Deflationary collapse and the Reflation Cycle to Come.

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

I was at a dinner once with people having a mix of native languages. I had a few to drink and meant to announce only to my English-speaking neighbour that I needed a gypsy's, only I must have shouted it a bit. Somehow everyone wanted to know what I was saying and it snowballed to where I had to offer the translation "necessito un beso de una gitana" (I need the kiss of a gypsy) which didn't help the situation or my credibility at all . Never try to explain cockney rhyming slang.

good job it wasnt a Brad pitt (circa Eartha kit), those would have been too difficult to explain. Stick to the basics, nobody confuses the 4 letter words.

[chronyx]

11 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Go on then -Chronyx/ what’s the plan for this week...it’s  hold tight to the IBTL for me and see if I can move a chunk from one of my picks which isn’t doing well to one that is... might make a bit...

Same here for IBTL, but also a dash of watching Sibanye fall further no doubt (-35% now! Didn't invest that much though)

HSS hire might be worth a look, based on the thoughts in this thread i got a very small amount as a tester and it's starting to tick up.

Tempted by Schneider electric but they are already trading at highs and at that price i would want to be damn sure it was going to higher highs

PHSP has broken even inc trading charge so it will be interesting to see how it goes this week

Have you any Infrastata in your portfolio?

[Thorn]

25 minutes ago, chronyx said:

Same here for IBTL, but also a dash of watching Sibanye fall further no doubt (-35% now! Didn't invest that much though)

HSS hire might be worth a look, based on the thoughts in this thread i got a very small amount as a tester and it's starting to tick up.

Tempted by Schneider electric but they are already trading at highs and at that price i would want to be damn sure it was going to higher highs

PHSP has broken even inc trading charge so it will be interesting to see how it goes this week

Have you any Infrastata in your portfolio?

I sold it all a week or two ago because it was so volatile and rubbish... but checked in on Friday morning and decided sod it bought a big chunk and watched it go updownupdownup over the day. Holy God it was rotten.

Then it went up and held and was great. And now I think we’ll sod it it’s not Mothercare so you never know. People will need gas...so Fingers crossed for the next week and beyond.

... I reckon this hold for the longterm thing sounds lovely but is horrible when you watch every hour because you’ve had to earn every penny.

Self employed here myself. Learning as I go. Don’t want to lose out...but also want to ride the next wave.

 

[leonardratso]

hourly/daily watching and reacting will be your doom.

[Thorn]

2 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hourly/daily watching and reacting will be your doom.

True. Hard to step back. Wish I had earned it through QE/TFS. Then it would not matter.

[Viceroy]

14 hours ago, TJHooker said:

This video is from April 2014, the FED have raised rates several times and the Armageddon he prophesies about didn't happen.

 

He explains that currently (2014) institutions/sovereign wealth funds etc are parking their money in bonds, but when they decide to head for the exits, that's when you'll see the exponential move in rates and flight to equities etc..April 2014 the DOW was 16,500.

July 2016 saw the peak price in US 30Y TBonds.. it's been downhill since.  But I guess there will always be reaction rallies in long-term bear markets.  Will there be one last rally that sees TLT up to 150?  DB has been bang on with some forecasts! Armstrong says no. They both agree longterm about bonds (bang) and interest rates (v high) but in the near-term they differ. 

So 2018 is watch the numbers - once the Fed Discount rate closes a month above 2.25% expect a jump to 5% within a few months.  

[Thorn]

11 minutes ago, Viceroy said:

He explains that currently (2014) institutions/sovereign wealth funds etc are parking their money in bonds, but when they decide to head for the exits, that's when you'll see the exponential move in rates and flight to equities etc..April 2014 the DOW was 16,500.

July 2016 saw the peak price in US 30Y TBonds.. it's been downhill since.  But I guess there will always be reaction rallies in long-term bear markets.  Will there be one last rally that sees TLT up to 150?  DB has been bang on with some forecasts! Armstrong says no. They both agree longterm about bonds (bang) and interest rates (v high) but in the near-term they differ. 

So 2018 is watch the numbers - once the Fed Discount rate closes a month above 2.25% expect a jump to 5% within a few months.  

Tricky for sure.

DB has been on the money.

MA paints a broad/stroke future picture. Avoid bonds, get into equities before the panicky foreigners do.

