Turn! Turn! Turn! (To Everything There Is a Season)

[iamnumerate]

To go back to the original, like Mark Carney I don't what the answer to this is

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How long can a country with a 6% budget deficit and 7% current account deficit hold rates below the US?

The fall in the pound achieved nothing for the UK economy. Its a trickthat just does not work anymore.

But I guess it will be as long as they can - hoping they can pass the parcel on to someone else.

[billybong]

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Quote

 

How long can a country with a 6% budget deficit and 7% current account deficit hold rates below the US?

The fall in the pound achieved nothing for the UK economy. Its a trickthat just does not work anymore.

 

The question seems to get to the nub of matters.  Presumably it depends to some extent on the investment flows trying to capture better rates of return - but Carney can always print money to mitigate that while inflation is low.  

Although inflation has been picking up quite a bit recently.

[Venger]

5 hours ago, HairyOb1 said:

I think if you have ties to an area you shouldn't be forced out against your will.

You're forcing a migration - Imagine someone who's lived and worked in London for 30 years, loses his house and has to get social housing and they say we've got a flat in Hull.  Fair?  No, not at all.  I think anything like that is a bit too Orwellian for me

 

What if you want to move to an area but are badly priced out?   That's my story, so I don't buy and rent on edge of area I would like to live in.  Boo-hoo.

There are some disconnects in there.   Loses his house?

How old is he?   How did he lose his house?  Homeowner or renter?   You don't mention any kids.   Does he work to help pay his future way in London.  Has he got savings.

Life isn't fair.  There is no absolute right for free/paid housing in any area.

There was a guy on HPC in 2012/13 who lost his job and he began a thread how homeowners get no help (!).   As I remember it his place was worth a lot and he did not want to downsize or move out of the area, and he really went on a rant about it, despite being worth fortunes.   Something similar on MSE as well.  Loved his apartment.

Moving area is not the end of the world.  And it's only for those who can't pay their way, although admittedly that can be harder for some in housing financialisation.

[HairyOb1]

2 minutes ago, billybong said:

.

The question seems to get to the nub of matters.  Presumably it depends to some extent on the investment flows trying to capture better rates of return - but Carney can always print money to mitigate that while inflation is low.  

Although inflation has been picking up quite a bit recently.

I think 3% inflation sounds ambitious, to be honest.  I think price rises will start going much higher, as foreign owned conglomerates feel their profit margin shrink as sterling devalues more in the upcoming days.  It currently feels like a lot more than 3% inflation is going on now, so if Art50 is triggered and the pound devalues a further 3, 5%, we might start seeing more.
 

It would actually make me laugh as the market would struggle with a rate rise, especially given inflation has overtaken wage growth, but their hands might get forced if it goes to 4% and beyond.

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, Venger said:

 

What if you want to move to an area but are badly priced out?   That's my story, so I don't buy and rent on edge of area I would like to live in.  Boo-hoo.

There are some disconnects in there.   Loses his house?

How old is he?   How did he lose his house?  Homeowner or renter?   You don't mention any kids.   Does he work to help pay his future way in London.  Has he got savings.

Life isn't fair.  There is no absolute right for free/paid housing in any area.

There was a guy on HPC in 2012/13 who lost his job and he began a thread how homeowners get no help (!).   As I remember it his place was worth a lot and he did not want to downsize or move out of the area, and he really went on a rant about it, despite being worth fortunes.   Something similar on MSE as well.  Loved his apartment.

Moving area is not the end of the world.  And it's only for those who can't pay their way, although admittedly that can be harder for some in housing financialisation.

Again, very happy to disagree.  What was being proposed was HMO for single mothers and people forced to move from accommodation that were already in, if they were unemployed.

I'd be very careful about setting precedents....

[iamnumerate]

7 minutes ago, Venger said:

 

What if you want to move to an area but are badly priced out?   That's my story, so I don't buy and rent on edge of area I would like to live in.  Boo-hoo.

 

Life isn't fair.  There is no absolute right for free/paid housing in any area.

There was a guy on HPC in 2012/13 who lost his job and he began a thread how homeowners get no help (!).   As I remember it his place was worth a lot and he did not want to downsize or move out of the area, and he really went on a rant about it, despite being worth fortunes.   Something similar on MSE as well.  Loved his apartment.

Moving area is not the end of the world.  And it's only for those who can't pay their way, although admittedly that can be harder for some in housing financialisation.

I agree

[CunningPlan]

1 minute ago, HairyOb1 said:

Again, very happy to disagree.  What was being proposed was HMO for single mothers and people forced to move from accommodation that were already in, if they were unemployed.

I'd be very careful about setting precedents....

I think asking single mothers to share is a great plan. 

For a start, we all know that four people can live together for less per head than 2 x 2 units.

