When a HPC is not a crash?

[nothernsoul]

In parts of north manchester you can pick up a terrace in move in condition for less than 80 grand. Terrible road, rough area, wouldnt want to live there, only rental value would be to social tenants. However the point is you would never be able to get anywhere near as affordable 20 mins bus ride into central london, even the most crime ridden dump. The mean average incomes are not especially high, but as someone has already mentioned there is a shortage of desireable areas to live in the city so people pay a premium. 

[Democorruptcy]

10 hours ago, LiveinHope said:

The newbuild prices are way over the top, but they are selling. Older cheaper, more spacious properties are not.  Must all be HTB.

I see in your example that they focus on the bathroom tap. It always amuses me when a selling point of newbuilds are the style and make of kitchen and bathroom fittings. Never a focus on the type of tiles that are on the roof, the quality of the timber in the construction, the insulation used, the make of the windows, etc never a focus on anything that matters.....

Anecdotally I know of 2 buyers recently refused a mortgage on a non new build, told by a mortgage broker to go for a new build using Help to Buy Bail Banks because a mortgage with that wouldn't be a problem. Both now using the scheme to buy new builds with mortgages of a higher amount than that originally refused. Implying that lending standards are relaxed by bankers when our governbankment has again put taxpayers on the hook for 20% losses.

Freetrader's new build losers thread might need a larger boat. Who will be able to buy them when they are re-sold?

 

[StAlex]

11 hours ago, lostinessex said:

It does feel to me that there is a shift happening which isn't being reflected yet in the various official charts. Certainly where I'm looking - Chelmsford - which I read recently is the the top 5 cities for HPI over the last three years - I've been seeing a steady stream of reduced prices since pretty much the Brexit vote last year. That's not to say prices are coming down to sanity - but more people seem to be adding them with a big mark-up on last years going rates and they're not shifting. I think Rightmove only report on *iniital* asking price - so that would suggest to me that round my way the actual final asking price at the point of sale would be a fair few percentage points lower. Here's an example of a property which would have previously sold quickly - which has been reduced three times in the last couple of months:

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/42968616?search_identifier=1593a2ca1a7535a9932f0164c3515a4b#oqCJUHe0TqoHPOKy.97

Is it still overpriced? To my mind yes. Is the houseprice mania over though? Properties like this would suggest yes. It feels like we've hit a plateau.

Is that going to lead to a crash? Not sure - supply is incredibly low round my way. Streets where a few years back I'd see a constant churn of properties not rarely crop up in my searches. It feels like people (BTL investors probably) are sitting on their portfolios. I'd expected them them to be offloading by now - but I have a horrible feeling that won't happen now until they start doing their tax returns in 2018. Annoyingly still a long wait for me.

 

It's very similar up in Colchester and surrounding areas . Lots of new build shoeboxes priced at top whack- 500k and just under for 3/4 beds with a 90 min door to door commute to London. Wonderful quality of life! 

Keeping daily tabs on Rightmove and at least half the daily updates are reductions. Still overpriced though... 

From what I can see these aren't moving as quickly as the 'non newbuild ' houses. 

 

[Guest]

10 hours ago, AvoidDebt said:

Agree with the new build. The builders were given a HTB lifeline and have taken the absolute p*ss. 

Is this really 720k! It's the last stop on the jubilee line. 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/47600103

nearer watford that london FFS. 

[AvoidDebt]

11 hours ago, Kiwi_Muncher said:

nearer watford that london FFS. 

Unbelievable isn't it? There's a wide held belief that the country views houses as investments but how can anyone seriously believe that they will exit positive buying new builds at these prices. I'd be willing to bet my life that there's isn't a single estate agent in the country buying at this stage in the bubble. It's all just a polite scam to pull in the last of the unsuspecting fools. In fact I've spoken to sympathetic estate agents not far from this development, one last week and he said 40% down within five years. The hyperinflation one year before collapse is a mirror image of the Northern Ireland story. 

[Smith]

Where I live the average income is £26k and the average price of a home £640k. That's all homes not just houses. It's going to take a lot more than stagnation, adjustment etc. here. What we need is a crash.

[LC1]

16 hours ago, Venger said:

Charlton = Chorlton you mean?

Bloody autocorrect! 

Interesting post, thanks.

[winkie]

13 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Anecdotally I know of 2 buyers recently refused a mortgage on a non new build, told by a mortgage broker to go for a new build using Help to Buy Bail Banks because a mortgage with that wouldn't be a problem. Both now using the scheme to buy new builds with mortgages of a higher amount than that originally refused. Implying that lending standards are relaxed by bankers when our governbankment has again put taxpayers on the hook for 20% losses.