 

[Viceroy]

3 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Tricky for sure.

DB has been on the money.

MA paints a broad/stroke future picture. Avoid bonds, get into equities before the panicky foreigners do.

 

Gold is another one - DB sees $1450 before a crash down below $800, then a massive bull market around 2025.

Armstrong on his private blog sees $1450 as resistance and also says Gold can still slingshot down to $850 before heading up in a bull market rally around 2024.  

He gives a number to watch - to head higher Gold must close at the end of a month above 1362._0.  So intraday Gold can still jump to $1450 before falling and closing below 1362._0 at the end of a month to keep it in a bear market for the time being.

If it keeps failing that monthly number then a swing low below $1000 is still possible on the horizon.  He quotes a high for the USD to be 2021 - gold and commodities are inversely correlated - is this the swing low for Gold?

[Thorn]

28 minutes ago, Viceroy said:

Gold is another one - DB sees $1450 before a crash down below $800, then a massive bull market around 2025.

Armstrong on his private blog sees $1450 as resistance and also says Gold can still slingshot down to $850 before heading up in a bull market rally around 2024.  

He gives a number to watch - to head higher Gold must close at the end of a month above 1362._0.  So intraday Gold can still jump to $1450 before falling and closing below 1362._0 at the end of a month to keep it in a bear market for the time being.

If it keeps failing that monthly number then a swing low below $1000 is still possible on the horizon.  He quotes a high for the USD to be 2021 - gold and commodities are inversely correlated - is this the swing low for Gold?

I reckon nobody really knows, Viceroy.

if I had to pick a team I would be marching towards the enemy trenches with DB. 

No question.

 

[Viceroy]

Yep, one has to pick a side - certainly keeps life interesting!

[zugzwang]

Italian bonds crashy crashy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-29/italian-two-year-bond-yields-climb-to-highest-level-since-2013

[durhamborn]

9 hours ago, Viceroy said:

Gold is another one - DB sees $1450 before a crash down below $800, then a massive bull market around 2025.

Armstrong on his private blog sees $1450 as resistance and also says Gold can still slingshot down to $850 before heading up in a bull market rally around 2024.  

He gives a number to watch - to head higher Gold must close at the end of a month above 1362._0.  So intraday Gold can still jump to $1450 before falling and closing below 1362._0 at the end of a month to keep it in a bear market for the time being.

If it keeps failing that monthly number then a swing low below $1000 is still possible on the horizon.  He quotes a high for the USD to be 2021 - gold and commodities are inversely correlated - is this the swing low for Gold?

Il share my full thoughts on gold,exactly what i see.Coming out of its long consolidation has proved hard and its had to fight its way up.However,it has done this with equity markets holding,rates rising and the Fed starting QT.The fact it has been able to still grind higher against such things points to a lot of strength underneath.My exact target i see as possible is $1560.00.I have $1450 as my hold until then and look target.I will not sell before that.If it goes down so be it.I think the dollar will turn lower again at 95,that isnt a given though,gold and the dollar could go up together.Rare,but possible.If the dollar does turn lower at 95 gold (and gold stocks) could get some rocket fuel under them.I still still gold going below $1000,probably around $800 for a very short period,but thats more based on liquidity issues in a big asset sell off.IF that happens i would consider gold,silver and their miners as the buys of a lifetime and the market will miss it at first.Just 10%/15% of liquid worth spread across the space should prove very lucrative indeed as the market wakes up to the scale of the inflation ahead.

Silver i still think might dip under $16 before it goes to $22/23 then down below $10.

Oil i see at $20,maybe even $15

Copper down to $1

Those are not trading calls simply a road map of what i think might be ahead,as always DYOR,balanced portfolio,seek advice etc etc.

Dixons -20% today i see.

 

 

[chronyx]

GBPUSD now below 1.33 at ~1.324

[leonardratso]

lon dc i reckon has had that coming, last year it was a dog, yet still clawed its way up a tad, this year its a lame dog, i always found dc to be expensive and the staff patronising, it couldnt happen a worse sheetbag retailer, well deserved.

[durhamborn]

I should add IBTL is up around 10% from its lows.Didnt every financial pundit and his dog say T bonds would crash?.As always they fail to spot inflection points and the affects of currency.

No doubt they were saying to buy Dixons instead.

