Turn! Turn! Turn! (To Everything There Is a Season)

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

But to stop it would mean removing £6bn from the economy, at the root level.  That's simply my only point.

This isn't like cutting a tax break, which sees the government get the money, this money, literally, floods right into the economy, all of it.  Nothing is saved, very little goes abroad, most goes straight into businesses.

To drop it overnight would be the tip the economy needed over the edge for what we want, which is why I can't see TPTB doing it.

Woo there.

EEers claim billions in tax credits. 

60% goes back to the home country.

[disenfranchised]

Modern capitalism is a snake eating it's own tail, but the extension of credit just keeps extending that tail.

Outsourcing, offshoring, zero hours, automation, minimum wage - gradually destroys the consumer base which used to have the money to buy these goods & services.

Only by giving them benefits & cheap credit can they afford anything - and the benefits are paid for with National debt  cheap credit.

Look at most 'developing' countries and there is huge under employment. Just watch the process of manual labour in those countries and you'll see it. Each person has a task, but each task is only done 20-60% of the time. In his mini-series "our guy in..." Guy Martin noted that Indian brick layers do 100 blocks a day, not including transporting the blocks. An English brick layer working with a labourer to get the blocks does 500 a day. The labouring classes in a lot of developing nations have turned idleness into an art form - they won't earn a decent reward for doing a good job so why try harder? The English are heading the same way. All these Economists scratch their head about stagnant productivity but the answer is simple for me. The rewards and incentives for hard work have been removed. Why try harder?

 

[slawek]

13 hours ago, spyguy said:

Woo there.

EEers claim billions in tax credits. 

60% goes back to the home country.

Most likely EEs claim 0.5-1bln in tax credit. Most of the money stays in the UK. 

[cognitive dissonance]

33 minutes ago, slawek said:

Most likely EEs claim 0.5-1bln in tax credit. Most of the money stays in the UK. 

Wow all that money for the 'sharing economy', no wonder uber, airbnb et al are doing so well 

[winkie]

If they double the amount of money in the system via debt and printing what used to cost one wigget now costs two......So double the wages will not make anyone better off just more worse off and a few very much better off......They want people to work harder earning more, borrowing and spending more......When it may well be better to work less, do not get into debt or repay debt quickly and spend less....

Like all things debt often never will get repaid, paid but not repeated ..... Fraud loss in finance is the same risk calculated into figs as defaults......

[spyguy]

1 hour ago, slawek said:

Most likely EEs claim 0.5-1bln in tax credit. Most of the money stays in the UK. 

Id call balls on that.

Offically theres ~3m Euers inthe UK.

Id guess 2m are claiming tax credits/CB/HB.

Even at a low ball 100-/month I make that ~ 2 billion.

30%-50% gets sent home.

This is waaaay out of date:

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/288

' Child benefit paid to 40,171 children living overseas costs the taxpayer £36.6 million per year and child tax credit costs £18.6 million per year. Therefore the combined payments amount to over £55 million per year or £1 million per week.'

 

 

[slawek]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Id call balls on that.

Offically theres ~3m Euers inthe UK.

Id guess 2m are claiming tax credits/CB/HB.

Even at a low ball 100-/month I make that ~ 2 billion.

30%-50% gets sent home.

This is waaaay out of date:

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/288

' Child benefit paid to 40,171 children living overseas costs the taxpayer £36.6 million per year and child tax credit costs £18.6 million per year. Therefore the combined payments amount to over £55 million per year or £1 million per week.'

 

 

1.7 bln per year has been spent on tax credits for families where at least one person was an EU national at NI registration/arrival. This number include all EU countries (your claim was about EEs), mixed families and people who has been living in the UK tens of years.  

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/502183/HM_REVENUE_AND_CUSTOMS_-_Ad_Hoc_Stats_Release_-_EEA_Nationals_TC_Entitlement.pdf

People who receive tax credits are not rich, have UK costs of living and can't afford sending abroad half of the money they receive.

Child benefit awards for children living in the EU dropped from 30k (2009) to 20k (2015). Assuming 3k/year per claim that is 60 mln/year.  EEs are probably 40-50mln.  

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7445

[HairyOb1]

On 3/18/2017 at 8:34 PM, spyguy said:

Woo there.

