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Viceroy

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Everything posted by Viceroy

  1. Do some Googlings...: Durhamborn and Deflationary...see what comes up : )
  2. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/the-forecaster/the-revenge-of-martin-armstrong/ "What do you leave behind to even show you once existed? Everything that I have been through has been a training course for what I do today. Yes, there has to be a cost for the Socrates Project because I am not going to be around forever. If you want that to continue, then people who are there to maintain the clients have to earn a living. We keep the prices modest for the general public to have access. That was my pledge. Of course, portfolio and global correlations models are for the institutions who have different sets of problems. "I do this because I can. I don’t need the money which allows me to do what I want to do when I want to. I am not interested in managing money again – that’s a 7-day 24hr job. Too old for that. I live right on the beach so I can go for walks whenever I have time. So I have carved out time for myself, while still paying forward. ...So it is my revenge. Enjoy it!"
  3. I'll take the challenge : ) Yes no-one is 100% correct and I'm not saying he's infallible, but some of those statements are misconstrued: "April 19th, 2013 - "We elected Weekly Bearish Reversals in both metals with gold closing at 1397.2 and 2304.1. Gold closed also just below the Weekly Break line 1398.6. This is warning that the FAILURE to exceed Friday's 4/19 high intraday, and a penetration of 1310, we are looking at a drop to $1158. Breach that, and we very well may see $907 in 2 weeks." No chance. Before he said this Gold had dropped $200 in the month of April, 2013 but it ended about $90 higher after he made the statement and it did not reach or breach $1158 although the following month it came close. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 3 years later." At the beginning of the month Gold was $1600 and on Friday 19 April closed 1395.30. On that Friday no-one knew what was gonna happen on the Monday - I bet many were tempted to sell or short the market... His computer Socrates crunched the numbers and warned = during the next trading week 22-26 April, IF Gold fails to exceed 19 April's high (1420.30 https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data) intraday and penetrate below 1310 - THEN YOU will get the drop to $1158 (within the next few weeks or months). You base your trade on those numbers. The following Monday Gold opened at 1421 therefore exceeding (not failing) 19th April's intraday high of 1420.30 AND never went below 1310 all week. This tells you there would be no drop to $1158, nor then onto $907 for that matter. Gold actually closed the week at 1453.60. So he never said it would drop to $1158 for sure - ONLY if those numbers were elected, which they weren't. If they had been elected then you would sell/short and watch it fall to $1158. His reversals are buy or sell signals - once the market closes below them (a bearish reversal number/ or above them for a bullish reversal number) then you know whether to jump in or out. This guy has not understood what Armstrong/Socrates is warning. Even Thorn watched the WEC Reversal and Array workshop and said it was hard to follow. You look for cycle TIME (given by the Arrays) and the Reversal PRICE (4x Reversal numbers each for: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, Yearly). If those numbers are not reached on those cyclical TIME tops, then it's not ready and you look forward to the next one... even DB says Cycles can stretch..I guess people read his articles which say things like 'if this is reached then it's up, but if not then it's down' and translate that as 'flip-flopping'? For sub $1000 Gold has to close below a certain number to tell you it's ready to drop..so far it has not.. but it has also not closed above the Monthly Bullish Reversal either to tell you it's about to rally hard...so it stays in a trading range for now.. I can't find anything online where he says $100 Oil is here to stay? Forecaster Martin Armstrong calling for start to a Sovereign debt crisis 2015.75 - he means the 3rd quarter of 2015 but it did not and has not transpired... yet. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-bond-bubble-confirmed/ "..This 2015.75 turn should be the start of BIG BANG and this should be a market with the low in interest rates that ferments the peak in the bond bubble. ..." ........and the fermentation of the peak of the Bond bubble happened nearly a year later on July 2016 with the peak in price/low in rates for the US 30yr Bond (for now...???!), and the Sovereign Debt crisis is now gaining traction i.e. pension funds failing, taxes increasing to fill the debt hole...
