rantnrave Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 YoY below 10% too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Made up Season Adjusted I wager. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Rate of property inflation has tanked, only a matter of time before it turns negative again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 I feel poorer now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 I feel poorer now. Don't worry, the GDP figures will soon make you feel even poorer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted September 8, 2014 Author Share Posted September 8, 2014 (edited) Oops - wrong thread... Edited September 8, 2014 by rantnrave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 What were the two months actual figures anyone know ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 What were the two months actual figures anyone know ? July's SA number was revised down from £186,322 to £186,073. August's number is £186,270. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 (edited) July's SA number was revised down from £186,322 to £186,073. August's number is £186,270. If I were a better man..... You might as well add their 0.1% press release to the propaganda thread. Edited September 8, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Neat trick. You can using this method to create a rising market as here with a +0.1% (186,270 is higher than 186,073) even when the market is falling ... 186,322 down to 186,270 ie -0.1% by simply adjusting last months figure. So the market could fall from say 186k to 167k ie a 10% fall but show monthly positive increases of providing you get the adjustments correct. yeah..it's called lying/fraud/criminal/propaganda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/Media/Press-Releases/2014/halifax/halifax-house-price-index-august-2014/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mobfant Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 July's SA number was revised down from £186,322 to £186,073. August's number is £186,270. Sorry, a couple of ignorant questions - what does seasonally adjusted mean? Is it trying to account for the fact that there are fewer sales in the summer, and if so how/why? And when/why (do they say that) they revised July's figure down? Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Sorry, a couple of ignorant questions - what does seasonally adjusted mean? Is it trying to account for the fact that there are fewer sales in the summer, and if so how/why? And when/why (do they say that) they revised July's figure down? Cheers Yeah, that's what it used to mean, now it's definition is slightly different Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 RBS Economic Insight @RBS_Economics 1h Halifax Aug house price index 9.7%y/y, Nationwide 11.2%y/y - growth in both slowed a bit - turning point? pic.twitter.com/y01LXkTGTo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Pre-election market manipulation has ended...will still be yoy =ve come next year.... WHo do we vote for to stop this fraud ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 The above graph shows that FFL is responsible for the majority of the house price inflation over the last 12 months. I will leave it up to the reader to guess what it's removal will do over the next 12 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simonsaid Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 The above graph shows that FFL is responsible for the majority of the house price inflation over the last 12 months. I will leave it up to the reader to guess what it's removal will do over the next 12 months. The last column. Have we had 4% wage inflation the last 12 months or are better paid only getting mortgages/being sucked in? Also sadly in theory nothing stopping them starting FLS again for mortgages again if prices fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 The above graph shows that FFL is responsible for the majority of the house price inflation over the last 12 months. I will leave it up to the reader to guess what it's removal will do over the next 12 months. FLS was started over 2 years ago by Mervyn King. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Sorry, a couple of ignorant questions - what does seasonally adjusted mean? Is it trying to account for the fact that there are fewer sales in the summer, and if so how/why? And when/why (do they say that) they revised July's figure down? Cheers August's non-seasonally adjusted Halifax figure was £185,997 against £189,726 in July - implying a drop of 2% in house prices over the month. However (and I'll save myself some typing by quoting from Nationwide's methodology notes): "House prices are slightly seasonal - that is, prices are higher at certain times of year irrespective of the overall trend. This tends to be in spring and summer, when more buyers are in the market and hence sellers do not need to discount prices so heavily, in order to achieve a sale. The effect on prices over the year is of the order of +/- 1.5 %; however this is much smaller than the change in volume of property transactions. The seasonal effect is estimated each month using established statistical methods. For the monthly house price index where changes can be as little as 0.1%, seasonal factors are important. Nationwide therefore produces a seasonally adjusted series for UK house prices which seeks to remove this effect so that the overall trend in prices is more readily apparent. Seasonal adjustment shows that June is generally the strongest month for house prices (raw prices are 1.2% above their SA level) and January is the weakest (raw prices are 1.3% below their SA level)." Each month when Halifax publishes its House Price Index, both the previous month's seasonally-adjusted figure and the one for twelve months ago are subject to revision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 August's non-seasonally adjusted Halifax figure was £185,997 against £189,726 in July - implying a drop of 2% in house prices over the month. However (and I'll save myself some typing by quoting from Nationwide's methodology notes): "House prices are slightly seasonal - that is, prices are higher at certain times of year irrespective of the overall trend. This tends to be in spring and summer, when more buyers are in the market and hence sellers do not need to discount prices so heavily, in order to achieve a sale. The effect on prices over the year is of the order of +/- 1.5 %; however this is much smaller than the change in volume of property transactions. The seasonal effect is estimated each month using established statistical methods. For the monthly house price index where changes can be as little as 0.1%, seasonal factors are important. Nationwide therefore produces a seasonally adjusted series for UK house prices which seeks to remove this effect so that the overall trend in prices is more readily apparent. Seasonal adjustment shows that June is generally the strongest month for house prices (raw prices are 1.2% above their SA level) and January is the weakest (raw prices are 1.3% below their SA level)." Each month when Halifax publishes its House Price Index, both the previous month's seasonally-adjusted figure and the one for twelve months ago are subject to revision manipulation. I found what I think is a better word for you. Any company in the business of selling a product is always going to make buying that product seem more attractive than it probably is. Why would bankers be any different ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 Martin Ellis, the Halifax’s housing economist, said the prospect of an interest rate rise at some point over the coming months was likely to curb demand. Meanwhile, there was evidence that more second-hand properties were coming on to the market, as well as increased numbers of new homes, he added. [..]“August saw a further cooling in the housing market, according to the Halifax, which is perhaps not surprising as it tends to be a quieter time of year. However, the three-month data also points to a less frenzied market, which is good news for buyers,” he said. http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/sep/08/uk-house-prices-august Yet still expectations for more HPI. The VI were saying the same approaching many a hard HPC in the past too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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