[chronyx]

9 hours ago, Thorn said:

I reckon nobody really knows, Viceroy.

if I had to pick a team I would be marching towards the enemy trenches with DB. 

No question.

 

 

[chronyx]

11 hours ago, Thorn said:

I sold it all a week or two ago because it was so volatile and rubbish... but checked in on Friday morning and decided sod it bought a big chunk and watched it go updownupdownup over the day. Holy God it was rotten.

Then it went up and held and was great. And now I think we’ll sod it it’s not Mothercare so you never know. People will need gas...so Fingers crossed for the next week and beyond.

... I reckon this hold for the longterm thing sounds lovely but is horrible when you watch every hour because you’ve had to earn every penny.

Self employed here myself. Learning as I go. Don’t want to lose out...but also want to ride the next wave.

 

As winter approaches I think Infrastrata must go up as they've shut down loads of gas storage tanks, and as summer has actually delivered so far we may get another proper winter 

[Talking Monkey]

20 hours ago, Thorn said:

Tricky for sure.

DB has been on the money.

MA paints a broad/stroke future picture. Avoid bonds, get into equities before the panicky foreigners do.

 

I just can't see how the DOW goes much higher

[Bear Hug]

After following this thread for a few months, I bought some BT shares today with my LISA.  I think there may be some degree of over-worrying about their pension deficit, however BTPS valuation results are a snapshot at a particular time, the position may have improved since.  In particular, a couple of recent estimates of current funding position of overall UK DB pension scheme universe appear to show some improvement

Edited May 29, 2018 by Bear Hug

[Thorn]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

I just can't see how the DOW goes much higher

Depends if you think global money will seek a safe haven that isn't government.

[Sancho Panza]

On 23/05/2018 at 18:13, durhamborn said:

Probably a dip,and the main event is down the road.Il share what i see just for a bit of fun.Not advice etc and not all numbers crunched.I see the dollar index hitting 95ish then turning down again.Silver trading just below $16 maybe (close now) and turning up strongly,GDX within 6% of a bottom then a very strong run up.I dont trade short term moves,but thats what i see from the numbers and cross market stuff.It is very possible though sterling keeps falling and i was happy to buy dollar assets arounf the $1.40s.Sentiment in gold and PMs was down to 10% last week in retail (dumb money).Given i think the dollar will turn down again around 95 we could be looking at a very strong run in PMs and the miners.Not a trading call of course,just a short term picture.

DB,where do you source that data if you dont mind me asking.Very interesting to see it at sectoral level.

On 24/05/2018 at 10:29, durhamborn said:

These are just my own personal views based on what i think the next cycle will look like,and how i think assets will react to it.There are a lot of "ifs and maybe" involved.However i do see a chance for silver to hit $200 in the next cycle,maybe even $250+.Im happy to invest some wealth in that chance.Direction of travel is always how i invest,and how close to a big inflection point.

I think @SanchoPanza has been spending quite a bit of time going over the silver miners space,so might add a few thoughts later.

 

I'm in the 'spray and pray' school too and prefer to buy individual miners.Hopefuly helping to avoid some of the shares that have benefited pricewise from being momo plays.

In terms of silver,we're still sat on the sidelines,but I like the charts (as in don't think they're massively overblown) of Pan American Silver,First Majestic,Fortuna,Couer,Hecla,Tahoe,SSR,McEwen.

We've already got a decent size part of the portfolio in the Goldies (circa 7%) and am waiting to add more for a variety of reasons-macroa/market risk/charts.I'm in no rush.

On 26/05/2018 at 10:56, TJHooker said:

Got a grand and a half's worth at 0.35 as a ride it out until the end punt, should find out by Xmas if its a winner or loser.

What Telcos are you looking at DB, was looking at MTN to hold for the long term.

 

MTN gets you good exposure to the growing middle class in Nigeria/SA.A lot of blue chip co's are investing heavily in Nigeria for good reason imho.Lots of potnetial there.I jsut wouldn't over egg it.I posted a rough portfolio guide earlier in the thread for us five years hence and had MTN as one of the telco's <1%.

On 28/05/2018 at 14:23, Majorpain said:

Things are going for bad to worse for Italy, eurosceptic economic minister rejected by the president and bond yields are blowing out in responce.  The 10 Year is nearly up to US level for goodness sake!