From the mother's point of view, they get companionship, a chance to share chores, babysitting duties, perhaps they could both work part time and share childcare? Cooking for 4 or more is much more efficient in both time and cost, hence healthier food may be possible. 

Different influences and ideas from a second 'mother' would be good for the kids. 

I see this as a win for both society and the mums / kids

I really don't see a problem with it. Anyone that has watched any of the benefits type programmes will have seen that they spend a large part of their time in each others houses anyway. 

 

[iamnumerate]

6 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Again, very happy to disagree.  What was being proposed was HMO for single mothers and people forced to move from accommodation that were already in, if they were unemployed.

I'd be very careful about setting precedents....

If you have a mortgage and you lose your job and don't get another one you often have to move, that precedent has been set..

Saying that I would be happy to drop the HMO for single mums, just make them move somewhere cheaper if that makes it more acceptable (still more generous than Spain etc).

I like consensus and fear we will get extremism if we don't get it.  Maybe one day my views on single mums will look very liberal.

[iamnumerate]

5 minutes ago, CunningPlan said:

I really don't see a problem with it. Anyone that has watched any of the benefits type programmes will have seen that they spend a large part of their time in each others houses anyway. 

 

My ex pro single mum neighbour used to spend a lot of time in my house.

Good points, it would save on heating as well.

[billybong]

2 hours ago, CunningPlan said:

I think asking single mothers to share is a great plan. 

For a start, we all know that four people can live together for less per head than 2 x 2 units.

From the mother's point of view, they get companionship, a chance to share chores, babysitting duties, perhaps they could both work part time and share childcare? Cooking for 4 or more is much more efficient in both time and cost, hence healthier food may be possible. 

Different influences and ideas from a second 'mother' would be good for the kids. 

I see this as a win for both society and the mums / kids

I really don't see a problem with it. Anyone that has watched any of the benefits type programmes will have seen that they spend a large part of their time in each others houses anyway. 

 

An often used expression in the olden days used to be Two can live cheaper than one.  

Often used when considering marriage - as I said, in the olden days.

[Habeas Domus]

On 21/03/2017 at 9:18 AM, HairyOb1 said:

I know, the figures being touted are troubling in that they are completely made up.

I am not, at the local school we have 2 EE families, one Pole/Uk, one Pole/Pole.  In the middle school none that I am aware of, or that my kids are aware of, more in the Upper school.

I think it's disingenuous to continue saying they're sending huge amounts home as I believe it close to impossible.  Do your own sums and tell me how much you think a family needs to earn to survive and send 30-60% (your figures remember) somewhere else.  If you thinkon £40k you can save between 13-23k, then tell me how and I'll be all over it.

It's terrible scaremongering of the likes BoJo, Gove and Farage would be pleased with

from Wiki for Nigeria:

According to the International Organization for Migration, Nigeria witnessed a dramatic increase in remittances sent home from overseas Nigerians, going from USD 2.3 billion in 2004 to 17.9 billion in 2007, representing 6.7% of GDP. The United States accounts for the largest portion of official remittances, followed by the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, Spain and France.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nigeria#Overseas_remittances

So thats roughly equivalent to 10% of the population living abroad and sending home $1100 per year

Those amounts of money make a real difference to 3rd world countries, but the effect on countries like Poland will be far less.

[billybong]

So what are the accurate figures?

The wikipedia link below says more than 2 million in both the US and UK.

2 million in the UK - is that correct?

 

Quote

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nigeria#Overseas_remittances

Overseas remittances

A major source of foreign exchange earnings for Nigeria are remittances sent home by Nigerians living abroad. In 2014, 17.5 million Nigerians lived in foreign countries, with the UK and the USA having more than 2 million Nigerians each.

According to the International Organization for Migration, Nigeria witnessed a dramatic increase in remittances sent home from overseas Nigerians, going from USD 2.3 billion in 2004 to 17.9 billion in 2007, representing 6.7% of GDP. The United States accounts for the largest portion of official remittances, followed by the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, Spain and France. On the African continent, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Libya and South Africa are important source countries of remittance flows to Nigeria, while China is the biggest remittance-sending country in Asia.

 

My highlight.

However the wikipedia link below says 216,268 in the UK  (2015).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign-born_population_of_the_United_Kingdom

The link below says 300,000 in the US in 2016.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2016/06/300000-nigerians-currently-living-us-envoy/

The GDPs of Poland and Nigeria are similar at about 500 billion US dollars

https://www.google.co.uk/search?client=opera&q=poland+gdp&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

https://www.google.co.uk/search?client=opera&q=nigerian+gdp&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

and the population of Nigeria is more than 4 times that of Poland (about 180 million v about 38 million)

https://www.google.co.uk/search?client=opera&q=poland+population+2016&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

https://www.google.co.uk/search?client=opera&q=nigerian+population+in+uk+2016&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8#q=nigerian+population+2016&*

There are about 700,000 Polish people in the UK (2015) according to the link below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign-born_population_of_the_United_Kingdom

If (and admittedly it's a big if) those figures are correct and if they're each (Nigerian and Polish) say sending $1100 a year back to their home countries from the UK then that suggests that the impact would be greater on the Polish economy by virtue of the Poland's smaller population and the greater number of Polish people in the UK?

