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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by FTBagain

  1. Saw this buried away on the business section of BBC News. A good example of a business in trouble as a result of the banking crisis. and Not much hope there then. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16432728
  2. Could serious bearish sentiment this quarter and / or a significant 'event' in the Eurozone mute that bounce back you are predicting?
  3. Just checked the Spanish 10 bond yield - 5.43% well below the November level, so the markets seem quite cool about it at the moment. Of course that could change real quick...
  4. We have seen this tale many times before, but the threatened collapse has never really materialised. Of course, if the European economy does go into recession and takes ours down with it then rising unemployment could see a lot of families go under. Really sad for them, especially if there are children involved, but it will remind us that debt is bad, very bad, and saving is good. This would likely see an increase in forced sellers on the market, but there is no sign of that yet, nor if I am honest any time soon.
  5. Fitch have downgraded France's outlook for its AAA credit rating to 'negative' from 'stable'. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16226543
  6. Libor is starting to get more widely noticed. Bullionvault highlighted it in their daily around up today and it is being reported as having hit 1.09% today by bankrate.com http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_bullion_121320115 http://www.bankrate.com/rates/interest-rates/1-year-libor.aspx The Bullainvault report also highlights that the banks are selling or lending their gold out to raise cash to cover risks elsewhere. Credit Crunch II developing?
  7. And they are still no better than the rest of us at predicting risks... which I thought was the point of your original point, hence my comment. I.e. if they had better predictive abilities they would be ahead of everyone else, even without the access, was the point I was trying to make. Poorly, obviously. Anyway, my poor effort of a prediction is that the banks are doomed, I tellya their doomed.
  8. I'm not a building expert, but check out picture 9. There appears to be a flue sticking up to the right of the chimney. It's pretty small. Mind you it looks like an awful set up to me. Lots of burn, scould and if that big pipe / flue were bashed or damaged CO1 / CO2 / smoke risks I would have thought.
  9. If they did have more predictive ability than anyone else they'd be traders and richer than anyone else. But to get back to the banks, I kinda think that the focus is beginning to move in their direction again. I wonder how long it will be before we see more issues in that direction. Here's an interesting little snippet from Robert Peston. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16109444
  10. Very good point, but then the ratings agencies not exactly known for been ahead of the curve...
  11. Yup, and the markets will have had a chance to read the details of the deal. It'll be interesting to see if they think the Euro will still be around in a years time or whether they'll pitch it into the history books. IMF has already come out and said it is not enough. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16132177 Interesting week ahead...
  12. I agree that the debt matrix has changed, but I would suggest that the rate reflects the risk so we are still some way from risk levels seen after the fall of Lehmans. To be fair the a more accurate measure would be the spread between the Central Bank base rates and the Libor. Base rates were a little higher when Lehman went up in smoke so it is likely that the banking system would freeze up at something below 3.5% given the current ultra low base rates. Precisely, what that rate is only time will tell. The only thing we can say is that the trend is not good...
  13. I read somewhere recently that the main reason that the Euro still had any kind of value on the Forex is Euro based companies / individuals selling assets and moving them back into the Eurozone. Didn't seem to make much sence at the time, unless they were covering losses / risks elesewhere. This highlights another possible reason, anticipation of the return of the German Mark. Cameron, could yet have made a good decision...
  14. I agree, but what really p1sses me off is that many of these ultra rich manage to avoid paying tax at all or get away paying very little at all. It is the feel that we are NOT in it together that gets me. I would suggest that if we are going to pay income tax, then it should be the same for all. No loop holes, no tax havens just a flat rate for everyone. Then we would be sharing the load. Chances of that actually happening, when members of the cabinet including, allegedly, the chancellor, zero. :angry: These figgure all suggest that the rich are very good at building up their wealth but not so good at spending it. So much for the 'trickle down effect'.
  15. Sounds like he is trying to cut numbers without having to waste capital on redundancy payments. Which is fair enough by me, because we tax payers are already in way too deep with the other lame duck banks without having to bail out Barclays, so fire away I say. Having said it also sounds like he has quite a few "jerks" to get shot of. Which would be funny if it wasn't for the fact that the Banks have got us all in such deep water. Better late than never I guess.
  16. Yup. Five banks and seven building societies. http://www.which.co.uk/news/2011/10/british-banks-downgraded-by-rating-agency-267355/ World didn't then either. This is going to take awhile, but at some point the sinking ship will roll over.
  17. No mention of the down grade on the box, wall to wall coverage of the EU solution and UK isolation. Moody's sneaked that one under the radar... Would have been big news on any other day.
  18. These figures look interesting, but they could just be a pre-Xmas dip. If they keep going into Jan / Feb then I would say there is some happening.
  19. Good point I wonder if there are any linked investigations going on over here?
  20. Here are the latest weekly LIBOR rates according to "this is money". * 6 December: 1.05% * 30 November: 1.04% * 24 November: 1.03% * 17 November: 1.01% * 10 November: 1.00% * 24 October: 0.98% * 17 October: 0.97% * 10 October: 0.96% * 3 October: 0.95% Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-1645325/LIBOR-Latest-inter-bank-lending-rate-charts.html#ixzz1g9U5gORM Not exactly post Lehman levels yet, it got to about 3.5 % according to this artical from FT Alphaville. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/03/12/53515/why-letting-lehman-go-did-crush-the-financial-markets/ I would suggest that we have away to go yet before things get really interesting...
  21. German paranoia about inflation. Think Weimar Republic, the rise the Nazis, WWII etc... And don't forget that the ECB is strongly influenced and underpinned by Germany.
  22. More infor mation. Seems the Fed is concerned about contagion. Link
  23. If I remember rightly there were similar happenings just before Northern Rock blew up, wasn't there? Another question has just occured. I read somewhere that a banks share value contributed to its solvency because it affected how much it could raise via a share issue. So could this bank be under pressure because of the battering bank shares are currently taking?
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