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Jason the 4th

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About Jason the 4th

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    HPC Poster
  1. While hardly "prime", things are finally noticeably dropping in my part of London (around Crystal Palace). Anything that isn't at the most desirable end of the local market appears to be down 10% or so over the past year. Decent family houses and victoriana flats on the best roads still seem to be fetching similar prices to this time last year, but stuff that might be a bit harder to shift is noticeably falling....... finally!
  2. Yikes. What kind of muppet does someone have to be to want to boycott businesses for the "crime" of supporting a homeless charity
  3. When I read the thread title, all I could think of was the idea of a song with the thread title as it's name, using the tune from "don't fear the reaper"
  4. And as a postscript to the above, the call was also a great opportunity to have some fun at the expense of an EA
  5. He was surprisingly matter of fact. He called out of the blue (I was registered there as a buyer last time I was looking), and said that if I had anything to sell, now was the time to do it as the market was going to "dip" meaning that now was the best opportunity to get the best price. I thought it was Probably just a way to get stock onto the books, but nonetheless It was interesting to see an agent use an approach of "list with us ti get the best price before prices dip" rather than "list with us because we have buyers queing up to pay a gazillion pounds for your property"
  6. I posted this on another thread, but probably worth adding this anecdote here today as well. I had an Estate Agent call me the other week, asking if I was interested in selling. He explained that prices were going to fall, so if I was looking to sell now was the time to do it. I responded by thanking him for the information, and confirming that I had nothing to sell, but was considering whether to make a purchase now or hold fire for a year or so. He tried to backtrack pretty quickly when I thanked him for his useful information that confirmed that buying now was not the right thing to do
  7. Well, only a small anecdote, but perhaps telling. I had an Estate Agent call me the other week, asking if I was interested in selling. He explained that prices were going to fall, so if I was looking to sell now was the time to do it. I responded by thanking him for the information, and confirming that I had nothing to sell, but was considering whether to make a purchase now or hold fire for a year or so. He tried to backtrack pretty quickly when I thanked him for his useful information that confirmed that buying now was not the right thing to do
  8. I must admit, I'm inclined to agree with you. His comment was that FTBs had been staying away to an extent as investors were dominating at least the bottom end of the market, and that with the stamp duty "deadline" now passed, they would come back. Didn't make much sense to me either, but that struck me as the gist of his argument.
  9. Yep, the last three years have been mad in my part of London, and prices have close to doubled. But, I have had a similar experience to Monkey Puzzle recently. There's a particular local agent I keep in touch with, as he is likely to list a particular house I would be interested in over the next few months. He was saying that the market has been very very busy until about 2-3 weeks ago, when it suddenly went completely dead pretty much without warning. He's been in the business seven years or so, and said it's the quietest he's ever seen it. He was of course bullish about how the return of FTBs in the next Month or two mean that this is a short term blip, and we wont know for a while whether her's right or not. But the admission that things had gone so quiet was a surprise, and if it continues, maybe things are belatedly about to get interesting
  10. As a Londoner too, I would agree with all this. Judging from similar sales, my place was worth about 180k pre 2008. At it's trough, it was probably about 140k. Last sale for something similar (it's a very ordinary property on a private estate of close to 200 identical homes, so comparison is very easy) was just North of 300k, and asking on stuff new to market (not the same as sold of course) higher still. If I was going to have sold based on an assumed top, I would have cashed out at between 250-270k. That would clearly have been the wrong move. But like you, I think falling prices would be beneficial for exactly the reasons you state. Agree here too. It's why my original post said STR is imho generally a bad move if you have a place you like. If you hate where you live, or want to move to a different part of the country, or even want a different lifestyle, there are all sorts of reasons why cashing out might be the right move for some people. But looking at it from "purely the maths", it's imho a very high risk strategy to STR with the hope of buying something similar or better for less down the line. Certainly that aproach wouldn't be for me. Agree with all of this. With a little one on the way, I really wouldn't want to be living in the PRS as it operates currently. The fact that many people have to is a national scandal, and I think and hope that there will be changes to how the PRS works in the next 5-10 years for precisely the reasons you state. Yes, for myself I am indeed "happy either way". I'm fortunate enough that in my current home, negative equity is a mathematical impossibility. I will be looking to trade up at some point, but at current prices would be looking at a sub 20% LTV so am in a fortunate (and I make no bones about the fact that it is exactly that, fortunate) position. I still maintain that full on HPC is unlikely without large numbers of forced forced sellers, but would agree that the fact that government seems much less committed to high house prices than previously is significant. The BTL changes could also bring about forced sellers without a recession or higher interest rates, a scenario I'd previously considered unlikely. So while it's fair to say I'm a lot less bearish than you, my view on likely events from here has turned a lot more "HPC positive" in recent months.