Accepted that the far lower GDP per capita of Nigeria compared to Poland means that even a smaller benefit from remittances might be more significant and life changing to a poor individual - if the benefit reaches the individual.

It all depends on the accuracy of the figures of course and finding reliable figures for the UK is as usual quite challenging.

Then there's the benefit to the different countries unemployment stats and savings of any unemployment benefit paid and things like tax credits (that's if they pay them in those countries).

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2017 by billybong

[macca13]

10 hours ago, Venger said:

 

What if you want to move to an area but are badly priced out?   That's my story, so I don't buy and rent on edge of area I would like to live in.  Boo-hoo.

There are some disconnects in there.   Loses his house?

How old is he?   How did he lose his house?  Homeowner or renter?   You don't mention any kids.   Does he work to help pay his future way in London.  Has he got savings.

Life isn't fair.  There is no absolute right for free/paid housing in any area.

There was a guy on HPC in 2012/13 who lost his job and he began a thread how homeowners get no help (!).   As I remember it his place was worth a lot and he did not want to downsize or move out of the area, and he really went on a rant about it, despite being worth fortunes.   Something similar on MSE as well.  Loved his apartment.

Moving area is not the end of the world.  And it's only for those who can't pay their way, although admittedly that can be harder for some in housing financialisation.

I've mentioned this on here a couple of times but l live in outer London, my Gran lives in warden controlled accommodation (council) except due to cutbacks the warden does not exist anymore.. I digress.. 

Point being most of her neighbors are now foreign, Chinese, shrilankan and polish. They never paid into the system (don't speak english) but have retired in the U.K. On benefits in outer London.. So I am angry that British born people that have been born in London then have found themselves priced out of the market are kicked out! then they house foreigners. I agree if you are receiving free housing then any house is a blessing.. but come on, British first.. personally I would deport them, you should not be aloud to retire here without paying in! There lies madness, having a system like ours, all must pay in to receive, otherwise the system does not work..

[HairyOb1]

On 3/25/2017 at 0:30 AM, Habeas Domus said:

from Wiki for Nigeria:

According to the International Organization for Migration, Nigeria witnessed a dramatic increase in remittances sent home from overseas Nigerians, going from USD 2.3 billion in 2004 to 17.9 billion in 2007, representing 6.7% of GDP. The United States accounts for the largest portion of official remittances, followed by the United Kingdom, Italy, Canada, Spain and France.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nigeria#Overseas_remittances

So thats roughly equivalent to 10% of the population living abroad and sending home $1100 per year

Those amounts of money make a real difference to 3rd world countries, but the effect on countries like Poland will be far less.

I don't doubt some money is sent home, as they have different value sets than most English, but I disputed the amounts, which Spyguy suggested was anywhere between 30 and 60%

Sending home an average of $1100 isn't much, it's about £16-17 a week.  I've no issues at all with that.

[Habeas Domus]

38 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

I don't doubt some money is sent home, as they have different value sets than most English, but I disputed the amounts, which Spyguy suggested was anywhere between 30 and 60%

Sending home an average of $1100 isn't much, it's about £16-17 a week.  I've no issues at all with that.

The 10% living abroad is a pure guess, if it was a much lower number, then they would have to be sending home larger amounts.

Either way theres likely to be a bell curve with some people sending much more than others. Perhaps a few millionaires have left and still send back money which would also skew the numbers.

[winkie]

 

[iamnumerate]

On 25/03/2017 at 1:58 AM, macca13 said:

I've mentioned this on here a couple of times but l live in outer London, my Gran lives in warden controlled accommodation (council) except due to cutbacks the warden does not exist anymore.. I digress.. 

Point being most of her neighbors are now foreign, Chinese, shrilankan and polish. They never paid into the system (don't speak english) but have retired in the U.K. On benefits in outer London.. So I am angry that British born people that have been born in London then have found themselves priced out of the market are kicked out! then they house foreigners. I agree if you are receiving free housing then any house is a blessing.. but come on, British first.. personally I would deport them, you should not be aloud to retire here without paying in! There lies madness, having a system like ours, all must pay in to receive, otherwise the system does not work..

I knew someone who came here from South America quite late in life and got a council flat - she was annoyed that she had to live in Edgeware - which amazed me as I would have been grateful for a flat in Lerwick, if I had been her.