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About ManVsRecession

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  1. Gary Cohn, Trumps top economics advisor, just resigned. Markets gapped down when futures re-opened at 11pm by over 1%. Could be the start of something? Certainly there's be uncertainty.. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/mar/06/gary-cohn-quits-trump-economic-adviser
  2. Sure, here you go.. from a reply to Fence upthread. ( easy to lose things in such a long thread!) For your purposes, hedging, Interactive Brokers sounds like it would be the best one as a main brokerage. You'd want your Easyjet shares in the same account as your DAL options, so they really are hedging each other. IB is great because has all the tools you need to know your overall exposure at portfolio or individual stock level, and then apply the best hedging strategy. For pure options trading though, and learning the ropes, Tastyworks is a much nicer, platform to use, and the c
  3. You're welcome. I learn a lot about macro trends from you guys so I thought I'd try to share what I know too. Counter party risk is one reason everyone trades US exchange-listed options. They're all guaranteed by the Options Clearing Corporation, which in itself is backed up by the Fed, so there is effectively no counter party risk at all. Obviously this doesn't apply to the OTC swaps, options and other derivatives that sunk Lehman and others. This is where a slightly more sophisticated hedging plan can help. You just need to decide how much protection you want, and what you're
  4. I see the confusion.. By "short stock options positions", I mean I sell(short) calls and puts on various stocks and indices as my main way of making money. I'm not short the stock or index itself. I'm generally betting the stock will stay within a range, between my short put to the downside, and short call to the upside. However I will try to balance my positions and select strategies so overall I carry some "short delta", i.e. all other things being equal, I profit up to a point from the markets falling, which partly compensates for the increase in IV when the market falls. Usually
  5. To try to explain for the benefit of anyone interested.. Long options are a useful way to hedge portfolios, lock in fixed prices for a period, or make limited risk speculative bets. Short options traders and market makers take on the risk if they believe the market price for those options reflects the actual risk of large move, plus a little extra for profit. Options sellers are mostly large firms which make markets right across the options universe, arbitraging price/risk imbalances, so all the options are perfectly fairly priced given overall market risk. And there are some small play
  6. SVXY, another short VIX ETF blew up yesterday too. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/volatility-armageddon-cratered-one-of-wall-streets-most-popular-trades-2018-02-05 Both these ETFs have been artificially depressing options Implied Volatility, making options cheaper than they should be given the market risk. No doubt some insiders made a killing buying long puts before the crash. Now, with these ETFs gone, options premiums should rise to more sensible levels for the next couple of years. I'm not sure how this will affect the prices of the underlying instruments, but it does in
  7. currently the Dow is down 5.86% now.. I wonder what happens tomorrow when the masses in their index funds see the news headlines and think about selling...
  8. Well that was quite a day. There's a chance of a bit of a rebound tomorrow, but given the selling at the close, and in the futures afterwards, maybe not...
  9. Here's a useful breakdown of the ETF for anyone looking to replicate it.. SIL.pdf
  10. SIL is still available on IG.com sharedealing, but not the ISA. You can always use spreadbetting or CFDs too, though these instruments are expensive to hold long term, and again aren't ISA-able.
  11. There comes a point, as bankruptcy and/or personal ruin becomes inevitable, when it can make sense to use any remaining credit to buy hard assets and stuff you'll need over the coming years. Things you'll still be able to make use of productively like a vehicle and tools for work, new boots, boiler repairs etc. I think the same can apply at a national level. If the money system means we're f**ked anyway, why not at least have some decent infrastructure and housing to show for it all.
  12. I'd recommend Interactive Brokers or Tastyworks, or both. https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php https://tastyworks.com Interactive Brokers is a more powerful platform, offering every stock, currency, option etc you might want in one account. Very reliable. The platform looks intimidating but worth sussing out.. you won't use 99% of the features. They have sterling based accounts, which means all reports are in sterling, though you can hold any mix of currencies. Cheap commissions. They're particularly good if you're trading options to hedge a stock portfolio as their t
  13. It depends on the broker. You can trade pretty much anything from the UK, but not all brokers offer access to every market. You can trade individual Japanese stocks in Interactive Brokers, though not through an ISA or SIPP. They're good for foreign instruments because you keep everything including long or short cash balances in any currency in the same account, making it easy to hedge out currency risk. Currency conversions are super cheap too, with 0.01 of a penny spreads.
  14. If you're bearish, you sell now, and then wait, hoping to buy back later at a lower price. If everybody is bearish, they all sell, and wait for a lower price. But once everybody has sold and is waiting, there's nobody left to sell, therefore no more downward pressure on prices. The market is now driven by buyers - either they shorted the stock and will need to buy it back at some point, or they're bargain hunters looking to open a position. So, once everyone is bearish, there's nobody left to sell, but plenty of buyers, so the price goes up.
  15. I've got some Blue Prism - Symbol PRSM. They do automated workflow software. Not quite AI and robotics but vaguely in the same area. I don't know much about them but they've done well over the last year, up around 400% It was a pretty random punt based on a magazine article so take that for what it's worth. Interested to hear what others are investing in.
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