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spyguy

Turn! Turn! Turn! (To Everything There Is a Season)

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Wages and job growth in the US:

https://www.ft.com/content/ec0d7d1a-0594-11e7-aa5b-6bb07f5c8e12

Personally, I thin the US is about 18 months and 1.5% behind. But Im not the FED chairman. Or American. Im sure they know what they are doing ...

Mario declares victory againgst deflation (that never really was)

https://www.ft.com/content/7f1c25b0-04bf-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

*cough* business cycle *cough cough*

EU + BOE achieved nothign by lowering rates. Just locked up money in asset prices. Stupid fckers.

Which brings us to the UK.

How long can a country with a 6% budget deficit and 7% current account deficit hold rates below the US?

The fall in the pound achieved nothing for the UK economy. Its a trickthat just does not work anymore.

 

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Someone please by my house.

I'd like to get off now please driver...

Driver.........

 

PS: On Twitter KB is getting excited about a Euro rally soon.

Edited by shindigger

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3 hours ago, spyguy said:

10Y Treasuries yield 2.57%

Latest from St Louis FED is 2.6%. However, it's hard to say it looks like a convincing turn in the credit markets just yet (certainly no more convincing than summer of 2007, and 10 year treasuries fell a lot from that point in subsequent years. If it hits 3.5%, I'll start getting excited. If it reaches 3%, I might check there's space in the fridge for a wine bottle.

T_bill_10y.png

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17 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

In the US an interest rate rise appears an almost certainty :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39235107

whereas back in the UK, no one could possibly foresee what's going to happen :

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4303272/British-drivers-borrow-32B-buy-two-million-new-cars.html

The UK took the neo-liberal "dream" too far: mass immigration, huge welfare state, ZIRP to fund it all.  It will - and is - ending in tears.

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8 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

The UK took the neo-liberal "dream" too far: mass immigration, huge welfare state, ZIRP to fund it all.  It will - and is - ending in tears.

Forty years of Thatcherite ******** about the 'free' market and still we're being force-fed with the same spoon.

 

article1475517828.png

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43 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

In the US an interest rate rise appears an almost certainty :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39235107

whereas back in the UK, no one could possibly foresee what's going to happen :

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4303272/British-drivers-borrow-32B-buy-two-million-new-cars.html

 

I don't remember reading a Mail article recently, as I don't expect much from them. However, I clicked on this one, and was surprised to find a decent "warnings from history" criticism of the current credit expansion. Is this typical for their finance reporting now? If so, that's an interesting message to be pumping into the major veins of mainstream culture.

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9 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Forty years of Thatcherite ******** about the 'free' market and still we're being force-fed with the same spoon.

 

article1475517828.png

Maybe the electorate handed her a scapegoat - you don't look a gift horse in the mouth

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42 minutes ago, LiveinHope said:

Maybe the electorate handed her a scapegoat - you don't look a gift horse in the mouth

Same as Trump is a scapegoat.  Probably waiting for Wilders and Le Pen to gain power, and THEN they can crash the system.

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4 hours ago, doomed said:

We had a crisis caused by a credit binge that they have tried to solve with an even greater credit binge. It is insanity.

Yeah but I've bought a house right and it's going up right so I deserve my new car right and I'm off to Marbs, so it will all be alright in the end, gotta be positive ain't ya.

(It's stupidity).

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3 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Same as Trump is a scapegoat.  Probably waiting for Wilders and Le Pen to gain power, and THEN they can crash the system.

I think most people are clued up about our financial banking overlords.

Trump/Wilders/Le Pen are just the start of a 30 year movement to reverse the trends of the last 40 years (social liberalism, mass immigration, financialisation, instant gratification culture). If the system crashes, people will blame the banksters, and move even further to populist parties.

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9 hours ago, j666 said:

It's 1994 Again: Why Albert Edwards Expects An Imminent "Bond Market Bloodbath"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-09/albert-edwards-next-week-fed-will-unleash-bond-market-bloodbath

My thinking of where we are is that there a large number of FED memmber who reckon that low rates have gone on too long and casued too much damage.

Obama provided coer for the hand wringers/insiders.

Trump gives cover so they can change and let Trump carry the can - they think.

I dont reckon rates will go high but I do reckon they will rise quite a bit. The US economy isvery different from the UKs - it really is on fire.

If a small bit of Trump 'bring jobs back' suceeds - and I dont think Trump is wholley wrong on this; the US has sacrigiced its low + mediaum earners for the good of Wall Street abd China - then the labour market will tighten even more.

Where does it he leave the UK? In a total mess.

The number of people working FT in the private sector is really - all tax credits and public sector.

The private and public debt levels are way too high.

The fall inthe pound has done limited for out exports - the UK cost go down, the imported costs go up, net result - not much change.

And the UK is carrying a lot ore public debt than the US. Id love to be in the UK debt office for all this.

Fum times ahead.

 

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If rates do rise rapidly in the US this year (4 rises) how is this likely to play out in the UK? What impact does Carney's Term Funding Scheme have on proceedings, if any?

I'd love to share the optimism that this might be the turning point for cheaper houses and better rates for savers (margin calls on the over leveraged please), but I don't want to get my hopes up just yet...

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28 minutes ago, LC1 said:

If rates do rise rapidly in the US this year (4 rises) how is this likely to play out in the UK? What impact does Carney's Term Funding Scheme have on proceedings, if any?

I'd love to share the optimism that this might be the turning point for cheaper houses and better rates for savers (margin calls on the over leveraged please), but I don't want to get my hopes up just yet...

Carney has already said he is willing to look through some Brexit-induced inflation as a result of the £ falling in value. Last time QE was in full swing, five-ish years ago, inflation peaked at 5% and the MPC didn't blink on IRs. IIRC, three of nine members did vote for a rise though.

My prediction is that if inflation stays more than 5% for a calendar quarter, there will be growing pressure to raise IRs. Carney has one vote of nine. Judging by energy price rises announced recently, council tax hikes etc, there is a shedload of inflation in the pipeline IMO - and that's before any more potential US raises.

It's a shame that until then, all the population has to pay higher prices so that the minority of UK adults which have a mortgage can be protected.

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57 minutes ago, rantnrave said:

It's a shame that until then, all the population has to pay higher prices so that the minority of UK adults which have a mortgage can be protected.

Yes. I know his past form, I guess my question could more accurately have been whether circumstances are equally conducive to BoE maintaining control as they were then?

Is US rate rising potentially sufficient as a black swan, or at least a first domino, to really start the ball rolling back towards more normal rates and lower asset prices in the UK, or does Carney have it covered by his bag of (evil) tricks to keep plates spinning for yet another (lost) decade?

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3 hours ago, LC1 said:

Is US rate rising potentially sufficient as a black swan, or at least a first domino, to really start the ball rolling back towards more normal rates and lower asset prices in the UK, or does Carney have it covered by his bag of (evil) tricks to keep plates spinning for yet another (lost) decade?

Can't help with an answer but would love it if the FED does keep raising rates and the BOE have to follow eventually. I understand if FED keeps raising the dollar becomes stronger against the pound so we get inflation but is any other problems this causes us so we have to raise as well?

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1 hour ago, kidgorgeous said:

Can't help with an answer but would love it if the FED does keep raising rates and the BOE have to follow eventually. I understand if FED keeps raising the dollar becomes stronger against the pound so we get inflation but is any other problems this causes us so we have to raise as well?

Competing for bond investors.

Despite the claims, theres not much money out there.

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