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ianbeale

Hpc Confidence Index Dec 05

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The HPC confidece index was set up at the beginning of NOV 05. Its purpose is to provide a MOM indication to monitor changes in sentiment of the members of this site by answering the question below

Do you think that HPC is delivering to your expectations within your timescale?

Current indicators are as follows (positive means the HPC is going well - sentiment improving)

Latest HPC Confidence Index result = minus 3.57% ( calc - 50% - no vote for NOV 05)

MOM improvement = data not yet available (calc -NOV 05 - OCT 05)

3 Monthly improvement = data not yet available (calc - NOV 05 - AUG 05)

12 Monthly improvement = data not yet available (calc - NOV 05 - NOV 04)

Prevous poll results

NOV 05 http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...onfidence+index

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I think its starting to kick off now. I think the 2.5% increase is bullsh** and prices are actually down.

I think their is also a standoff between buyers and sellers in some areas and I believe the sellers will lose eventually or just not sell. Some people will HAVE to sell eventually - especially people moving or in financial trouble.

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I can't vote (Trolls are not allowed to)

But I would vote no, not delivering as I don't think we are having a crash.

LL, Surely you should be voting YES to this particular question?!

i.e your expectations of a crash are non existant and hence by answering NO, you're actually saying that you're seeing a crash

:D

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ECB is planing several rates hike

FED is planing several rates hike

BoE isn't planning any rate cut, maybe a hike if inflation goes up again

Gold over 500 usd/oz

Russian central bank said it will increase its gold reserve to 10%

Asian bank may follow...

Drop in paper money confidence and surge in inflation will increase long term rates

:D

Iran is going to annouce it will trade its crude oil in euro in March 06, after Benmarke steps in FED office :lol::lol:

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ian,

I think this is a great idea, but I do not think your question is robust enough to give consistant voting patterns, because it asks people of consider two variables in the one question, namely their expections and their current perception of the market. It would be easier to understand and respond to if the question was,

Do you expect the market of rise or fall over the next three months?

a) rise

B) Fall

Edited by FTBagain

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ian,

I think this is a great idea, but I do not think your question is robust enough to give consistant voting patterns, because it asks people of consider two variables in the one question, namely their expections and their current perception of the market. It would be easier to understand and respond to if the question was,

Do you expect the market of rise or fall over the next three months?

a) rise

B) Fall

I purposely made this question quite non specific in such away that it taht each voter could interpret it to their own aspirations in order to capture the general mood of members on this site. I feel that that the agenda of each member is quite complex and cannot be measured in terms of house price falls alone(albeit that is a big part). I expect it to be quite volatile for the first couple of months as a bit of a backlash against the negative figures produced in the first month of november. Hopefully the same members will return MOM and vote honestly and openly, this should provide consistant meaningfull results. I am happy to run with this for a few months and see how it pans out. Charts to follow when iv'e got enough data. Thanks for the support. IB

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I purposely made this question quite non specific in such away that it taht each voter could interpret it to their own aspirations in order to capture the general mood of members on this site. I feel that that the agenda of each member is quite complex and cannot be measured in terms of house price falls alone(albeit that is a big part). I expect it to be quite volatile for the first couple of months as a bit of a backlash against the negative figures produced in the first month of november. Hopefully the same members will return MOM and vote honestly and openly, this should provide consistant meaningfull results. I am happy to run with this for a few months and see how it pans out. Charts to follow when iv'e got enough data. Thanks for the support. IB

Keep away from the ol' vic you slaaag

ahem.

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I think also that this is a confidence survey, not a survey of what is happening.

I think Im a great shag but it does not mean I am, does it?

The site hits info at the bottom of the page show a rise in visits this month and last - so more and more people are thinkng the way we do :)

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Guest Bart of Darkness

I can't vote (Trolls are not allowed to)

But I would vote no, not delivering as I don't think we are having a crash.

Who the feck cares what you think anyway?

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originally I voted no when the topic first came up...but after the recent events I think I'll have to change my mind and say yes....and then some!!! :lol:

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I think it's on it's way. As afore mentioned recent events have helped by removing false market pressure i.e. sipps and btl taxation.

How many 4 / 5 BTL home owners are going to be stretched to pay the £25K yearly tax now due, tax at present 0.

My heart bleeds.

I wait in anticipation.

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I think it's on it's way. As afore mentioned recent events have helped by removing false market pressure i.e. sipps and btl taxation.

How many 4 / 5 BTL home owners are going to be stretched to pay the £25K yearly tax now due, tax at present 0.

My heart bleeds.

I wait in anticipation.

sorry music man, have i missed something, whats all this abouth a 25k tax bill?

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sorry music man, have i missed something, whats all this abouth a 25k tax bill?

I'm not sure about what he means either!

Also, do you think maybe for the next poll it might be worth doing something like:

What do you think prices will do in the next year?

Go up >10%

Go up 5-10%

Go up 0-5%

Stay flat

Drop 0-5%

Drop 5-10%

Drop 10-20% etc?

Apologies if it has been asked before.

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I'm not sure about what he means either!

Also, do you think maybe for the next poll it might be worth doing something like:

What do you think prices will do in the next year?

Go up >10%

Go up 5-10%

Go up 0-5%

Stay flat

Drop 0-5%

Drop 5-10%

Drop 10-20% etc?

Apologies if it has been asked before.

please see post 10 and 11 in this thread

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I can't vote (Trolls are not allowed to)

But I would vote no, not delivering as I don't think we are having a crash.

Quality... well I am being offered 20% drops against any new build here in devon..

Just got to ask...:)

cashback anyone...??? anyone...

don't forget.. London has only gone up about 60% in 7 years..

rubbish...

can I say... if a troll is soneone who does not agree with the general consensus..

Why the hell do they not have a vote..??

this sort of thing has to change if this site is to be taken seriously...

lol..

christmas..

Edited by apom

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Guest The_Oldie

can I say... if a troll is soneone who does not agree with the general consensus..

Why the hell do they not have a vote..??

this sort of thing has to change if this site is to be taken seriously...

A troll is not someone who does not agree with the general consensus, a troll is someone (usually an employee of an EA or other VI company and posting under multiple identities) who registers and posts here purely to disrupt and discredit this site.

The (deliberately provocative) post you quoted was by "London Landlady" AKA Paranoid, AKA Happy Homeowner, AKA Angus D Bitters.......

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=21008

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can I say... if a troll is soneone who does not agree with the general consensus..

Why the hell do they not have a vote..??

this sort of thing has to change if this site is to be taken seriously...

Evidently you`re not a full browser of the threads, just stick to your own little corner do you ?

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A troll is not someone who does not agree with the general consensus, a troll is someone (usually an employee of an EA or other VI company and posting under multiple identities) who registers and posts here purely to disrupt and discredit this site.

Is there any evidence that they are employed by VI's rather than just delusional believers in ever rising prices?

Edited by Young Goat

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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