CleverBear Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 New article on the Telegraph website: London property bubble 'about to burst' The London property bubble could be about to burst, with the number of "distressed" sellers in the capital rising for the first time, according to one property company. PPR Estates said it had seen rising number of inquiries from property owners in London looking for a quick sale below the current market price. It said rising unemployment, an increase in the number of company liquidations and a collapse in buyer interest – particularly in areas hit by the recent riots – were to blame. Nick Hopkinson, the director of PPR Estates, said that over the past few years there had been a rising number of "distressed" sellers in other parts of the country, but London had appeared to be immune as prices continued to rise. This has changed though within the past two months, with the company now reporting a jump in the number of inquiries from both residential and commercial property owners in the capital who need to access the equity in their home quickly. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/8746833/London-property-bubble-about-to-burst.html Lets not forget that investment banks are laying off thousands of staff right now. This will be sure to hit the london market hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeTrader Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Lets not forget that investment banks are laying off thousands of staff right now. This will be sure to hit the london market hard. It's also hitting the second homes market, particularly in Devon and Cornwall. From the FT on Friday: Second-home owners forced to cut prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CleverBear Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It's also hitting the second homes market, particularly in Devon and Cornwall. From the FT on Friday: Second-home owners forced to cut prices It seems that phase 1: asking price reductions is in full swing. This month may of been the first month when these reductions are filtering through to lower house prices. This is potentially very exciting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Lets not forget that investment banks are laying off thousands of staff right now. This will be sure to hit the london market hard. I am so glad that I listened to my gut instincts, combined with my knowledge of the economy from being on here, and did not take work in London offered in the last few months at a couple of investment banks. I feared that lay-offs were coming. Last thing you need is a 12 or 18 month lease on some flat in London and then be fired. Having said that, London is probably the best place to pick up more work - or is it? Are things in London now becoming as bad as elsewhere in the UK? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CleverBear Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I am so glad that I listened to my gut instincts, combined with my knowledge of the economy from being on here, and did not take work in London offered in the last few months at a couple of investment banks. I feared that lay-offs were coming. Last thing you need is a 12 or 18 month lease on some flat in London and then be fired. Having said that, London is probably the best place to pick up more work - or is it? Are things in London now becoming as bad as elsewhere in the UK? Alot of the jobs in london are based on the finance industry. Directly and indirectly. I think this industry is in for a shock soon. The lay offs are really extreme right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Alot of the jobs in london are based on the finance industry. Directly and indirectly. I think this industry is in for a shock soon. The lay offs are really extreme right now. Back in Jan to March there was a lot of hiring with superb money being offered on new IT projects. Now I am hearing that most of those projects have just been canned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Alot of the jobs in london are based on the finance industry. Directly and indirectly. I think this industry is in for a shock soon. The lay offs are really extreme right now. Laid off permies means opportunities to pick up shorter term contract work so not a total loss. But I'd guess that contractors are less likely to splash out on property and are unlikely to be sitting on top of property that they need to sell once they lose an income so 'bad' (i.e good) for house prices. If London prices do start to show a falling trend I wonder if it will spook some of the foreigners (who saw London as a safe place to park money) into selling? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 If London prices do start to show a falling trend I wonder if it will spook some of the foreigners (who saw London as a safe place to park money) into selling? I suspect TV images of bands of roaming thugs has already done that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 So why will utilities go up again next year? It wont happen as the global economy is slowing down not speeding up. And the £ is no longer devaluing at all. Even with rate rises on the horizon its seen as a resonably safe bet. I actually agree with this. Next Jan, the VAT rise is going to drop out of the inflation figures. At least in the official figures, I think inflation sub 3% will be a reality in the next six months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CleverBear Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I actually agree with this. Next Jan, the VAT rise is going to drop out of the inflation figures. At least in the official figures, I think inflation sub 3% will be a reality in the next six months. Agreed. I dont think we will touch 5% either. Even with these huge utility rises. Then we should see some significant decreases in inflation early next year. The unfortunate thing is this could allow the MPC to print more money, and boost the prices of assetts like housing again. Thats why I think it is crucial that we get some substantial drops in the next 6 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey shark Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 August - 2011 - £161,743 July - 2004 - £161,466 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuffy Chuffnell Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 August - 2011 - £161,743 July - 2004 - £161,466 But.. but.. house prices only ever go up! The lady on the telly told me so! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 But.. but.. house prices only ever go up! The lady on the telly told me so! They have. £50 a year, or roughly £1 a week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Brown Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It's also hitting the second homes market, particularly in Devon and Cornwall. From the FT on Friday: Second-home owners forced to cut prices Thank-you, thank-you, thank-you. Great news! Thank-you FT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I actually agree with this. Next Jan, the VAT rise is going to drop out of the inflation figures. At least in the official figures, I think inflation sub 3% will be a reality in the next six months. 3.6p a litre extra fuel duty Jan 1st 2012 There's always something.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHERWICK Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 They have. £50 a year, or roughly £1 a week. Unfortunately it's only £40 a year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 3.6p a litre extra fuel duty Jan 1st 2012 There's always something.... Fair point. Fuel prices have been higher this year than they are now though? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Unfortunately it's only £40 a year I'll blame that on my solar powered calculator and the gloomy weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHERWICK Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I'll blame that on my solar powered calculator and the gloomy weather. Are you using the same calculator as Merve & the MPC? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inflating Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I think this is key. Where I am in north london prices have been awfully resilient - above 2007 peaks. In the last couple of months I have seen lots of reductions (although from grossly overvalued asking prices). Hopefully this will be the start of it round here and make the national indices even more gloomy once London is also falling. As an ex norf lundunner I wouldn't live there again if they paid me, I really wouldn't, it's just an over-crowded sh!thole as is much of London these days, the last few days of London suburbs being worth living in was the mid 90s and, some would argue, even possibly the early 80s Wild horses couldn't drag me back there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuffy Chuffnell Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Are you using the same calculator as Merve & the MPC? They use a calculator? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHERWICK Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 They use a calculator? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 So why will utilities go up again next year? It wont happen as the global economy is slowing down not speeding up. And the £ is no longer devaluing at all. Even with rate rises on the horizon its seen as a resonably safe bet. You don't actually watch currency movements then? It's been plunging. Since 19th August US $ -3.9% Yen -2.6% Can -3.8% Aus -5.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Fair point. Fuel prices have been higher this year than they are now though? Recently oil dropped by over 10% in dollars but all I saw was a brief 2p a litre drop that has since been reversed even though the oil price is still in the $80s If we get more QE it will go higher and sterling is currently dropping off a cliff which doesn't augur well for prices next Jan when we get the 3.6p rise in duty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Recently oil dropped by over 10% in dollars but all I saw was a brief 2p a litre drop that has since been reversed even though the oil price is still in the $80s If we get more QE it will go higher and sterling is currently dropping off a cliff which doesn't augur well for prices next Jan when we get the 3.6p rise in duty. If more QE comes, then all inflation bets are off. If the Euro goes down, might that not give a short-term boost to Sterling? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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