  4. DYOR as they say : ) If you're digging deeper watch the documentary made about his life https://vimeo.com/ondemand/theforecaster
  5. He says a surge in the DOW is indicative of non-US foreign funds buying blue chip big names or 'trophies' as a currency play and safe haven. He equates it back to the 80s when the Japanese splurged their money - instead of investing in $100,000 houses in the US (NASDAQ), they bought the Rockefeller Centre (DOW). https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/the-dow-v-sp500-v-nasdaq-whats-the-difference/The Dow Jones Industrials is the “big” money. You will notice that this index leads the way. It is the first out of a key low because it is typically the foreign capital that comes in based on currency. You will also notice it tend to top out first because the big money tends to start to pull out first also due to currency. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/pe-ratio-mania-v-panic/you have to look at this, not as a mania of speculative fever, but as a panic in government with a collapse in confidence. That is when money just seeks safety; not profit. A mania is a speculative boom where profit is the motive. What we face is the opposite. When capital is just trying to break even, the P/E Ratio rises to historical highs. Above is the P/E Ratio on the S&P 500 since the 2007 high. It rose to over 120 during the crash. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/value-investing-good-or-bad/ (2016 article when DOW was 16,500) We still see the Dow at the 23,000 and exceeding that area with the potential to reach 40,000 remains viable for 2020-2021. You must understand, however, for that to unfold confidence must collapse in government.
  6. As ever, thanks DB! To be clear, i'm fascinated in the similarities of some of DB and Armstrong's forecasts, so the valuable input & experience of everyone on this thread helps me to also query their disparities and why their other forecasts have different outcomes. I learn as I go..thanks for being gentle with me : ) Armstrong today mentioned the flight to US Treasuries is on (as DB has said they will!), but his private blog only actually goes into detail about UK Gilts(?)..I did previously email him directly to ask if there is one last high before the bond crash but he said the high was July 2016.
  7. Yep, one has to pick a side - certainly keeps life interesting!
  8. Gold is another one - DB sees $1450 before a crash down below $800, then a massive bull market around 2025. Armstrong on his private blog sees $1450 as resistance and also says Gold can still slingshot down to $850 before heading up in a bull market rally around 2024. He gives a number to watch - to head higher Gold must close at the end of a month above 1362._0. So intraday Gold can still jump to $1450 before falling and closing below 1362._0 at the end of a month to keep it in a bear market for the time being. If it keeps failing that monthly number then a swing low below $1000 is still possible on the horizon. He quotes a high for the USD to be 2021 - gold and commodities are inversely correlated - is this the swing low for Gold?
  9. He explains that currently (2014) institutions/sovereign wealth funds etc are parking their money in bonds, but when they decide to head for the exits, that's when you'll see the exponential move in rates and flight to equities etc..April 2014 the DOW was 16,500. July 2016 saw the peak price in US 30Y TBonds.. it's been downhill since. But I guess there will always be reaction rallies in long-term bear markets. Will there be one last rally that sees TLT up to 150? DB has been bang on with some forecasts! Armstrong says no. They both agree longterm about bonds (bang) and interest rates (v high) but in the near-term they differ. So 2018 is watch the numbers - once the Fed Discount rate closes a month above 2.25% expect a jump to 5% within a few months.
