The Official Brexit - Remain Thread - All New Threads Will Be Merged Into This One

[Bruce Banner]

Bruce, I understand that HPC is now a home for UKIP sympathisers but until it bans anything that doesn't fit in with the UKIP view of the world I will continue to post an alternative view and use the responses such as those from the op to reinforce my views of the intellectual capabilities of the average Farage fan.

I am not a UKIP sympathiser, nor are most of those who will vote for a Brexit.

[Steppenpig]

I think the word " little"might be a bit of wishful thinking on your part. Trade was falling with the Commonwealth before the UK joined the common market as Commonwealth countries were already finding new markets. As for UK manafacturing being wiped out, didn't that have more to do with the asset stripping that was encouraged in the 1980's as an alternative to having an economy that had a sustainable future? Manafacturing in the rest of the EU wasn't wiped out. The rest of the EU didn't have the UK economic model that has existed since the 1980's.

Well, we all hope our decisicions are the right ones.

(This is my opinion, as far as I am aware it is not a generally accepted economic fact) All small and weak manufacturing economies have suffered on joining the EU. Eventually only Germany will prosper, and the others will all be wiped out. Other countries need to find alternative sources of prosperity

[robo1968]

Bruce, I understand that HPC is now a home for UKIP sympathisers but until it bans anything that doesn't fit in with the UKIP view of the world I will continue to post an alternative view and use the responses such as those from the op to reinforce my views of the intellectual capabilities of the average Farage fan.

As the old saying goes.......

If you can't beat them, blame them

Now, where are my answers...

Where exactly are the likes of chief manufacturing EU nations like Germany going to find as a new market because the UK have left the EU?

and

Which tariffs are going to be applied the tyhe UK in the event of a brexit?

[billybong]

Certainty quotes

http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/certainty

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/certainty.html

Edited February 29, 2016 by billybong

[Bruce Banner]

Actually, thinking about it, this is a much better chance of getting rid of Cameron than we had at the last general election.

At the election, those of us who voted UKIP, as a vote against the socialist Cameron, effectively wasted our votes because of the boundaries, although there was little choice other than voting Labour (more socialists). However, in this referendum, every vote counts.

[billybong]

Why is it that no one ever worried about the 10 years of uncertainty that countries joining the EU do experience? Us joining the EU wiped out our manufacturing industry and our trade with the commonwealth.

If you are afraid of a little uncertainty, that's fine. We are all different. I think I can tolerate it.

Then there's the uncertainty that recent changes in the eu have produced with any number of different possible unwelcome outcomes for all eu members including the UK.

That and the eu's creation of continual economic uncertainty into the future through its handling of the whole economy.

Edited February 29, 2016 by billybong

[RentingForever]

Then there's the uncertainty that recent changes in the eu have produced with any number of different possible unwelcome outcomes for all eu members including the UK.

That and the eu's creation of continual economic uncertainty into the future through its handling of the whole economy.

^^ this.

[Sheeple Splinter]

We'll see what transpires but that phrase "fully compatible" suggests it's been agreed that the treaties aren't altered except perhaps by a reference to the written agreement. It's possible it's been agreed the agreement has no more status than a clarification of the wording in the treaties.

It does say

From that wording (will become effective) it sounds like the legal status (any ECJ etc consultation/involvement) of the agreement has been finalised and if the different nations have also all agreed and signed it would be as good as law now - subject to the referendum result.

It does probably mean diddly squat in terms of actual change.

After it's effectively been implemented the ECJ might have to help top sort out disputes about it's actual meaning of course.

Why does it have to wait until the referendum? Why couldn't the changes be made immediately to the treaties?

[campervanman]

The only case of any nation leaving the EU was Greenland as an autonomous region of Denmark. It took 3 years. Greenland has a GDP of £2 billion. It is the 166 th biggest economy in the world. Canada has been negotiating a new trade deal with the EU for the past 8 years.

As for where would Germany find new markets for it's exports? I thought one of the brexiteers big arguments was that the UK could easily find new markets for trade it would lose with the EU. If that is true for 45% of UK exports then it is also probably true for 15% of German exports. Or maybe it is not true for both? What is probably true is that the UK with a large trade defecit needs to export more and consume less than it currently does whilst Germany and the rest of the EU with a large positive trade balance can afford to export less and consume more. Ask yourself who has more room for manouevre, who could afford to drag out negotiations and keep the status quo longer? Whose lights will go out first?

Edited February 29, 2016 by campervanman

[robo1968]

The only case of any nation leaving the EU was Greenland as an autonomous region of Denmark. It took 3 years. Greenland has a GDP of £2 billion. It is the 166 th biggest economy in the world.

