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chris25

Mass Starvation In The Uk

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Something to lighten your mood this morning :D

Call me as "doom and gloom" as you like, it is easy to dismiss bad news by sticking your fingers in you ears, but this threat could even be worked out by a 10 year old.

The UK population is now around 61 million.

In the past few years it has grown at a terrifying rate.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1388472/UK-immigration-boosted-population-1-75m-8-years.html

The ONS has put it at 1.75 million+ in 8 years, but they have no idea of illegal immigration figures.

Meanwhile, UK self sufficiency has been dropping since 1983 despite agricultural output increasing since then.

defra-uk-selfsufficiency.png

Yields have now hit a peak.

1367_7.jpg

UK self sufficiency of food stuffs stands at 59%. That is the rate it was at in the 1960's. It is easy to say there was no mass starvation in the 60's but economically speaking we were a power house then. We were in trade surplus throughout the period, had a stronger currency and had one of the worlds strongest manufacturing base.

Also one has to remember that agriculture was far less intensive. Farmers still worked their fields which hadn't changed size for hundreds of years. You can see from my graph that UK wheat yields were half that of today. Agriculture was much more organic and localized. Thousands upon thousands of local diary farms existed. Agriculture was sustainable.

So really there are several reasons why I believe the UK will suffer from starvation soon:

- our currency will become worthless, disabling us from buying imports

- our agricultural system is too centralized, oil intensive and complicated- i.e. it is fragile.

- our population is growing at a rate which cannot be supported by agricultural or economic production

- the oil that enabled great increases in agricultural yield is becoming more expensive, and running out.

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You don't factor in a couple of things.

As life in the UK gets worse, those who can leave WILL leave, tons of graduates are leaving for ESL to be paid a pittance but live over there in considerable comfort. Thus reducing the population substantially.

With the collaspe there is less reason and no wage arbitage for people to play with so economic migrants also leave, nobody emigrates to Somalia or North Korea do they?

Ireland is a fair example, mass emigration when times are tough. Look at Russia today and they have reports on Greece, Italy, Spain etc... the youth can't find jobs so they plan to leave. A lot of them want to leave to go to the UK.

Active government population control, not one child policy, I mean war, a big infantry one which is designed to maximise casulties on all sides. That could easily cause 50 million casulties. Leaving the country with just the boomers and pensioners who are they stuck up shit creek without a paddle.

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Something to lighten your mood this morning :D

Call me as "doom and gloom" as you like, it is easy to dismiss bad news by sticking your fingers in you ears, but this threat could even be worked out by a 10 year old.

The UK population is now around 61 million.

In the past few years it has grown at a terrifying rate.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1388472/UK-immigration-boosted-population-1-75m-8-years.html

The ONS has put it at 1.75 million+ in 8 years, but they have no idea of illegal immigration figures.

Meanwhile, UK self sufficiency has been dropping since 1983 despite agricultural output increasing since then.

defra-uk-selfsufficiency.png

Yields have now hit a peak.

1367_7.jpg

UK self sufficiency of food stuffs stands at 59%. That is the rate it was at in the 1960's. It is easy to say there was no mass starvation in the 60's but economically speaking we were a power house then. We were in trade surplus throughout the period, had a stronger currency and had one of the worlds strongest manufacturing base.

Also one has to remember that agriculture was far less intensive. Farmers still worked their fields which hadn't changed size for hundreds of years. You can see from my graph that UK wheat yields were half that of today. Agriculture was much more organic and localized. Thousands upon thousands of local diary farms existed. Agriculture was sustainable.

So really there are several reasons why I believe the UK will suffer from starvation soon:

- our currency will become worthless, disabling us from buying imports

- our agricultural system is too centralized, oil intensive and complicated- i.e. it is fragile.

- our population is growing at a rate which cannot be supported by agricultural or economic production

- the oil that enabled great increases in agricultural yield is becoming more expensive, and running out.

If things get that serious, whoever came in will leave as easily, UK border is fully open outbound. Polish proved it during 2008-2010 when sizeable numbers returned to Polska homelands.

It's autochthons who will be stuck with unrepayable mortgages around their necks. Before one points out that currency will depreciate too - well, incomes will drop faster than exchange rate.

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If things get that serious, whoever came in will leave as easily, UK border is fully open outbound. Polish proved it during 2008-2010 when sizeable numbers returned to Polska homelands.

It's autochthons who will be stuck with unrepayable mortgages around their necks. Before one points out that currency will depreciate too - well, incomes will drop faster than exchange rate.

Some of these people may well leave as well, like in Dubai, people with massive debts cars and flats simply abandoned them at the airport. When TSHTF only the really stupid people hold onto their assets clinging onto them while it destroys them. Again Ricky the ESL bloke, he has pretty much run away and defaulted on his student debts as he left the UK and doesn't intend to return ever. Thats only 30K.

