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Peak Kite flying?


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HOLA441
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HOLA442
On 16/03/2018 at 11:22, hotblack42 said:

I find myself in a strange position now as a committed HPC'er, also selling a quite expensive house in the SW, north of Bristol.  I'll use percentages in case a potential buyer comes across this post.  We bought the house in 1999 for about 10% below the going rate for a quick sale (ah, those were the days). Since then we've improved the upstairs from a nasty 5 bed 1 bath layout, to 4 bed 2 bath & added a very nice, spacious brick conservatory with posh glass etc.
So allowing for all that & inflation we should be selling for about 100% more than we paid originally.
It's on the market for 260% more.

 

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Interesting - how have you priced inflation?

It's just that inflation calculators for that time suggest that inflation alone should have added 65+% onto it.

 

If say inflation plus improvements actually in total add 150% on, then the degree of overpricing comes to 360/250 giving 45% over priced compared to 1999 prices, something easily corrected by a workaday crash plus ongoing inflation over next decade or so. Just a thought.

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HOLA445
10 hours ago, Houdini said:

Even so that's a 10 fold increase in 20 years whilst wages have possibly doubled in that time. 

 

Yes but the trick is interest rates , plus two people (couple buying) so can sell for 750K but 1.1m is just stupid

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7 hours ago, warrior88 said:

Yes but the trick is interest rates , plus two people (couple buying) so can sell for 750K but 1.1m is just stupid

By "magically" having a 20% deposit on a 750k, PRA says you need a household income of 133k

London is not filled with people in such capacity.

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On 29/05/2018 at 12:53, fru-gal said:

Who is going to have these massive amounts needed to pay these prices once BOMAD and equity from recent HPI moves out of the system? These kind of prices are only really available to boomers who have huge amounts of equity or to people who have equity/bomad deposits plus can get a mortgage. I doubt that many 30 year olds are being gifted £500k deposits and even then they would still need to get a mortgage of £500k. At some point either prices will drop or some fiddling with credit will occur. 

I know of a couple who are just under 30 (both earning high salaries above 100K each) and just bought a £900K property, they are an exception and not the rule.

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1 hour ago, fru-gal said:

You would need hundreds of thousands of couples like this to pay for all the "£1 million" houses in London and even then it is almost 5 x household income before taxes!

When 1% of earners can only just afford average houses... We must be near peak kite flying

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3 hours ago, warrior88 said:

I know of a couple who are just under 30 (both earning high salaries above 100K each) and just bought a £900K property, they are an exception and not the rule.

to pay someone 100k they would need to be making me at least 500k profit a year ?

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17 minutes ago, FabulousSophie said:

I don't know if I am imagining it or not, but I think I am seeing more houses in the south coming on to the market at kite flying prices.

So am I in Beds.  But they are not selling at those prices so therefore I'm also seeing a lot more reductions come through on Right Move.  I think the kite flyers are probably the BTL landlords who haven't bought or sold anything for a while and still think it's a mad market out there.  And the estate agents are either going along with them or they just won't be told "No, you won't be able to sell your ugly neglected 2-bed with no garden if you put it on for offers over £245,000"

Edited by stop_the_craziness
clarity
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