  10. Armstrong's jump to 10% interest rates pertains to Europe and their bond market melt-down. Once the ECB stops buying no-one else will touch EU bonds with a barge pole. In this video about World Interest rates https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnvHZGTGu2g (Martin Armstrong Q&A Discussion with Michael Campbell of "MoneyTalks" Radio from the 2017 World Economic Conference) he says USA's bond market will melt down more slowly than other places to begin with. At 1min30secs he gives a Socrates signal for US Bonds and when to short them - it's when the US Fed Reserve Discount Rate closes above 2.9 (currently at 2.25% - a year ago it was 1.25%). The EU has made it illegal to short European Bonds. He's also given the 2.25% figure in his blog: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/the-fed-is-raising-rates-because-of-the-pension-crisis/ "..We have a very RARE Double Monthly Bullish Reversal at 2.25%. A monthly closing above that level and 5% will be seen in a matter of months..." More on interest rates shooting up - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhyDsRqTAN8
  11. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/commodity-prices-into-2032/ "..This tends to imply we may see the “real” high in commodity prices (adjusted for inflation) form in line with the ECM in 2032. This is by no means a straight linear progression. There will be booms and busts along the way. Therefore, that is when we will see the final REAL high in gold, agriculturals, metals, etc.." https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/the-economic-confidence-model-why-there-are-6-waves/ He talks about the culmination of 6 cycles as the Sixth Wave - resulting in a very strong one! https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/dark-age-v-renaissance/ "..I have written many times that when this wave peaks in 2032, when we come to a crossroads. We either regress contracting into authoritarianism, then break-up into a fragmented feudal type system of local tribes basically, or we can perhaps crash and burn, but then see the light and we make a major technological leap forward.."
  12. For those interested - Martin Armstrong interview with Greg Hunter USA Watchdog from 19 May: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFRuRoqLKZU - capital flows to USA & DOW/equities - DOW to consolidate til July, then resume upward trend - Gold to go DOWN as USD goes up, but will then go up substantially once monetary system cracks (2020+) - interest rates to be double-figures by mid-2020's - why Europe & Japan have destroyed their Bond markets plus more..
  13. Yes. DB also agrees the USD will rise and that US Govt bonds will be terrible in the next cycle. DB thinks they will have one last hurrah in a deflationary crack whereas Armstrong says they've cracked already so steer clear. I personally have no idea..this thread is great to bounce around narratives and theories. The vid is great because his spoken explanations are lucid as opposed to some of his blog articles - but I'm under the impression he writes during the night, and as he states in the vid he can only sleep 3hrs at a time which his hedge fund days conditioned him into. To understand the 2nd half with Erwin (what a cracking accent) read 'Methods & Methodologies' & watch the 'how to' video links about the arrays, the 1% rule, the reversal system, directional changes etc on his website..once concepts are grasped it becomes much more comprehendible. The Forecaster documentary about Socrates-forecasting, plus his life background and what he went through in prison are eye opening - https://vimeo.com/ondemand/theforecaster - get out the popcorn
  14. For those interested, here is 4hr+45mins of Armstrong's Nov 2016 WEC conference, Day 1 : https://vimeo.com/198896912
  15. I totally get that ?...so hard to decipher! I emailed him this week to ask if there would be a last bull in Bonds and his direct reply is “the high in bonds is in as of july 2016. We had the first decline and our countertrend reaction. We in crash mode now” DB’s analysis is also fantastic, very thought-provoking, a great call on currency and I have learned a lot from this thread. Thx for all the input guys. Hopefully people reading this thread will be able to protect their savings through it all.
  16. Thank you DB! It would be interesting to know if your charts can predict a time frame, altho you say cycles can get stretched etc? Armstrong's private blog calls for the major high for the US dollar as 2020/2021 timeframe. I think you forsee DXY 120 and TLT 150 - could it be then? Perhaps that is when the monetary system breaks, inflation takes off and people start to run towards commodities to put their wealth in, before it gets inflated away. You've written that you see mid 2020's as a shining time for precious metals.
  17. as a way to gather my thoughts: ..So as the $ gets stronger and peripheral countries start to go under due to a mountain of un-payable debt, capital flows to the US as a 'flight to safety' and into tangible things like equities. US Stock markets go up - especially the DOW as it's perceived as the 'trophy' and is indicative of international money-buying based on currency, rather than domestic US institutional buyers who traditionally go for the broader S&P, whilst speculators/retailers opt for the NASDAQ https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/the-dow-v-sp500-v-nasdaq-whats-the-difference/ https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/us-share-market-broad-overvaluation-index-one-of-the-best-leading-indicators-we-have-ever-created/ The strong US dollar and bubbling stock markets means the Fed fights this with ever-rising interest rates. This effectively blows up their own massive debt pile - people wake up and realise it's impossible to ever pay it back, sniff a sovereign debt crisis on the horizon and start pulling out their money from US Govt bonds and into tangible assets - like more equities, gold, art, land.. houses too but as they will be taxed hard, this cycle won't see them being a great store of value..(DB has written more on this, that house prices will rise nominally again after a time, but will not keep up when adjusted for inflation). https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/what-are-tangible-assets/ The theory I've read is that Europe goes down first, then Japan and USA last.
