the_duke_of_hazzard Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Very interesting, thanks for posting. I have access to a database with all the data on and SQL skills, so if anyone has anything they'd like to run against it let me know. For example, I wonder whether that 23.9% drop can be attributed to the falling off of 2m+ property sales. How are <1m+ doing? SW London does appear to be the epicentre of the crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Hey Duke, Thanks for the kind offer. I think answering your question for all of London would be very interesting. I am proposing a breakdown for properties at the £500k mark and then going up in £500k increments. Something like this: Up to £500k Between £500k and £1 Million Between £1 Million and £1.5 Million ... Anything above £10 Million What do you think? Could you run this against all London property with your IT skills? Would this be too much work? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I have access to a database with all the data on and SQL skills, so if anyone has anything they'd like to run against it let me know. For example, I wonder whether that 23.9% drop can be attributed to the falling off of 2m+ property sales. How are <1m+ doing? SW London does appear to be the epicentre of the crash. On second thought, perhaps it would be more useful going in £100k increments up until the £1.5 Million mark. The reason why I am suggesting this is because it would be very interesting to know where the inflection point is where property prices are neither falling nor rising. My guess would be around the £600k mark but I could also be wrong. Could you do this Duke? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 BTW, in case anyone missed this: flats in 1 St George Wharf are already selling BELOW the price they were purchased for in 2013: https://houseprices.io/?q=sw8+2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I have access to a database with all the data on and SQL skills, so if anyone has anything they'd like to run against it let me know. For example, I wonder whether that 23.9% drop can be attributed to the falling off of 2m+ property sales. How are <1m+ doing? SW London does appear to be the epicentre of the crash. That certainly sounds like it could be well worth doing and I'm sure that any breakdown of that you have the time to produce would be much appreciated. It might also be worth looking at somewhere like West London, where new build leaseholds have apparently gone up by 28.7%, in the same kind of detail for comparison? Although I suspect this is largely down to the relative supply of new builds (the number of sales for such are almost twice as high in South West London) there may be other interesting differences between the two areas. At some point the price falls from the one surely have to spill out into the other... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_duke_of_hazzard Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 That certainly sounds like it could be well worth doing and I'm sure that any breakdown of that you have the time to produce would be much appreciated. It might also be worth looking at somewhere like West London, where new build leaseholds have apparently gone up by 28.7%, in the same kind of detail for comparison? Although I suspect this is largely down to the relative supply of new builds (the number of sales for such are almost twice as high in South West London) there may be other interesting differences between the two areas. At some point the price falls from the one surely have to spill out into the other... I am working on a graphing interface to all this as it's more compelling. I'll keep you all posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverwhere Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I am working on a graphing interface to all this as it's more compelling. I'll keep you all posted. Awesome stuff. Thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B63 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Blackstone's Vice Chairman of Multi-Asset Investing Byron R. Wien presents his top 10 "surprises" for the upcoming 12 months. 8. High-end residential real estate in New York and London has a sharp downturn. Russian and Chinese buyers disappear from the market in both places. Low oil prices cause caution among Middle East buyers. Many expensive condominiums remain unsold, putting developers under financial stress http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-04/byron-wiens-reveals-top-10-predictions-expects-stocks-decline-after-predicting-15-ri Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B63 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 2016 looks all set up for a popcorn feast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frizzers Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 (edited) Blackstone's Vice Chairman of Multi-Asset Investing Byron R. Wien presents his top 10 "surprises" for the upcoming 12 months. 8. High-end residential real estate in New York and London has a sharp downturn. Russian and Chinese buyers disappear from the market in both places. Low oil prices cause caution among Middle East buyers. Many expensive condominiums remain unsold, putting developers under financial stress http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-04/byron-wiens-reveals-top-10-predictions-expects-stocks-decline-after-predicting-15-ri For a set of predictions billing itself as surprises that is dull inside-the-box pap. Most of them are already happening. Bet Byron R. Wien earns a packet too. (not having a go at you j666 btw but at the generic fluff this dude's coming out with. Edited January 4, 2016 by Frizzers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 For a set of predictions billing itself as surprises that is dull inside-the-box pap. Most of them are already happening. Bet Byron R. Wien earns a packet too. (not having a go at you j666 btw but at the generic fluff this dude's coming out with. It's nice to see the SW8 price crash becoming received wisdom though. I'm seeing this prediction in more and more places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silverfinger Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 For a set of predictions billing itself as surprises that is dull inside-the-box pap. Most of them are already happening. Bet Byron R. Wien earns a packet too. Thought exactly the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 BTW, in case anyone missed this: flats in 1 St George Wharf are already selling BELOW the price they were purchased for in 2013: https://houseprices.io/?q=sw8+2 tweeted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 BTW, in case anyone missed this: flats in 1 St George Wharf are already selling BELOW the price they were purchased for in 2013: https://houseprices.io/?q=sw8+2 What do the colours mean on that site? I.e.is green a rise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 What do the colours mean on that site? I.e.is green a rise? Good question, cant seem to find a key. There seems to be 2 shades of red. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Good question, cant seem to find a key. There seems to be 2 shades of red.I think it's...Green = price rise since last purchase in real terms Red* = price fall in nominal/real terms since last sale Black = no data for previous sales *poss 2 shades showing real and nominal falls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I think it's... Green = price rise since last purchase in real terms Red* = price fall in nominal/real terms since last sale Black = no data for previous sales *poss 2 shades showing real and nominal falls You are close! Green = price rise in both real and nominal terms Light Red = price rise in nominal terms but a fall in real terms Dark Red = price fall in both nominal and real terms Black = no previous data available (sometime around 1995 I believe) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Dark Red = price fall in both nominal and real terms Not too many of those but on verra Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 (edited) You are close! Green = price rise in both real and nominal terms Light Red = price rise in nominal terms but a fall in real terms Dark Red = price fall in both nominal and real terms Black = no previous data available (sometime around 1995 I believe) You forgot highlighted in yellow/cream denotes non standard sale (bought at auction /BTL mortgage/ bought via a company possibly commercial) This feature only goes back to 2013 Edited January 5, 2016 by long time lurking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Ok, new theory. Watching Prime London crash is fun but let's not forget to focus on all London. Prime London is crashing fairly heavily in price but at low volume so is crashing kind of slowly. 'All London' is just rolling over with small asking price falls BUT property sales will be at much higher volume so wider London is worth watching. Today is 5th Jan and in just one day 875 properties in London have either just been listed, or have had price reductions, on Rightmove. 875 properties in one day, after an already plentiful flow over Christmas (trust me, I've been watching). To be listed today, these people must have decided to sell before Christmas. We're now at the point when people have decided to try to sell, but they haven't realised just how much competition there is out there from other sellers. Wider London is the one to watch. This is where people who are moving up the ladder are calculating whether to rent out or keep their old property. The proper downturn starts when these people switch their mindset from 'I can't lose with property, I'll keep it and rent it out' to 'I'll cash in, prices can't go much higher'. This is what happens first IMHO, before you get BTL hoarders wedded to 'forever HPI' (h/t Venger) being forced to sell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Ok, new theory. Watching Prime London crash is fun but let's not forget to focus on all London. Prime London is crashing fairly heavily in price but at low volume so is crashing kind of slowly. 'All London' is just rolling over with small asking price falls BUT property sales will be at much higher volume so wider London is worth watching. Today is 5th Jan and in just one day 875 properties in London have either just been listed, or have had price reductions, on Rightmove. 875 properties in one day, after an already plentiful flow over Christmas (trust me, I've been watching). To be listed today, these people must have decided to sell before Christmas. We're now at the point when people have decided to try to sell, but they haven't realised just how much competition there is out there from other sellers. Wider London is the one to watch. This is where people who are moving up the ladder are calculating whether to rent out or keep their old property. The proper downturn starts when these people switch their mindset from 'I can't lose with property, I'll keep it and rent it out' to 'I'll cash in, prices can't go much higher'. This is what happens first IMHO, before you get BTL hoarders wedded to 'forever HPI' (h/t Venger) being forced to sell. Sorry, I don't want to rain on your parade but the 875 number is pretty meaningless if you don't provide us with an average number for that time of year. The sharp rise can be explained by something alluded to in your email: those who want to sell shortly before, during or after Christmas usually have to wait until the new year to get in touch with EAs. Isn't the rise due to sellers having to wait until the holidays end? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suntory Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Ok, new theory. Watching Prime London crash is fun but let's not forget to focus on all London. Prime London is crashing fairly heavily in price but at low volume so is crashing kind of slowly. 'All London' is just rolling over with small asking price falls BUT property sales will be at much higher volume so wider London is worth watching. Today is 5th Jan and in just one day 875 properties in London have either just been listed, or have had price reductions, on Rightmove. 875 properties in one day, after an already plentiful flow over Christmas (trust me, I've been watching). To be listed today, these people must have decided to sell before Christmas. We're now at the point when people have decided to try to sell, but they haven't realised just how much competition there is out there from other sellers. Wider London is the one to watch. This is where people who are moving up the ladder are calculating whether to rent out or keep their old property. The proper downturn starts when these people switch their mindset from 'I can't lose with property, I'll keep it and rent it out% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Sorry, I don't want to rain on your parade but the 875 number is pretty meaningless if you don't provide us with an average number for that time of year. The sharp rise can be explained by something alluded to in your email: those who want to sell shortly before, during or after Christmas usually have to wait until the new year to get in touch with EAs. Isn't the rise due to sellers having to wait until the holidays end? Fair point - I would love to be able to provide an average number but I can't. I would say to trust my intuition on this one, and I expect the RICS survey to provide proof when it is published (I'm expecting it next week). But here's an argument for why you should trust my intuition: the holiday period means sellers will have had to have been in touch with agents before Christmas about their strategy for listing or price reductions, for the agents to get in and do measurements and particulars as well as talk over stuff like the price and description. I was expecting a load of properties to be listed in time for Christmas Day and Boxing Day because agents have realised that lots of potential buyers use that period to look at what's on the market. That happened. But it's surprising that you get another dump of properties on Rightmove on 5th January before agents are back from holidays and able to add further listings. I think that this dump was the backlog of properties they weren't able to get up in time for Christmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Not too many of those but on verra I am surprised there are any. I thought it was different this time !!! There will be more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I am surprised there are any. I thought it was different this time !!! There will be more The ones highlighted in yellow/cream tell there own story Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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