Marina Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 It's getting a bit spooky now. History is definitely repeating itself. The latest is the Mirror laying off people because of low advertising revenues. Media businesses only recovered from the low advertising revenues caused throughout the economy by the last HPC about 10 years later. Throughout most of the 90s media buying was depressed. Now it's happening again. The signs are there for all to read. Job losses each and every day. Housing stagnant/falling. Consumer spending down. Cost/cutting and outsourcing (especially overseas) up. Next thing taxes will have to go up as tax revenues are down. Inflation is rising - combined with rising taxes - people have even less to spend. It's now a vicious downward spiral and nothing can stop it. I am actually getting more worried by the day. I always knew HPC would cause a recession. But this is turning into a rout. It doesn't matter a fig who says what now - what VI rubbish is printed in the press - this will end in a slump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backtoparents Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 A very poor time to be landed with a depreciating, immobile, illiquid asset bought on tick. /btp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'm forever knowing bubbles Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 A very poor time to be landed with a depreciating, immobile, illiquid asset bought on tick. /btp BTP - What a quality avatar Gavin Henson is one lucky fella, if a little stupid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Told You So Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 Im not sure if thats a sign of recession or the fact that online advertising is now accounting for a far bigger share of ad revenues, recently it was 5.8% when not that long ago its share was neglibable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 Marina, you are dead right. I just bailed out of my PEP and ISA. I would not have because the markets will eventually recover, but I want to buy a house, and that will happen long before the markets recover. So I have done my bit to drive the markets down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted October 19, 2005 Author Share Posted October 19, 2005 Im not sure if thats a sign of recession or the fact that online advertising is now accounting for a far bigger share of ad revenues, recently it was 5.8% when not that long ago its share was neglibable. It's a sign of recession. Online advertising is growing - gradually. And sure the world is changing. But this is recession territory. First thing that gets a hammering is the advertising budget. People never learn. Do you advertise your way out of declining business - or stop/reduce advertising and get less business. Most people go for the second option creating a self-fulfilling cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munimula Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 It's getting a bit spooky now. History is definitely repeating itself. The pattern of MEWing levels is almost identical to the last HPC crash, especially the increase that has just been reported, even as HPI goes negative - exactly the same last time. If this pattern follows history it will increase for a few more months and then dive into negative territory, mirroring the increase in repossesions that will likely be taking place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unamerican Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 It's a sign of recession. Online advertising is growing - gradually. And sure the world is changing. But this is recession territory. First thing that gets a hammering is the advertising budget. People never learn. Do you advertise your way out of declining business - or stop/reduce advertising and get less business. Most people go for the second option creating a self-fulfilling cycle. interesting point. what about all the estate agents advertising like crazy ? if what they are selling is overpriced then no advertising budget will shift it. also if consumers stop spending then surely advertising will not persuade them back only sales will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Told You So Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 Marina I have friends who work in recruitment in the following sectors - IT, Banking, Accountancy and New Media admittedly they are all London based but they are all very busy and in my view if people are recruiting then things really are not that bad. Yes consumers are thin on the ground but the economy if far bigger than them, I still think GDP will start to improve and IR's will be moving upwards next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 interesting point. what about all the estate agents advertising like crazy ? if what they are selling is overpriced then no advertising budget will shift it. also if consumers stop spending then surely advertising will not persuade them back only sales will. Agents have to maintain their advertising to maintain their instructions - people get a little peeved at the thought of handing over £1K's for and eventual sale if their property isn;t advertised and even more peeved if they have signed up with an agent and they don;t advertise and nobody comes round to view. There can be a few tell-tale signs though - smaller ads, B&W instead fo colour, fewer mailshots, etc. The penny drops sooner or later with the agents if their stock is not shifting at all and all they have done is gained instructions by overvaluing and filling their books with unsellable property - they then have to shift their approach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smurf1976 Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 Channel Ten, one of the major commercial TV networks in Australia, recently said that they too were suffering from a drop in advertising. So it's not just the UK where this is happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 Don't forget advertising drops are also often because there are now more places to advertse so a newspaper or TV company might report a drop in advertising but that slack is taken up elsewhere. Also, firms are more canny re advertising these days and if their adverts do not reach such and such target audience then they demand part of their cash back. Actually, in a downturn there is usually a blip upwards in advertising spend as more companys need to advertise in order to attract business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjamin Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 and deja moo - we've heard all the vi bullsh1t before Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zorn Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 1989: interest rates between 13% and 15%, peaking at an increase of nearly double the lowest point in the previous year. CPI inflation between 4.8% and 5.5%. 2005: interest rates between 4.5% and 4.75%, peaking at an increase of just over a quarter since the lowest point in the previous year. CPI inflation between 1.6% and 2.5%. They don't look very similar to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