Debt to GDP for the club med ranking is Greece, Italy, Portugal, Cyprus and then Spain.  Those are the ones to watch next to see if the contagion is spreading, which will turn this from an Italian problem to an ECB problem.

Italy is becoming interesting indeed.

Wolf gives it the once over.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/05/29/nirps-revenge-italian-bonds-plunge-worst-day-in-decades/

'To this day, it remains inexplicable why the ECB decided that Italian yields with maturities of two years or less should be negative – that investors, or rather pension beneficiaries, etc., who own these misbegotten bonds, would need to pay the Italian government, one of the most indebted in the world, for the privilege of lending it money. But that scheme came totally unhinged just now. '

 

[Sancho Panza]

On 26/05/2018 at 09:00, durhamborn said:

Im very tempted to start shorting some of the housebuilders now as i think UK housing has already entered a bear market.Higher priced sales on new build estates are sticking and seeing price falls.Looking back at my old charts this sort of action marked tops in house builders in the past.The only fly in the ointment is HTB now.

I initiated a couple of short positions via IG last week.I've been mulling this for some time and have been watching the charts closely for months.

Small bets at the mo as they could benefit from a flight to safety-worth noting Rightmove went up today-.This is a bizarre market but one that offers massive opportunities.

I'm looking to build on these bets and beef them up but only when the top is in and the momo is down.

Barratts top apears in,added a little Taylor Wimpey punt.I think the bulk of the rest are ready to turn but haven't.

Other short opportunities Rightmove,Ferguson,BA,Easyjet,Boeing,London Stock Exchange and a few more.Interesting times possibly loom.

DYOR obviously.

Thanks to MvR as below for putting onto the US options

 @ManVsRecession

Edited May 29, 2018 by Sancho Panza

[Sancho Panza]

2 hours ago, Thorn said:

Depends if you think global money will seek a safe haven that isn't government.

A safe haven isn't Boeing at $352 and Goldman at $227.

I questioned this Armstong thesis earlier in the thread and never received a satisfactory answer-ie how can you recomend a price weighted index with variable selection criteria as a safe haven.

[Sancho Panza]

2 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

After following this thread for a few months, I bought some BT shares today with my LISA.  I think there may be some degree of over-worrying about their pension deficit, however BTPS valuation results are a snapshot at a particular time, the position may have improved since.  In particular, a couple of recent estimates of current funding position of overall UK DB pension scheme universe appear to show some improvement

Even for a BT bear (no offence) there comes a point where it's too cheap.I haven't got there yet but under £2 they're very interesing indeed.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Sancho Panza

[Viceroy]

15 hours ago, durhamborn said:

Il share my full thoughts on gold,exactly what i see.Coming out of its long consolidation has proved hard and its had to fight its way up.However,it has done this with equity markets holding,rates rising and the Fed starting QT.The fact it has been able to still grind higher against such things points to a lot of strength underneath.My exact target i see as possible is $1560.00.I have $1450 as my hold until then and look target.I will not sell before that.If it goes down so be it.I think the dollar will turn lower again at 95,that isnt a given though,gold and the dollar could go up together.Rare,but possible.If the dollar does turn lower at 95 gold (and gold stocks) could get some rocket fuel under them.I still still gold going below $1000,probably around $800 for a very short period,but thats more based on liquidity issues in a big asset sell off.IF that happens i would consider gold,silver and their miners as the buys of a lifetime and the market will miss it at first.Just 10%/15% of liquid worth spread across the space should prove very lucrative indeed as the market wakes up to the scale of the inflation ahead.

Silver i still think might dip under $16 before it goes to $22/23 then down below $10.

Oil i see at $20,maybe even $15

Copper down to $1

Those are not trading calls simply a road map of what i think might be ahead,as always DYOR,balanced portfolio,seek advice etc etc.

Dixons -20% today i see.

 

 

As ever, thanks DB!  

To be clear, i'm fascinated in the similarities of some of DB and Armstrong's forecasts, so the valuable input & experience of everyone on this thread helps me to also query their disparities and why their other forecasts have different outcomes.  I learn as I go..thanks for being gentle with me : )

Armstrong today mentioned the flight to US Treasuries is on (as DB has said they will!), but his private blog only actually goes into detail about UK Gilts(?)..I did previously email him directly to ask if there is one last high before the bond crash but he said the high was July 2016.