EEers claim billions in tax credits. 

60% goes back to the home country.

Completely made up, and even below you change your mind up.

On 3/19/2017 at 11:42 AM, spyguy said:

Id call balls on that.

Offically theres ~3m Euers inthe UK.

Id guess 2m are claiming tax credits/CB/HB.

Even at a low ball 100-/month I make that ~ 2 billion.

30%-50% gets sent home.

This is waaaay out of date:

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/288

' Child benefit paid to 40,171 children living overseas costs the taxpayer £36.6 million per year and child tax credit costs £18.6 million per year. Therefore the combined payments amount to over £55 million per year or £1 million per week.'

 

 

As soon as you use the term I'd guess, then you're speculating.  I have dealings with 3 EU families professionally.  A Romanian Family, Dutch/Pole family and Slovenian family.  None claim any benefits, they all earn over £60k.

None send money home, as they can't afford to.

What you're saying is folk live in one of the EU's most expensive countries, and on benefits which are not high, sorry, but £30k benefits, for a family of 4 children (which is what you'd need to be able to get £30k), are not going to be living it large on £30k, not enough to send between 10 to 20k home, according to your figures.  I simply don't believe it is actually possible, to be able to feed and house a family for that amount.

There's also a limit, of £23k in London, £20k elsewhere to benefits.  New claimants can't claim for more than 2 children.

So unless they've worked out how to live on thin air, they aren't sending 10-20k home....

[spyguy]

18 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Completely made up, and even below you change your mind up.

As soon as you use the term I'd guess, then you're speculating.  I have dealings with 3 EU families professionally.  A Romanian Family, Dutch/Pole family and Slovenian family.  None claim any benefits, they all earn over £60k.

None send money home, as they can't afford to.

What you're saying is folk live in one of the EU's most expensive countries, and on benefits which are not high, sorry, but £30k benefits, for a family of 4 children (which is what you'd need to be able to get £30k), are not going to be living it large on £30k, not enough to send between 10 to 20k home, according to your figures.  I simply don't believe it is actually possible, to be able to feed and house a family for that amount.

There's also a limit, of £23k in London, £20k elsewhere to benefits.  New claimants can't claim for more than 2 children.

So unless they've worked out how to live on thin air, they aren't sending 10-20k home....

Only if they dont work.

Do your 16h and whole lot is available to you.

[spyguy]

Its hard to get figures, on non UK nationals claiming and how they claim.

Article from telwag, 3 years old, so very out of date:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10999434/Migrants-working-in-Britain-claim-5-billion-a-year-in-tax-credits-figures-show.html

'Foreign nationals make up 17 per cent of Britain's 2.45 million child tax credit claimants, figures from HMRC show'

[Blod]

1 hour ago, HairyOb1 said:

Completely made up, and even below you change your mind up.

As soon as you use the term I'd guess, then you're speculating.  I have dealings with 3 EU families professionally.  A Romanian Family, Dutch/Pole family and Slovenian family.  None claim any benefits, they all earn over £60k.

None send money home, as they can't afford to.

What you're saying is folk live in one of the EU's most expensive countries, and on benefits which are not high, sorry, but £30k benefits, for a family of 4 children (which is what you'd need to be able to get £30k), are not going to be living it large on £30k, not enough to send between 10 to 20k home, according to your figures.  I simply don't believe it is actually possible, to be able to feed and house a family for that amount.

There's also a limit, of £23k in London, £20k elsewhere to benefits.  New claimants can't claim for more than 2 children.

So unless they've worked out how to live on thin air, they aren't sending 10-20k home....

Sorry your premise is based on only three families. Furthermore statistically they are an exception in respect of their earnings.

[Blod]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Only if they dont work.

Do your 16h and whole lot is available to you.

Sadly I know of people claiming 16 and then actually doing three times that.

[spyguy]

4 minutes ago, Blod said:

Sadly I know of people claiming 16 and then actually doing three times that.

Well yes.

I you are looking to max your income then you claim 16h work and take the other 22h as cash in hand.

Its such an obvious scam that you wonder why Brown did not spot it, in his rush to get everyone to vote for him.

[spyguy]

2 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

Completely made up, and even below you change your mind up.

