WatchingFromTheHills Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Not sure if anyone else has noticed this - or if it's a well-known phenomenon and I've just missed it - but there seem to be a lot of "instant" sold listings going up on Rightmove. I see quite a few properties coming up on my alerts as "new", but when I look at them, they're Under Offer or SSTC. I suspect this is a marketing tool by agents trying to big up what they can do for potential vendors - "Look! We sold this house without even trying! Come join us!" However, what I also notice is that these properties are often relatively reasonably priced - even if they're still very expensive and a bit mad. At least one I've seen in SW London is around £250k "cheaper" than a comparable property still on the market. Is this a process of correction on the part of the agents? Are they using these posting to nudge existing and potential vendors into being more realistic about asking prices? "Look! This house sold instantly. Yours has been on the market for months. Can you spot the difference?" Generally, agents just want to sell houses. If they don't, they don't get paid. A £250k drop is significant for a vendor, but much less so for an agent who takes a fraction of that in commission and would rather get paid something, whatever it is, than nothing. I think there's definitely a sense of entitlement from vendors out there. It said in the newspaper that prices were going up. Where's my million quid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 For me, there are two questions here. The first is the actual question of this thread "is prime London crashing?". And the answer to that is a pretty clear yes. The second, is what does this mean for they type of houses across greater London that most normal people might actually buy ?. And unfortunately, I think the answer to that is "not a lot". Prime London is a world all of its own, that has more in common with other "investment" markets like shares or precious metals than the wider UK, or even London, housing market. It has no real relevance to what happens anywhere else. In the wider greater London market, the problem is still fundamentally the same. More and more people trying to cram into a finite space, causing demand for that space to rise. In terms of prices (morality and social cohesion are another matter of course) it actually doesn't matter much how many people can't afford the prices. The only two variables that matter are how many properties are available, and how many people can afford them. With interest rates on the floor and likely to remain low, and London unlikely to lose it's national (and arguably global) pull any time soon, then the prospects for ordinary Londoners are pretty bleak when it comes to Housing. And with us collectively having just rejected the chance to do something about it at the ballot box, even the political situation supports the status quo. I'd like to see something change, but I just don't see it. A real world example for me, is that I have a rightmove search running for 3 bed houses cutting across a couple of South East London's cheaper areas up to £450k. Before Christmas, there were 100 available. Today there are 32. That's what's happening on the ground right now, and I just don't see how that will change. The mad rises might stop soon (I thought we'd reached that point last summer, but it's all started up again since the new year), and we might see a small dip when they do, but I think that's about as good as it's going to get. Even a Grexit isn't going to make much difference imho, although of course if that results in contagion across the Eurozone (which I think it wont, which is why the institutions are more willing to let Greece fall now than before) then all bets are off. Personally, while Prime London may well crash and burn, I don't think average prices in the London suburbs will ever be more than 10-15% lower than they are today. That's just my view of course. Nobody can no for sure what is coming, and I'd personally be wary of setting too much store by anyone who claims that they do. For someone who has so little to say, why so many words? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 For someone who has so little to say, why so many words? Troll pretending to be clever ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agentimmo Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Personally, while Prime London may well crash and burn, I don't think average prices in the London suburbs will ever be more than 10-15% lower than they are today. That's just my view of course. Nobody can no for sure what is coming, and I'd personally be wary of setting too much store by anyone who claims that they do. Hmmm...I assume you are under 30 and never lived through the 90s crash or were too young to take it all in? http://news.fool.co.uk//news/foolseyeview/2005/fev050505c.htm Plenty of other sites give details if you run it through a search engine. And 2010, a mini-crash...so not so long ago. Your words that I've highlighted in bold are just plain nonsense, imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Troll pretending to be clever ? It's like a footballer saying "in no way shape or form". Yadda yadda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 It's like a footballer saying "in no way shape or form". Yadda yadda. Looks like another. Yes, I agree, but you're wrong posts. A salesman s**t sandwich. can spot them a mile away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Would anyone on here disagree, looking at this thread and the shires crashing thread that