As for where would Germany find new markets for it's exports? I thought one of the brexiteers big arguments was that the UK could easily find new markets for trade it would lose with the EU. If that is true for 45% of UK exports then it is also probably true for 15% of German exports. Or maybe it is not true for both? What is probably true is that the UK with a large trade defecit needs to export more and consume less than it currently does whilst Germany and the rest of the EU with a large positive trade balance can afford to export less and consume more. Ask yourself who more room for manouevre, who could afford to drag out negotiations and keep the status quo longer? Whose lights will go out first?

That's no what you said, stop deflecting, you stated Germany will look for other markets, never mind what would happen to us. Why can't you answer a simple question?

Besides, the Tariffs placed on non EU countries is set by the EU, not the UK, which will enable us to do better outside, that is unless you think the need for money and business to continue is immaterial to bureaucrats and they will stop everything until agreements are in place

Why can't you tell us where these Tariffs you seem to know so much about are coming from?

Edited February 29, 2016 by robo1968

[campervanman]

I have no idea what tariffs will or will not be applied. That is the point about uncertainty, I do not know, you do not know, the markets do not know and neither do British companies. That will cause uncertainty for many years whilst negotiations take place. That is what the Government report is highlighting.

On the other point, if you believe that the UK can find new markets for it's goods and services than you cannot argue that Germany couldn't. Do you disagree that the UK has to export more or that the EU needs to consume more?

[robo1968]

I have no idea what tariffs will or will not be applied. That is the point about uncertainty, I do not know, you do not know, the markets do not know and neither do British companies. That will cause uncertainty for many years whilst negotiations take place. That is what the Government report is highlighting.

On the other point, if you believe that the UK can find new markets for it's goods and services than you cannot argue that Germany couldn't. Do you disagree that the UK has to export more or that the EU needs to consume more?

I just explained it for you, can't you understand the simplest point about the UK trading outside the EU pre and post Exit? or are you just blind to information you don't like

Oh dear, memory isn't your strongest point

"As imports become more expensive then surely the importance of the UK as an export market for the EU decreases. Germany for example will be looking for new markets to buy the cars that UK buyers could no longer afford. On the flip side, UK exports will become much cheaper in the EU although new tarrifs will eat into the discount. "

What tariffs? I repeat again.... if you don't know then don't type drivel

[campervanman]

What part of my previous post are you having a problem with. Do you disagree that a falling pound will make UK imports more expensive? Do you believe that the UK will strike a deal with the EU that avoids any additional tariffs to trade? Why would they do that with a country that is of reducing importance to it?

You clearly do not understand the concept of uncertainty. To repeat the uncertainty will be caused by protracted negotiations and the uncertainty to the markets and to British business of what trading terms will exist following them. Do you disagree?

[robo1968]

What part of my previous post are you having a problem with. Do you disagree that a falling pound will make UK imports more expensive? Do you believe that the UK will strike a deal with the EU that avoids any additional tariffs to trade? Why would they do that with a country that is of reducing importance to it?

You clearly do not understand the concept of uncertainty. To repeat the uncertainty will be caused by protracted negotiations and the uncertainty to the markets and to British business of what trading terms will exist following them. Do you disagree?

Is deflection your middle name?

What Tariffs? you're the one quoting them, not me saying there won't be any. How would I know?

If you don't know then why say there will be?

Of course I understand uncertainty, I do business around the world, no one can afford for anything but the status quo to continue until any new agreements are in place. It is a mutual part of the supply chain, clearly you don't see that point, you think that the need for countries to keep industry plays no part in this process when I suspect it will take precedent.

Now back to the point, are you accepting you don't know what tariffs will be in place?

How the hell are the Germans going to find new business when they are still restricted by the same EU rules? Unlike us

Sometimes I wish those who want to stay in would grow a pair

Your point about the falling pound is obvious, of course imports will become more expensive just as exports will cheapen, problem is you are basing that on the FACT that the pound will fall, you know that no more than I do.

Every time the pound falls it'll be down down to Brexit before during and after the referendum should we leave,

Edited February 29, 2016 by robo1968

[campervanman]

Why would there not be tariffs? Why would you expect the EU to allow the UK to do the stuff it wants to do around free movement etc and retain the same right of access to the single market with no downside? I know that seems to be a common position from the Brexit camp but it is no more credible from them than it is from you.

On your point about the pound, I do not know but the majority opinion seems to be that it would, again because of the uncertainty that leaving will create just as the uncertainty about the result is.

BTW what EU regulations will prevent Germany from increasing it's exports to other countries that wouldn't apply any more in the UK? Paid holidays for workers? Preventing people being forced to work 70 hours a week?

Edited February 29, 2016 by campervanman

[robo1968]

Why would there not be tariffs? Why would you expect the EU to allow the UK to do the stuff it wants to do around free movement etc and retain the same right of access to the single market with no downside? I know that seems to be a common position from the Brexit camp but it is no more credible from them than it is from you.