  18. DB - GBP currently 1.35...do you see GBP having one last shot up at 1.40 range if/when the DXY falls to 86? I spent hours over the weekend re-reading this fantastic thread from the beginning - those cycle charts of DB have made some great calls - well done and thanks for sharing your knowledge!
  19. He views socialism as communism lite I guess - the govt tells you what you are allowed to keep. They allow themselves to borrow to imperpetuity, make political promises to win votes and never pay it off. 70% of the US debt is accrued interest alone - our ever increasing taxes are not used towards schools, hospitals, roads etc but to service debt repayments. When Govt requires xcess of 30% of GDP in order to pay their wages, lifestyle, pensions, corruption etc this model is unsustainable and due to implode soon. They created this mess. They make interest rates negative to force spending but therefore punish people who save for retirement (pension funds) whilst burdening us with increasing taxes. "Tax the rich. All the money from the Forbes richest 100 list would not balance the Govt books for 1 year. " Taxing the rich will not plug the hole. Socialism allows career politicians to get a foot in the door. They are then up for sale and the rich elites make donations to get what they want a la the Clintons.. its also to do with cycles.. we're currently in a private wave which started in 1981 where private assets rather than Government assets are where capital flows to..this cycle ends in 2032 when it will change to public ie Goverment will be the flight to safety.. He has a solution:
  20. Spend it on tangible assets like gold etc that will survive the transition from this to the new monetary system..commodities and gold etc forecast to start rising from 2024. DB says the same re cycles and gold. Interest rates to rise substantially by that time causing debt to become unserviceable, Govts go broke hence a new monetary system, one that will probably be electronic. Once gold goes past $2700 best to hold the physical rather than paper. But Govts can tax the hell out of it or make it illegal to be used as direct payment - trading your stash for a house for example (Armstrong forecasts gold to max out around $5000).
  21. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/how-do-we-really-forecast-the-future/ "This is the collapse of socialism which is the collapse of pensions and will result in a new monetary system. We will see 2019 as a financial crisis and 2024 as a rise in commodity prices." So next year sees GFC2 and he agrees with DB that 2024 is a rise in commodities (Gold, Silver, Nat Gas etc..)
  22. Martin Armstrong 24 March 2018 - covers debt deflation, DOW, interest rates, real estate.. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4158660-week-money-march-24-2018
  23. DB - what's your view on the precious metal royalty/streamers - such as Wheaton Precious Metals, Franco Nevada, Sandstorm Gold etc?
  24. Completely agree about passive aggressive - Kiwis excel at rugby and tailgating. They're mostly friendly when you're out and about, but it's very hard to crack into their cliques. I have now a few close Kiwi friends but all have lived abroad at some point so have a different mentality anyway. Outside of the cities there is obviously much less money..a relative who campervanned around the north island was quite shocked at the level of poverty he saw. And the crazy driving..
  25. Bizarrely I don't suffer as much from hay fever (& I'm also allergic to cats) as I did in England, but I think it's the coastal wind blowing it away, whereas I notice that travelling inland I get sneezy in Spring. Some Kiwi & Aus wines give me an itchy throat (but not the organic stuff). A friend's daughter had respiratory problems until they moved house (and it was a fine 1950's brick house too)- definitely mould induced. Our leather shoes at the back of the cupboard can grow a green fur to them if we don't use the dehumidifiers enough. Having no carpet helps and we make sure to clean the curtains, duvets, heavy linens etc a few times a year. If you can find a place to live that has had HRV (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_recovery_ventilation) installed then it also filters the air so you don't breathe in any nasties, as well as taking out the humidity & heating/cooling your home. Wish we had it. Hope you find a cure soon!
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