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House Price Crash Forum


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About Waitingforthesun

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    HPC Poster

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    Paris, France
  1. First, I think Bears should treat Bulls' points of views with more respect; if there were only Bears on HPC, this website would be useless because there would be no debate. Moreover, Bears should admit that Bulls have been proved to be right so far by the unexpected strengh of the UK housing market. Second, there is something you are maybe not realising: there is a very strong labour market in the UK. That's why so many "immigrants" are coming, because UK economy is creating jobs and there is a shortage of workers. In Poland, in France, there is high unemployment. Immigrants do not choose to
  2. I think you should not blame the other the "mistake" you did Nobody knows the future for sure, so ultimately you have to take your decision and take your responsability If you buy and price crashes, don't blame Realtors If you don't buy and price goes up, don't blame Moneyweek columnists I don't think you need "courage" to buy a house, especially today, all you need to do is do what everybody else do, sign 2 pieces of paper (purchase contract, mortgage contract) and then it's done I think you need more courage NOT to buy today, when everybody tells you "buy now or you will miss the boat"
  3. Was it not exactly the same situation in UK in 2004 ? However, a single rate cut succeed to change opinion, and to make BTL and other speculators that it was time to buy again ! All these articles I am reading about US are cheering me of course, but I remember I read exactly the same stuff on HPC.com during 2005 (articles about new built glut, order cancellation, breaking chain, "why won't it sell", "worst house prixe fall over a decade" etc...) What do you think Benmarke is going to do when the official statistic, of Federal Housing Office (which is a moving average I guesse, since it rec
  4. I see that like most speculators you believe in the so-called "Greenspan put" (FED will lower rate at any problem and flood the markets with liquidity to keep bubbles inflating" and the US is simply "too big to fail". Of course Benmarke knows what he is doing, and he may cut rate very aggressively like Greenspan did in 2001-2002 But last time, US dollar was a strong currency, the US budget was in surplus, US T-bonds were hold by Japanese... Of course a recession in US would hurt China and the rest of Asia, but theu know the dollar will fall one day, the longer the worse And Chinese have t
  5. This is exactly what I am afraid of The only chance would be that it leads to a dollar collapse In that case, our faith is in the hands of the Chinese... not very reassuring
  6. I am also a real-estate-bubble-forum-addict Even worse, I am addicted to 2 web sites: HPC and a French website (www.lesechos.fr) I read HPC almost every (working) day, and I post on Les Echos almost every (working) day, The only times (for the last two years!) I could stop surfing were when I had really important things to do - the birth of my first child - when I searched for a new job A few years, I was really convinced there would be an HPC, and when the housing market started to go south in 2004 S2 and 2005 S1, I really though - " this is it ! " Now, I am very confused and I do n
  7. What do you mean by a nominal fall > 10 % over the next 3 years ? > 10% each year (ie nominal drop of 30%) or over the three years (ie drop of 3-4% each year) ?
  8. WILL BE (according to the commercials) or ARE (in reality) ???
  9. I also read that in Australia there are a lot of taxes advantages in you invest in BTL Income tax rate is high (near 40%) but you can deduct interest you pay your BTL mortgage, so negative CF can become a positive CF after tax shield is impacted Fortunately, I am sure Gordon Brown would never create new tax advantage for investing in BTL
  10. OK, but why did not it happen in Sydney, where there are so many BTL with negative CF (I remember reading in an article that rental yield fell to a low 2,5% compared to interest rate at 6%... ouch!). Prices have been falling 5% yoy for the last 3 years ... but -15% from peak did not really destroyed the previous increases in price 100%+... It seems BTL did not panick flooding the market with their portfolio, but that they stubornly stick to their selling price and hold their properties, waiting for the market to turn up in a few years. So far, we did not see a crash like for stocks (real estat
  11. What is true is that the market cycle has been much longer than the other ones before (as shown in studies published by OECD and IMF). Since last time the price boom was followed by a bust, many people think that the current boom will finish the same way: by a crash. But all the warnings were proved wrong because they were too early, and the crash argument has lost some of its credibility towards the public. Especially when the market turned-up again after August 2005. But you the story of the child who was always making jokes crying fo the coming wolf to frighten the people of his village.
  12. Up, indeed, but if repo in 2006 at 18,000 approx same level as 2001, it's much higher than 2004 in percentage (more than double) but by amount, it is still low compared to historical average ...
  13. Thanks, in fact I wanted an estimate of how much is deducted from a gross salary for taxes and social contribution to get a net salary - so it's approx 30 % less
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