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You guys need to get out to work and do something useful with your lives instead of wasting it posting this tripe ! :rolleyes:

Was that aimed at yourself as much as anyone else?

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Something to lighten your mood this morning :D

Call me as "doom and gloom" as you like, it is easy to dismiss bad news by sticking your fingers in you ears, but this threat could even be worked out by a 10 year old.

The UK population is now around 61 million.

In the past few years it has grown at a terrifying rate.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1388472/UK-immigration-boosted-population-1-75m-8-years.html

The ONS has put it at 1.75 million+ in 8 years, but they have no idea of illegal immigration figures.

Meanwhile, UK self sufficiency has been dropping since 1983 despite agricultural output increasing since then.

defra-uk-selfsufficiency.png

Yields have now hit a peak.

1367_7.jpg

UK self sufficiency of food stuffs stands at 59%. That is the rate it was at in the 1960's. It is easy to say there was no mass starvation in the 60's but economically speaking we were a power house then. We were in trade surplus throughout the period, had a stronger currency and had one of the worlds strongest manufacturing base.

Also one has to remember that agriculture was far less intensive. Farmers still worked their fields which hadn't changed size for hundreds of years. You can see from my graph that UK wheat yields were half that of today. Agriculture was much more organic and localized. Thousands upon thousands of local diary farms existed. Agriculture was sustainable.

So really there are several reasons why I believe the UK will suffer from starvation soon:

- our currency will become worthless, disabling us from buying imports

- our agricultural system is too centralized, oil intensive and complicated- i.e. it is fragile.

- our population is growing at a rate which cannot be supported by agricultural or economic production

- the oil that enabled great increases in agricultural yield is becoming more expensive, and running out.

Your analysis is flawed. You assume that in the event of a economic collapse that the nation will still gorge itself on Peruvian avocados Israeli Jaffas?

The UK can feed itself, perhaps not with the variety you seen in the shops but people couldnt afford waht they currently do in the scenario you describe (which obvisouly isnt going to happen anyway).

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Sorry, but this is nonsense.

A metric tonne of wheat at the moment costs about £250. Average UK weekly wage is £450..... given that a tonne of wheat will keep someone fed for more than a year I think we'll be ok! Also we have this curious thing called 'trade' - it's why Londoners don't starve even though London has no arable land....

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The UK must import some foods because they only grow in tropical climates. It imports others simply because it is cheaper to that than grow it here. The 60% domestic production figure does not imply that that is the UK capacity. The UK has vast amounts of land that is simply not used because it is not economic to do so. A drive across the country will show you endless green pastures which could be ploughed. If the currency should collapse making imports too expensive, then this would be used. It takes a very small piece of land to grow all your own veg yet very few gardens are used for this.

A much bigger risk to food security would come from an oil embargo. Without tractors, fertilizers and pesticides the current form of agriculture would collapse.

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Sorry, but this is nonsense.

A metric tonne of wheat at the moment costs about £250. Average UK weekly wage is £450..... given that a tonne of wheat will keep someone fed for more than a year I think we'll be ok! Also we have this curious thing called 'trade' - it's why Londoners don't starve even though London has no arable land....

+1

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The UK must import some foods because they only grow in tropical climates. It imports others simply because it is cheaper to that than grow it here. The 60% domestic production figure does not imply that that is the UK capacity. The UK has vast amounts of land that is simply not used because it is not economic to do so. A drive across the country will show you endless green pastures which could be ploughed. If the currency should collapse making imports too expensive, then this would be used. It takes a very small piece of land to grow all your own veg yet very few gardens are used for this.

A much bigger risk to food security would come from an oil embargo. Without tractors, fertilizers and pesticides the current form of agriculture would collapse.

You use the word must in the first sentence when it should be chooses, go back 400 years and we just didn't eat oranges for example. Equally with global warming we could start to grow some stuff we have never previously been able to, it would require more complex irrigation than we currently use but the amount of flooding we have had in recent years would suggest the water is there if we wanted to harness it.

I'd agree oil is a factor but as above it was possible to far the land 400 years ago with out such problems, much more labor intensive but a shift from people from the cities back to the country would sort that out.

I'm out in the country almost every weekend and as you say there is tons of land doing nothing. In fact it's worse than that a friend runs a business on farmland, next to it is a large apple orchard most years the apples just go to waste as it's not profitable to even bother selling them.

Edited by gilf

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If things get that serious, whoever came in will leave as easily, UK border is fully open outbound. Polish proved it during 2008-2010 when sizeable numbers returned to Polska homelands.

