ianbeale Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 The HPC confidece index was set up at the beginning of NOV 05. Its purpose is to provide a MOM indication to monitor changes in sentiment of the members of this site by answering the question below Do you think that HPC is delivering to your expectations within your timescale? Current indicators are as follows (positive means the HPC is going well - sentiment improving) Latest HPC Confidence Index result = minus 3.57% ( calc - 50% - no vote for NOV 05) MOM improvement = data not yet available (calc -NOV 05 - OCT 05) 3 Monthly improvement = data not yet available (calc - NOV 05 - AUG 05) 12 Monthly improvement = data not yet available (calc - NOV 05 - NOV 04) Prevous poll results NOV 05 http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...onfidence+index Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London Landlady Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 I can't vote (Trolls are not allowed to) But I would vote no, not delivering as I don't think we are having a crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzMosiz Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 I think its starting to kick off now. I think the 2.5% increase is bullsh** and prices are actually down. I think their is also a standoff between buyers and sellers in some areas and I believe the sellers will lose eventually or just not sell. Some people will HAVE to sell eventually - especially people moving or in financial trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashConnoisseur Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 I can't vote (Trolls are not allowed to) But I would vote no, not delivering as I don't think we are having a crash. Now there's a recursive post if ever I saw one. Classic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gandalf Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 I can't vote (Trolls are not allowed to) But I would vote no, not delivering as I don't think we are having a crash. LL, Surely you should be voting YES to this particular question?! i.e your expectations of a crash are non existant and hence by answering NO, you're actually saying that you're seeing a crash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waitingforthesun Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 ECB is planing several rates hike FED is planing several rates hike BoE isn't planning any rate cut, maybe a hike if inflation goes up again Gold over 500 usd/oz Russian central bank said it will increase its gold reserve to 10% Asian bank may follow... Drop in paper money confidence and surge in inflation will increase long term rates Iran is going to annouce it will trade its crude oil in euro in March 06, after Benmarke steps in FED office Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zag2me Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 Dont see any kind of crash at all, prices have been stabile for over a year in my area (south east) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Wildman Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 I essentially see it the house price market as a ski jump, just taking off from the small ramp at the bottom - expect a initial glide and then a big crash as you hit the snow; all those BTL'ers can't ski jump you see....! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Once in a lifetime Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 Dont see any kind of crash at all, prices have been stabile for over a year in my area (south east) What part of the south east are you from zag2me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 (edited) ian, I think this is a great idea, but I do not think your question is robust enough to give consistant voting patterns, because it asks people of consider two variables in the one question, namely their expections and their current perception of the market. It would be easier to understand and respond to if the question was, Do you expect the market of rise or fall over the next three months? a) rise Fall Edited December 2, 2005 by FTBagain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianbeale Posted December 2, 2005 Author Share Posted December 2, 2005 ian, I think this is a great idea, but I do not think your question is robust enough to give consistant voting patterns, because it asks people of consider two variables in the one question, namely their expections and their current perception of the market. It would be easier to understand and respond to if the question was, Do you expect the market of rise or fall over the next three months? a) rise Fall I purposely made this question quite non specific in such away that it taht each voter could interpret it to their own aspirations in order to capture the general mood of members on this site. I feel that that the agenda of each member is quite complex and cannot be measured in terms of house price falls alone(albeit that is a big part). I expect it to be quite volatile for the first couple of months as a bit of a backlash against the negative figures produced in the first month of november. Hopefully the same members will return MOM and vote honestly and openly, this should provide consistant meaningfull results. I am happy to run with this for a few months and see how it pans out. Charts to follow when iv'e got enough data. Thanks for the support. IB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob monkhouse Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 I purposely made this question quite non specific in such away that it taht each voter could interpret it to their own aspirations in order to capture the general mood of members on this site. I feel that that the agenda of each member is quite complex and cannot be measured in terms of house price falls alone(albeit that