So you're saying there definitely will be tariffs again. Don't you think the Car manufacturers of Germany might want to have a quick word with Merkel about this? how about our import/export difference to boot. I wish you'd make your mind up

One thing I find really disappointing about this is the manner in which the IN campaigners have such little belief in the UK and such short memories, this happened with the Euro in just the same way, it is a combination of those at the top with a vested interest feeding the lemmings with such fear that they believe it

If the UK leaves the EU there won't be an EU within 12 months, that's my prediction. This will all be a waste of hot air.

Edited February 29, 2016 by robo1968

[campervanman]

What is not understood is that the UK is bankrupt. It may be the 5th largest economy in the world but that is based upon fake GDP linked to consumer debt and HPI. That is fact, it is not putting down the UK just telling it as it is.

[robo1968]

What is not understood is that the UK is bankrupt. It may be the 5th largest economy in the world but that is based upon fake GDP linked to consumer debt and HPI. That is fact, it is not putting down the UK just telling it as it is.

The world is bankrupt, everything is relative. I don't see what that comment has to do with anything else you have said in our conversation,

Why not show a bit of bravery instead of sounding like yet another spineless lemming who has no faith in his homeland, population (of all races) and ability.

Brexit isn't the answer to all our problems at all, don't get me wrong. It's just a better solution in my opinion

Edited February 29, 2016 by robo1968

[XswampyX]

We became bankrupt while we were in the EU. Why is that a good thing to shout about?

[Sheeple Splinter]

Why would there not be tariffs? Why would you expect the EU to allow the UK to do the stuff it wants to do around free movement etc and retain the same right of access to the single market with no downside? I know that seems to be a common position from the Brexit camp but it is no more credible from them than it is from you.

On your point about the pound, I do not know but the majority opinion seems to be that it would, again because of the uncertainty that leaving will create just as the uncertainty about the result is.

BTW what EU regulations will prevent Germany from increasing it's exports to other countries that wouldn't apply any more in the UK? Paid holidays for workers? Preventing people being forced to work 70 hours a week?

IIRC, Article 50 provides for a 2 year window in which the UK continues to trade with the current framework. Presumably, within that timeframe, the UK could be setting up new trade deals and with these certainties, is it such a leap into the dark?

[billybong]

Why does it have to wait until the referendum? Why couldn't the changes be made immediately to the treaties?

or even years ago. The reason being because they didn't want to make any (even feeble and pretend) changes but the referendum has forced them to come up with some things they can call changes.

If they implemented the "changes" now by the time of the referendum everyone would be able to see that the changes made little or no difference. Little or no difference like it will be after the referendum if the vote is not Out.

Edited March 1, 2016 by billybong

[EUBanana]

The only case of any nation leaving the EU was Greenland as an autonomous region of Denmark. It took 3 years. Greenland has a GDP of £2 billion. It is the 166 th biggest economy in the world. Canada has been negotiating a new trade deal with the EU for the past 8 years.

As for where would Germany find new markets for it's exports? I thought one of the brexiteers big arguments was that the UK could easily find new markets for trade it would lose with the EU. If that is true for 45% of UK exports then it is also probably true for 15% of German exports. Or maybe it is not true for both? What is probably true is that the UK with a large trade defecit needs to export more and consume less than it currently does whilst Germany and the rest of the EU with a large positive trade balance can afford to export less and consume more. Ask yourself who has more room for manouevre, who could afford to drag out negotiations and keep the status quo longer? Whose lights will go out first?

1) Canada's ambassador said that if we wanted a trade deal with Canada post Brexit we could have one by the evening on the same day. It taking 8 years is because the EU is overly bureaucratic, red tape obsessed and generally $hit. And is another argument against the EU, not one for it.

2) Germany can find a new market for its exports, at EU speed.

3) The Vienna Convention would imply that in the short term at least everything would continue as it did prior to Brexit anyway.

[campervanman]

Lies about the EU as featured by the Sun Express and others:

http://ec.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/blog/index_en.htm

Go on, educate yourselves.

[campervanman]

We became bankrupt while we were in the EU. Why is that a good thing to shout about?

The UK became bankrupt because it opted for a money for nothing economy not because it was a member of the EU.

[robo1968]

Lies about the EU as featured by the Sun Express and others:

http://ec.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/blog/index_en.htm

Go on, educate yourselves.

Only last night I was up worrying about whether American pasties were going to arrive on these shores....

What on earth are you on about,

I'd concentrate more on the Jungle at Calais,

Only two weeks ago the IN campaign were telling us they'd be all coming here if the UK leaves, now it is being demolished,

Do you have anything to say about how substantive that was?