It's autochthons who will be stuck with unrepayable mortgages around their necks. Before one points out that currency will depreciate too - well, incomes will drop faster than exchange rate.

My wife's family farmed for 60 years. They had a milking herd and grew wheat and ran a market garden. The same farm today is used for grazing sheep for the simple reason that there's money in lamb and little else. Successive governments have increased incentive to produce nothing from the land, not more. Therefore your argument is extremely weak and poorly researched.

When the price of food rises the farms will produce, simple as. And if there's no oil for the tractors there's an army of graduates ready to fill the gap.

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I'd agree oil is a factor but as above it was possible to far the land 400 years ago with out such problems, much more labor intensive but a shift from people from the cities back to the country would sort that out.

That's very naive! Have a look at the chart. 400 years ago average yield was about 7% of what it is now! Population of UK in 1700 was only about 5 million. If we didn't have oil we really would starve - oil is an essential part of achieving that increase in yield that has allowed world population to explode. However, agricultural production uses about 10% of the oil that we consume so there's plenty of headroom there, we could easily live without airline travel which at the moment uses about as much oil as farming does, for example.

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The agriculture industry run on petroleum and it's derivatives.

As Britain's indigenous supply is on the wain, it will make the cost of fertilizers, pesticides, process chemicals, diesel, everything go up.

We also create about 10% of our own food....

I don't see that as being a difficult relationship.

I've even read of farmers going to seminars and learning to utilize oxen, in America, today, because they cannot afford to plough using diesel.

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The UK population is now around 61 million.

In the past few years it has grown at a terrifying rate.

...

So really there are several reasons why I believe the UK will suffer from starvation soon:

- our currency will become worthless, disabling us from buying imports

- our agricultural system is too centralized, oil intensive and complicated- i.e. it is fragile.

- our population is growing at a rate which cannot be supported by agricultural or economic production

- the oil that enabled great increases in agricultural yield is becoming more expensive, and running out.

The population is growing, but the number of fields in which you can grow wheat is not.

If this carries on there will be an infinite number of people, and still the same amount of wheat, so they will all starve.

This logic doesn't work, because it assumes growth with no behavioural change. :rolleyes:

In Victorian times, people had 6-8 children, expecting a few might die. Now almost all children survive, so we have fewer.

If there is less food, people will have fewer children and/or move to other countries.

Behaviour changes.

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I'm out in the country almost every weekend and as you say there is tons of land doing nothing. In fact it's worse than that a friend runs a business on farmland, next to it is a large apple orchard most years the apples just go to waste as it's not profitable to even bother selling them.

A field isn't unused just because there's only grass in it. There's very little unused land in the UK (that could be used; you're never going to be able to grow anything on the top of Ben Nevis). You could get more out of some land if it wasn't used for grazing or meadow for sileage, and don't mind a monotonous meat-free diet (sounds awful), but it's not unused.

Edit to add that anyway, there's still no benefit from population growth other than in the very short term, and it creates a lot of problems. We're already suffering some quality of life ones (the country would be much pleasanter to live in if there were quite a lot fewer people in it), and sooner or later real practical ones will be hit. But since UK population changes are largely immigration-driven these days it's arguable a self-regulating mechanism - the worse it gets the fewer people will want to come here.

Edited by Riedquat

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We all eat too many calories anyway and do a lot less. You only have to look at film clips from the war, or even the 60 and 70's to see how much thinner the populace was.

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The UK can easily feed itself, we just need to eat less meat and more fish and grain.

Currently we grow grain and catch fish, then grind them up together and feed them to cows/sheep/pigs/chickens. And the ratio is more than 10 to 1.... 10kgs of grain/fish are needed to produce 1kg of meat.

Of course, whether there will be enough left of society to organise large scale food production and distribution in 13 MONTHS time is a different issue.

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A field isn't unused just because there's only grass in it. There's very little unused land in the UK (that could be used; you're never going to be able to grow anything on the top of Ben Nevis). You could get more out of some land if it wasn't used for grazing or meadow for sileage, and don't mind a monotonous meat-free diet (sounds awful), but it's not unused.

I have mates with parents who are paid not to farm here in Scotland.

100's of acres of perfectly good arable land, just filled with weeds, and they get their monthly EU cheques.

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If it gets that bad we will always have Global cuisine. An Immigrant will feed a family of four for a week.

Indian or chinese love?

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Guest eight

The UK population is now around 61 million.

I'd bet good money it's nearer 81 million.

eight

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I have mates with parents who are paid not to farm here in Scotland.

100's of acres of perfectly good arable land, just filled with weeds, and they get their monthly EU cheques.

Nothing to do with being paid to leave fields to recover and curb over farming then?!?

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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