is a big part). I expect it to be quite volatile for the first couple of months as a bit of a backlash against the negative figures produced in the first month of november. Hopefully the same members will return MOM and vote honestly and openly, this should provide consistant meaningfull results. I am happy to run with this for a few months and see how it pans out. Charts to follow when iv'e got enough data. Thanks for the support. IB Keep away from the ol' vic you slaaag ahem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teddyboy Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 I think also that this is a confidence survey, not a survey of what is happening. I think Im a great shag but it does not mean I am, does it? The site hits info at the bottom of the page show a rise in visits this month and last - so more and more people are thinkng the way we do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 5, 2005 Share Posted December 5, 2005 I'm a lot more confident today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bart of Darkness Posted December 6, 2005 Share Posted December 6, 2005 I can't vote (Trolls are not allowed to) But I would vote no, not delivering as I don't think we are having a crash. Who the feck cares what you think anyway? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted December 7, 2005 Share Posted December 7, 2005 originally I voted no when the topic first came up...but after the recent events I think I'll have to change my mind and say yes....and then some!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
music man Posted December 7, 2005 Share Posted December 7, 2005 I think it's on it's way. As afore mentioned recent events have helped by removing false market pressure i.e. sipps and btl taxation. How many 4 / 5 BTL home owners are going to be stretched to pay the £25K yearly tax now due, tax at present 0. My heart bleeds. I wait in anticipation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianbeale Posted December 8, 2005 Author Share Posted December 8, 2005 I think it's on it's way. As afore mentioned recent events have helped by removing false market pressure i.e. sipps and btl taxation. How many 4 / 5 BTL home owners are going to be stretched to pay the £25K yearly tax now due, tax at present 0. My heart bleeds. I wait in anticipation. sorry music man, have i missed something, whats all this abouth a 25k tax bill? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London Landlady Posted December 9, 2005 Share Posted December 9, 2005 sorry music man, have i missed something, whats all this abouth a 25k tax bill? I'm not sure about what he means either! Also, do you think maybe for the next poll it might be worth doing something like: What do you think prices will do in the next year? Go up >10% Go up 5-10% Go up 0-5% Stay flat Drop 0-5% Drop 5-10% Drop 10-20% etc? Apologies if it has been asked before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianbeale Posted December 10, 2005 Author Share Posted December 10, 2005 I'm not sure about what he means either! Also, do you think maybe for the next poll it might be worth doing something like: What do you think prices will do in the next year? Go up >10% Go up 5-10% Go up 0-5% Stay flat Drop 0-5% Drop 5-10% Drop 10-20% etc? Apologies if it has been asked before. please see post 10 and 11 in this thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apom Posted December 23, 2005 Share Posted December 23, 2005 (edited) I can't vote (Trolls are not allowed to) But I would vote no, not delivering as I don't think we are having a crash. Quality... well I am being offered 20% drops against any new build here in devon.. Just got to ask... cashback anyone...??? anyone... don't forget.. London has only gone up about 60% in 7 years.. rubbish... can I say... if a troll is soneone who does not agree with the general consensus.. Why the hell do they not have a vote..?? this sort of thing has to change if this site is to be taken seriously... lol.. christmas.. Edited December 23, 2005 by apom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The_Oldie Posted December 23, 2005 Share Posted December 23, 2005 can I say... if a troll is soneone who does not agree with the general consensus.. Why the hell do they not have a vote..?? this sort of thing has to change if this site is to be taken seriously... A troll is not someone who does not agree with the general consensus, a troll is someone (usually an employee of an EA or other VI company and posting under multiple identities) who registers and posts here purely to disrupt and discredit this site. The (deliberately provocative) post you quoted was by "London Landlady" AKA Paranoid, AKA Happy Homeowner, AKA Angus D Bitters....... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=21008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferret Posted December 23, 2005 Share Posted December 23, 2005 can I say... if a troll is soneone who does not agree with the general consensus.. Why the hell do they not have a vote..?? this sort of thing has to change if this site is to be taken seriously... Evidently you`re not a full browser of the threads, just stick to your own little corner do you ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted December 27, 2005 Share Posted December 27, 2005 (edited) A troll is not someone who does not agree with the general consensus, a troll is someone (usually an employee of an EA or other VI company and posting under multiple identities) who registers and posts here purely to disrupt and discredit this site. Is there any evidence that they are employed by VI's rather than just delusional believers in ever rising prices? Edited December 27, 2005 by Young Goat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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