and good hair are nice and all but they don't change the economic circumstances of the electorate. You're right in identifying the demographic where they lost the GE. In answer to your question-Brexit. The Apeeza called an election following the Copeland result and was ahead in the polling substantially at the start of the GE campaign. Reality is that the more people saw of her,the less likely they were to vote for her. A lot of people confuse her being an awful candidate with Corbyn being a brilliant campaigner/eminently electable.I certainly wouldn't back that with my money. In 4 years time it will be a worse demographic situation for the Tories but we'll have to see if they replace her and who with-their front rank does appear to me to struggle crossing over with ordinary folk. Edited March 14, 2018 by Sancho Panza Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Sancho Panza said: You're right in identifying the demographic where they lost the GE. In answer to your question-Brexit. You didn't actually build on the Brexit point in your post... I know the media desperately wanted GE2017 to be "about Brexit" but they were lagging behind the electorate on this one. By GE2017 the vast majority of voters had accepted that Brexit was going to happen, they were more interested in domestic/economic issues. There was no substantial difference between Labour and the Tories on Brexit policy in GE2017. The Lib Dems under Tim Farron tried to be the stop Brexit party and got nowhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Sancho Panza said: In 4 years time it will be a worse demographic situation for the Tories but we'll have to see if they replace her and who with-their front rank does appear to me to struggle crossing over with ordinary folk. It's hard to see anybody in the Cabinet being a vote winner among 20-40something workers. Sajid Javid is kind of making a play for it with housing but if he hasn't delivered anything meaningful by 2022 it will look like more nice words and no action. Where is this letting agent fees ban? Where are more secure ASTs? To my knowledge none of the rest of them have ever said anything meaningful about the housing opportunities available to workers under 45. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_cabinet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, Dorkins said: You didn't actually build on the Brexit point in your post... I know the media desperately wanted GE2017 to be "about Brexit" but they were lagging behind the electorate on this one. By GE2017 the vast majority of voters had accepted that Brexit was going to happen, they were more interested in domestic/economic issues. There was no substantial difference between Labour and the Tories on Brexit policy in GE2017. The Lib Dems under Tim Farron tried to be the stop Brexit party and got nowhere. Brexit won Copeland.It was a momo play. There was an assumption at Tory HQ that Ukip voters would switch to tory.Wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Dorkins said: It's hard to see anybody in the Cabinet being a vote winner among 20-40something workers. Sajid Javid is kind of making a play for it with housing but if he hasn't delivered anything meaningful by 2022 it will look like more nice words and no action. Where is this letting agent fees ban? Where are more secure ASTs? To my knowledge none of the rest of them have ever said anything meaningful about the housing opportunities available to workers under 45. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_Kingdom#Current_cabinet You have to look at who wins the nod in tory safe seats and why to understand the sheer poverty of their leadership offerings. What it tkaes to win over the membership in a Tory safe seat and what it takes to win over undecideds in Nuneaton are comeplety different. I can't think of anyone-even Rees Mogg-who is showing the kind of talent that they need at the top. As I've said this is a structural problem for the Tories that will only get worse as time passes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fence Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 15 hours ago, zugzwang said: Steve Keen has been talking to the Corbynites. Debt forgiveness/holiday it is then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fence Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Sancho Panza said: .....I can't think of anyone-even Rees Mogg-who is showing the kind of talent that they need at the top..... Absolutely, they are cr*p at everything, strategy, morals, succession planning, common sense.......... There may well be someone being prepped in the wings up in Scotland who could do some real damage to the old boys who got them into this mess as well as the Labour ones. A Remainer in favour of immigration, etc though. A bit like Corbyn in some regards but a lot more fun. And she's delivered! Edited March 14, 2018 by Fence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, Fence said: Debt forgiveness/holiday it is then! What's new? We've had ten years of it already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.