Freetrader's new build losers thread might need a larger boat. Who will be able to buy them when they are re-sold?

 

Not forgetting a new build is only a newbuild once.....Who will then wish to purchase a secondhand compact often poor build quality newbuild at big prices?

[LC1]

9 minutes ago, winkie said:

Not forgetting a new build is only a newbuild once.....Who will then wish to purchase a secondhand compact often poor build quality newbuild at big prices?

+1

Old houses have stood the test of time.

[Venger]

 

On 3/30/2017 at 1:50 PM, LC1 said:

I thinks that's exactly it. I've not lived here long (not part of the SE exodus) but I can see that there's a few good areas that are very geographically constrained, Didsbury, Charlton, Heatons, and that these are just way out of whack with the rest of Manchester. A lot of BTL too, from what I can tell. 

Perhaps Venger or others might have some better insights into the dynamics in this part of the world...

 

On 3/30/2017 at 4:47 PM, Venger said:

Charlton = Chorlton you mean?

I don't know that area very well (apart from a few trips to Horse & Jockey pub and beer on the big green outside.. way back).  There's a couple of other HPCers who know Chorlton really well, including a long-term homeowner who would welcome a big HPC.  Has younger people in mind.  

 

7 hours ago, LC1 said:

Bloody autocorrect! 

It's a bit unfair of me to Chorlton, for this is just a made-up fantasy television drama storyline (set in 1973) that could have been set just about any of the nicer parts of Manchester,  but it always lingers in my memory. 

... 'my father thought he was lucky with a semi-detached an a packet of woodbines.... but I want more out of life than that."

Near impossible dream now for the semi-detached in Chorlton (for many a senior professional worker), in part thanks to the more-more/BTL etc.

Know of a couple who bought a terrace couple of years back for nearing £300K.  Both mid-30s professional couple.

 

[winkie]

 

[Venger]

11 minutes ago, winkie said:

Santana

Very very good winkie!

Impressive episode memory!! 

It's like that moment you're at a gathering and give the impression you're against foreverHPI.

 

[MARTINX9]

On 30 March 2017 at 9:24 AM, AvoidDebt said:

Agree with the new build. The builders were given a HTB lifeline and have taken the absolute p*ss. 

Is this really 720k! It's the last stop on the jubilee line. 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/47600103

£720k in Stanmire for a two bed flat - and you even have to pay extra for a parking space?

There will be a residents gym though so perhaps it's worth it. I expect the extra cost on the service charge will be more expensive per month than joining David Lloyd or Virgin active where you would get a pool, towel and more.p

 

[Barnsey]

We have a winner! Unbelievable!

[crashmonitor]

On Thursday, March 30, 2017 at 8:00 AM, WinstonSmith said:

Based on my knowledge of the house market in my part of the northeast over the last three years (two bed terraces from 95 - 70k, three bed detached from 135 - 100k) I'm wondering if we're not all guilty of looking to the heavens for a sign when in fact there's a bloody great big one right in front of our eyes.

 

I know it's not a revolutionary thought as it's been covered on here before, but a "crash" implies a sudden occurrence, when what may in fact be happening is regional and gradual.

 

I'd be interested to read any other thoughts on this.

According to zoopla a  neighbouring house  which sold for 270k in October 2006 is worth 296k today. That's less than 1% per annum over 11 years. The Peak District has had a slow correction, bearing in mind retail prices have gone up a third since 2006.

Over the last year zoopla comes up with a fall of 1% for the area. This is a wealthy well heeled part of the Midlands with virtually zero unemployment.

Seems ironic we describe the last decade as a boom. No it has been a correction for most of the country. Every decade from 1966 to 2006 prices tripled and then they stood still for the last ten.

Edited April 1, 2017 by crashmonitor

[giggler000]

On 30/03/2017 at 8:00 AM, WinstonSmith said:

Based on my knowledge of the house market in my part of the northeast over the last three years (two bed terraces from 95 - 70k, three bed detached from 135 - 100k) I'm wondering if we're not all guilty of looking to the heavens for a sign when in fact there's a bloody great big one right in front of our eyes.

 

I know it's not a revolutionary thought as it's been covered on here before, but a "crash" implies a sudden occurrence, when what may in fact be happening is regional and gradual.

 

I'd be interested to read any other thoughts on this.

When the money printers of the likes of BoE's Andrew Haldane diss's pensions and savings, suggesting investing in housing you gotta wonder how engineered this thing is and when it goes, what goes with it?  I'd of thought if there really was a crash it would affect more than just a few 10's of k off current pricing IMHO