  11. The problem with STR imho, is that no matter how insane prices seem, it's still a gamble. Timak himself said that he thought £300k would be t "peak of all peaks", but that prices are now £60k above that. If he'd cashed in at that "peak of all peaks", he'd now be needing a drop of 20%+ (by the time transaction costs etc. are factored in) just to break even. And if he lost that gamble, he'd potentially be struggling to get back to where he was previously. I personally take a view that if you own a home that you like and can afford, then the risks involved in STR are just too great to even consider it. You risk losing the security of home ownership for a potential gain that may not materialise. And if you lose the "bet" (for that is effectively what it is), you face at best a big financial hit, and at worst never being able to get back what you previously had. That's just too much downside risk imho.
  12. I'd agree with this, and it's probably why personally I'd never STL for a meaningful period (selling to be cash rich and buy again straight away is another mater imho)). Of course, if you don't sell right at the top and prices rise a bit before falling, the level of falls you need to make it work increase even further. Imho there's just too much risk involved. Yes, you might make a few quid, but the potential downside of not being able to buy back in at the same level is just too big a risk to take for me.
  13. I wouldn't worry about the hostility from some quarters, a lot of people on here are pretty hacked of (with good reason in many ways) about the way that things have gone in recent years, and sometimes that's reflected in the way they react to people looking to buy. In terms of your situation, I certainly don't envy you. The level of pricing makes it a nightmare for FTBs in the South East, and knowing what to do for the best is tricky. Prices look insane. but as you mention, the powers that be don't seem too keen to see them drop. Personally (and there are many valid and often different views on this issue), I think that short of mass unemployment, it's all about interest rates. While they stay ultra low (I'm thinking 2.5% ish or less) we're unlikely to see significant price falls. If we see 5%+ interest rates, there will be carnage in the market as people just wont be able to service the debts at those rates. There is of course the argument that the very fact that 5%+ interest rates will cause carnage means we're unlikely to see that happen, but personally I'm far from convinced by that approach. What that means for you depends on a number of factors that are unique to you. How secure is your job ?. How easy would it be to find something else paying similar money if you lost your job?. How long do you want to stay in the house you buy now?. What are your longer term plans in terms of what area you want to live in?. Do you want to start a family, and if so, when ?. Your income is strong enough to support the kind of borrowing you're talking about. At 49k, you're looking at take home of close to 3k per month (perhaps less if you're paying into a pension). If your job is secure, the initial Monthly payments are not going to be a huge issue, and you can mitigate interest rate risk by taking a long term fix (there are 10 year fixes at about 3.8% for 80% ltv). You're also in a strong position in the sense that you''re looking at 2 bed houses, rather than pokey 1 bed flats. The second one you linked to may not be a dream house, but is has loads of space for you, would be relatively spacious even for a couple, and even having one child in there would (while perhaps not ideal) be far from a disaster. That means that while it would be a bit of a pain financially if you were to get "stuck" there due a drop in value, it would be far from the end of the world in terms of still being able to enjoy life. Personally (and this is a very subjective decision that only you can take rather than being influenced by strangers on the internet!), if my circumstances were similar to yours, I'd probably bite the bullet and buy (paying within reason whatever I needed to to secure the right house) if (and only if) my job was secure (and ideally if I was confident of being able to get another one paying similar money if I needed to) and I was happy to commit to the area long term. I'd go for a long term fix (probably 10 years) and then just forget about house prices etc. and enjoy life. But If I was worried about my job prospects, I'd be much more cautious about taking on that kind of debt. Yes, a house that you buy might fall in value, but you'll be paying off a mortgage , and moving towards a point where you eventually get housing that's close to free for the rest of your life. Given what you can afford (if you were talking about a studio flat my view might be very different), I'd probably rather take the (very real) risk of being "stuck" in a house worth less than I paid for it than I would take the equally real risk that prices keep going up and being priced out (or being able to afford much less) as a result. Whatever you decide, good luck. Like I say, I don't envy you, and wish you all the best.
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