Mass Starvation In The Uk

[cartimandua51]

Prior to World War Two, the UK was at its lowest level of food self-sufficiency at any point during the 20th century, and it had to try and rebuild food self reliance in a very short period of time. It needed to get people growing food on any spare patch of ground, it needed to revolutionise output from the nation’s farms, and it needed to ensure that people were still able to cook healthy meals in spite of rationing and the unavailability of some key foods. ....

Section 1, ‘Dig for Victory’ focuses on the revolution in food production that took place, both on the nation’s farms, and in the backgardens and allotments. Between 1939 and 1945, food imports to the UK were halved and there was an 80% increase in the amount of land in cultivation.

From a review of a book by Jane Fearnley-Whittingstall resulting from her researches at the War Museum.

I think the point here is that a lot of marginal land and "amenity" land (eg Hyde Park) can be put into production in emergency, and when combined with both rationing and compulsory labour (Land Girls etc) can ensure that starvation doesn't happen, though diets are monotonous. IIRC, the places in Europe that did have starvation were those where the available food was commandeered by the Germans.

[chris25]

That's very naive! Have a look at the chart. 400 years ago average yield was about 7% of what it is now! Population of UK in 1700 was only about 5 million. If we didn't have oil we really would starve - oil is an essential part of achieving that increase in yield that has allowed world population to explode. However, agricultural production uses about 10% of the oil that we consume so there's plenty of headroom there, we could easily live without airline travel which at the moment uses about as much oil as farming does, for example.

Modern agriculture essentially turns fossil fuel into food- literally.

When you adopt organic agriculture on an arable farm, your yield instantly drops by 25% (before a drop in crop yield is taken into account)as you have to leave 1 field out of 4 fallow, as part of a healthy crop rotation.

So yes oil is everything.

[Self Employed Youth]

I joined this forum just over a year ago, back when I was working in the food factory, where I worked for just over 6months. I quit to sign on, and did 8 months of dole, the stability of dole (lower but regular as clockwork) vs agency work in the factory was beneficial to me, my mental health improved. I'm now working again, but I'm only £1-2k NET better off annually than I was on the dole, like when I was in the factory, but the work is far far easier. I'd work in the food factory again if wages rose and stable employment was offered I suppose.

At the factory, it worked out, for every worker, enough food was produced for 300 people.

The factory is now closing. Production will move, the factory will close, and productivity will be higher. 200 jobs gone, the majority of which are moving to Scotland (highly automated factory just been built), we processed Cumbrian livestock in Yorkshire you see.

The funny thing was though, productivity at our factory was quite high. Some idiot then got employed and it began falling (who it took managers 6 months to get rid off, thought he could up productivity by cutting staff, or forcing them to work less hours a week, by cutting shifts - and agency workers haven't much choice). Well, the best agency workers all quit. productivity fell a lot.

There is more than enough labour going around for our society to ensure sufficient food supply. I suppose we have malinvestment.

I suppose investment in food production shall yield a high reward. Food itself will enter a bubble, with mass starvation, plenty of deaths in the poorest parts of the world and a glut of food thereafter.

[Self Employed Youth]

Before its hyperinflation and economic collapse Zimbabwe was known as "the breadbasket of Africa".

Ukraine has the most fertile soil in the world, their flag is a field under the sky. 4 million people once starved to death in Ukraine.

If there is mass starvation it is because they caused it, intentionally or unintentionally. Nothing to do with the land.

Chernobyl is about to experience an agricultural boom. Funding and projects are in place.

[winkie]

I wouldn't call it food.

No food should be wasted....one checkout person said they couldn't believe the food that their shop threw out, I asked her if the staff were allowed to buy it at a reduced rate? they said they were not allowed to buy it, do they give it to feed the pigs I asked like they used to do? they said, they were not allowed to do that it went into land fill...outrageous.

[Self Employed Youth]

No food should be wasted....one checkout person said they couldn't believe the food that their shop threw out, I asked her if the staff were allowed to buy it at a reduced rate? they said they were not allowed to buy it, do they give it to feed the pigs I asked like they used to do? they said, they were not allowed to do that it went into land fill...outrageous.

In the food factory the offcuts of bacon went back to feed the pigs

(In large plastic barrels suitable for FLT/lorry transportation, by the tonne, however slightly larger than a standard 1*1.2 pallet.

Edited May 19, 2011 by Formerly Unemployed Youth

[winkie]

In the food factory the offcuts of bacon went back to feed the pigs

I thought they sold that as bacon bits.

[winkie]

You wont have much choice as food gets more expensive... meat will almost certainly lead the way, and people will simply eat less meat to save money.