As soon as you use the term I'd guess, then you're speculating.  I have dealings with 3 EU families professionally.  A Romanian Family, Dutch/Pole family and Slovenian family.  None claim any benefits, they all earn over £60k.

None send money home, as they can't afford to.

What you're saying is folk live in one of the EU's most expensive countries, and on benefits which are not high, sorry, but £30k benefits, for a family of 4 children (which is what you'd need to be able to get £30k), are not going to be living it large on £30k, not enough to send between 10 to 20k home, according to your figures.  I simply don't believe it is actually possible, to be able to feed and house a family for that amount.

There's also a limit, of £23k in London, £20k elsewhere to benefits.  New claimants can't claim for more than 2 children.

So unless they've worked out how to live on thin air, they aren't sending 10-20k home....

You also assuem that the kids are in the UK and are no made up, or 'borrowed'.

Id guess the Roma make a racket passing the same kids around for the extra money.

Again, who checks the ids exist?

[slawek]

3 hours ago, spyguy said:

Its hard to get figures, on non UK nationals claiming and how they claim.

Article from telwag, 3 years old, so very out of date:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10999434/Migrants-working-in-Britain-claim-5-billion-a-year-in-tax-credits-figures-show.html

'Foreign nationals make up 17 per cent of Britain's 2.45 million child tax credit claimants, figures from HMRC show'

17% is for both EU and non-EU, you were claiming billions for EEs only. EU are around 7%, EEs are probably half of that.

Below are data from the link I posted before. 

 

[iamnumerate]

49 minutes ago, slawek said:

17% is for both EU and non-EU, you were claiming billions for EEs only. EU are around 7%, EEs are probably half of that.

Below are data from the link I posted before. 

 

I would love to see the workings out behind these data.  Do they really know what country everyone came from when they got a NI number?  If so why not give more detailed figures like Poles pay £x and get £y in benefits.

Of course I thought that all immigrants are hard working brain surgeons - why do they need benefits?

[spyguy]

2 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

I would love to see the workings out behind these data.  Do they really know what country everyone came from when they got a NI number?  If so why not give more detailed figures like Poles pay £x and get £y in benefits.

Of course I thought that all immigrants are hard working brain surgeons - why do they need benefits?

My problem is the data is for 2014.

There was a notable up tick in the number of EU migrants over last summer.

UKGOV has been very slow and evasive about non national benefit payments.

IMHO non-Nationals  should be getting nothing. zilch.

 

[slawek]

25 minutes ago, spyguy said:

My problem is the data is for 2014.

There was a notable up tick in the number of EU migrants over last summer.

UKGOV has been very slow and evasive about non national benefit payments.

IMHO non-Nationals  should be getting nothing. zilch.

 

I don't see any uptick over last summer.

The number of tax credits paid to EUs doesn't change much. Between 2013 and 2014 it has increased from 302k to 313k with net migration 174k in 2014. 

I think both non-national and national should get nothing. The employers should pay decent wages instead.  

[spyguy]

8 hours ago, slawek said:

I don't see any uptick over last summer.

The number of tax credits paid to EUs doesn't change much. Between 2013 and 2014 it has increased from 302k to 313k with net migration 174k in 2014. 

I think both non-national and national should get nothing. The employers should pay decent wages instead.  

Im with you on that.

It all needs rolling back.

Start is non nationals, which will remove the upward pressure on housing and downward pressure on wages.

[spyguy]

As far as an uptick.

Im seeing about twice the number of EErs in the kids park.

DItto for Tescos. I can be the only Brit in both places soon.

Number of EE kids at my partners school has tripled over the last 3 years. There was big increase last September.

[slawek]

2 hours ago, spyguy said:

Im with you on that.

It all needs rolling back.

Start is non nationals, which will remove the upward pressure on housing and downward pressure on wages.

The problem is how to do this. Either wait until the standard of living levels across the globe or make the UK like North Korea (close borders for people, capital, goods and services).

I disagree about using nationality as a drawing line, don't believe a place of birth should entitle or not to something. I prefer using a criterion of decency.

Migration to the UK is insignificant as a contributor to high house prices and low wages.  

As for your perception of uptick I hear in my local area about EUs leaving. 