there is clearly something (good) going on in the UK housing market ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason the 4th Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 No Argeminto, I remember the 90s crash only too well. Prices in my part of London fell 40% or so in nominal terms, which was made even more savage by the relatively high inflation of the time. But the early 90s is not now. That crash was driven by high interest rates causing forced Zellers and a glut of supply with no demand. Of course, a sudden and sharp rise in interest rates would do the same now, and given the low starting point, they don't need to go to15% to do it.But if there's one thing we know about the current state of play, it's that the powers that be will do all they can to avoid that outcome . They are also committed to the creation of sufficient credit to support the status quo. In that environment, there needs to be a major trigger to bring about a crash. As I say, I don't think a Grexit will be that trigger,and I don't believe that the powers that be will voluntarily turn the credit tapps down enough to trigger a crash. So where will it come from. And C of N. Someone having a different view to you does not make them a trol. I live in London, and see first hand the damage done by high house prices. I would love to see something change, but I just don't see how it will anytime soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 No Argeminto, I remember the 90s crash only too well. Prices in my part of London fell 40% or so in nominal terms, which was made even more savage by the relatively high inflation of the time. Now the problem is driven by relatively high house prices. Its the same problem, X * Y = Z. When Z is too high the market crashes. Z is much higher now relatively speaking than in the last decent crash. I suggest going back to primary school to learn, Rithmetic. And C of N. Someone having a different view to you does not make them a trol. I live in London, and see first hand the damage done by high house prices. I would love to see something change, but I just don't see how it will anytime soon. That's fine and dandy, but this is the HOUSEPRICECRASH web site. Things have changed significantly. Prices are insane. FLS has been withdrawn. MMR has been introduced. Russian and Chinese buyers and non-existent. sales volumes have collapsed and the media are reporting big falls for some areas. The election has come and gone too. You probably want mumsnet, they will probably agree with you, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blod Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Now the problem is driven by relatively high house prices. Its the same problem, X * Y = Z. When Z is too high the market crashes. Z is much higher now relatively speaking than in the last decent crash. I suggest going back to primary school to learn, Rithmetic. That's fine and dandy, but this is the HOUSEPRICECRASH web site. Things have changed significantly. Prices are insane. FLS has been withdrawn. MMR has been introduced. Russian and Chinese buyers and non-existent. sales volumes have collapsed and the media are reporting big falls for some areas. The election has come and gone too. You probably want mumsnet, they will probably agree with you, Harsh, but fair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_growlers_* Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Reduced today from £2,850,000 to £2,695,000. 5% reduction...meh! Why bother? Just to trigger the 'reduced' view on the portals and attract attention? He needs to be more aggressive, cut his losses and get ahead of the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damik Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 (edited) 5% reduction...meh! Why bother? Just to trigger the 'reduced' view on the portals and attract attention? He needs to be more aggressive, cut his losses and get ahead of the market. Indeed. This place will NOT sell for the current price without at least 15%/20% reduction. So this place has not had any interest, viewings and offers ... Edited June 19, 2015 by Damik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 That's fine and dandy, but this is the HOUSEPRICECRASH web site. Things have changed significantly. Prices are insane. FLS has been withdrawn. MMR has been introduced. Russian and Chinese buyers and non-existent. sales volumes have collapsed and the media are reporting big falls for some areas. The election has come and gone too. So? Everyone who states a view, contrary to yours, is a troll!!!??? For goodness sake! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason the 4th Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 My arithmetic is just to e thanks C of N. I agree with you that prices are a function of prices and interest rates.. At the moment, people are able to meet current prices on that basis. For prices to significantly fall, something needs to significantly change in that affordability equation for those who have already bought.I in the absence of forced sellers, the market wl just stop if buyers dry up.. The impact on those locked out sadly doesn't come into it I just don't see what will bring about forced sellers given the current economic, and (more importantly) political climate. And as for your Mumsnet" comment, i'm not concerned about people agreeing with me, the most valuable debate is often with people of a different view. But calling someone a trol because they have a different view doesn't promote a good debate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I have long said what is needed for an HPC is not rates or immigration stopping or building etc The next global econoic shock will be it. They can't slash int rates to restart the economy. #turningjapanese Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assume The Opposite Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 In the private estate where I am (Northamptonshire) there is a 4 bed house up for sale at £260,000. It's the most expensive house in the whole estate but one of the oldest. There are 4-5 bed houses for less money that are newer and better quality. I know it's not London, but it looks like they are hoping for £260, ignoring the prices around them? Being greedy looking for HPI gains? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 (edited) So? Everyone who states a view, contrary to yours, is a troll!!!??? For goodness sake! Dont be daft. I dont even agree with half the stuff I say. Edited June 19, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 (edited) In the private estate where I am (Northamptonshire) there is a 4 bed house up for sale at £260,000. It's the most expensive house in the whole estate but one of the oldest. There are 4-5 bed houses for less money that are newer and better quality. I know it's not London, but it looks like they are hoping for £260, ignoring the prices around them? Being greedy looking for HPI gains? Any links ? If you check the previous sale prices of a lot of those houses from around 1999, they are probably worth about 150K in real terms....then if you look at wage inflation.... Edited June 19, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 (edited) I have long said what is needed for an HPC is not rates or immigration stopping or building etc The next global econoic shock will be it. They can't slash int rates to restart the economy. #turningjapanese If they'd avoided the silly 2012 nouveau london mega bubble ( see what I did there with my fancy pants pretentious london chatter ) madness, raised rates a bit and taken some of the pain already, with rates maybe sat at 2% now they might have been able to lower rates again and avoid some of the shock all in one go. The trouble is, we have successive governments who think it's their remit to try and get re-elected by "buying votes", instead of running the country as best they can in the hope that they deserve to get re-elected. Edited June 19, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Raising rates (fat chance!) with HTB will not make one iota of difference. HPs are function of lending. Always and everywhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 No Argeminto, I remember the 90s crash only too well. Prices in my part of London fell 40% or so in nominal terms, which was made even more savage by the relatively high inflation of the time. But the early 90s is not now. That crash was driven by high interest rates causing forced Zellers and a glut of supply with no demand. Of course, a sudden and sharp rise in interest rates would do the same now, and given the low starting point, they don't need to go to15% to do it.But if there's one thing we know about the current state of play, it's that the powers that be will do all they can to avoid that outcome . They are also committed to the creation of sufficient credit to support the status quo. In that environment, there needs to be a major trigger to bring about a crash. As I say, I don't think a Grexit will be that trigger,and I don't believe that the powers that be will voluntarily turn the credit tapps down enough to trigger a crash. So where will it come from. And C of N. Someone having a different view to you does not make them a trol. I live in London, and see first hand the damage done by high house prices. I would love to see something change, but I just don't see how it will anytime soon. Enough ordinary punters concluding that if they vote for Brexit they won`t have to compete with half of Poland for housing and jobs should do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 (edited) Raising rates (fat chance!) with HTB will not make one iota of difference. HPs are function of lending. Always and everywhereLong term historical trends say they're not, except for bubbleshttp://www.degruyter.com/dg/viewarticle/j$002fev.2006.3.4$002fev.2006.3.4.1145$002fev.2006.3.4.1145.xml Edited June 19, 2015 by Si1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fairyland Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 I am not sure how HTB has driven HPI because Under HTB you can borrow a max of 4.5 X salary. Using HTB equity scheme is similar to shared ownership in the sense you own just 80% of the house. IRS for the mortgage scheme are much higher which restricts affordability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 (edited) I am not sure how HTB has driven HPI because Under HTB you can borrow a max of 4.5 X salary. Using HTB equity scheme is similar to shared ownership in the sense you own just 80% of the house. IRS for the mortgage scheme are much higher which restricts affordability. It just gave ajolt to the margins whilst also indicating the govt will underwrite house prices. That's all. Edited June 19, 2015 by Si1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 (edited) I am not sure how HTB has driven HPI Errr....till HTB prices were flat, even with FLS....18 months later asking prices up 20-30%. All the schemes have caused HPI, or at least stopped it happening. Supporting the bottom of the pyramid has had the woprst effect of all. Edited June 19, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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