I suspect it's already happeneding now, what with product sizes and quality dropping, I expect you average meat-based supermarket product has 10% less meat in it than a few years ago.

....yes, I agree meat can and will get more expensive along with fish......less meat will have to be mixed with more veg, not always a bad thing, take for instance making a nice batch of Cornish pasties, very little meat is required just homemade pastry, a little chopped meat some sliced potato, swede and onion lots of pepper only costs a few pence to make and freezes easily until ready to cook with some baked beans.

[Lagarde's Drift]

You are all wrong. I've been reliably informed that our supply of cheap fish n chips will last our entire life times. Stop worrying.

[matroskin]

When the price of food rises the farms will produce, simple as. And if there's no oil for the tractors there's an army of graduates ready to fill the gap.

Please go back to post #1 in this thread and check what was the per-hectare productivity _before_ tractors were invented.

Also, no oil - no fertiliser.

Army of graduates will flee before anyone else because they are young and English is spoken worldwide.

[Kurt Barlow]

Something to lighten your mood this morning

Call me as "doom and gloom" as you like, it is easy to dismiss bad news by sticking your fingers in you ears, but this threat could even be worked out by a 10 year old.

The UK population is now around 61 million.

In the past few years it has grown at a terrifying rate.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1388472/UK-immigration-boosted-population-1-75m-8-years.html

The ONS has put it at 1.75 million+ in 8 years, but they have no idea of illegal immigration figures.

Meanwhile, UK self sufficiency has been dropping since 1983 despite agricultural output increasing since then.

Yields have now hit a peak.

UK self sufficiency of food stuffs stands at 59%. That is the rate it was at in the 1960's. It is easy to say there was no mass starvation in the 60's but economically speaking we were a power house then. We were in trade surplus throughout the period, had a stronger currency and had one of the worlds strongest manufacturing base.

Also one has to remember that agriculture was far less intensive. Farmers still worked their fields which hadn't changed size for hundreds of years. You can see from my graph that UK wheat yields were half that of today. Agriculture was much more organic and localized. Thousands upon thousands of local diary farms existed. Agriculture was sustainable.

So really there are several reasons why I believe the UK will suffer from starvation soon:

- our currency will become worthless, disabling us from buying imports

- our agricultural system is too centralized, oil intensive and complicated- i.e. it is fragile.

- our population is growing at a rate which cannot be supported by agricultural or economic production

- the oil that enabled great increases in agricultural yield is becoming more expensive, and running out.

I have been pondering this whilst looking around an 11 hectare (mix of pasture and forest), nine bedroom property in Mazury (Poland). Could have all this in exchange for my slave box in Cambridge....

[Tiger Woods?]

Your analysis is flawed. You assume that in the event of a economic collapse that the nation will still gorge itself on Peruvian avocados Israeli Jaffas?

The UK can feed itself, perhaps not with the variety you seen in the shops but people couldnt afford waht they currently do in the scenario you describe (which obvisouly isnt going to happen anyway).

Without relying on oil and the very best modern agriculture, there is not enough arable land to do so. Not an immediate issue, but one well worth thinking baout looking 50+ years out.

Edited May 19, 2011 by Tiger Woods?

[Self Employed Youth]

Without relying on oil and the very best modern agriculture, there is not enough arable land to do so. Not an immediate issue, but one well worth thinking baout looking 50+ years out.

Hydroponics, aeroponics...

[tallguy]

Your analysis is flawed. You assume that in the event of a economic collapse that the nation will still gorge itself on Peruvian avocados Israeli Jaffas?

The UK can feed itself, perhaps not with the variety you seen in the shops but people couldnt afford waht they currently do in the scenario you describe (which obvisouly isnt going to happen anyway).

Using industrial farming methods it takes over an acre to feed a person

Do a google search and find out how many acreas of arable land there is in the Uk. Then cross reference that with the current UK population size.

We were only barely able to feed ourselves (with ration books) in the Second world War. There was only 30 odd million of us back then.

Without hydrocarbon-based fertilisers and hydrocarbon-based industrial farming methods, there is no way at all that we could feed ourselves in the UK today.

Edited May 19, 2011 by tallguy

[Self Employed Youth]

Using industrial farming methods it takes over an acre to feed a person

Do a google search and find out how many acreas of arable land there is in the Uk. Then cross reference that with the current UK population size.

We were only barely able to feed ourselves (with ration books) in the Second world War. There was only 30 odd million of us back then.

Without hydrocarbon-based fertilisers and hydrocarbon-based industrial farming methods, there is no way at all that we could feed ourselves in the UK today.

Farm up!

Aeroonics and hydroponics, you can vaslty reduce fertilisr and water use etc.

[tallguy]

Farm up!

