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rantnrave

Halifax Up 0.1%

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July's SA number was revised down from £186,322 to £186,073.

August's number is £186,270.

If I were a better man.....

You might as well add their 0.1% press release to the propaganda thread.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Neat trick. You can using this method to create a rising market as here with a +0.1% (186,270 is higher than 186,073) even when the market is falling ... 186,322 down to 186,270 ie -0.1% by simply adjusting last months figure. So the market could fall from say 186k to 167k ie a 10% fall but show monthly positive increases of providing you get the adjustments correct.

yeah..it's called lying/fraud/criminal/propaganda

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July's SA number was revised down from £186,322 to £186,073.

August's number is £186,270.

Sorry, a couple of ignorant questions - what does seasonally adjusted mean? Is it trying to account for the fact that there are fewer sales in the summer, and if so how/why? And when/why (do they say that) they revised July's figure down?

Cheers

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Sorry, a couple of ignorant questions - what does seasonally adjusted mean? Is it trying to account for the fact that there are fewer sales in the summer, and if so how/why? And when/why (do they say that) they revised July's figure down?

Cheers

Yeah, that's what it used to mean, now it's definition is slightly different :P

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BxAMxtUIgAAJOp3.png

The above graph shows that FFL is responsible for the majority of the house price inflation over the last 12 months.

I will leave it up to the reader to guess what it's removal will do over the next 12 months.

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BxAMxtUIgAAJOp3.png

The above graph shows that FFL is responsible for the majority of the house price inflation over the last 12 months.

I will leave it up to the reader to guess what it's removal will do over the next 12 months.

The last column. Have we had 4% wage inflation the last 12 months or are better paid only getting mortgages/being sucked in?

Also sadly in theory nothing stopping them starting FLS again for mortgages again if prices fall.

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BxAMxtUIgAAJOp3.png

The above graph shows that FFL is responsible for the majority of the house price inflation over the last 12 months.

I will leave it up to the reader to guess what it's removal will do over the next 12 months.

FLS was started over 2 years ago by Mervyn King.

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Sorry, a couple of ignorant questions - what does seasonally adjusted mean? Is it trying to account for the fact that there are fewer sales in the summer, and if so how/why? And when/why (do they say that) they revised July's figure down?

Cheers

August's non-seasonally adjusted Halifax figure was £185,997 against £189,726 in July - implying a drop of 2% in house prices over the month.

However (and I'll save myself some typing by quoting from Nationwide's methodology notes):

"House prices are slightly seasonal - that is, prices are higher at certain times of year irrespective of the overall trend. This tends to be in spring and summer, when more buyers are in the market and hence sellers do not need to discount prices so heavily, in order to achieve a sale. The effect on prices over the year is of the order of +/- 1.5 %; however this is much smaller than the change in volume of property transactions. The seasonal effect is estimated each month using established statistical methods. For the monthly house price index where changes can be as little as 0.1%, seasonal factors are important. Nationwide therefore produces a seasonally adjusted series for UK house prices which seeks to remove this effect so that the overall trend in prices is more readily apparent. Seasonal adjustment shows that June is generally the strongest month for house prices (raw prices are 1.2% above their SA level) and January is the weakest (raw prices are 1.3% below their SA level)."

Each month when Halifax publishes its House Price Index, both the previous month's seasonally-adjusted figure and the one for twelve months ago are subject to revision.

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August's non-seasonally adjusted Halifax figure was £185,997 against £189,726 in July - implying a drop of 2% in house prices over the month.

However (and I'll save myself some typing by quoting from Nationwide's methodology notes):

"House prices are slightly seasonal - that is, prices are higher at certain times of year irrespective of the overall trend. This tends to be in spring and summer, when more buyers are in the market and hence sellers do not need to discount prices so heavily, in order to achieve a sale. The effect on prices over the year is of the order of +/- 1.5 %; however this is much smaller than the change in volume of property transactions. The seasonal effect is estimated each month using established statistical methods. For the monthly house price index where changes can be as little as 0.1%, seasonal factors are important. Nationwide therefore produces a seasonally adjusted series for UK house prices which seeks to remove this effect so that the overall trend in prices is more readily apparent. Seasonal adjustment shows that June is generally the strongest month for house prices (raw prices are 1.2% above their SA level) and January is the weakest (raw prices are 1.3% below their SA level)."

Each month when Halifax publishes its House Price Index, both the previous month's seasonally-adjusted figure and the one for twelve months ago are subject to revision manipulation.

I found what I think is a better word for you.

Any company in the business of selling a product is always going to make buying that product seem more attractive than it probably is.

Why would bankers be any different ?

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Martin Ellis, the Halifax’s housing economist, said the prospect of an interest rate rise at some point over the coming months was likely to curb demand. Meanwhile, there was evidence that more second-hand properties were coming on to the market, as well as increased numbers of new homes, he added.

[..]“August saw a further cooling in the housing market, according to the Halifax, which is perhaps not surprising as it tends to be a quieter time of year. However, the three-month data also points to a less frenzied market, which is good news for buyers,” he said.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/sep/08/uk-house-prices-august

Yet still expectations for more HPI. The VI were saying the same approaching many a hard HPC in the past too.

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