[iamnumerate]

9 minutes ago, slawek said:

Migration to the UK is insignificant as a contributor to high house prices

I used to work with 2 BTL landlords who were both the children of immigrants, when I said to them "Are you sure that it is a good investment" they both said "yes house prices are going to go up because of immigration".*

I used to live in an awful flat and I wanted to move up the chain - I rented out rooms - all the lodgers were immigrants ** and with the money I could afford to move up the chain - I certainly would not have been able to pay the inflated price without immigrants paying me rent.  (Of course without immigrants I would have to had pay a lot less for my house so I certainly didn't benefit from their presence).

 

*This was in 2006-2007 - so they were right.

**I would have rented to someone English but there wasn't anyone.

 

Of course I don't blame immigrants for prices going up, the people who let them without letting people build more houses and/or changing the benefit system are to blame.  If I were on a boat that capsized because of too many passengers I would blame the criminals who sold too many tickets.

Edited March 21, 2017 by iamnumerate

[HairyOb1]

11 hours ago, slawek said:

I don't see any uptick over last summer.

The number of tax credits paid to EUs doesn't change much. Between 2013 and 2014 it has increased from 302k to 313k with net migration 174k in 2014. 

I think both non-national and national should get nothing. The employers should pay decent wages instead.  

I know, the figures being touted are troubling in that they are completely made up.

2 hours ago, spyguy said:

As far as an uptick.

Im seeing about twice the number of EErs in the kids park.

DItto for Tescos. I can be the only Brit in both places soon.

Number of EE kids at my partners school has tripled over the last 3 years. There was big increase last September.

I am not, at the local school we have 2 EE families, one Pole/Uk, one Pole/Pole.  In the middle school none that I am aware of, or that my kids are aware of, more in the Upper school.

I think it's disingenuous to continue saying they're sending huge amounts home as I believe it close to impossible.  Do your own sums and tell me how much you think a family needs to earn to survive and send 30-60% (your figures remember) somewhere else.  If you thinkon £40k you can save between 13-23k, then tell me how and I'll be all over it.

It's terrible scaremongering of the likes BoJo, Gove and Farage would be pleased with

[HairyOb1]

10 minutes ago, slawek said:

The problem is how to do this. Either wait until the standard of living levels across the globe or make the UK like North Korea (close borders for people, capital, goods and services).

I disagree about using nationality as a drawing line, don't believe a place of birth should entitle or not to something. I prefer using a criterion of decency.

Migration to the UK is insignificant as a contributor to high house prices and low wages.  

As for your perception of uptick I hear in my local area about EUs leaving. 

That's the whole raison d'etre of the EU - Equivalence.  Not many people would be economic migrants if they didn't need to be.  

In the 80’s I went abroad to work, as did many others, as there was not much work outside of YTS or very badly paid factory work where I come from.  One of my best friends from school still lives in Germany where he went in 84 as a bricklayer and is now an IT manager with Siemens; the Germans offered him free training as they needed more IT people and less brickies in the late 80s.  He’s now lived in Germany longer than he did in the UK.  You’re only an economic migrant if you’re forced to be one.

Once home economy’s become stronger, as they have, people go home, or they stay and integrate.

I also don’t subscribe to the lottery of birth and feel we should have open borders.

The Dutch/Pole couple are leaving.  Her kids, who were all born here, and actually sound like West Country kids, are being bullied at school.

[slawek]

5 minutes ago, iamnumerate said:

I used to work with 2 BTL landlords who were both the children of immigrants, when I said to them "Are you sure that it is a good investment" they both said "yes house prices are going to go up because of immigration".*

I used to live in an awful flat and I wanted to move up the chain - I rented out rooms - all the lodgers were immigrants ** and with the money I could afford to move up the chain - I certainly would not have been able to pay the inflated price without immigrants paying me rent.  (Of course without immigrants I would have to had pay a lot less for my house so I certainly didn't benefit from their presence).

 

*This was in 2006-2007 - so they were right.

**I would have rented to someone English but there wasn't anyone.

Anecdotal evidence doesn't prove anything.

The house prices began to rise in late 1990 before the increase of immigration from the UK in 2004.

The number of new houses built is enough for the population increase.  

It is just greed, greed, greed.