Aeroonics and hydroponics, you can vaslty reduce fertilisr and water use etc.

Aeroonics and hydroponics are extremely energy expensive if you want to industrially scale them up to the level required for feeding a nation.

The only way to mitigate the above is if it is massively labour intensive. Don't get me wrong, this kind of farming will be forced on us.

But it still wont be enough.

Edited May 19, 2011 by tallguy

[Riedquat]

One other point I havent seen mentioned (although I have just skimmed the thread), the native population has been in decline for a number of years with I believe a reversal when the financial crisis kicked off a few years back. Economic migrants will migrant to the next economic hotspot, just following the money.

If the next spot is happy enough to let them in. Which means most of us are probably stuck here when the country has to admit that it's bust.

[nixy]

Using industrial farming methods it takes over an acre to feed a person

Do a google search and find out how many acreas of arable land there is in the Uk. Then cross reference that with the current UK population size.

We were only barely able to feed ourselves (with ration books) in the Second world War. There was only 30 odd million of us back then.

Without hydrocarbon-based fertilisers and hydrocarbon-based industrial farming methods, there is no way at all that we could feed ourselves in the UK today.

Using industrial farming methods it takes over an acre to feed a person

Farmer on farming prog the other morning saying yields could be down by half this year due to lack of rain....... That was from 8 tonne / acre down to 4 tonne / acre......

4000 Kg / 365 days = 10 Kg per person per day.

1 person could survive comfortably on a tenth of that ie the equivalent of a 1 Kg loaf per person per day. ??

In other words 10 people per acre ... ..... not 1.

??

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Let the Daily Mail enlighten you.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1190392/Is-future-food-Japanese-plant-factories-churn-immaculate-vegetables-24-hours-day.html

Plant Factories.

One other point I havent seen mentioned (although I have just skimmed the thread), the native population has been in decline for a number of years with I believe a reversal when the financial crisis kicked off a few years back. Economic migrants will migrant to the next economic hotspot, just following the money.

As mentioned elsewhere behaviour habits will change, whats in Vogue today is in Hello Goodbye tomorrow so to speak and thats without falling for the "Bollinger " Monsanto et al would have you believe about improved yields from GM food crops.

Edit: If you worry about oil just go nuclear with Thorium of which we have plenty in this country as well so we have all the juice we need to run these plant factories as well.

At last a use for those empty shop units !

I'll be investing even more in tin foil, before they use it all on covering the walls.

Edited May 20, 2011 by Saving For a Space Ship

[chris25]

Farmer on farming prog the other morning saying yields could be down by half this year due to lack of rain....... That was from 8 tonne / acre down to 4 tonne / acre......

4000 Kg / 365 days = 10 Kg per person per day.

1 person could survive comfortably on a tenth of that ie the equivalent of a 1 Kg loaf per person per day. ??

In other words 10 people per acre ... ..... not 1.

??

This years harvest is expected to be awful across the USA, Europe and parts of Asia due to drought.

Wheat is going to go sky high.

When measured in worthless sterling it will rocket into space. It is at £200 a ton now; a price people will look book on with amazement in the future.

I agree with people on this forum when they say that that price is still relatively cheap.

In the 1800's that much wheat would have cost 3 months salary (in modern fiat £3000)but life was far less complex then. People paid for food and booze and little else. No car to pay for, designer clothes, shopping, electricity, water, internet, mobile, mortgage etc etc.

If people had to pay 1800's prices on wheat in this age then essentially modern society would breakdown, and virtually no one would have a job any more as most jobs are based upon consumption of tat.

This is the problem. As the commodities rise, less is spent on consumer tat. As a result the economy deflates and the government looses tax income, the government then prints money. The money they print becomes worthless, commodities rise as a result.....

The ultimate catch 22.

[winkie]

You are all wrong. I've been reliably informed that our supply of cheap fish n chips will last our entire life times. Stop worrying.

......cheap to some is expensive to others and out of the question for most.

[thod]

That was from 8 tonne / acre down to 4 tonne / acre......

I think you mean a hectare. 8 tonnes of wheat per acre would be huge.

[Tiger Woods?]

Hydroponics, aeroponics...

Fantasy.

[nixy]

I think you mean a hectare. 8 tonnes of wheat per acre would be huge.

Yes you're right.

That'd mean an acre would (could) support 4 people?

[bricor mortis]

Theres loads of land if push comes to shove, I read somewhere about Havana now growing one fifth of its food in urban areas in response to a percieved food shortage.

As and when food becomes scarce for us ( if ever ) I imagine Scotland has enough rural space to keep us in potatoes for ever for instance, I would imagine expanding global populations will reshape our dietary habits though as beef is very inefficient as a food source compared to other protein sources.