munimula Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 1989: interest rates between 13% and 15%, peaking at an increase of nearly double the lowest point in the previous year. CPI inflation between 4.8% and 5.5%. 2005: interest rates between 4.5% and 4.75%, peaking at an increase of just over a quarter since the lowest point in the previous year. CPI inflation between 1.6% and 2.5%. They don't look very similar to me. And neither do the debt levels. Work it out, it's not difficult. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted October 19, 2005 Author Share Posted October 19, 2005 Marina I have friends who work in recruitment in the following sectors - IT, Banking, Accountancy and New Media admittedly they are all London based but they are all very busy and in my view if people are recruiting then things really are not that bad. Yes consumers are thin on the ground but the economy if far bigger than them, I still think GDP will start to improve and IR's will be moving upwards next year. All service sectors - all specialist and, as you said, all in that micro-economy called London. I have a friend who is a pukka chartered accountant. Made redundant a while ago. Took 6 months of pain and worry to get a new job - in London. IT? Well depends what your skills are - if they are not very high your money hasn't gone up in real terms since the dot com disaster. Banking - don't know - keep reading about the IT jobs going to India. When lending starts to drop the redundancies will kick in. It only takes one big bank to announce a 1000 jobs going and it knocks on through the whole grubby business. Even in the last recession people still recruited. No-one is daft enough to think it stops. Some firms will grow in any conditions. But, once the balance tips - we have had negative wage pressures for a long time. Wonder how long before we get the old 'you can take a pay cut or be made redundant' offers. Lots of people had that experience last time round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedsprings Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 I'm an accountant in public practice, and would add that we tend to deal with things in arrears - we deal with the accounting for transactions sometimes up to 2 years after they have happened. Thus, it took until 1992/93 in the last recession before the redundancies started happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTBagain Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 I'm an accountant in public practice, and would add that we tend to deal with things in arrears - we deal with the accounting for transactions sometimes up to 2 years after they have happened. Thus, it took until 1992/93 in the last recession before the redundancies started happening. There is an interesting point made by mad'un in this post; http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=17644 he notes that many of his customers (food and drinks industry) have unofficially stated they are looking to lay folk off in the New Year. If we take the slow down as starting in the June last year, being lead by the house market slow down then that would be pretty close to your 2 year delay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tempest Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 I have been telling others that, as a consumer/employee/general population member, it feels a lot like 1989 right now. The retailers story is dire and if Xmas is as bad as they say then we are very much in 1989/90 territory for the local consumer economy. My recollection was that the froth came off the feelgood factor in 1989 and consumer spending overall slowed considerably since 1988. Interesting to see from the ONS ( http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/Nscl.asp?...lRank=1&Rank=48 ) in the RSI quarterly retail sales figures for the years 1986-1992 just how things moved on the high street. Things slowed down there well before the recession years of 1991-93. An indicator? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libitina Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 I went to the shopping centre by my sister today. Only 2 months before Xmas and plenty of stores had sales on, and the sales assistants are either standing around looking bored or being pushy. Carpark was much quieter than usual too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmisery Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 the musics nothing like 89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libitina Posted October 19, 2005 Share Posted October 19, 2005 the musics nothing like 89 621 Kylie Minogue & Jason Donovan Especially For You 7/1/1989 622 Marc Almond with Gene Pitney Somethings Gotten Hold Of My Heart 28/1/1989 623 Simple Minds Belfast Child 25/2/1989 624 Jason Donovan Too Many Broken Hearts 11/3/1989 625 Madonna Like A Prayer 25/3/1989 626 Bangles Eternal Flame 15/4/1989 627 Kylie Minogue Hand On Your Heart 13/5/1989 628 Gerry Marsden, Paul McCartney, Holly Johnson & Christians Ferry 'Cross The Mersey 20/5/1989 629 Jason Donovan Sealed With A Kiss 10/6/1989 630 Soul II Soul featuring Caron Wheeler Back To Life 24/6/1989 631 Sonia You'll Never Stop Me Loving You 22/7/1989 632 Jive Bunny & The Mastermixers Swing The Mood 5/8/1989 633 Black Box Ride On Time 9/9/1989 634 Jive Bunny & The Mastermixers That's What I Like 21/10/1989 635 Lisa Stansfield All Around The World 11/11/1989 636 New Kids On The Block You Got It (The Right Stuff) 25/11/1989 637 Jive Bunny & The Mastermixers Let's Party 16/12/1989 638 Band Aid II Do They Know It's Christmas 23/12/1989 Hmmmm...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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